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1 NEWOPERA MARKET EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTS DIMENSION by Franco Castagnetti FINAL CONFERENCE BRUSSELS SEPT 30TH 2008 F&L PARTICIPATION FROM ALL PARTNERS &
Transcript

1

NEWOPERA

MARKET EVOLUTION AND PRODUCTS DIMENSION

by Franco Castagnetti

FINAL CONFERENCE

BRUSSELS SEPT 30TH 2008

F&L

PARTICIPATION FROM ALL PARTNERS &

2

EUROPE RAILFREIGHT NETWORK CONCEPT … and then to Russia and China

3

TONS increase faster than values for de-localization CHINA + ASIA enormous Growth in Trade Imbalance

EU ENLARGEMENT + NMS Growth Fast increase of NMS Imports – Enlargement impact on all EU members +EAST Expansion

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

EU PORTS NEW

CRITICAL GATEWAYS

BREAKS IN TRENDS SINCE YEAR 2000

EU RAIL NETWORK NEW CRITICAL BOTTLENECK

4

(1) Delocalisation (2)(3) Transport INCREASE to/from same Family of Industries (4) Transport INCREASE to/from Industries and Logistics Centres (5) Transport INCREASE to/from Logistics Centres & Distribution (6) New Transport Demand

Basic

Products

Intermed.

Products

Distribution

Manufacture

Parts

Final

Products

Semi-final

Products

Delocalisation Specialisation Modular

Production

Post-

Manufactor. Consolidation

(2) (1) (3) (4) (5)

(6) RECYCLING

F&L

Freight mobility increases 2/3 Times GNP

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

5

The Value Extraction

Supply Chain Evolution-Sophistication

Seamless Chain - Pipeline Effect

SCM

VMI CPFR

F&L

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

COST – COMPETITION – GLOBALISATION - LIBERALISATION

VIRTUAL NETWORK - OUTSOURCING - ADVANCED TECH

DRIVEN BY

COLLABORATIVE

APPROACH

TRANSPORT

MANAGEMENT

EXTERNAL

INTEGRATION

SCE

INTELL APPLIC.

VIRTUAL NETW.

FUTURE TRENDS

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

Logistic&Budget

ratio

Supply chain

extension

Procurement

policies

OSS

Process

automation

Customer

satisfaction

Inventory

warehouse

management

Planning

processes

Event

management

Transport

management

SHIPPERS LSP Small/Medium Size Industries

Traditional Rail not Considered Reliable Supply Chain Partner

F&L

NEW ACTORS LOGISTICS OPER CONSOLIDATORS

INTEGRATORS FORWARDING

AGENTS GLOBAL PLAYERS

SPECIALISTS MULTI CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION

PROBLEM SOLVED

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

7

REVERSE LOGISTICS

FREIGHT WINDOWS & DEDICATED RAIL

FREIGHT LINES

SEAPORTS DECONGESTION

ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION

TRAVELLING INVENTORIES DELIVERIES

INLAND PORTS AND LOGISTICS PLATFORM

TRANSPORT INDUSTRIALISATION

INTROPERABILITY

PHISICAL AND VIRTUAL NETWORK

COMPANIES

GREEN LOGISTICS

The Rising Of Green Logistics

F&L

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

8 F&L

DIFFERENCES

INCUMBENTS VS.

NEWCOMERS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

THE NEW COMPETITION

INFLUENCING

9

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

The Competition

F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

New Entrants Market Share

EU 25 8%

Hundreds of Licences released in every European Country. Many are operational others waiting Safety Certificates

Source McKinsey

10

F&L

DIFFERENT STRATEGIES IN PLAY

COMPETE: NEW ENTRANTS

MAKE: MANY INCUMBENTS

BUY: DB STRATEGY

COOPERATE: SEGMENT ACTORS

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

CONSOLIDATE: ALL

11

New Needs

New Roles/Interfaces New Costs for Energy New Environment Prot.

F&L

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIL

New Trade Patterns. New Volumes New Competition

New Service Culture

New Actors New Business Models New Levels of Integration New Bargaining Powers

New Technologies New Interoperability New Operations New Manag. Systems

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

12

F&L

30,0

Billion � 2005 Estimation With Mergers And Acquisitions

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0

DHL+Exel Schenker + Bax

Kuehne+Nagel

TNT

Panalpina DSV+Maas

Geodis

Geopost+Colipost Gefco

Dachser Wincanton

ABX Logistics

Hellmann

SDV Royal Mail

THE MARKET EVOLUTION Structural Changes

15 EUROPEAN GLOBAL OPERATORS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

13

F&L

NEW SEGMENT

OVERLAND INTERMODALITY

CONVENTIONAL FULL TRAINS

MARITIME INTERMODALITY

SINGLE/GROUPS OF WAGONS

PRODUCTS

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

NEW SEGMENT

NEW SEGMENT

NEW SEGMENT

NEW SEGMENT

THE CHALLENGE

14

F&L

Product position

Product position

Product position

BEFOREBEFORE

DURINGDURING

AFTERAFTER

Transp

ort Cy

cle

Critical phases of the transport cycle

Product position

Product position

Product position

BEFOREBEFORE

DURINGDURING

AFTERAFTER

Transp

ort Cy

cle

Critical phases of the transport cycle

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification

Critical Phases of Transport Cycle

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

15

ECONOMIES OF SCALE

WEIGHT

LOADABILITY

BASIC WAGONS

VOLUME VEICOLE

VOLUME WAGON

REVERSE LOGISTICS

WASTE MGMT

VERTICAL STORAGE

AUTOMATED

WAREHOUSING

IT INTEGRATION

ECONOMIES

OF SCALE

HANDLING SPECIALISATION

VEHICLE

SPECIALISATION

CLEANING

LAST MILE

CONSUMER RESPONSE

REVERSE LOG.

IT INTEGRATION

VMI

VERTICAL/AUTO.

