Singapore Post Limited (SingPost) Board of Directors announced that Dr Wolfgang Baier, Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO), has submitted his resignation. Dr Baier will support a handover until 30 June 2016 or earlier.
Please note that this week’s webinar was our last for this year; our webinars will resume in January 2016.
In this week’s webinar, we gave our take on the upcoming IPO BHG Retail REIT, and compared the new REIT with closest peer CapitaLand Retail China Trust.
Our webinars are an opportunity for clients, remisiers, and sales staff, to ask questions on our coverage and the market's direction. We hope to have as many of you as possible.
The Straits Times Index (STI) ended 12.73 points or 0.44% lower to 2848.46, taking the year-to-date performance to -15.35%.
The top active stocks were DBS, which declined 0.30%, Ascendas Reit, which declined 4.20%, SingTel, which gained 1.05%, OCBC Bank, which declined 0.46% and UOB, with a 0.67% fall. The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined 0.81%, while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined 0.65%.
The outperforming sectors were represented by the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index, which rose 1.00%. The two biggest stocks of the Index - SingTel and StarHub – ended 1.05% higher and 1.12% higher respectively.
The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index, which slipped 1.13%. CapitaMall Trust shares declined1.30% and Ascendas REIT declined 4.20%.
Source: SGX Masnet, Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
MACRO DATA
U.S.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to a five-month high last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with tightening conditions.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the week ended Dec. 5, the highest level since early July. The four-week moving average of claims rose only 1,500 to 270,750 last week.
Claims have now been below the 300,000 threshold, which is normally associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 40 straight weeks. As the labor market approaches full employment there is probably little room for further declines.
Cheaper crude oil and a strong dollar kept imported inflation pressures subdued in November, leaving inflation running well below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Import prices fell 0.4% m-m and were down 9.4% y-y in November. Import prices have dropped in 15 of the last 17 months. Import prices excluding petroleum slipped 0.3% m-m after falling 0.4% in October.
Meanwhile, export prices decreased 0.6% m-m and were down 6.3% y-y in November. Malaysia
October’s industrial production rose 4.2% y-y (vs 5.1% in Sep), supported by strength in the manufacturing and electricity sectors. The figure was slightly below the median forecast of 4.3% from a Reuters poll of economists.
Source: Reuters, Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Current Sentiment: Bearish Support 1: 0.265 Resistance 1: 0.375 Support 2: 0.245 Resistance 2: 0.390
The downtrend here still appears healthy with the 20 and 60 day moving average defending price perfectly to the downside.
0.300 was holding price up for the past 2 weeks but sellers finally drove price below it on 09/12/15.
The next likely move is to the downside with 0.265 support areas as the target followed by 0.245 all-time low.
CapitaLand Mall Trust - Daily timeframe
Current Sentiment: Bullish Support 1: 1.850 Resistance 1: 1.990 Support 2: 1.815 Resistance 2: 2.030
1.850 proved to be a resilient support as price rebounded off 1.850 for numerous occasions back in 15/09/15, 16/11/15 and 10/12/15.
Moreover, the 10/12/15 rejection formed a hammer suggesting further upside. If the high of the hammer gets taken out, price could be heading to test 1.990 resistance area followed by 2.030.
China Everbright Water Ltd – Daily timeframe
Current Sentiment: Bearish Support 1: 0.620 Resistance 1: 0.720 Support 2: 0.590 Resistance 2: 0.770 Price headed back into the downtrend after it tested the 0.770 support turned resistance area and the 20, 60 day moving average subsequently held price down.
The bearish break below 0.66 support area could signal further downside to 0.620 support area followed by 0.590.
