http://www.maretec.mohid.com/ww3

Who forecasts waves in Portugal? Project MOCASSIM (IH)

Operational wave model for the Portuguese coast (Pinto et al, 2004)

WaveWatch III model predictions for the Iberian western coast (Pinto et al, 2003)

Tests with SWAN coupled with WW3

Instituto de Meteorologia

24 hours forecast (no spatial resolution)

Sites de surf

Use coarse resolution U.S. model results

Outras aplicações de modelos de ondas

IST (Naval, Guedes Soares)

Wave Forecast system for the Portuguese Coast – Present state

Wave model – Wave Watch IIIMost used model for meso-scale wave modelling

Wind modelsGFS (NCAR - resolution = 1ºx1º)

ARPS (MeteoGalicia – resolution = 50x50 km)

Wave Watch III - v2.22

Wave Watch III (Tolman 1997, 1999a) Refraction

Source terms (2 packages: WAM model or Tolman and Chalikov (1996))

Wave growth and decay due to wind

Nonlinear resonant interactions

“Whitecapping” (dissipation)

Bottom friction

Linear wave propagation

Sub-grid representation of unresolved islands (not used by us, but to be)

ANSI FORTRAN90 modular, most computing options performed at compile level, OpenMP, MPI

Wave Forecast system for the Portuguese Coast – Present state

Model setup (Pablo Carracedo – MeteoGalicia)North Atlantic Ocean (0.5ºx0.5º)

Iberian Peninsula (0.25ºx0.25º)

Portuguese Coast (0.05ºx0.05º)

72 hours forecast on a daily basis, updated around 7 a.m. GMT (~68 hours)

Operational mode running since May 2004

Operational application-Possibility to easily add new nestings to the North Atlantic Ocean Model

-Runs without need for any manual work

-Sends a log e-mail in the end of the simulation

-Starts everyday at 3 a.m.

-Ends normally at 4h45 a.m.

-Tries until a determined hour to start

-If it fails to launch, starts from best restart possible, which can only be done for 3 days. More than that it must be restarted completely – needs 3 days simulation to get reliable results

Operational application steps

Downloads and stores winds (~5MB/day)

Runs preprocessing tools (wind interpolations, nesting files, restart files, update start/end dates, etc)

Launches model

Store results and copies nesting files(~130 MB/day)

Plots results using GRADS (also possible with Mohid PostProcessor or MohidGIS)

Converts to HDF5 (results can be used by MOHID)

Publishes on the Internet

North Atlantic model

North Atlantic model - Hurricanes

Portuguese coast model

Model validation and reliability

No validation performed so far

Model results have been followed qualitatively against real-time buoy data (IH, Puertos del Estado) and other model results (MeteoGalicia, IM, Puertos del Estado). Same quality as IM forecasts.

Operational system is reliable. Failures due to: Internet is down

Failure in wind models

Validation – Leixões buoy

Model

Buoy

Validation – Sines buoy

Model

Buoy

Products from WW3

Navigation warning system

Commercial ships

Recreational boats

Oil spill management system

Forecast for the general public (newspapers, TV, surf websites)

Future work with WW3 - 1

Validate the Portuguese Coast model (Time series comparison with automatic buoys – ask/buy data from IH?)

Improve parameterizations

Independency in terms of wind forcing using MM5-IST and downloading GFS (Extend to 120 or 144h forecasts – winds are reliable)

Higher resolution models for Azores and Madeira

Improve speed (use a faster computer or use MPI version with several computers – dedicated cluster?)

Future work with WW3 - 2

Real time validation

Results publication in an operational modelling website including

non-technical version

operational storm warning system for navigation

validation against satellite images

Couple with MOHID? – It’s possible

Steps to be taken - 1 Get someone to work on this?

1 person full time

Understand waves

Find knowledge and learn from who knows

Understand wave modelling (North Atlantic swells, wind waves, Portuguese coast)

Time depending on person’s knowledge

Validate the Portuguese coast model (WW3)

Get buoy data and compare with available results (1 month)

Improve parameterization (2-3 months)

Steps to be taken - 2

Independency from MeteoGalicia winds

1 week

Higher resolution models for Azores and Madeira

1 week

Improve speed (MPI)

3 days

Steps to be taken - 3

Choose a model for near shore simulations

SWAN – Simulating WAves Nearshore (open source, Pablo from MeteoGalicia has experience in implementation, used and accepted in scientific community, parallel processing)

GKSS – Wave model faster than SWAN, similar results but not very disseminated in the scientific community, possibility of cooperation

Others – STWAVE, REFDIF,…

Import knowledge and implementation technology

Pablo Carracedo (MeteoGalicia) – 2 weeks

Steps to be taken - 4

Implement SWAN (or chosen model) in strategic places

Tagus (SIMTEJO), Costa do Estoril (SANEST), Zambujeira do Mar (ICREW), Óbidos (Águas do Oeste), Ericeira (SIMTEJO), Aveiro (SIMRIA), Algarve (Águas do Algarve)

Start with most urgent site (implementation – 2 months)

Steps to be taken - 5

Technology - Couple with MOHID (Convert to HDF5) Sediment transport (Done)

Done (Final Course Thesis)

Near shore currents (Done)

Mohid-STWave coupling iterative software (done)

Influence on turbulence and mixing

MSc/PhD (include/apply revised turbulence models)

Oil dispersion (Done)

Steps to be taken - 6 Create an application to easily implement a high resolution near shore model operationally (emergency plans)

Setup forecast system in 24 hours or less with full coupling with Wave Watch III, wind models and Mohid (EROCIPS) – 1 year

Data base

Coupling tools

Emergency plans

Useful in oil accidents – wave action on dispersion (EROCIPS)

Navigation warning system in the Tagus estuary (TRANSTEJO) or in other commercial ports in which circulation can be affected by waves (Aveiro, Leixões, Viana do Castelo, Sines, etc)

Needs high resolution wind model?

Is it profitable?