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May 13, 2016 Result Update ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Duty imposition augurs well for new facility Century Plyboard’s (CPIL) topline grew 11.4% YoY to | 451.2 crore above our expectation of | 412.3 crore on the back of higher-than- expected growth in revenue from plywood division, which grew 9.9% YoY to | 320.7 crore (vs. our estimate of | 293.2 crore) and laminate division, which grew 14.7% YoY to | 92.3 crore (vs. our estimate of | 78.6 crore). In volume terms, plywood division volumes grew 4.4% YoY to 50725 CBM while laminates division volumes grew 17.9% YoY to 1.2 million sheets The EBITDA margin contracted 246 bps YoY to 17.1%, on account of contraction of 470 bps in the EBIT margin of plywood division on account of higher employee & advertisement expenses and higher discounts availed, which were not provisioned earlier The bottomline de-grew 15.6% YoY to | 40.5 crore on account of higher-than-expected effective tax rate (26.2% in Q4FY16 vs. 19.1% in Q3FY16). However, it was above our estimate of | 32.9 crore CPIL to benefit from anti dumping duty imposition… The government is set to impose anti-dumping duty on imports of a specific type of fibre board having thickness of 6 mm and above in the range of US$14.71-64.35/CBM for five years from Indonesia and Vietnam. Currently, it is awaiting Finance Ministry approval. With ~30% of domestic demand being catered by imports, we believe this duty imposition could throw up incremental opportunity of ~1,10,000 CBM for domestic players (assuming that ~70-75% imports happen in MDF of >6mm thickness). Currently, CPIL is setting up an MDF facility in North with capacity of 1,80,000 CBM and investment of | 380 crore. The company has fast-tracked the construction of its MDF plant and is expected to come on stream by January, 2017 (six months ahead of schedule). In our view, this duty imposition augurs well for CPIL as its MDF facility is well set to cater the incremental demand arising from dipping imports. Further, the management expects this new capacity to operate at 70% capacity utilisation in FY18E. Laminates division continues to perform well… The laminates division has again performed well with revenue growth of 14.7% YoY to | 92.3 crore while the EBIT margins expanded 670 bps YoY to 14.7%. In terms of yearly performance, laminate revenues grew 14.2% YoY to | 335.3 crore while EBIT margins expanded 550 bps YoY to 13.3%. Further, CPIL is doing well in exports as laminate revues from exports grew 26% YoY to | 82.4 crore in FY16. Going ahead, we expect its laminate segment revenues to grow at 15.8% CAGR to | 449.5 crore in FY16-18E while its EBIT margin is expected to expand 70 bps to 13.5% over FY16-18E. To benefit from expanding organised pie; maintain BUY... We expect revenues/net profit to grow at 19.2%/19.1% CAGR to | 2354.6 crore/| 238.6 crore, respectively, over FY16-18E on the back of commissioning of MDF capacity in H1CY17. Further, imposition of anti- dumping duty would help CPIL capture incremental demand. We continue to like CPIL as we envisage the Indian organised plywood player’s pie (currently ~30% of total plywood market) will expand in coming years on the back of structural changes like rollout of GST and higher brand aspirations. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation on CPIL with revised price target of | 205. We value CPIL at 19x FY18 EPS (at 1x PEG). Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY) | 171 Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : | 205 Target Period : 12-18 months Potential Upside : 20% What’s Changed? Target Changed from | 190 to | 205 EPS FY17E Changed from | 8.8 to | 8.4 EPS FY18E Changed from | 10.9 to | 10.7 Rating Unchanged Quarterly Performance (| crore) Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%) Revenue 451.2 404.9 11.4 388.6 16.1 EBITDA 77.3 79.4 -2.6 69.6 11.1 EBITDA (%) 17.1 19.6 -246 bps 17.9 -77 bps PAT 40.5 48.0 -15.6 41.6 -2.6 Key Financials (| Crore) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Sales 1,564.8 1,658.5 1,825.4 2,354.6 EBITDA 264.3 287.5 323.2 425.3 Net Profit 150.8 168.1 187.4 238.6 EPS (|) 6.8 7.6 8.4 10.7 Valuation summary (x) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E P/E 25.2 22.6 20.3 15.9 Target P/E 30.2 27.1 24.3 19.1 EV / EBITDA 16.2 14.7 14.0 10.7 P/BV 9.8 7.2 5.8 4.7 RoNW (%) 38.9 31.8 28.8 29.6 RoCE (%) 25.2 24.9 19.1 21.7 Stock data Particular Amount (| crore) Market Capitalization 3,799.2 Total Debt 432.0 Cash 17.0 EV 4,214.1 52 week H/L (|) 219 / 136 Equity capital 22.3 Face value (|) 1.0 Price performance (%) (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M Greenply Industries 21.1 26.5 21.0 13.6 Century Plyboard (4.0) 24.5 (3.4) 1.9 Archidply Industries 3.0 13.5 (3.7) 58.4 Sarda Plywood (12.9) (17.5) (12.4) 53.6 Research Analyst Deepak Purswani [email protected] Vaibhav Shah [email protected]
Transcript
Page 1: May 13, 2016 Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Century... · Leading plywood player in India… CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and

