Mapping the interface of poverty, emerging
markets and zoonoses
EcoHealth Conference, Kunming China 2012
Delia Grace
International Livestock Research Institute
International Livestock Research Institute
700 full time staff-1000 total
100 scientists & researchers
54% from 22 developing
countries
more than 30 scientific
disciplines
2012 budget USD 60 million
ILRI works with a range of
research & development
partners
across 7 CGIAR research
programs
•a member of the CGIAR Consortium, ILRI conducts livestock, food and
environmental research
to help alleviate poverty
and improve food security, health & nutrition,
while protecting the natural resource base.
Mali
Nigeria
Mozambique
Kenya
Ethiopia
India
China
Laos
Vietnam
Thailand
Mapping poverty and zoonoses hotspots
• To present data and expert knowledge on
poverty and zoonoses hotspots
…….to prioritise study areas in emerging
livestock systems in the developing world,
……where prevention of zoonotic disease
might bring greatest benefit to poor people.
Commissioned by DFID
Methods
• Update global maps of poor livestock keeper
• Map rapidly emerging livestock systems
• Update map of emerging infectious diseases (Jones et al., Nature)
• Develop first global maps of priority zoonoses – Criteria based identification of most important
zoonoses
– Review official zoonoses reporting systems
– Systematic literature review of prevalence and burden in Africa and Asia
• One billion PLK depend on 19 billion livestock
• 4 countries have 44% of PLK
• 75% rural, 25% urban poor depend on livestock
• Typically 2-33% income
• Typically 6-36% protein
• Poultry in South and East Asia
• > poultry in South America
• > bovines in South and East Asia
• > poultry in sub Saharan Africa
• = pigs in sub Saharan Africa
• West USA & west Europe hotspots
• Last decade: S America & SE Asia
Top Zoonoses (multiple burdens)
• Assessed 56 zoonoses from 6 listings: responsible 2.7 billion cases, 2.5 million deaths
• “Unlucky 13” responsible for 2.2 billion illnesses and 2.4 million deaths
– All 13 have a wildlife interface
– 9 have a major impact on livestock
– All 13 amenable to on-farm intervention 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Deaths - annual
Official reporting systems
Reporting system
Zoonoses Scope
WAHID 33 Animal
TAD Info 2 Animal
Pro Med All All
GLEWS 19 All
Health Map
All All
Africa • 253 million SLU • 25 million losses annually • Around ½ from notifiable disease • 80,000 reported == 99.8% un-reported
Systematic literature review
• Identify databases – PubMed, AJOL, CABDirect, Google
• Develop criteria, search algorithms
• Screen abstracts, retrieve papers, extract information
• Map data
• Embedded case-study to compare yield of databases with grey literature & library search
• Unlucky 13 zoonoses sicken 2.4 billion
people, kill 2.2 people and affect more
than 1 in 7 livestock each year
Greatest burden of endemic zoonoses falls on one billion poor livestock keepers
Impacts of zoonoses currently or in the last year
• 12% of animals have brucellosis, reducing production by 8%
• 10% of livestock in Africa have HAT, reducing their production by 15%
• 7% of livestock have TB, reducing their production by 6% and from 3-10% of human TB cases may be caused by zoonotic TB
• 17% of smallholder pigs have cysticercosis, reducing their value and creating the enormous burden of human cysticercosis
• 27% of livestock have bacterial food-borne disease, a major source of food contamination and illness in people
• 26% of livestock have leptospirosis reducing production and acting as a reservoir for infection
• 25% of livestock have Q fever, and are a major source of infection of farmers and consumers
Hotspots
• PLK: S. Asia 600 m, SSA 300 m
• LS intensification: India, Myan., Bang., Pak.,
• ZEID: W Europe, W USA
• Zoonoses: S. Asia > EC Africa
• BIG SIX – S Asia: India, Bangladesh, Pakistan
– Africa: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Congo
Conclusions
• Here and now burden of NZDs is much higher than EIDs
• ……..but EIDs in a pathogenic milieu can be civilisation altering
• There are opportunities for better linking research & management of EIDs and NZDs
• The high production burden of NZDs can be a lever for changing practice
Acknowledgements
Funding: DFID, UK
Research team
• Delia Grace, ILRI
• Russ Kruska, Consultant
• Kate Jones, Institute of Zoology
• Liam Brierley, Institute of Zoology
• Florence Mutua, ILRI
• Pamela Ochungo, ILRI
• Lucy Lapar, ILRI
• Mohamed Said, ILRI
• Mario Herrero, ILRI
• Pham Duc Phuc, Hanoi School of
Public Health, Vietnam
• Nguyen Bich Thao, Hanoi School of
Public Health, Vietnam
• Isaiah Akuku, ILRI intern
• Fred Ogutu, ILRI intern
Agriculture for improved nutrition and health
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