7Red line = 20 day moving average, blue line = 60 day moving average, Green line = 200 day moving average Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Page | 4
Singapore Morning Note
MARKET WATCH
Asia-Pacific 1 month change Level 1M (%) 1Y (%)
Nikkei 225 JP ||| 19,046.55 (3.0) 10.7
KOSPI KO || 1,952.07 (2.0) 2.2
CSI 300 CN ||||||| 3,623.08 (5.5) 13.8
HSCEI CN |||||||||| 9,450.49 (7.8) (16.0)
Taiex TW ||| 8,216.17 (2.4) (8.8)
Hang Seng HK ||| 21,704.61 (2.9) (6.9)
Sensex IN || 25,252.32 (1.9) (9.3)
Nifty IN | 7,683.30 (1.3) (8.0)
SET TH ||||||||| 1,297.82 (7.2) (16.8)
KLCI MY | 1,648.65 (1.0) (5.5)
STI SG ||||| 2,848.46 (4.5) (14.2)
JCI ID 4,466.21 0.3 (13.3)
Phil Comp PH ||| 6,820.60 (2.3) (3.6)
S&P/ASX 200 AU | 5,037.72 (1.5) (3.5)
US/Europe 1 month change Level 1M (%) 1Y (%)
DJIA US | 17,574.75 (1.0) 0.2
NASDAQ Comp US 5,045.17 (0.7) 7.7
S&P 500 US | 2,052.23 (1.4) 1.3
FTSE 100 UK ||| 6,088.05 (3.0) (6.3)
DAX GR || 10,598.93 (2.2) 8.2
CAC 40 FR ||||||| 4,635.06 (5.6) 9.6
Euro STOXX 50 EU ||||| 3,269.97 (4.5) 3.8
VIX US 19.34
Currencies X-Rate 1M (%) 1Y (%)
Yen JP || 121.56 0.7 (2.7)
Won KO |||||||| 1,181.53 (1.9) (6.5)
RMB CN |||| 6.4386 (1.2) (4.1)
NT$ TW | 32.85 (0.3) (4.9)
HK$ HK 7.75 0.0 0.0
Rs IN || 66.72 (0.6) (7.0)
RM MY |||||||| 4.26 2.5 (18.1)
S$ SG |||| 1.40 1.1 (6.5)
P PH 47.26 0.1 (5.5)
Rp ID |||||||||| 13,953 (2.4) (11.6)
A$ AU |||||||||| 0.73 2.8 (12.2)
Euro EU |||||| 1.09 1.8 (11.8)
GBP UK | 1.52 (0.4) (3.7)
Bt TH || 36.07 (0.5) (8.9)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15
Hang Seng Index
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15
CSI300
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15
Yen
1.0
1.2
1.4
Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15
Euro
Source: Bloomberg
Page | 5
Singapore Morning Note
SINGAPORE AND US ECONOMIC CALENDAR
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
29 30 01 02 03 04 05US: Mfg. PMI final Nov
(54.1p)[52.6p]{52.8p}
SG: Manufacturing PMI Nov
(48.9p)[49p]{49.2p}
US: Jobless Claims Nov
(2155k)[2187k]{2161k}
US: Balance of Trade Oct (-
$42.6bn)[-$40.5bn]{-$43.9bn}
US: Mfg. Employment Nov
(51.3p)[47.6p]{48.5p}
US: Total Vehicle Sales Nov
(18.24m)[17.9m]{18.19m}
US: Non-Mfg. PMI Nov
(59.1p)[58p]{55.9p}
US: Non Farm Payrolls Nov
(298k)[200k]{211k}
US: Employment Change Nov
(196k)[190k]{217k}
US: Unemployment Rate Nov
(5.0%)[5.0%]{5.0%}
06 07 08 09 10 11 12SG: Foreign Reserves Nov
(S$349.8bn)[-]{S$348.37bn}
US: Consumer Credit Chg Oct
($28.6bn)[$20bn]{$15.98bn}
SG: COE CAT A Dec
(S$56.832k)[-]{S$56.989k}
US: Import Price Index mom
Nov (-0.3%)[-0.8%]{-0.4%}
US: Retail Sales Adv. Mom Nov
(0.1%)[0.2%]{-}
SG: COE CAT B Dec
(S$57.798k)[-]{S$60.001k}
US: Import Price Index yoy Nov
(-10.5%)[-10.2%]{-9.4%}
US: Business Inventories Oct
(0.3%)[0.1%]{-}
SG: COE CAT C Dec
(S$44.831k)[-]{S$48.101k}
SG: Manpower Survey 1Q
(9.0%)[-]{13.0%}
13 14 15 16 17 18 19SG: Unemployment Rate 3Q
(2.0%)[2.0%]{-}