May 13, 2016

Result Update

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Duty imposition augurs well for new facility • Century Plyboard’s (CPIL) topline grew 11.4% YoY to | 451.2 crore

above our expectation of | 412.3 crore on the back of higher-than-expected growth in revenue from plywood division, which grew 9.9% YoY to | 320.7 crore (vs. our estimate of | 293.2 crore) and laminate division, which grew 14.7% YoY to | 92.3 crore (vs. our estimate of | 78.6 crore). In volume terms, plywood division volumes grew 4.4% YoY to 50725 CBM while laminates division volumes grew 17.9% YoY to 1.2 million sheets

• The EBITDA margin contracted 246 bps YoY to 17.1%, on account of contraction of 470 bps in the EBIT margin of plywood division on account of higher employee & advertisement expenses and higher discounts availed, which were not provisioned earlier

• The bottomline de-grew 15.6% YoY to | 40.5 crore on account of higher-than-expected effective tax rate (26.2% in Q4FY16 vs. 19.1% in Q3FY16). However, it was above our estimate of | 32.9 crore

CPIL to benefit from anti dumping duty imposition… The government is set to impose anti-dumping duty on imports of a specific type of fibre board having thickness of 6 mm and above in the range of US$14.71-64.35/CBM for five years from Indonesia and Vietnam. Currently, it is awaiting Finance Ministry approval. With ~30% of domestic demand being catered by imports, we believe this duty imposition could throw up incremental opportunity of ~1,10,000 CBM for domestic players (assuming that ~70-75% imports happen in MDF of >6mm thickness). Currently, CPIL is setting up an MDF facility in North with capacity of 1,80,000 CBM and investment of | 380 crore. The company has fast-tracked the construction of its MDF plant and is expected to come on stream by January, 2017 (six months ahead of schedule). In our view, this duty imposition augurs well for CPIL as its MDF facility is well set to cater the incremental demand arising from dipping imports. Further, the management expects this new capacity to operate at 70% capacity utilisation in FY18E. Laminates division continues to perform well… The laminates division has again performed well with revenue growth of 14.7% YoY to | 92.3 crore while the EBIT margins expanded 670 bps YoY to 14.7%. In terms of yearly performance, laminate revenues grew 14.2% YoY to | 335.3 crore while EBIT margins expanded 550 bps YoY to 13.3%. Further, CPIL is doing well in exports as laminate revues from exports grew 26% YoY to | 82.4 crore in FY16. Going ahead, we expect its laminate segment revenues to grow at 15.8% CAGR to | 449.5 crore in FY16-18E while its EBIT margin is expected to expand 70 bps to 13.5% over FY16-18E. To benefit from expanding organised pie; maintain BUY... We expect revenues/net profit to grow at 19.2%/19.1% CAGR to | 2354.6 crore/| 238.6 crore, respectively, over FY16-18E on the back of commissioning of MDF capacity in H1CY17. Further, imposition of anti-dumping duty would help CPIL capture incremental demand. We continue to like CPIL as we envisage the Indian organised plywood player’s pie (currently ~30% of total plywood market) will expand in coming years on the back of structural changes like rollout of GST and higher brand aspirations. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation on CPIL with revised price target of | 205. We value CPIL at 19x FY18 EPS (at 1x PEG).

Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY) | 171

Rating matrix Rating : BuyTarget : | 205Target Period : 12-18 monthsPotential Upside : 20%

What’s Changed?