STORAGE

PICKING

PRODUCT INTEGRITY

TEMPERATURE CONTROLLED

SPECIAL

VEHICLES

SPECIAL STORAGE

LOW HIGH

HIGH

Complexities

Valu

e a

dd

ed

F&L

EXTENDED VALUE PROPOSITION

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

16

SEGMENTS SYMBOL Rail

Market Share

Size of

Market

Growing

Potential

Customers

Group

Raw Materials

High Very

Large

Linked to

Growth

Heavy

Industry

Durable Goods

Medium Very Large

High Large Shippers and

LSP

Fast Consumer Very Small

Very Large

Very High LSP

Furniture,Toys,

Household

Very

Small

Large Very High LSP

Process

Industries

Medium Very

Large

High Large

Shippers and LSP

General Cargo

Negligible Very Large

Very High LSP, Optimisers,

Consolidators

Specialties, Dangerous

Medium Medium Medium Large Shippers and

Specialised LSP

F&L

COMBINING COMMON DENOMINATORS OF 16

INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION MULTI PRODUCTS APPROACH

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

17

INTERMODAL

ROAD

SEA

RAIL

MODE

109 18 19 17 14 18 15 8

71 9 7 10 12 7 12 14

124 18 17 17 17 18 18 19

97 10 10 12 16 16 15 18

TOTAL GENERACARGO

SPECIAL FORNIT. HOUSE HOLD

PROCES

INDUST

CONSUM GOODS FAST

DURABL RAW

MATER.

ABILITY TO

SATISFY

CONSIGNMENT SIZE

CONSIGNMENT RENTABILITY

SEGMENT ACCESSIBILIY

SCALE 1 TO 5

EUROPEAN MACRO SEGMENTATION - TARGETING -

F&L

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION THE MULTI PRODUCTS APPROACH

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

18

F&L

INTERMODALIT

Y

CONVENTIONAL TRAFFIC

MARITIME

SINGLE/GROUPS OF WAGONS

CORE

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE CORE ACTIVITIES-MULTI CHANNEL DISTRIBUTION

OVERLAND

FULL TRAINS

DURABLE

AUTOMOTIVE

PROCESS IND.

CONSUMER

FURNITURE SPECIALTIES

Raw Materials

General Cargo

GREEN LOGISTICS +

E/FREIGHT +

19

THE NEW PRODUCTS

F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification

20

NEW MARKETING PRODUCTS MIX

F&L

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Products Identification

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

21

LONG TERM CONTRACTS

BONUS/MALUS-SERVICE

OPEN BOOK RELATION.

THE CUSTOMERS WANT

CUSTOMERS CONTRACTUAL APPROACH TO BE CHANGED

MULTIPRODUCTS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION

MULTI CHANNELS

NEW ACTORS

SERVICE QUALITY

CHOICES

COMPETITION

TO

F&L

NEW RAIL ECONOMY

WHICH OPERATORS ?

22

F&L

INT. INTERMODAL TRAFFIC DOUBLED IN 10 YEARS CONCENTRATED IN FEW COUNTRIES

UIRR UNACCOMPANIED TRANSPORT C ONSIGNEMENTS

YEAR INTERNATIONAL % DELTA

2007 1.668.000 10%

2006 1.512.000 18%

2005 1.280.000 15%

2004 1.114.000 14%

2003 979.000

926.000 2%

2001 904.000 0%

904.000 13%

1999 801.000 1%

1998 808.000 -2%

7%

1997 821.000 14%

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Rail Intermodality Development

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

2000

2002

6%

23

Sturovo

Kiskunhalas

Halkali

Ljubljana

Saloniki

Villach

Beograd

Sopron,

Csorna

F&L

A SOLUTION FOR SINGLE WAGONS

FROM 300 TO 1500 TRAINS/YEAR

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Single Wagons - Group of Wagons

24 F&L

A REVISTED HUB AND SPOKE MODERN APPROACH

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

Marshalling Yard

Corridor Hub

Corridor Hub

Traffic Basin 1

Traffic Basin 2

Traffic Basin 3

Traffic Basin 4

Traffic Basin 5

EVERYWHERE TO EVERYWHERE INDUSTRIALIZE TRAFFIC BASINS

MIXED INTERMODAL/CONVENTIONAL

WHEN NECESSARY FOR ECONOMY OF SCALE

+

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION Single Wagons - Group of Wagons

25

NO CHANGE IN OVERLAND

TRANSPORTATION

Total TEU Average TEU

2008 1.674.227 8.372

2005 1.308.581 6.543

2000 986.608 4.933

1995 733.155 3.666

1990 600.958 3.005

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008 F&L

SOURCE: Port of Hamburg

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION The Maritime Growth

26

CONTAINER SHIP

YARD

DUTY CYCLE

PORTS BOTTLENECKS IDENTIFICATION

CRANE

TERMINAL

ROAD AND

RAILWAY

INTERFACE

STORAGE

SHIP

CONNECTIONS

SEA INTERFACE

F&L Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION The Maritime Growth

27

2006

264.000

TRAINS

2010

350.000

TRAINS 2015

600.000

TRAINS

2020 1.000.000

TRAINS

2006

6%

2020

16%

Market Share

F&L

RAILFREIGHT CHALLENGE FOR INCREASING MARKET SHARE

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE PRODUCTS DIMENSION INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT

2006

1.000.000

TRAINS

2020

4.000.000

TRAINS AB

OU

T

28

F&L

Franco Castagnetti, Tel/Fax: +39 02 89423765 Email: [email protected] WebSite: www.newopera.org

THANK YOU!

MARKET EVOLUTION & PRODUCTS DIMENSION

29

NEWOPERA

BRUSSELS -SEP.30th- 2008

Final Conference

THE OPERATING AND TECHNICAL DIMENSION

by Pierre Dersin

30

o ASSESSMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES

o DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEMS TO INCREASE

CAPACITY & EFFICIENCY WITHIN THE 4 NEW

OPERA SCENARIOS

o CAPACITY: TRACK CAPACITY DEFINITION

TRAINS CAPACITY

o EFFICIENCY: QUALITY/PERFORMANCE

INDICES AND PUNCTUALITY

NEW OPERATING & TECHNICAL SYSTEMS / ASPECTS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

OBJECTIVES

31

HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES

INCREASING TRAINS CAPACITY AND PRODUCTIVITY

WAYS OF INCREASING TRAINS CAPACITY HAVE BEEN RESEARCHED

SCENARIO 2

LONGER TRAINS HEAVIER LOAD ON EXISTING LINES

SCENARIO 3 DOUBLE STACK ON SOME NEW LINES

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

32

o TECHNOLOGY IMPACT ON ROLLING STOCK

WAGONS BRAKING CHARACTERISTICS:

