measuring  systemic  change

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-­‐SA  3.0  

a  market  systems  approach

Source:  Helvetas  Swiss  IntercooperaDon  

Skills  

R&D   Finance  

Service    providers  SMEs  

Ministries  

AssociaDons  

Lead  firms  

Micro-­‐  enterprises  

AuthoriDes  

Consultancies  

NGOs  

Media  

Informal    networks  

Policies   Social  norms  

Laws  

Project  

Funder  

Infra-­‐  structure  Inputs  

what  is  systemic  change?

Source:  Donor  CommiRee  for  Enterprise  Development  (DCED)  

 impact  criteria sustainable  -­‐  unlikely  to  be  reversed scale  -­‐  mainstreamed value  -­‐  dispropor:onately  benefits  target  groups

unwrapping  systemic  change

a  new  or  improved  product/service  offer,  or  a  shi?ed  role/  responsibility clear  innova:on  

shared  vision a  change  in  the  suppor:ng  func:ons  and  rules  that  bring  about  more  effec:ve  func:oning  of  the  core  market

Source:  Ripley  &  Nippard  ‘Making  Sense  of  Messiness’  

systemic  change  framework

Source:  Springfield  Centre  for  Business  in  Development  

ADOPT    

Player  takes  up  innovaDon  and  plans  to  

conDnue    

ADAPT    

Player  independently  adapts  or  invests  in  

innovaDon  

EXPAND    

Other  compeDng  players  copy  the  

innovaDon  (or  a  variant  thereof)  

RESPOND    

System  adjusts  to  incorporate  a  new  way  

of  working  

SEED  INNOVATION  

CREATE  CONDITIONS  FOR  

INNOVATION  

summary  metrics  for  hypothesis  tes:ng

Source:  Adapted  from  Springfield  Centre  for  Business  in  Development  

If  we  le1  now,  would  partners  return  to  their  previous  ways  of  working?      Value:  who  benefits  with  what  Sustainability:  leverage    Sustainability:  revenues,  costs  or  profitability  (or  mandate  fulfilment)    

If  you  le1  now,  would  partners  build  upon  the  changes  they've  adopted?    Sustainability:  Level  of  independent  investment  Scale:  rolling-­‐out  product/service  to  new  segments  or  geographies    

If  you  le1  now,  would  target  group  benefits  depend  on  too  few  people,  firms,  or  organisaAons?    Scale:  replicaDon  through  crowding-­‐in,  criDcal  mass  (Dpping  point  and  market  share)  Scale:  barriers  to  entry  and  behaviour  of  ‘scale  agents’  Value:  sustained  levels  of  benefits    

If  you  le1  now,  would  the  system  be  supporAve  of  the  changes  introduced  (allowing  them  to  be  upheld,  grow,  evolve)?      Scale:  Policy/BEE  response  from  non-­‐compeDng  players    Scale:  ‘Paradigms’  -­‐  Underling  market  structure,  mental  models  Sustainability:  System  ‘health’  -­‐  stress  tesDng  scenarios,  sensiDvity  analysis,  churn  rates  

EXPA

ND  

RESPOND  

ADOPT  

ADAPT  

methods

Source:  Adapted  from  Springfield  Centre  for  Business  in  Development  

If  we  le1  now,  would  partners  return  to  their  previous  ways  of  working?      Value:  who  benefits  with  what  Sustainability:  leverage    Sustainability:  revenues,  costs  and  profitability  (or  mandate  fulfilment)    

If  you  le1  now,  would  partners  build  upon  the  changes  they've  adopted?    Sustainability:  Level  of  independent  investment  Scale:  rolling-­‐out  product/service  to  new  segments  or  geographies    

If  you  le1  now,  would  target  group  benefits  depend  on  too  few  people,  firms,  or  organisaAons?    Scale:  replicaDon  through  crowding-­‐in,  criDcal  mass  (Dpping  point  and  market  share)  Scale:  barriers  to  entry  and  behaviour  of  ‘scale  agents’  Value:  sustained  levels  of  benefits    

If  you  le1  now,  would  the  system  be  supporAve  of  the  changes  introduced  (allowing  them  to  be  upheld,  grow,  evolve)?      Scale:  Policy/BEE  response  from  non-­‐compeDng  players    Scale:  ‘Paradigms’  -­‐  Underling  market  structure,  mental  models  Sustainability:  System  ‘health’  -­‐  stress  tesDng  scenarios,  sensiDvity  analysis,  churn  rates  

EXPA

ND  

RESPOND  

ADOPT  

ADAPT  

Lean  surveys  (inc.  PPI)  

Experimental  /  

QE  designs  

ObservaDon   InvesDgaDve  

approach    

Snowballing  

Tacit  knowledge  

Network  analysis  

SenseMaker  ®  

Outcome  mapping  

example

Image  by  Calvinius.  Sou

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edia.  CC  BY

-­‐SA  3.0  

example:  the  informa:on  market  system  in  Uganda

Source:  M4P  Hub  and  ILO  

Skills  

InformaDon   Finance  

Service    providers  SMEs  

Ministries  

AssociaDons  

Lead  firms  

Micro-­‐  enterprises  

AuthoriDes  

Consultancies  

NGOs  

Media  

Informal    networks  

Standards   Social  norms  

Laws  

Project  

Funder  

Infra-­‐  structure  

Inputs  

Goal:  increase  access  to  informaDon  for  entrepreneurial    decision-­‐making    

making  commercial  radio  work

ADOPT    

Player  takes  up  innovaDon  and  plans  to  

conDnue    

ADAPT    

Player  independently  adapts  or  invests  in  

innovaDon  

EXPAND    

Other  compeDng  players  replicate    the  innovaDon  (or  a  variant  

thereof)  

RESPOND    

System  adjusts  to  incorporate  a  new  way  

of  working  

1  partner  radio  staDon  (CBS)  introduces  programme  “I  run  my  own  business”    Anecdotal  evidence  of  popularity  and  benefit  (call  ins)  

CBS  senior  management  buy-­‐in    Three  new  programmes  launched  

17  radio  staDons  crowd-­‐in.  Total  22  regular  programmes  in  18  local  

languages    

7  million  listeners,  75%  self-­‐idenDfy  as  dedicated    

 96%  report  business  benefit  (survey,  sample  size  1,100)  

Policy  makers  protect  nascent  eco-­‐tourism  industry  

 Exposed  corrupDon  in  tobacco  out  

grower  scheme.  Safeguarded  livelihoods  of  25,000  farmers    

(case  studies)  

Source:  M4P  Hub  and  ILO