1 1

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2018

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Market Cues

Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.

U.S. Stocks turned in a lackluster performance during the last trading session. The

major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line

before closing mixed. The Dow Jones dipped by 0.2% to 24,753 and the Nasdaq

climbed up by 0.1% to 7,434.

U.K. stocks rose modestly during the last trading session to rebound from two days

of losses as the pound selloff resumed amid growing Brexit uncertainty and after the

release of first-quarter GDP data. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.2% at

7,730.

On domestic front, Indian shares closed higher for a third day running on Monday

and the rupee hit a two-week high as geopolitical worries abated and a steep drop

in oil prices helped ease investor worries over inflation and twin deficits. The BSE

Sensex closed up by 0.7% at 35,165.

News Analysis

Increasing Target Price of GMM Pfaudler to ' 1020

L&T Construction secures two major orders worth Rs 57.04 billion

Detailed analysis on Pg2

Investor’s Ready Reckoner

Key Domestic & Global Indicators

Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks

Refer Pg5 onwards

Top Picks

Company Sector Rating CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%)

Blue Star Capital Goods Buy 704 867 23.1

Dewan Housing Finance Financials Accumulate 629 720 14.4

Parag Milk Foods Others Buy 341 410 20.2

Navkar Corporation Others Buy 155 265 70.5

KEI Industries Capital Goods Buy 478 589 23.2

More Top Picks on Pg4

Key Upcoming Events

Date Region Event Description Previous

Reading

Consensus

Expectations

May 29, 2018 US Consumer Confidence 128.70 128.00

May 30, 2018 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) 2.30 2.30

May 30, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 0.20 0.20

May 30, 2018 Germany Unemployment change (000's) (7.00) (10.00)

May 31, 2018 Germany PMI Manufacturing 56.80 56.80

More Events on Pg7

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 0.7 241 35,165

Nifty 0.8 83 10,689

Mid Cap 1.3 215 16,119

Small Cap 1.6 274 17,426

Bankex 1.2 350 29,891

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones (0.2) (59) 24,753

Nasdaq 0.1 9 7,434

FTSE 0.2 14 7,730

Nikkei (1.1) (239) 22,242

Hang Seng (0.4) (118) 30,674

Shanghai Com 0.0 1 3,136

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,853 1,295

Declines 867 508

Unchanged 158 67

Volumes (` Cr)

BSE 3,130

NSE 30,128

Net Inflows (̀ Cr) Net Mtd Ytd

FII (2,047) (8,950) (1,553)

*MFs 760 10,529 56,282

Top Gainers Price (` ) Chg (%)

JUSTDIAL 609 20.0

CANFINHOME 400 10.8

IBVENTUREPP 259 10.0

J&KBANK 57 9.3

ORIENTBANK 85 8.7

Top Losers Price (` ) Chg (%)

PCJEWELLER 179 -7.2

AVANTI 1819 -6.8

NIITTECH 1068 -4.8

DIVISLAB 1092 -4.7

MPHASIS 1072 -4.3

As on May 28, 2018

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2018

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News Analysis

Increasing Target Price of GMM Pfaudler to ' 1020

GMM Pfaudler has given 31% returns since our coverage initiated on the stock,

last month. In view of continued traction in its user industries like Pharma and

Agrochemical, we are increasing our target price to ' 1020 ( revised target

multiple of 24x on its FY2020 earnings). In view of limited upside, we maintain

accumulate rating on the stock.

L&T Construction secures two major orders worth Rs 57.04 billion

Larsen & Toubro's construction arm has won orders worth Rs 57.04 billion in

domestic market. "The water and effluent treatment business of L&T

Construction has secured orders worth Rs 57.04 billion".

L&T has won two major orders from the Narmada Valley Development

Authority (NVDA), government of Madhya Pradesh, for execution of Indira Sagar

Project- Parwati phases I and II and Kalisindh phase I Micro Lift Irrigation Schemes.

The company has also received an EPC order from the Madhya Pradesh Jal

Nigam Maryadit for execution of Buxwaha Multi Village Rural Water Supply

Scheme.