Target Changed from | 190 to | 205EPS FY17E Changed from | 8.8 to | 8.4EPS FY18E Changed from | 10.9 to | 10.7Rating Unchanged

Quarterly Performance (| crore) Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%)Revenue 451.2 404.9 11.4 388.6 16.1

EBITDA 77.3 79.4 -2.6 69.6 11.1

EBITDA (%) 17.1 19.6 -246 bps 17.9 -77 bps

PAT 40.5 48.0 -15.6 41.6 -2.6

Key Financials (| Crore) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18ENet Sales 1,564.8 1,658.5 1,825.4 2,354.6 EBITDA 264.3 287.5 323.2 425.3 Net Profit 150.8 168.1 187.4 238.6 EPS (|) 6.8 7.6 8.4 10.7

Valuation summary

(x) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18EP/E 25.2 22.6 20.3 15.9 Target P/E 30.2 27.1 24.3 19.1 EV / EBITDA 16.2 14.7 14.0 10.7 P/BV 9.8 7.2 5.8 4.7 RoNW (%) 38.9 31.8 28.8 29.6 RoCE (%) 25.2 24.9 19.1 21.7

Stock data Particular Amount (| crore)Market Capitalization 3,799.2Total Debt 432.0Cash 17.0EV 4,214.152 week H/L (|) 219 / 136Equity capital 22.3Face value (|) 1.0

Price performance (%)

(%) 1M 3M 6M 12M

Greenply Industries 21.1 26.5 21.0 13.6

Century Plyboard (4.0) 24.5 (3.4) 1.9

Archidply Industries 3.0 13.5 (3.7) 58.4

Sarda Plywood (12.9) (17.5) (12.4) 53.6

Research Analyst

Deepak Purswani [email protected]

Vaibhav Shah

[email protected]

Page 2: May 13, 2016 Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Century... · Leading plywood player in India… CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and

Page 2ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Variance analysis

Particular Q4FY16 Q4FY16E Q4FY15 Chg (%) Q3FY16 Chg (%) CommentsNet Sales 451.2 412.3 404.9 11.4 388.6 16.1 Net sales grew 11.4% to | 451.2 crore mainly on account of higher-

than-expected growth in revenue of plywood and laminates segment

Other Income 0.1 1.0 0.9 -89.9 0.7 -87.9

Material Consumed 161.1 191.3 151.7 6.2 153.4 5.0Purchase of Stock in Trade 69.0 44.3 59.7 15.5 61.2 12.8Changes in Inventories of WIP -0.6 0.0 -1.1 -43.2 -30.8 -97.9Loss/(Gain) on Forex Fluctuation -1.3 20.1 -8.3 -84.5 -3.0 -57.4Employee Benefit Expenses 62.6 30.6 52.4 19.5 59.5 5.2Other Expenses 86.6 53.4 75.4 14.9 80.8 7.2

EBITDA 77.3 65.0 79.4 -2.6 69.6 11.1EBITDA Margin (%) 17.1 15.8 19.6 -246 bps 17.9 -77 bps EBITDA margin contracted 246 bps YoY to 17.1% due to contraction

of 470 bps in the EBIT margin of the plywood & allied division and was above our expectation of 15.8%

Depreciation 12.2 15.0 11.9 3.0 11.6 5.2Interest 10.3 10.0 9.0 14.4 10.7 -3.5PBT 54.9 41.1 59.4 -7.5 48.0 943.9Taxes 14.4 8.2 11.4 26.6 6.4 124.5PAT 40.5 32.9 48.0 -15.6 41.6 -2.6 PAT de-grew 15.6% YoY to | 40.5 crore on account of higher-than-

expected effective tax rate (26.2% in Q4FY16 vs. 19.1% in Q4FY15). However, it was above our estimate of | 32.9 crore

[

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates

Particulars Comments

( | crore) Old New % change Old New % changeRevenue 1,863.8 1,825.4 -2.1 2,316.10 2,354.6 1.7 We have fine-tuned our estimates

EBITDA 330.9 323.2 -2.3 430.20 425.3 -1.1

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.8 17.7 -10 bps 18.60 18.1 -54 bps

PAT 195.6 187.4 -4.2 241.20 238.6 -1.1

EPS (|) 8.8 8.4 -4.1 10.90 10.7 -1.5

FY17E FY18E

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Assumptions

CommentsVolume Assumptions FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18EPlywood & Veneer(In CBM) 221,355 234,000 241,794 254,319 274,856 265,092 291,601MDF (CBM) 0 0 0 0 117,000 0 108,000Laminate Sheets (In Mn) 2.9 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.1 We have revised our estimates to factor in strong

performance and outlook of laminates division

Pre-laminated Boards (In Mn SQM) 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.5

Current Earlier

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 3: May 13, 2016 Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Century... · Leading plywood player in India… CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and

Page 3ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Company Analysis Anti-dumping duty imposition to change MDF industry dynamics…

The MDF industry in India accounts for a mere 5% share of the wood panel industry and is worth ~| 1400 crore. The industry is completely organised with only about five MDF manufacturers in India while remaining players trade in MDF. The demand for MDF in India is at 5,50,000 CBM of which domestic players cater to ~73% (4,00,000 CBM) while imports cater to the balance. Further, out of the total domestic capacity of 5,10,000 CBM, 78% is utilised.

