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Maximum mitigation potential of natural climate solutions in Colombia: protecting and restoring natural forests and managing agricultural lands The NCS for NDCs project aims to assess the mitigation potential of priority NCS pathways in Colombia, China and Indonesia. Here we present preliminary results of the mitigation assessment (assuming a potential carbon price of >100 USD t CO 2 e -1 ) of Avoided Forest Conversion, Forest Restoration, and Trees in Agricultural Lands in Colombia. The problem Diego Navarrete ¶* , Juanita González ¶ , Deissy Arango ¶ , Jorge Velásquez-Tibatá ¶ , Mauricio Echeverry ¶ , Juliana Delgado ¶ , Margarita Gutiérrez ¶ , María Ordóñez ¶ , Andrés Zuluaga ¶ , Sara Leavitt ǂ , Susan Cook-Patton ǂ , Bronson Griscom ¤ Country- and region-specific spatial information (i.e. biomes, ecosystems, past and projected deforestation, National Restoration Plan, agriculture frontier) and carbon trajectories in natural forests and during implementation of forest restoration and silvopastoral systems were used to estimate maximum mitigation potential of NCS pathways in Colombia Avoided Forest Conversion Forest Restoration Trees in Ag Lands 0.22 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 0.12 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 0.08 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 35% 24% 14% 6% 21% 62% 10% 11% 11% 4% Global Colombia The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector emits around 24% of total emissions globally 1 , but in Colombia its contribution increases to 62% of the country’s GHG emissions, mainly due to deforestation, forest degradation and conventional cattle ranching 2 . The (natural climate) solutions Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) have the potential to provide more than 30% of global mitigation required by 2030 3 . For Colombia, the NCS pathways of Avoided Forest Conversion, Reforestation and Trees in Agricultural Lands have the largest potential to mitigate climate change and to contribute to meeting Colombian emissions reduction in it Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC: 20% compared to baseline) to the Paris Climate Change Agreement 4 . Approach and methods Maximum mitigation potential NCS for NDCs - Colombia We find an annual mitigation potential (at > 100 USD t CO 2 e -1 ) of 0.42 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 . Avoided Forest Conversion represents 52% of the opportunity, while Forest Restoration and Trees in Ag Lands represent 29% and 19%, respectively. ¶ The Nature Conservancy – Colombia; ǂ The Nature Conservancy – Arlington, VA; ¤ Conservation International; *[email protected] 1 IPCC (2019), Climate change and lands. IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse gas fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. Shukla et al. Eds.; 2 IDEAM (2016), Inventario nacional de gases de efecto invernadero. Bogotá, Colombia; 3 Griscom et al. (2017), Natural climate solutions. PNAS, 114, 11645-11650; 4 Griscom et al. (2020), National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics, Phil. Trans. B, 375: 20190126. Next steps • Cost-effective analysis of each NCS pathway at different carbon prices (USD t CO 2 e -1 ): $5 (price for C tax in Colombia), $20, $50, $100; • Co-benefits (biodiversity and water) associated with each pathway; • Policy and private sector analysis to implement NCS in Colombia. 617 – 341 341 – 169 169 – 51 t CO 2 e ha -1 211 – 158 158 – 106 106 – 52 t CO 2 e ha -1 111 – 56 56 – 33 33 – 12 t CO 2 e ha -1 Deforestation (36%) Cattle ranching (26%) Area: 7.1 Mha Area: 15.4 Mha Area: 10.7 Mha