Economic and Political News

According to foreign affairs, Economic diplomacy attracted over $209bn in

investments

AP govt likely to raise money from bond market to fund capital city project

EESL to invest Rs 36 bn in UP, to raise funds form Asian Development Bank

NIC rolls out Rs 2bn data centre at Bhubaneswar, its fourth in the country

Corporate News

ITC to acquire leading floor cleaner brand Nimyle for undisclosed sum

Munjal-Burman group agrees to re-open bidding, Fortis board undecided

Oil India posts higher Q4 net profit on better crude realisation

Ramdev's Patanjali ties up with BSNL, launches Swadeshi Samriddhi SIM cards

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2018

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Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

M&M Ltd – May 29, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 13112 11125 17.9 11577 13.3

EBIDTA 1880 938 100.4 1495 25.8

% 14.3 8.4

16.2

PAT 1049 725 44.7 1216 (13.7)

Power grid Corporation of India Ltd – May 29, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 7724 6712 15.0 7506 2.9

EBIDTA 6917 5618 23.1 6636 4.2

% 89.5 83.7

88.4

PAT 2258 1916 17.8 2041 10.6

BHEL Ltd – May 29, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 10547 9688 8.8 6626 59.2

EBIDTA 903 651 38.7 295 206.0

% 8.6 6.7

4.5

PAT 462 215 114.9 153 202.0

Coal India Ltd – May 29, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 24719 23171 6.7 21643 14.2

EBIDTA 6460 3387 90.7 4618 39.9

% 26.1 14.6

49.0

PAT 4341 2716 59.8 3005 44.5

BEL Ltd – May 29, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 3452 3988 (13.4) 2513 37.4

EBIDTA 718 980 (26.7) 445 61.3

% 20.8 24.6

49.0

PAT 541 792 31.7 303 78.5

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2018

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Top Picks

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%) Rationale

Alkem Laboratories 24,271 2,030 2,441 20.2

Strong growth in domestic business due to its

leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem

expects to launch more products in USA, which

bodes for it s international business.

Blue Star 6,763 704 867 23.1

Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well

for Cooling products business which is out pacing

the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability

to improve once operating environment turns

around.

Dewan Housing Finance 19,743 629 720 14.4

With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)

consumer segment, the company has increased its

presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth

opportunity i s immense.

ICICI Bank 192,406 299 416 39.0

Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives

sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster

resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost ,

which would help to report better ROE.

KEI Industries 3,746 478 589 23.2

High order book execution in EPC segment, rising

B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues

and profitability

Music Broadcast Limited 1,940 340 475 39.7

Expected to benefit from the lower capex

requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast

licensing.

Navkar Corporation 2,339 155 265 70.5

Massive capacity expansion along with rail

advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the

company

Siyaram Silk Mills 2,938 627 851 35.8

Strong brands and distribution network would

boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at

an inexpensive valuation.

Maruti 262,986 8,706 10,619 22.0

GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to

improve the company’s sales volume and margins,

respectively.

GIC Housing 2,190 407 655 61.1

We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next

two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM

improvement

LT Foods 2,434 76 128 68.2

We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over

next two years on the back of strong di stribution

network & addition of new products in portfolio.

Safari Industries 1,425 641 750 17.1

Third largest brand play in luggage segment

Increased product offerings and improving

distribution network is leading to strong growth in

business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4

years

HSIL Ltd 2,532 350 510 45.6

We expect HSIL to report PAT CAGR of ~15% over

FY2017-20E owing to better improvement in

operating margin due price hike in container glass

segment, turnaround in consumer business.

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Top Picks

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%) Rationale

Aditya Birla Capital 32,169 146 218 49.2

We expect financialisation of savings and

increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund

would ensure steady growth.

Parag Milk Foods 2,870 341 410 20.2

One of the leading Indian dairy products

companies in India created strong brands in dairy

products. Rising revenue share of high-margin

Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost

is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few

years.

Matrimony.com Ltd 1,720 757 1,016 34.2

We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of

~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to

strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage

related services. On the bottom-line front, we

expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same

period on the back margin improvement.

HDFC Bank 530,380 2,042 2,315 13.4

HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the

4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.

Steady growth in interest income and other income

aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise

and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning

visibility. At the current market price, the bank is

trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.

M&M 105,621 850 990 16.5

We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy

growth in automobile segment (on back of new

launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and

strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its

strong brand recall and improvement in rural

sentiment

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2018

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Fundamental Call

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%) Rationale

CCL Products 4,150 312 360 15.4

CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory

over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and

new geographical foray

Nilkamal 2,547 1,707 2,178 27.6

We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of

~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of

healthy demand growth in plastic divi sion. On the

bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to

`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.

Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,620 2,044 2,500 22.3

Elantas Beck India i s the Indian market leader in

liquid insulation segment used in electrical

equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives

demand from several industries which are expected

to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming

years.

Greenply Industries 3,408 278 395 42.1

Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood

& allied products and medium density fibreboards

(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to

~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy

growth in plywood & lamination business on the

back of strong brand and di stribution network

GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,362 932 1020 9.5

GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market

leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is

expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the

next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from

user industries and it is also expecting to increase its

share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.

L&T Finance Holding 34,586 173 210 21.2

L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve

ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of

`3000cr would support advance growth.