BRAKING FIRST & LAST WAGON SIMULTANEOUSLY

NEEDS IMPROVEMENT TO THE ELECTRICAL BRAKING

CONTROL

WAGON BRAKING SYSTEMS TO BE STANDARDISED

LOCOMOTIVES COUPLINGS NECESSARY

o ON INFRASTRUCTURE: LONGER PARKING YARDS

o ON ENERGY REQUIREMENTS: MORE POWERFUL

ELECTRICAL SUBSTATIONS OR DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES

o ON SIGNALLING: LONGER BLOCKS OR ADVANCED

INTERLOCKING ALGORITHMS

ACHIEVING LONGER TRAINS/HIGHER LOADS

HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

33

HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES

FINAL ASSESSMENT OF OPERATING AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AND TRADE-OFFS

Energy, environment and technical: • Electric vs Diesel locos

Pollution: • Noise • Dust • Emissions • Vibrations

• Used liquids

MAINTENANCE CONSTRAINTS IDENTIFIED

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRADE OFFS EVALUATION

34

HARDWARE TECHNOLOGIES

LT LT MT

SIMPLE

INTRODUCTION

ST SPEC

EXISTS ST

(but: RAMS)

NOW TECH.AVAILABILITY

VERY HIGH IF NOT DESIGNED IN

HIGH LOW LOW COSTS

AUTOMAT.

COUPLING

ECP Distributed

Power

EOT TECH

ROAD MAP

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

35

INSUFFICIENT CROSS-BORDER CO-

ORDINATION FOR SLOT RE-ASSIGNMENT

TRAIN NUMBERING TRACKING/TRACING

HANDLING NOT HARMONISED

LACK OF SUPPORTING TOOLS TO MANAGE

TRAFFIC

LACK OF KNOWLEDGE OF TRAINS PRIORITIES

SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES

INFORMATION PROBLEMS FOR RAIL FREIGHT PUNCTUALITY

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

36

No European Rail company is able to calculate

expected train’s time of arrival in real time

Trains delayed +10 minutes loose their slot.

National IMs find solutions up to their border.

Border IMs unprepared to find a short term slots.

A train pre-announcing system for international freight does not exist in Europe.

SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES

INFORMATION PROBLEMS (CONT’D)

In emergency, most control centres have

no intelligent tools for deciding trains

priorities.

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

37

PROBLEM

SOLUTION

BENEFIT

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

DESCRIPTION OF REAL-TIME TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT POLICIES

HELP THE DISPATCHER RESCHEDULE THE TIMETABLE AFTER A DISRUPTION

A VERY COMPLEX PROBLEM WITH A LOT OF DATA

DECISION SUPPORT TOOL PRODUCING A NEW TIMETABLE WITH MINIMUM DELAY

IMPROVE TRAIN PUNCTUALITY

38

BOTH OPTIMISATION AND RULE-BASED METHODS SHOW ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES:

PERSPECTIVE: COMBINING BOTH METHODS

METHOD ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

OPTIMISAT. OPTIMISE AN OBJECTIVE NO TIME

OPTIMISATION

RULE-BASED OPTIMISE TIME NO OBJECTIVE OPTIMISATION

SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES

DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS FOR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

39

OPERATING RULES

IMs to adopt the regular time-headway scheduling system for increasing corridors capacity.

PRIORITY RULES

Freight trains and more so the international ones should not be discriminated against passenger trains.

Priority rules must be the same throughout pan-European freight corridors.

NEW OPERATING RULES

KEY FINDINGS

An independent European body must be set-up on RNE experience. Its role is managing freight train-paths to ensure consistency and transparency.

IMPLEMENTATION RECOMMENDATION

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

40

CONTRACTUAL RULES Performance management contracts to be established between IMs and RUs.

These contracts to be based on KPIs. Example:

Penalties must be applied in case of non-performance.

Penalties to be borne by the non-performing parties. Hence the necessity to have a corridors management neutral body.

IMPLEMENTATION RECOMMENDATION This new operating regime to be experienced on one show-case corridor before wider EU implementation.

KPI = % Number of trains arriving on-time (+/- pre-agreed interval)

Total number of trains

NEW OPERATING RULES

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

RNE MUST MANAGE TRAINS PATHS ON OSS ENSURING CORRIDORS COMPETITION & TRANSPARENCY

41

CORRIDORS’ OWNERSHIP

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

OPERATIONAL RULES

ARE NECESSARY

Define Responsibilities in Rail Freight Traffic

Management TO

RNE IS POSITIVE BUT No Empowerment to Take Decisions

To Evolve Into a Neutral Body Which Can Take Decisions for Maximising

Corridors Efficiency and Productivity

RNE: RAIL NET EUROPE

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

42

Capacity Assessment and Simulation of the NEW Opera Scenarios in a Showcase Corridor and a Showcase Junction.

Implementation of Characteristics Typical for the Scenarios:

Priority Rules

Train Control Systems, Esp. Etcs

Adaptation of Infrastructure and Rolling Stock.

Deduction of Recommendations About Effective Combination of Measures for Future NEW Opera Freight Corridors.

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

SHOWCASE CORRIDOR

43

SHOW CASE CORRIDOR BÉNING- MANNHEIM VIA HOMBURG

•ABOUT 120 KM LENGTH

•TRAFFIC MIX

•LONG-DISTANCE PASSENGER

SERVICES

•REGIONAL & INTERURBAN

PASSENGER SERVICES

•INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT

SERVICES

•NATIONAL FREIGHT SERVICES

•BIFURCATION AT BÉNING

THE CHALLENGE

MIXING/DEMIXING FREIGHT

AND PASSENGER TRAFFIC Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

44

METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS

Default values Freight trains rank below EC Longer freight trains ETCS Level 3 3.3

Default values Status quo Longer freight trains ETCS Level 3 3.2

Default values Freight trains rank below EC Status quo ETCS Level 3 3.1

Default values Status quo Status quo ETCS Level 3 3.0

Default values Harmonisation of speed Status quo ETCS Level 2 2.4

Default values Freight trains rank below EC Longer freight trains ETCS Level 2 2.3