The government is set to impose anti-dumping duty on imports of a specific type of fibre board having thickness of 6 mm and above in the range of US$14.71-64.35/CBM for five years from Indonesia and Vietnam. Currently, it is awaiting Finance Ministry approval. With imports catering to ~30% of domestic demand, we believe this duty imposition could throw up an incremental opportunity of ~1,10,000 CBM for domestic players (assuming that ~70-75% imports happen in MDF of >6mm thickness). Currently, CPIL is setting up an MDF facility in North with capacity of 1,80,000 CBM and investment of | 380 crore. The company has fast-tracked the construction of its MDF plant and is expected to come on stream by January, 2017 (6 months ahead of schedule). In our view, this duty imposition augurs well for CPIL as its MDF facility is well set to cater the incremental demand arising from dipping imports. Further, the management expects this new capacity to operate at 70% capacity utilisation in FY18E. In our view, CPIL’s MDF facility would be coming on stream at the right time with anti-dumping duty imposition set to create opportunities for domestic players on account of a significant dip in MDF imports. Sensing this opportunity, the company has fast-tracked its MDF project and expects it to come on stream by January, 2017 (six months ahead of schedule).

Exhibit 1: Depiction of anti-dumping duty implication…

Incremental Opportunity, 105000

CBM, 19%

Imports, 45000 CBM, 8%

Domestic Production, 400000 CBM, 73%

Domestic industry can cater to this incremental demand as it has an unutilized capacity of 1,10,000 CBM

Imports, 150000 CBM, 27%

Domestic Production, 400000 CBM, 73%

Domestic capacity of ~5,10,000 CBM

Scenario post anti-dumping duty Imposition

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 4: May 13, 2016 Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Century... · Leading plywood player in India… CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and

Page 4ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Leading plywood player in India…

CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and an aggregating capacity of 209,420 CBM, is a leading plywood player in India. At CPIL, one of the principal initiatives that was taken was the prudent addition to the capacity of respective businesses. This decision to increase production capacity in the midst of an economic slowdown was CPIL’s conviction in long-term prospects, relatively better equipment value during such periods and quicker delivery

The plywood & allied products division grew 9.9% YoY to | 320.7 crore while laminates & allied segment grew 14.7% YoY to | 92.3 crore in Q4FY16. Further, the EBITDA margin was lower for the quarter partly on account of higher employee and advertisement expenses and partly due to higher discounts availed which were not provisioned earlier.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly plywood & allied products revenue

291.

8

319.

9

275.

3

257.

6

320.

7

10.6

-6.3

6.8

-2.0

9.9

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16

(| c

rore

)

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0(%

)

Revenue YoY Growth (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 2: Quarterly plywood and allied products EBIT & EBIT margin

57.6

43.8

50.7

40.8

48.2

19.8

17.015.8

14.8 15.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16

(| c

rore

)

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

(%)

EBIT EBIT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Going ahead, we expect plywood sales volume at 274,856 CBM in FY18E with average realisation of | 50,193 per CBM. This would lead to revenue CAGR of 20.8% during FY16-18E to | 1711.1 crore.

Exhibit 3: Plywood sales volume and average realisation

2340

00

2417

94

2543

19

2748

5648.7

50.2

48.549.0

210000220000230000240000250000260000270000280000

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(CBM

)

48.0

49.0

50.0

51.0

('000

|/CB

M)

Sales Volume Average Realization

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 4: Plywood revenue and growth trend

1147

.1

1173

.5

1711

.1

1267

.9

18.9

35.0

8.02.3

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

0.05.010.0

15.020.025.030.0

35.040.0

(%)

Plywood & Allied products YoY growth (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

The plywood & allied products division grew 9.9% YoY to

| 320.7 crore while laminates & allied segment grew 14.7% YoY to | 92.3 crore in Q4FY16

Page 5: May 13, 2016 Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Century... · Leading plywood player in India… CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and

Page 5ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Laminate business: well poised in terms of capacity…

