Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI): Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio

Marc Santos2008 ASME WISE InternUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst

Overview

Climate Change Action Issue Definition Status of US Electricity Portfolio Transition Options Electricity Portfolio Projections Recommendations

Climate Change Action

In 2007 report: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “Warming of the climate system is Unequivocal” Reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 60-

80%

Sept 2007: President Bush states climate action needed

110th Congress produces 195 pieces of climate change legislation

Both Presidential candidates support a cap on GHG emissions

Rise in Electricity

Energy Information Administration states electricity will increase by 30% by 2030

1.1% increase per year will mean 45% increase by 2050 120 million digital converter boxes = half refrigerator Plasma TVs use 3-4 times more power Cell phone, laptop, and video game plug-in power supplies

have 40-50% power losses Potentially plug-in hybrid vehicles

Issue Definition

GHG emissions should be reduced to 80% of current levels by 2050.

US electricity demand to increase 45% by 2050.

Can the U.S. meet this amount of emission-free generation capacity by 2050? And, if so how?

Why Focus on Electricity?

Electricity sector is the largest producer of CO2

Current US Electricity Portfolio

Mostly fossil fuels, especially coal

No new nuclear facilities built for 30 years

Natural gas has been largest recent growth

Non-hydroelectric renewables are minimal

2006 production: 4065 billion kilowatt hours

Regional Electricity Use

Nuclear Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind Solar Biomass Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)

Current Non-Emitting Technologies

Potential Renewables

Current Population Distribution

Energy production should be regional

Evaluating Existing Projections

Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2008 Annual Energy Outlook for 2030

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 2008 “Prism” Full Portfolio Projection for 2030

International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Technology Perspectives Blue Map for

2050

Energy Information Administration

Increase in coal use No CCS technology Renewables grow

slightly New nuclear plants are

built to meet 19%Coal58%Petroleum

1%

Nuclear19%

Hydro6%

Natural Gas11%

Non-Hydro Renewables

5%

2008 Annual Energy Outlook projection for 2030

Electric Power Research Institute

Coal w/o CCS39%

Coal w/CCS13%

Natural Gas5%

Nuclear29%

Hydro5%

Non-Hydro Renewables

9%

CCS is developed for fossil fuels

Nuclear grows substantially

Renewables grow more rapidly than EIA projection

PRISM projection for 2030

International Energy Agency

Derived from 2008 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios Strategies to 2050

Regional Emission-Free Technology Implementation (RETI) Scenario Adapting the IEA global projections for the US domestic

electricity portfolio results in: 25% nuclear 46% renewable

Wind, Solar, Hydroelectric, Biomass, Geothermal 50% CCS technology for fossil fuels End-Use efficiency

Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI)

RETI Projected Results for 2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Prod

uctio

n(bi

llion

kW

h)

2006 2050baseline

2050regionalscenario

Energy Porfolios

US Energy Porfolio

other

hydro

biomass

solar

w ind

nuclear

petroleum

natural gas

coal

0500

100015002000250030003500

CO

2 Em

issi

ons(

Tons

)

2006 2050baseline

2050regionalscenario

Scenario

Emissions

petroleumnatural gascoal

•W/ CCS we reach a 73% reduction of 2006 emission levels.

2050 RETI 2050

RETI scenario

Development Needed for RETI

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Nuclear Wind Solar Hydro Biomass Geothermal

Gen

erat

ion

Capa

city

(GW

)

Current Capacity

RETI 2050 Capacity

Large increase in Nuclear, Wind, and Solar capacities

Hurdles to Overcome

Nuclear Reprocessing and waste disposal Rebuilding infrastructure

Renewables Large scale energy storage Advanced transmission systems “smart grids” System reliability

CCS (Fossil fuels) Sequestration of Carbon

RecommendationsEmission-free Technology Advancement

Implement a national emission standard which allows for regional flexibility

Implement a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) which allows regional portfolio development

Continue production tax credits for investment of renewable technologies.

Allocate a substantial percentage of R & D funding to

clean power generation technologies without specific inclusion or exclusion of particular emission-free systems.

Recommendations

Infrastructure Revision Upgrade current transmission lines to allow for additional

capacity of electricity and efficient grid use Create new programs to redevelop US infrastructure by

increasing worker training and facility construction to support the manufacture and installation of emission-free technologies.

Recommendations

Energy Efficiency Improve financial incentives for energy reduction through

economic programs such as federal tax credits and feed in tariffs.

Promote the development of efficiency standards in consumer products.

Questions?