Default values Status quo Longer freight trains ETCS Level 2 2.2

Default values Freight trains rank below EC Status quo ETCS Level 2 2.1

Default values Status quo Status quo ETCS Level 2 2.0

Default values Status quo Status quo ETCS Level 1 2.0.a

Freight trains suffer from less delays

Freight trains rank below EC Status quo Status quo 1.1b

Default values Freight trains rank below EC Status quo Status quo 1.1a

Default values Status quo Status quo Status quo 0.0

Delays at entry Priorities/Dispatching Rolling stock Train control system Scenario

Priority ranking:

• EuroCity • Regional • S-Bahn • Freight • Local

trains

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

45

PRIORITIES IMPACT ON DELAYS (RWTH SIMULATION)

Giving a Slightly Higher Priority to Freight Trains, Overall Delay (Passenger + Freight) Can Be Considerably Reduced

Trade-off Is a Small Increase in Passenger Trains Delay

OPERATIONAL QUALITY DEPENDS ON INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT AND FREIGHT TRAIN’S DELAYS AT ENTRY

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

46

RESULTS EXPLANATION

GIVING FREIGHT TRAFFIC A HIGHER PRIORITY

REDUCES FREIGHT DELAYS

INCREASES DELAYS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC

DECREASE OF FREIGHT DELAYS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN INCREASE OF PASSENGER DELAYS. TOTAL DELAY IS REDUCED

INCREASING FREIGHT DELAYS LEADS TO SMALLER INPUT DELAYS IN THE NEXT SECTION (NETWORK EFFECT)

RUNNING FREIGHT WITH HIGHER PUNCTUALITY LEADS TO CAPACITY INCREASE

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

47

#TRAINS

TOTAL DELAY

PRACTICAL CAPACITY

SERVICE LEVEL

THEORETICAL CAPACITY

CONGESTED INFRASTRUCTURE

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

RESULTS EXPLANATION

48

REDUCED INPUT DELAY DECREASES TOTAL DELAY.

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

PRACTICAL CAPACITY

THEORETICAL CAPACITY

TOTAL DELAY

#TRAINS

SERVICE LEVEL

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

RESULTS EXPLANATION

49

REDUCED INPUT DELAY DECREASES TOTAL DELAY.

PRACTICAL CAPACITY IS INCREASED!

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

RESULTS EXPLANATION

TOTAL DELAY

PRACTICAL CAPACITY

THEORETICAL CAPACITY

SERVICE LEVEL

#TRAINS

50

EQUALISING PRIORITIES LEADS TO LOWER TOTAL DELAYS.

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

RESULTS EXPLANATION

TOTAL DELAY

SERVICE LEVEL

#TRAINS

THEORETICAL CAPACITY

PRACTICAL CAPACITY

51

CONCLUSIONS OF SIMULATIONS

GIVING FREIGHT HIGHER PRIORITY ON MIXED TRAFFIC LINES INCREASES TOTAL PUNCTUALITY.

INCREASING PUNCTUALITY MEANS INCREASING CAPACITY.

FURTHER MEASURES NECESSARY IN ORDER TO INCREASE FREIGHT PUNCTUALITY (PERFORMANCE REGIMES, PENALTY SYSTEMS)

ULTIMATELY ONLY TOTAL RAIL FREIGHT-DEDICATED CORRIDORS SOLVE THE PROBLEM (SCENARIO 3)

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

TRAINING AND NEW OPERATING RULES

52

ETCS LEVELS 1-2-3

INTEROPERABILITY

by GSM-R system

Train integrity position or GPS- Experimental

By track-side equipment

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

53

INTEROPERABILITY

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

ETCS 1- CAPACITY INCREASE 1%

ETCS 2- CAPACITY INCREASE 16%

ETCS 3- CAPACITY INCREASE 50%

LEVELS 2 AND 3 HAVE THE GREATEST

IMPACT ON CAPACITY

LEVELS 2 AND 3 DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY

WAITING TIMES IMPROVING SERVICE

RESULTS IN SHOWCASE CORRIDOR WITH JUNCTION

54

Pierre Dersin Tel: +33 1 46 29 15 95 Email: [email protected]

THANK YOU!

THE OPERATING AND

TECHNICAL DIMENSION

55

NEWOPERA

BRUSSELS -SEP.30th- 2008

Final Conference

THE NETWORK DIMENSION

By Christian Reynaud

56

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE NETWORK DIMENSION

SERVICES ANALYSIS GENERATION TRAIN

TRAFFIC

FREIGHT ROUTES IDENTIFICATION

DIRECT& INTERMODAL WAGON

TRAIN LOAD

ASSIGNMENT

MODELLING

SCENARIO

SIMULATION

SCENARIOS

DEFINITION

SCENARIOS

EVALUATION

INTERACTION MODELLING / EVALUATION OF N.O SCENARIO

ENVIRONMENTAL

ASSESSMENT

57

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

NEWOPERA NETWORK IDENTIFICATION 1

DEMAND DRIVEN

SERVICE DRIVEN

INTERMODAL NETWORK INCLUDING LINKS, NODES, POINTS OF INTERCHANGES (PORTS, TERMINALS…)

OPERATION NETWORK DIFFERENTIATING- DIRECT TRAINS WAGON LOAD-INTERMODAL TRAINS (COMBINED TRANSPORT - MARITIME CONTAINERS)

MULTILEVEL NETWORK-REGIONAL-NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL FOR “DOOR TO DOOR” SUPPLY CHAINS - INCLUDING LAST MILE

EVOLUTIONAL NETWORK INCLUDING MAJOR ERTMS CORRIDORS-EXTENDED TO NEW MEMBER STATES-OPEN TO EURASIAN LINKS AND NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES

NEWOPERA NETWORK OBJECTIVES

58

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

DEMAND DRIVEN, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF O/D FLOWS

INTRA EU NATIONAL-INTRA EU INTERNATIONAL-EXTRA EU

FOR 16 TYPES OF PRODUCTS AND THREE MAJOR CATEGORIES

BULK- GENERAL CARGO-UNITISED.