At a very early stage, CPIL recognised the need to cater to customers with a growing supply of varied interior products. Hence, the company extended from manufacture of plywood to laminates, decorative veneers etc. facilitating cross sale, superior leverage of existing brand and a better use of a robust dealer network. After creating a strong brand recall in plywood and leveraging it, going ahead, CPIL would now be focusing on the laminate segment through aggressive brand spending. Going ahead, we expect enhanced capacity and branding to lead to an increase in market share and, in turn, robust revenue growth. Operating leverage would lead to an increase in margins and, in turn, higher profitability. In Q4FY16, the revenues of laminate & allied products business grew 14.7% YoY to | 92.3 crore while the EBIT margin expanded 670 bps YoY to 14.7%. In FY16, the laminate & allied products business grew at a healthy pace of 14.2% YoY to | 335.3 crore with EBIT margin of 13.3%. The company is successfully exporting to South East Asia and America and with the developments in the South East, the company is hopeful for a good growth. In FY16, company registered robust 26% YoY growth in exports to | 82.4 crore. Going ahead, we expect revenues to grow at 15.8% CAGR to | 449.5 crore during FY16-18E

Exhibit 5: Quarterly laminate & allied products revenue

80.5

77.2

88.5

77.4

92.3

30.5

23.112.3 8.1 14.7

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16

(| c

rore

)

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

(%)

Revenue YoY Growth (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 6: Quarterly laminate & allied products EBIT & EBIT margin

6.5

10.1

10.6

10.4

13.6

14.713.4

12.0

13.1

8.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16

(| c

rore

)

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

(%)

EBIT EBIT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 7: Laminate sales volume and average realisation trend

3.64.3

4.95.4

718

693688679

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(milli

on s

heet

s)

650

680

710

740

(|/s

heet

)

Sales Volume Average Realization

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 8: Laminate revenue and growth trend

293.

5

335.

3

449.

5

387.

3

24.0

15.5 16.114.2

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0(%

)

Laminates & Allied products YoY growth (%) [

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 6: May 13, 2016 Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Century... · Leading plywood player in India… CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and

Page 6ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Net revenues to grow at 19.2% CAGR in FY16-18E…

On the basis of our demand drivers, we expect the plywood and panel industry to grow at a decent rate. With the structural shift in the industry, we believe CPIL would be a key beneficiary, going ahead. CPIL’s strong brand equity, raw material security and robust distribution network would give a significant boost to its revenues in the coming years. The company has been able to counter a progressive commoditisation of plywood with increased realisation of its well established brands. Hence, CPIL’s products command 15-30% premium over other products. Consequently, we estimate CPIL’s net revenue will grow at 19.2% CAGR to | 2354.6 crore over FY16-18E.

Exhibit 9: Segmental net revenue trend

964.

8

1147

.1

1173

.5

1267

.9

1711

.1236.

7

293.

5

335.

3

387.

3

449.

5

54.3

70.3

83.7

92.3

101.

8

0.0

300.0

600.0

900.0

1200.0

1500.0

1800.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

Plywood & Allied Products Laminates & Allied Products CFS

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 10: Total net revenue trend

1284

.0

1564

.8

1658

.5

1825

.4

2354

.6

500.0

900.0

1300.0

1700.0

2100.0

2500.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

CAGR - 19.2%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

EBIT margin expected to expand on back of operating leverage…

CPIL’s prudent strategy to augment the capacity in both plywood and laminates in challenging times for the business would benefit in times of rebound. The plywood division and laminate division were operating at 85% and 89% of their respective capacities as on FY16. Hence, going ahead, we expect operating leverage to play out well for CPIL. Consequently, EBIT is expected to grow at 19.8% CAGR to | 350.8 crore during FY16-18E. We expect the EBIT margin to remain flat at 14.9% in FY18E.

Exhibit 11: Segmental EBIT trend

15.8 15.4 15.0 15.2

5.1

12.8 13.5 13.5

12.1

4.7

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(%)

Plywood & Allied Products Laminates & Allied Products

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 12: EBIT margin trend

124.

4

223.

1

244.

5

267.

4

350.

8

9.7

14.3 14.7 14.6 14.9

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

(%)

EBIT EBIT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

We expect revenues to witness robust growth of 19.2%

CAGR to | 2354.6 crore during FY16-18E

We expect an EBIT margin to remain flat at 14.9% in

FY18E. Consequently, EBIT is expected to grow at 19.8%

CAGR to | 350.8 crore during FY16-18E

Page 7: May 13, 2016 Century Plyboards (India) (CENPLY)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Century... · Leading plywood player in India… CPIL, with seven manufacturing plants and

Page 7ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

PAT to grow at 19.1% CAGR in FY16-18E…

CPIL imports substantially for its raw material requirements. The company reviews foreign currency risk periodically and takes hedging initiatives accordingly. In FY14, due to forex volatility, CPIL had to book losses worth ~| 44 crore on its unhedged open positions of buyer’s credit, which impacted its bottomline substantially. With a strong brand recall, robust distribution network, structural change in raw material procurement method and expansion in margin on account of operating leverage, we expect earnings to grow at a faster pace, going ahead. Hence, we expect the bottomline to grow at 19.1% CAGR to | 238.6 crore on the back of strong revenue growth and margin show.