US: Housing Starts Nov
(1060k)[1139.8k]{-}
SG: Non-Oil Exports mom Nov
(1.1%)[0.9%]{-}
SG: Retail Sales yoy Oct
(4.6%)[3.0%]{-}
US: Housing Starts mom Nov (-
11.0%)[7.5%]{-}
SG: Non-Oil Exports yoy Nov (-
0.5%)[1.3%]{-}
SG: Retail Sales mom Oct (-
3.7%)[0.9%]{-}
US: IPI mom Nov (-0.2%)[0.0%]{-
}
US: FOMC Rate Decision
(Upper) (0.3%)[0.5%]{-}
US: CPI mom Nov (0.2%)[0.0%]{-
}
US: FOMC Rate Decision
(Lower) (0.0%)[0.2%]{-}
20 21 22 23 24 25 26US: GDP Annualized qoq 3Q
(2.1%)[-]{-}SG: CPI mom Nov (-0.4%)[-]{-} SG: IPI yoy Nov (-5.4%)[-]{-}
US: GDP Price Index 3Q (1.3%)[-
]{-}SG: CPI yoy Nov (-0.8%)[-]{-} SG: IPI mom Nov (2.5%)[-]{-}
US: Personal Consumption 3Q
(3.0%)[-]{-}
US: Personal Income Nov
(0.4%)[-]{-}
US: Personal Spending Nov
(0.1%)[-]{-}
27 28 29 30 31 01 02US: Consumer Confidence Index
Dec (90.4p)[-]{-}
SG: Bank Loans and Adv yoy
Nov (-0.4%)[-]{-}
SG: Money Supply M1 yoy Nov (-
1.1%)[-]{-}
SG: Money Supply M2 yoy Nov
(2.9%)[-]{-}
SG: Credit Card Billings Nov
($4115.3mn)[-]{-}
03 04 NOTES:
Previous stats number (), forecast [] and actual {}
DECEMBER 2015
Source: Bloomberg; PSR
Page | 6
Singapore Morning Note
CORPORATE EVENTS CALENDAR
EARNING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Date Company Status Fiscal period11 Dec 15 China Essence Est. Q211 Dec 15 JES Internationa Est. Q311 Dec 15 Qingmei Grp Est. Q111 Dec 15 Abundance International Est. Y11 Dec 15 Lifebrandz Est. Q111 Dec 15 PNE Micron Hldg Est. Y11 Dec 15 Ipco Intl Est. Q211 Dec 15 Huationg Global Est. Q311 Dec 15 Asiatravel.com Est. Y11 Dec 15 Choo Chiang Holdings Est. Q311 Dec 15 Goodland Group Est. Y11 Dec 15 Dyna-Mac Est. Q311 Dec 15 Singapore O&G Est. Q311 Dec 15 Pac Andes Est. Y11 Dec 15 China Fishery Est. Y11 Dec 15 Low Keng Huat Est. Q314 Dec 15 Cedar Strategic Est. Q314 Dec 15 Novo Group Conf. Q215 Dec 15 CNA Group Est. Q315 Dec 15 Xpress Holdings Est. Q117 Dec 15 DMX Technologies Est. Q317 Dec 15 Pavillon Holdings Est. Y17 Dec 15 Lantrovision Est. Q124 Dec 15 Ecowise Est. Y30 Dec 15 China Flexible Packaging Est. Y
DIVIDENDS
Ex-date Company S$ Type15 Dec 15 AReit 0.0306 Pro Rata21 Dec 15 SingTel 0.068 Interim28 Dec 15 CNMC Goldmine 0.0018 Interim28 Dec 15 OSIM 0.01 3Rd Interim31 Dec 15 Falcon Energy 0.005 Interim6 Jan 16 Second Chance Properties 0.0355 Final3 Feb 16 F&N 0.03 Final3 Feb 16 Frasers Centerpoint 0.062 Final15 Feb 16 Avi-Tech Electronics 0.007 Special Cash
Source: Bloomberg
Page | 7
Singapore Morning Note
PHILLIP SECURITIES RESEARCH – SINGAPORE STOCK COVERAGE
Company Analyst Last report Rating Target Price
(S$) Price (S$)
Change since last report (%)
Upside to TP (%)
Consumer Goods
OSIM Soh Lin Sin 28-Oct-15 Neutral 1.440 1.060 (26.4) 35.8
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Page | 9
Singapore Morning Note
Contact Information (Singapore Research Team) Management Research Operations Officer Chan Wai Chee (CEO, Research - Special Opportunities) - [email protected]