SERVICE DRIVEN, INTRODUCTION OF INTERMODAL SERVICES BETWEEN TERMINALS + PORT CONTAINERS SERVICES

INTERMODAL NETWORK INCLUDING RAIL, ROAD AND IWW NETWORKS, WITH, FERRY, FEEDER ROUTES AND INTERCONNECTIONS

OPERATION NETWORK LOCATIONS OF HUBS-GATEWAYS INTERMODAL TRANSPORT SCHEMES BETWEEN TERMINALS AND MARSHALLING YARDS FOR RAIL FREIGHT ROUTES

IDENTIFICATION FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRAINS.

NEWOPERA NETWORK IDENTIFICATION 2

59

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

SELECTION CRITERIA FOR

NEWOPERA NETWORK

TRAFFIC DENSITY ON SECTIONS OBTAINED FROM UIC INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGERS

MAJOR TERMINALS IDENTIFICATION AND INFORMATION ON SERVICE FREQUENCIES BETWEEN THEM-INFORMATION FROM RAIL OPERATORS AND OTHER SOURCES

FREIGHT ROUTES PERFORMANCES SPEED OF TRAINS OBSERVATIONS (RFF)-FREIGHT TRAINS TIME TABLES(GERMANY)

SLOTS AVAILABLE ON RAIL NET EUROPE CORRIDORS WITH DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL TIME-RNE OFFER COMPARISON WITH PERFORMANCES INFORMATION ON ROUTES

EXPERT ADVICE FOR TRANSPORT SCHEME -INTERMODAL, PORT, WAGON LOAD BETWEEN MARSHALLING YARDS-

MODELLING ASSIGNMENT OF FREIGHT TRAINS ON EU NETWORK ACCORDING TO TIME PERFORMANCES. COMPARISON WITH TRAFFIC DENSITY

USE OF FORMER EU RESEARCH PROJECTS -EUFRANET, IQ, TENSTAC, SPIN AND A SET OF INDICATORS, EXPERT ADVICE, INSERTED IN A GLOBAL GIS FRAMEWORK.

60

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

NEWOPERA CONNECTION EURO-ASIA LINKS

61

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

EU RAIL NETWORK 220,000 KM (EUROSTAT) NEWOPERA MAIN NETWORK 140,000 KM NEWOPERA “FREIGHT NETWORK” 39,000 KM (35,000

WITHOUT EASTERN EXTENSION) 15% OF TOTAL NETWORK, 25% OF MAIN RAIL

NETWORK LENGTH EU RAIL NETWORK 392 BILLIONS TKM IN 2004 NEWOPERA MAIN NETWORK 298 BILLIONS TKM NEWOPERA “FREIGHT NETWORK” 183 BILLIONS TKM 61% OF INTERREGIONAL RAIL TRAFFIC CONTAINER TRAFFIC (EXTRA EU) BY RAIL 33 BILLIONS

TKM IN 2004 NEWOPERA“FREIGHT NETWORK”23 BILLION TKM

72 % OF CONTAINER RAIL TRAFFIC

RAIL TRAFFIC ON NEWOPERA NETWORK

62

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

MODELLING TOOL FOR NETWORK ASSIGNMENT

NESTEAR USED LOGIS MODEL WITH 2 STEPS GENERATION/DISTRIBUTION ASSIGNMENT OF MODAL

CONTRIBUTION GENERATION / DISTRIBUTION (LOGIN)

INTRA-EU: REGION TO REGION “GRAVITY MODEL” IN 16 GROUPS OF PRODUCTS

EXTRA-EU: TREND ANALYSIS FROM “REGIONS” OF THE

WORLD TO NUTZ II REGIONS OF EU

POINT TO POINT DISTRIBUTION OF REGIONAL TRAFFIC USING GIS LOCALISATION OF POPULATIONS / ACTIVITIES (CORINNE LAND COVER…)

63

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

ASIA26

NA40

SA9

MED19 :MEDITERRANEAN & MEAST

19 COUNTRIES

April 2008@NESTEAR

SPECIFIC MODEL FOR SEA CONTAINERS -PORT PRINT -

PORT TRAFFIC

TONS IN CTS COMEXT EUROSTAT

REGIONAL

TRAFFIC TONS

GENERATION

GRAVITY MODELS

ASSIGNMENT ON

INTERMODAL

NETWORK

CONTAINERISATION

RATE PER ZONES

EXTRA-EU ZONES:

:ASIA EXCEPT MIDDLE EAST

26 COUNTRIES

:N. AMERICA & CARABBEAN

40 COUNTRIES

:SOUTH AMERICA

9 COUNTRIES

64

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIO

DG TREN: GDP AND SECTORIAL PRODUCTION PER COUNTRY

DESEGREGATION AT REGIONAL LEVEL ACCORDING TO REGIONAL PAST TREND (REGIONAL DYNAMICS)

ANALYSIS OF EXTRA EU TRENDS: MEDIUM VALUE BETWEEN “ARITHMETIC” AND “GEOMETRIC” TREND ANALYSIS.

REFERENCE TRANSPORT SCENARIO

INCREASE OF ROAD COST BY 20%

NO CHANGE IN RAIL COST

INTRODUCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN THE GRAPH

SCENARIO DEFINITION

65

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

ROAD COST: INCREASE 20% FROM 1€ TO 1.2 € KM INTERREGIONAL TRANSPORT AS REFERENCE

1/3 INCREASE OF PRODUCTIVITY FOR OPERATING COSTS: BETTER USE OF R/STOCK, INCREASE STAFF PRODUCTIVITY, HIGHER AVERAGE TRAINS LOADING

INCREASE OF RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE CHARGES FROM 1.5€ TO 4 € PER TRAIN / KM TO PAY FOR USE OF INFRASTRUCTURE

15% INCREASE OF RAIL PRODUCTIVITY FROM 17.8 € TO 15.1 € PER TRAIN KM INCREASE NUMBER OF INTERMODAL SERVICES

SPAIN, FRANCE, EASTERN EUROPE BETWEEN MAJOR TERMINALS

NEWOPERA SCENARIO

66

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

A)TRAFFIC GENERATION PROJECTION(REGIONAL) AVERAGE GROWTH OF 2.2% PER YEAR (NON BULK 2004-2020) HIGHER INCREASE OF INTERN.TRAFFIC 4.4% COMPARED TO NATIONAL 1.8%. A 5.7 % GROWTH PER YEAR FOR EXTRA EU TRADE. SIMULATION OF NEW OPERA SCENARIO IN 2020 (COMPARED TO REFERENCE SCENARIO)