Exhibit 13: PAT growth trend

52.767.0

150.8168.1

187.4

238.6

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(| c

rore

)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

(%)

PAT PAT Margin (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

We envisage healthy bottomline growth of 19.1% CAGR

during FY16-18E to | 238.6 crore aided mainly by the

strong topline performance and margin show

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Page 8ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Healthy return ratios…

The average RoE and RoCE of CPIL during FY09-15 have remained at the level of 24.4% and 18.8%, respectively. Going forward, RoE and RoCE should moderate to 29.6% and 21.7%, respectively in FY18E.

Exhibit 14: RoE and RoCE trend

26.8

19.2 21.1 23.0

38.9

31.828.8 29.6

18.2 17.413.0

15.9

25.2 24.9

19.121.7

35.4

25.6

0.05.0

10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(%)

RoE RoCE

[

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 15: DuPont Analysis

8.5 5.4 4.7 5.2 9.611.4 10.1 10.3 10.1

1.71.6 1.6

1.5

2.1

2.92.7

2.3

2.0

1.81.7

1.8

1.71.3

1.91.9

2.2

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

(%)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

(x)

PAT Margin Asset Turnover (RHS) Leverage (RHS)

26.835.4 19.2 21.1 38.9 34.1 31.3 30.923.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Bubble value represents RoE

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Page 9ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Conference Call Highlights

• CPIL’s 600 CBM/ day capacity MDF plant is expected to be come on stream by January, 2017. It entails an investment of | 380 crore with | 292 crore to be spent in FY17E & | 50 crore in FY18E. The company would be raising ~| 200 crore worth term loans for funding the facility. It expects the plant to operate at ~70% capacity utilisation in FY18E

• The company has completed its particle board plant and is

awaiting electricity supply from the Tamil Nadu government post which it will commence production by June, 2016

• In the plywood division, the EBITDA margin was lower for the

quarter partly on account of higher employee and advertisement expenses and partly due to higher discounts availed which were not provisioned earlier. Overall, the management feels that 17% EBITDA margin is sustainable

• The management expects the laminates division to grow at ~20%

in FY17E. Going ahead, if there is more demand, it would look to built an additional capacity in Kolkata

• The tax rate during the quarter came in higher on account of

certain adjustments made in year end. Going ahead, post the commissioning of MDF plant, the management feels the tax rate would be in the range of 18-20% as only its North East unit and CFS business would be tax free

• In FY16, the plywood division was operating at 85% capacity

utilisation while the laminates division was operating at 89% capacity utilisation

• The debt for the company was at | 455 crore, which comprises

long term debt of | 64 crore and short-term debt of | 391 crore

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Page 10ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Valuation Maintain BUY with revised target price of | 205…

At the CMP, the company is trading at 20.4x FY17E EPS and 16x FY18E EPS. With its strong brand recall and distribution network, the company is likely to be a key beneficiary in the plywood segment, which is going through a structural shift towards an organised market due to roll out of GST, ban on timber export by Myanmar and brand aspiration. Consequently, we expect earnings to grow at a healthy 19.1% CAGR in FY16-18E. We also envisage an improvement in return ratios with better utilisation of its capacity. Therefore, on account of the above-mentioned factors, CPIL is well placed among its peers. Therefore, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a with a revised target price of | 205. We have ascribed a target multiple of 19x FY18E EPS. Exhibit 16: Valuation metrics

Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)

FY15 1564.8 21.9 6.8 125.3 25.2 16.2 38.9 25.2FY16E 1658.5 6.0 7.6 11.4 22.6 14.7 31.8 24.9FY17E 1825.4 10.1 8.4 11.5 20.3 14.0 28.8 19.1FY18E 2354.6 29.0 10.7 27.3 15.9 10.7 29.6 21.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

We maintain BUY recommendation on CPIL with a target

price of | 205/share. Our target price implies 19x FY18

EPS. At the CMP, the company is trading at 20.4x FY17E

EPS and 16x FY18E EPS

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Page 11ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Exhibit 17: Century one year forward P/E

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Apr-0

9

Sep-

09

Feb-

10

Jul-1

0

Dec-

10

May

-11

Oct-1

1

Mar

-12

Aug-

12

Jan-

13

Jun-

13

Nov

-13

Apr-1

4

Sep-

14

Feb-

15

Jul-1

5

Dec-

15

May

-16

Pric

e (|

)

Price 5x 15x 25x 30x 35x

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

On April 1, 2014 Myanmar banned the export of raw timber logs leading to a structural shift in the industry

Capex phase: • Capacity expansion from 25,400 CBM to 209,420

CBM in plywood • Capacity expansion from 2.4 million sheets to 4.8

million sheets in laminates

Earning growth phase: CPIL’s earnings to grow at 19.1% CAGR in FY16-18E with healthy return ratios (RoE – 29.6% in FY18E). Hence, expect re-rating of the stock, going ahead.