2

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2018

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Key Upcoming Events

Result Calendar

Date Company

May 29, 2018 M&M, BHEL, IOB, Coal India, BPCL, Siyaram Silk Mills, Glenmark Pharma., Ipca labs, Power Grid Corpn, MT Educare

May 30, 2018 Crompton Greaves, BGR Energy , J & K Bank, SAIL, Monnet Ispat, ONGC, Tree House , HSIL, Banco, Tide Water Oil

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period

Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 29, 2018 7:30 PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 May 128.70 128.00

May 30, 2018 6:00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 2.30 2.30

2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value May F 0.20 0.20

1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May (7.00) (10.00)

May 31, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value May F 56.80 56.80

6:00 PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands May 26 234.00 229.50

Jun 01, 2018 6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 51.40 51.40

6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 164.00 190.00

6:00 PM US Unnemployment rate % May 3.90 3.90

2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 53.90 53.50

Jun 05, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Services Value May F 52.10

Jun 06, 2018 2:30 PM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 6 5.75 5.75

2:30 PM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 6 6.00 6.00

2:30 PM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 6 4.00 4.00

Jun 07, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q F 0.40

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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Market Outlook

May 29, 2018

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 28 May, 2018

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

7.3 7.6

8.0

7.2

9.1

8.1

7.6

6.8

6.1

5.7

6.5

7.2

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

4Q

FY16

1Q

FY17

2Q

FY17

3Q

FY17

4Q

FY17

1Q

FY18

2Q

FY18

3Q

FY18

(%)

2.9

(0.3)

1.0

4.8

4.1

1.8

8.5

7.3 7.4 7.0

4.4

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

(%)

2.2

1.5

2.4

3.3 3.3

3.6

4.9

5.2 5.1

4.4 4.3

4.6

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

(%)

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0 M

ar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

Jul-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Apr-18

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

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Market Outlook

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Global watch

Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

0.3

2.5

5.3

6.9

1.1

5.0

5.8

3.7

1.5

2.2

0.8

1.8

1.4

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Bra

zil

Russia

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

South

Africa

Ind

onesia

Ma

laysia

Tha

ilan

d

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Ja

pa

n

(%)

0.7

1.8

6.7 6.8

0.7

5.2 5.4

3.7

1.7

2.2 2.0

1.6 1.5

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South A

frica

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(%)

11

.2

5.7

19

.2

11

.9

15

.7

16

.1

15

.2

15

.3

13

.7

15

.9

13

.1

14

.5

13

.7

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South

Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(x)

5

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Market Outlook

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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe

Returns (%)

Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR

Brazil Bovespa 75,356 (11.4) (13.7) 22.2

Russia Micex 4,491 1.4 7.1 11.4

India Nifty 10,689 1.1 2.8 14.2

China Shanghai Composite 3,135 0.6 (4.0) 1.5

South Africa Top 40 50,551 (0.6) (0.9) 6.3

Mexico Mexbol 44,851 (6.7) (7.6) (9.7)

Indonesia LQ45 978 (3.3) (11.5) 2.6

Malaysia KLCI 1,776 (5.9) (4.4) (0.1)

Thailand SET 50 1,141 (3.0) (2.4) 16.1

USA Dow Jones 24,753 2.8 (2.2) 17.4

UK FTSE 7,730 4.1 6.2 2.7

Japan Nikkei 22,481 1.8 2.3 14.8

Germany DAX 12,863 2.5 3.2 2.1

France CAC 5,509 1.8 3.8 3.6

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

6

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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls

Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status

04-05-2018 Top Picks M&M 860 990 Open

03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open

02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open

04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open

20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984

15-05-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 310 410 Open

16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333

29-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 932 1,020 Open

14-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 818 900

06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861

07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)

03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open

16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open

21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650

16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510 Open

07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open

04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open

03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open

01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)

30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed

Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd

160 Closed (09/05/2018)

21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131

18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)

14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)

17-05-2018 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 280

Closed(17/05/2018)

28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400

19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open

06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96

16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)

11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open

10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open

20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434

07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)

06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)

05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open

05-06-2017 Top Picks Karur Vysya Bank 127 100 Closed (12/03/2018)

23-05-2018 Top Picks KEI Industries 481 589 Open

04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485

01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441 Open

17-10-2016 Top Picks Asian Granito 267 534 Closed (18/02/2018)

17-05-2018 Top Picks TV Today Network 460

Closed (17/05/2018)

04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603

05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open

05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open

08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open

30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open

7

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Source: Company, Angel Research

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com

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offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any in vestment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financia l advice. Each recipient of this document should

make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the

companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine

the merits and risks of such an investment.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positio ns and

trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's

fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evalu ate the

contrary view, if any.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reli able

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document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in a ny way

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While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be

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