• RAIL MODAL SHARE INCREASES FROM 20%to29% IN INTERREGIONAL TRAFFIC COMPARED TO ROAD

• RAIL MODAL SHARE INCREASES FROM 28%to47% IN INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC ROAD + RAIL

• NEW OPERA NETWORK CAPTURES MOST OF ROAD MODAL SHIFT (90 %)

• NEW OPERA NETWORK CONCENTRATES 44% OF INTERNAT. TRAFFIC WITHIN EU (ROAD AND RAIL)

RESULTS

67

+78% NEWOPERA NETWORK FOR REFERENCE SCENARIO 2020/2004

+207% NEWOPERA NETWORK FOR NEWOPERA SCENARIO 2020/2004 0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

Reference 2004 Reference 2020 New Opera 2020

To

ns.km

(in

m

illio

ns)

Tk New opera

Tk rail outside New Opera

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

GAINS WITH NEWOPERA SCENARIO IN 2020

TK in

billionsRef.

2004

Ref.

2020

N.O

2020

Tk global

rail298 504 731

Tk New

opera183 326 563

New

opera %61% 65% 77%

68

PROJECTIONS FOR NON BULK PRODUCTS ALL MODES Annual Growth Rate "NON BULK" Traffic Intra & Extra EU

Zone National International Total

EU 15 1.7% 3.4% 1.9% EU10 3.2% 10.1% 3.8% EU25 1.8% 4.4% 2.2%

Intra EU (2004-2020 %)

Zone Import Export Total

EU 15 5.9% 4.0% 5.2% EU10 8.8% 8.5% 8.7% EU25 6.3% 4.9% 5.7%

Extra EU (2006-2020 %)

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

69

RAIL MODAL SHARE NATIONAL & INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC

MODAL SHARE

FOR RAIL (RAIL +

ROAD TOTAL NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL

REFENCE 2020 ALL

RAIL 20 16 28 NEWOPERA

SCENARIO ALL

RAIL 29 16 47

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

70

SHIFT FROM ROAD TO RAIL: INTERMODAL TRAFFIC

144 BILLIONS OF TKM ON THE RAIL NETWORK

131 BILLIONS OF TKM ON NEW OPERA NETWORK (91%)

INTRA EU

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

71

IMPACT ON ROAD NETWORK

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

72

EXTRA EU TRAFFIC: SHIFT FROM ROAD & FEEDER TO RAIL 86 BL /TKM WITH

80 BL/TKM ON NEWOPERA NETWORK

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

73

THANK YOU!

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

THE NETWORK DIMENSION

74

NEWOPERA

BRUSSELS -SEP.30th- 2008

Final Conference

THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIMENSION

by Christophe Keseljevic

75

ASSOCIATE TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS TO FINANCIAL FIGURES FOR PROJECT COHERENCE

SUGGEST MEASURES FOR ELABORATING A REALISTIC IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

THE CHALLENGES

COSTS RELATED TO NEEDED PROJECT IMPROVEMENTS ?

RAIL TRAFFIC:WHICH

EXPECTED EVOLUTIONS ?

WHICH EXPECTED BENEFITS ?

HOW MUCH CAN BE INVESTED ON

THE NETWORK?(TOTAL SOCIO

ECONOMIC JUSTIFIABLE AMOUNT

WHICH MIX OF RELEVANT

REALISTIC INVESTMENTS

CONSIDERING PRIORITIES,

EXISTING PROGRAMMES,

RISKS ?

CONCLUSIONS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

76

Project Appraisal Methodology Definition :RAILPAG

OVERVIEW- LINKS-

METHODOLOGY

SCENARIOS TO BE ASSESSED

SOCIO-ECONOMIC &

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

RECOMMENDATIONS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

WHAT- Infrastructure

Bottlenecks -Priority Rules WHEN- Time Horizons WHERE - Network Corridors

INPUTS FROM

NEWOPERA WPS NATIONAL PROJECTS EUROPEAN PROJECTS OTHERS

COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS RESULTS SYNTHESIS MAPS

77

COSTS BENEFIT ASSESSMENT METHOD

METHODOLOGY ELABORATED BY EIB WITH DG TREN

COST-BENEFITS ANALYSIS INTEGRATING NON-MONETISED EFFECT

ADAPTABLE TO NEWOPERA CHARACTERISTICS

- EUROPEAN SCALE PROJECT

- MANY TYPES OF STAKEHOLDERS

- FOCUS ON ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS AS WELL AS ECONOMIC ONES

- ALLOWS TO INTEGRATE EUROPEAN CURRENT WORKS ON EXTERNAL EFFECTS

MAIN OUTPUT A STAKEHOLDER/EFFECTS S/E MATRIX (MAIN NOVELTY OF RAILPAG).

PROPOSITION BASED ON THE RAILPAG APPROACH

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

78

THE SPATIAL DIMENSION

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS ON TRAFFIC FLOW

MORE AVAILABLE DATA

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN MORE REALISTIC

MAJOR EUROPEAN CORRIDOR

GREAT POTENTIAL OF GROWTH

WILL BENEFIT IN A NEAR FUTURE OF MAJOR INVESTMENTS (NEW UIC GAUGE LINE IN SPAIN

LESS SCRUTINISED THAN THE ROTTERDAM / ANVERS – MILANO / GENOA CORRIDOR

NORTH /SOUTH - EAST/WEST CORRIDOR

INTEGRATING WITH OTHER CORRIDORS

PART OF FERRMED AXE

THE ASSESSMENT METHOD CAN BE USED FOR ANY OTHER ONE

ASSESSING THE NEWOPERA NETWORK FOCUS ON STRATEGIC MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR

79

MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST

80

MARKET REGULATION

COMMERCIAL INNOVATION

ROLLING STOCK

OPERATING SYSTEM

INFRASTRUCTURE

NEW Technologies

MARKET PERFORMANC

E

INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION

Planning

RAIL TRANSPORT SYSTEM INTEGRATION FOR SCENARIOS

Juin 2008©NESTEAR

DEFINITION OF A DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

81

SYNTESIS OF MUTATION

PATH SCENARIOS

2010

EUROPE

AN RAIL

REFORM

2015 RAIL

CONSOLID.