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Page 12ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Company snapshot

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Jul-1

6

Jan-

17

Target Price | 205

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events

Date EventFY04 Rights issue 40% at | 30 premiumFY04 Bonus 1:2 ratioFY07 Acquires 51% stake in Auro SundaramFY08 Stock split 1:10 FY08 Acquisition of Star Ferro & Cement LtdFY09 CFS business becomes operationalFY10 Acquires 51% stake in Aegis BusinessFY13 Demerger of Star Ferro and Cement LtdFY13 Ventures into readymade furniture businessFY14 Acquires 50% stake in Century InfotechFY14 Demerger of Aegis businessNov-15 Plans to build an MDF facility in Punjab with annual capacity of 1,80,000 CBM with capital expenditure of ~| 400 crore

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)1 Bhajanka (Sajjan) 31-Mar-16 0.1 26.4 0.02 Agarwal (Sanjay) 31-Mar-16 0.1 25.3 0.03 Agarwal (Divya) 31-Mar-16 0.1 16.7 0.04 Bhajanka (Santosh) 31-Mar-16 0.1 15.6 0.05 Khemani (Vishnuprasad) 31-Mar-16 0.1 12.6 0.06 Sriram Vanijya Pvt. Ltd. 31-Mar-16 0.0 8.5 0.07 Brijdham Merchants Pvt. Ltd. 31-Mar-16 0.0 7.7 0.08 Sumangal International Pvt. Ltd. 31-Mar-16 0.0 7.7 0.09 Sumangal Business Pvt. Ltd. 31-Mar-16 0.0 6.8 0.010 Sriram Merchants Pvt. Ltd. 31-Mar-16 0.0 6.7 0.0

(in %) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16Promoter 73.34 73.34 73.34Public 26.66 26.66 26.66Others 0.00 0.00 0.00Total 100.00 100.00 100.00

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity

Investor name Value (m) Shares (m) Investor name Value (m) Shares (m)Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 0.2 0.1 ICON Advisers, Inc. -0.3 -0.1M. M. Warburg Bank (Schweiz) AG 0.2 0.1 Canara HSBC Oriental Bank of Commerce Life Insurance Co., Ltd. -0.1 -0.1Canara Robeco Asset Management Company Ltd. 0.0 0.0 Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd. -0.1 0.0Mellon Capital Management Corporation 0.0 0.0 Edelweiss Asset Management Ltd. -0.1 0.0Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited 0.0 0.0 Van Eck Associates Corporation 0.0 0.0

` Sells

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Page 13ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Financial summary Profit and loss statement (| Crore)

(| Crore) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18ENet Sales 1,564.8 1,658.5 1,825.4 2,354.6

Raw Material Expense 658.4 625.7 731.1 974.4 Purchase of Traded Goods 192.7 217.6 219.1 282.6 Employee benefit expenses 193.3 230.6 253.9 327.5 Other Expenses 256.2 297.1 298.2 344.9 Total Expenses 1,300.6 1,371.0 1,502.3 1,929.3 EBITDA 264.3 287.5 323.2 425.3 Interest 43.3 46.7 41.5 56.2 Depreciation 44.8 44.6 57.7 76.7 Other income 3.7 1.6 1.9 2.2 PBT 179.8 197.7 225.9 294.6 Exceptional Items - - - - Taxes 29.0 29.7 38.4 56.0 PAT 150.8 168.1 187.4 238.6 PAT Growth rate 125.3 11.4 11.5 27.3 Adjusted EPS (Diluted) 6.8 7.6 8.4 10.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Cash flow statement (| Crore)