PERFORM

ANCE

2020

ENTRY IN

NEW RAIL

CENTURY

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

2010

RAIL SHARE NOT DECLINING RAIL SYSTEM OPEN TO COMPETITION SIGNIFICANT SUCCESS OF NEW ENTRANTS AND PORT SERVICES.

2015

INCREASE IN RAIL PRODUCTIVITY MODERNISATION OF ROLLING STOCK

LONGER AND HEAVIER TRAINS

2020

ERTMS IMPLEMENTATION CORRIDORS MANAG.-CONTRACT RULES FOR SLOTS ALLOCATION

82

TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS

-87653 -159299 241747 233736 GAIN/LOSS

162001 1423027 563149 731535

NEWOPERA SCENARIO

2020

249654 1582326 321403 497799

REFERENCE 2020

MM TK FEEDER

MM TK ROAD

MM TK NEW OPERA NETWORK

MM TK GLOBAL

RAIL

TOTAL FLOWS 2020

NEWOPERA NETWORK ABSORBS SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF THE TOTAL RAIL FREIGHT IN TONS/KM IN EUROPE. THE NEWOPERA NETWORK UTILISATION REPRESENTS 59 % OF THE TOTAL RAIL TRAFFIC AND 66 % FOR TRANSPORT DISTANCES ABOVE 800 KM. Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

83

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

METHODOLOGIES OVERVIEW USED AT NATIONAL AND

EU LEVEL. REFERENCE TO UNIT VALUE EMISSIONS

RAIL UNIT EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF OPERATING CONTEXT RELATED TO TOPOGRAPHY, GEOGRAPHICAL ZONES, URBAN, RURAL AREAS, TYPE OF ROLLING STOCK AND TRAINS COMPOSITION

ROAD UNIT EMISSION ALSO RELATED TO GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT ON OPERATING SYSTEMS ASSESSING THE REDUCTION OF ROAD ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT FOR TRAFFIC TRANSFER TO RAIL

ILLUSTRATION OF THE PROPOSED ENVIRONMENTAL METHODOLOGY USING GIS TOOL AT DIFFERENT LOCAL - REGIONAL- CORRIDOR OR NATIONAL LEVEL.

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

84

CO2 EMISSIONS FOR ROAD

DIFFERENTIAL OF CO2 EMISSIONS BY ROAD AND COMBINED FLOWS WITH + 30 % ROAD COST ON TRANSALPINE -TRANS PYRENEE TRAFFIC

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

85

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

BY TRANSFER FROM ROAD ON TRANS-ALPINE-PYRENEE TRAFFIC

REDUCED CO2 EMISSIONS 2020

86

EXPECTED REDUCTION ON NOISE LEVEL

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

0 20 40 60 80 100

Number of pass-byes /24h

dB

(A) Today

2020 best case

2020 most probable

IMPROVEMENTS

TO ALLOW HIGHER RAIL TRAFFIC IMPLYING AN ACCEPTABLE NOISE LEVEL

TECHNOLOGY

REACHABLE BUT NECESSITATES ACCELERATION IN THE ROLLING STOCK RENEWAL OR REFITTING

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

87

PRINCIPLES OF A COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS

IS THE PROJECT WORTHWHILE ?

COMPARISON WITH/WITHOUT PROJECT

OVERALL ECONOMIC IMPACT

CHANGE IN TRANSPORT USER BENEFITS (CONSUMER SURPLUS)

CHANGE IN SYSTEM OPERATING COSTS AND REVENUES(PRODUCER GOVERNMENT SURPLUS)

CHANGE IN COSTS OF EXTERNALITIES

INVESTMENT COSTS INCLUDING MITIGATION MEASURES

€€€ =

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

+

+

-

88

PRINCIPLES OF COSTS BENEFITS ANALYSIS

ANNUAL BENEFITS OF THE PROJECTS

SCENARIO I

COST OF THE PROJECT PER YEAR

SAVED TIME SAVED COSTS COMPARED TO OTHER MODES EXTERNAL BENEFITS SECURITY & ENVIRONMENT

INITIAL SERVICE OPENING

ADAPTATED SERVICE TO INCREASED DEMAND IN N YEARS

RAIL SYSTEM ADDITIONAL EXPLOITATION COSTS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

89

STAKEHOLDERS / EFFECTS MATRIX

MATRIX FOR MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR IRR 5,5%

ROAD TO RAIL

SHIPPER ROAD

OPER. RAIL

OPER. RAIL

MANAGER

INVEST

MENTS NON

USERS ECON. €

VALUE

Users Change in transport costs 12 251,8 12 251,8 Additional revenues 23 790,9 23 790,9

OPERATION Track charges -7 655,4 7 655,4 0,0 Additional operating costs -13 972,7 -13 972,7 Change in benefit -2 161,2 -2 161,2 ASSETS Infrastructure -13 000,0 -13 000,0 Infrastructure maintenance -7 655,4 -7 655,4 Safety 922,5 922,5 Green house effect gaz emissions 514,8 514,8 Air pollution 0,0 Climatic change 0,0

ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY 12 251,8 -2 161,2 2 162,8 0,0 -13 000,0 1 437,2 690,7

CHANGE IN

TRANSPOR

T COSTS

CHANGE IN

BENEFITS

ADDITIONAL

REVENUES,

TRACK

CHARGES,

OPERATING

COSTS

NEUTRAL

EFFECT

ADDITIONAL

NEEDED

FINANCIAL

CONTRIBUTION

CHANGE IN

EXTERNAL

EFFECTS

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

90

CORRIDOR MADRID - BERLIN RESULTS

WHEN VALUING POSITIVE EXTERNAL EFFECTS INDUCED BY A MODAL SHIFT FROM ROAD TO RAIL IT WOULD BE SOCIO-ECONOMICALLY VIABLE TO INVEST -GLOBAL AMOUNTS IN RAIL FREIGHT INFRASTRUCTURE ONLY-

SUFFICIENT TO IMPLEMENT ALL THE MEASURES IDENTIFIED WITHIN THE NEWOPERA SCOPE SCENARIO ?