(| Crore) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18EProfit after Tax 150.8 168.1 187.4 238.6 Depreciation 44.8 44.6 57.7 76.7 Interest 43.3 46.7 41.5 56.2 Others 36.6 (1.3) (37.5) 6.5 Cash Flow before wc changes 304.5 287.9 287.6 434.0 Net Increase in Current Assets (76.1) (30.1) (2.8) (64.7) Net Increase in Current Liabilities (90.7) 14.8 (77.8) (166.2) Net CF from operating activities 137.8 272.6 207.0 203.1 (Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (53.3) (96.6) (69.0) (380.0) Net CF from Investing activities (62.4) (149.3) (404.7) (78.5) Dividend (46.0) (58.8) (65.6) (83.5) Interest paid (42.5) (46.7) (41.5) (56.2) Inc / (Dec) in Loans 12.1 (47.9) 297.5 60.7 Net CF from Financing activities (76.4) (153.4) 190.4 (79.0) Net Cash flow (1.0) (30.1) (7.4) 45.5 Opening Cash 18.1 17.1 19.0 11.7 Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent 17.1 19.0 11.7 57.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet (| Crore)

(| Crore) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18ELiabilitiesEquity Capital 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 Reserve and Surplus 365.3 506.6 628.5 783.5 Total Shareholders funds 387.6 528.9 650.7 805.8 Minority Interest - - - - Total Debt 501.9 454.0 751.5 812.1 Deferred Tax Liability (7.0) - - - Total Liabilities 882.0 983.0 1,402.0 1,618.0 AssetsGross Block 409.2 518.8 576.8 956.8 Less Acc. Dep 201.7 259.3 306.0 382.7 Net Block 207.5 259.5 270.8 574.1 Net Intangibles Assets 1.4 - - - Capital WIP 22.7 38.0 394.8 68.8 Total Fixed Assets 231.6 297.5 665.6 642.9 Investments 45.1 49.7 59.7 59.7 Inventory 320.0 275.2 350.1 451.6 Sundry Debtors 271.9 289.8 300.1 387.1 Loans & Advances 145.9 190.4 165.2 213.1 Cash & Bank Balances 17.0 19.0 11.7 57.2 Other Current Assets 11.3 24.5 15.0 19.4 Total Current Assets 766.2 798.8 842.0 1,128.3 Trade Payable 65.2 84.8 105.0 135.5 Other Current Liabilities 52.7 35.7 45.0 58.1 Provisions 42.6 42.6 15.0 19.4 Net Current Assets 605.7 635.8 677.0 915.4

Total Assets 882.0 983.0 1,402.0 1,618.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios

FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18EPer Share Data (|)EPS - Diluted 6.8 7.6 8.4 10.7 Cash EPS 8.8 9.6 11.0 14.2 Book Value 17.4 23.8 29.3 36.3 Dividend per share 1.3 1.0 3.0 3.8 Operating Ratios (%)EBITDA / Net Sales 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 PAT / Net Sales 9.6 10.1 10.3 10.1 Inventory Days 74.7 60.6 70.0 70.0 Debtor Days 63.4 63.8 60.0 60.0 Creditor Days 15.2 18.7 21.0 21.0 Return Ratios (%)RoE 38.9 31.8 28.8 29.6 RoCE 25.2 24.9 19.1 21.7 RoIC 26.0 26.2 26.7 23.4 Valuation Ratios (x)EV / EBITDA 16.2 14.7 14.0 10.7 P/E (Diluted) 25.2 22.6 20.3 15.9 EV / Net Sales 2.7 2.6 2.5 1.9 Market Cap / Sales 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.6 Price to Book Value 9.8 7.2 5.8 4.7 Dividend Yield 0.7 0.6 1.7 2.2 Solvency Ratios (x)Net Debt / Equity 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 Debt / EBITDA 1.9 1.6 2.3 1.9 Current Ratio 4.2 4.0 4.5 4.5

Quick Ratio 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Page 14ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Building Materials) CMP M Cap(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E

Kajaria Ceramics (KAJCER) 1077 1200 Buy 8562 22.1 28.8 36.9 47.1 36.1 28.2 24.9 18.9 15.4 11.2 9.1 7.3 23.7 25.1 25.9Somany Ceramics (SPLIND) 430 465 Buy 1668 11.8 14.6 18.2 31.3 25.3 20.3 17.4 13.2 11.1 5.6 3.7 3.2 17.8 14.5 15.7Century Plyboard (CENPLY) 171 205 Buy 3810 6.8 7.6 8.4 25.2 22.6 20.3 16.2 14.7 14.0 9.8 7.2 5.8 38.9 31.8 28.8Greenply (MTML) 214 225 Buy 2577 10.1 10.4 12.3 17.8 17.3 14.6 12.1 10.0 8.8 4.5 3.6 2.9 25.2 20.9 20.1

P/B (x) RoE (%)Sector / Company

EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Page 15ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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Page 16ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION We , Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Vaibhav Shah MBA (Finance); research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Vaibhav Shah MBA (Finance); research analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Vaibhav Shah MBA (Finance); research analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.


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