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

NEWOPERA ASSUMPTIONS

13 G€ ON THE CORRIDOR

43 G€ ON THE WHOLE NEW OPERA NETWORK

91

NEEDED TO BE DONE ON THE MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN EXTREME SYNTHESIS

GAUGE CHANGE AND/OR 3RD RAIL TRACK ON THE PORT-BOU – BARCELONA SECTION

GB1 GAUGE

750 MT SIDINGS

NEW HIGH-SPEED LINE AVOIDING NÎMES AND MONTPELLIER (2013)

REINFORCEMENT SUBSTATIONS BETWEEN MONTPELLIER AND PERPIGNAN

LYON FREIGHT AVOIDING LINE 1ST PART

ERTMS THROUGHOUT LEVEL 2 ON NEW LINES

LINE UPGRADING BETWEEN SAARBRÜCKEN AND LUDWIGSHAFEN

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

92

NEEDED TO BE DONE ON THE MADRID-BERLIN CORRIDOR AND PROSECUTION TO WARSAW

IMPLEMENTATION PLAN EXTREME SYNTHESIS

RECONSTRUCTION OF 8 BORDER BRIDGES ON THE ODER AND THE NEISS STARTING 2008 WITH THE ODERBRUCKE IN FRANKFURT/ODER.

MODERNIZATION OF THE TRACK AND ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY BETWEEN BERLIN AND POZNAN

DOUBLING OF THE TRACK FROM KNAPPENRODE TO HORKA AND ELECTRIFICATION THROUGHOUT TO WEGLINIEC IN ORDER TO CREATE A SECOND ALL ELECTRIFIED TRUNK ROUTE BETWEEN GERMANY AND POLAND WITH A HIGH FREIGHT PRIORITY.

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

PROVIDED BY

93

BASEL-MANNHEIM FREIGHT DEDICATED LINE: COMPLETED IN VARIOUS STAGES IN 2012-2015-2020

TWO ALTERNATIVES IN SWITZERLAND: LOETCHBERG/SIMPLON/LUINO/B.ARSIZIO/NOVARA COMPLETED 2007 AND GOTHARD/CHIASSO IN 2015

MONTE CENERI TUNNEL IN COMPLETED 2019

TWO ADDITIONAL TRACKS FROM MONTE OLIMPINO ON COMO-MILANO COMPLETED 2017

GENOA/MILAN THIRD RAIL TUNNEL???? PRIVATE INTEREST OFFERED TO BUIL IT BY 2016 ON 50 YEARS CONCESSION.

GENOA-ROTTERDAM INTERMODAL CORRIDOR IN 2020

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

94

GENOA-ROTTERDAM TECHNICAL DETAILS

FULL CORRIDOR OPENING 2020

HUGE CAPACITY GENERATED FOR FREIGHT

GAUGE “C”

MAXIMUM GRADIENT 12%O

CORRIDOR DISTANCE REDUCTION

REDUCTION 50% ON PREVIOUS TRANSIT TIME

CORRIDORS MANAGEMENT IN OPERATION

HUBS AND TERMINALS ON THE LINE MUST BE ADEQUATE TO NEW CAPACITY (B.ARSIZIO-NOVARA-WOIPPY-MANNEHEIM-RTD-ANTWERP)

LONGER TRAINS 1000 TO 1500 MT

STANDARDISED EUROPEAN ERTMS/ETCS LEVEL 2 SIGNALLING SYSTEM LEADING TO LEVEL 3

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

95

BETUWE LINE INTERMODAL CORRIDOR IN 2020

DEDICATED TO FREIGHT IN 2007 RTD-ZEVENAAR

EMMERICH/OBERHAUSEN BY 2015

GAUGE “C”

TECHNICAL SPECIFICATION DOUBLE STACK

LONGER TRAINS 1500M

CORRIDORS MANAGEMENT

STANDARDISED EUROPEAN ERTMS/ETCS LEVEL 2-3

HUBS/TERMINALS ADEQUATE TO NEW CAPACITY

LINE’S CAPACITY DOES NOT MAKE NECESSARY DOUBLE STACK FOR THE TIME BEING

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

96

NEWOPERA PROJECT

STRENGHTS AND ORIGINALITY

VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES HYPOTHESIS & REAL COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS

SCENARIOS TO BE COMPARED TO A “IF NOT” STRATEGY (IF NOT MEANS NEW MOTORWAYS MEGA TRUCKS CONGESTION, CLIMATE CHANGE etc)

TOTAL INFRA INVESTMENT LIMITED AND REALISTIC MAXIMISE THE USE OF EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE

RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE ENCOURAGED : ROLLING STOCK UPGRADE(EIB ?)

ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVES(INCITATIVE TOLLS ?)

UPGRADING SIDINGS AND EQUIPMENT FOR LONGER TRAINS

INSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

97

BASIC CONCLUSIONS IN

EXTREME SYNTHESIS

NO NEED TO BUILD FROM SCRATCH A NEW FREIGHT NETWORK FOR ACHIEVING MODAL SHIFT TO RAIL

PROPER ADAPTATIONS COUPLED WITH THE COMPLETION OF ONGOING PROJECTS - EXISTING NETWORK CAN SUSTAIN A THREEFOLD INCREASE OF TRAFFIC IF PROPER MEASURES RECOMMENDED BY NEWOPERA PROJECT ARE IMPLEMENTED

INVESTING IN RAIL IS THE RIGHT CHOICE FOR DEALING WITH THE FREIGHT TRAFFIC INCREASE. IT IS THE BEST COST-EFFECTIVE SOLUTION FOR SOCIETY

Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

HARMONISE TECHNICALPARAMETERS

REMOVING BOTTLENECKS

FACILITATE OPERATION

REMOVE ADMIN. BARRIERS

INCREASE CAPACITY

IMPROVE INTERPERABILITY

ELIMINATE DISCREPANCIES

PROVIDE SEAMLESS TRAFFIC

98

THANK YOU! Brussels- Sept 30th 2008

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ON ALL PRESENTED DIMENSIONS ARE

DESCRIBED IN DETAIL ON THE NEWOPERA REPORT BOOK DISTRIBUTED TO ALL OF YOU

ALL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE ON THE 24 DELIVERABLES PRESENTED TO THE EU

COMMISSION

NEWOPERA PROJECT IS FINISHING TODAY

- 45 MONTHS OF RESEARCH -


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