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Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Technical Working Group (TWG) Meeting August 31, 2015 1:00 – 4:00 pm East Palo Alto City Hall Facilitated by the Project Management Team (PMT): Supervisor Dave Pine, San Mateo County, Board of Supervisors (District 1) Hilary Papendick, San Mateo County, Office of Sustainability Kelly Malinowski, California State Coastal Conservancy Gerard Slattery, ARCADIS Peter Wijsman, ARCADIS Jessica Ludy, ARCADIS Henry Pontarelli, Lisa Wise Consulting, Inc. Grace Klein, Lisa Wise Consulting, Inc. Attendees Sixty-five individuals attended the meeting from a diversity of affiliations and communities including representatives from 11 San Mateo County cities, state, and federal government agencies, public utilities, businesses, research organizations, environmental and community organizations, and others. Representatives included planners, engineers, directors of public works departments, facility managers, scientists, community organizers, conservation specialists, and parks and recreation staff, among others. See the attached Attendee List for a comprehensive list (Appendix A). See the attached meeting PowerPoint for details on the presentation (Appendix B). In brief, the meeting consisted of discussions led by Supervisor Pine, Hilary Papendick, Gerry Slattery, Peter Wijsman and Jessica Ludy on project goals and objectives, methodology, progress to date and what is expected of the TWG. INTRODUCTION The meeting began with opening remarks from Supervisor Pine introducing and stressing the importance of the project, its place in the County’s on-going work on sea level rise, followed by the introduction of the Project Management Team. PROJECT SUMMARY, UPDATES AND MEETING GOALS (Slides 1-6) Hilary Papendick discussed the role of the TWG, future Technical Working Group meetings, which will occur in mid-December and in early 2016, as well as the launch of the project website (by the end of September). Attendees were asked to speak about projects involving sea level rise assessments and/or adaption in their jurisdictions or managed by their organizations. The following attendees spoke:
Transcript
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Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Technical Working Group (TWG) Meeting August 31, 2015 1:00 – 4:00 pm East Palo Alto City Hall

Facilitated by the Project Management Team (PMT): Supervisor Dave Pine, San Mateo County, Board of Supervisors (District 1) Hilary Papendick, San Mateo County, Office of Sustainability Kelly Malinowski, California State Coastal Conservancy Gerard Slattery, ARCADIS Peter Wijsman, ARCADIS Jessica Ludy, ARCADIS Henry Pontarelli, Lisa Wise Consulting, Inc. Grace Klein, Lisa Wise Consulting, Inc.

Attendees Sixty-five individuals attended the meeting from a diversity of affiliations and communities including representatives from 11 San Mateo County cities, state, and federal government agencies, public utilities, businesses, research organizations, environmental and community organizations, and others. Representatives included planners, engineers, directors of public works departments, facility managers, scientists, community organizers, conservation specialists, and parks and recreation staff, among others. See the attached Attendee List for a comprehensive list (Appendix A).

See the attached meeting PowerPoint for details on the presentation (Appendix B). In brief, the meeting consisted of discussions led by Supervisor Pine, Hilary Papendick, Gerry Slattery, Peter Wijsman and Jessica Ludy on project goals and objectives, methodology, progress to date and what is expected of the TWG.

INTRODUCTION

The meeting began with opening remarks from Supervisor Pine introducing and stressing the importance of the project, its place in the County’s on-going work on sea level rise, followed by the introduction of the Project Management Team.

PROJECT SUMMARY, UPDATES AND MEETING GOALS (Slides 1-6) Hilary Papendick discussed the role of the TWG, future Technical Working Group meetings, which will occur in mid-December and in early 2016, as well as the launch of the project website (by the end of September).

Attendees were asked to speak about projects involving sea level rise assessments and/or adaption in their jurisdictions or managed by their organizations. The following attendees spoke:

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Gilead Sciences, Foster City, Walter Russo (Director, Security), also a Foster City Chamber of Commerce member – The Foster City Chamber of Commerce is creating a Business Resiliency Advisory Task Force (BRAT) whose purpose is to protect, maintain and grow Foster City businesses by assisting them to adapt and adjust effectively and efficiently to business and community changes ensuring their enterprise remains strong and robust. These changes would include among other things emergencies and natural disasters including those from flooding and sea level rise. BRAT will be connecting with Foster City businesses through webinars, workshops, online discussion groups and ongoing dialogue to share best practices.

City of East Palo Alto, Kamal Fallaha (Public Works Director / City Engineer), commented on the

steps the City is doing in coordination with the SAFER Bay project, to account for sea level rise and storm events. More information at http://www.cityofepa.org

NOAA/Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS), Sarah Hutto (Climate Change

Specialist), GFNMS recently completed a climate change vulnerability assessment of natural assets that encompassed San Mateo County. They just released a report and found that beaches, dunes, rocky intertidal, and estuary habitats were most at risk. The report is accessible at http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/conservation/vulnerability-assessment-gfnms.html

SFO, Rosylyn Yu (Civil Engineer), the airport recently completed a study funded by the State

Coastal Conservancy. A summary of the report is accessible at http://www.flysfo.com/community-environment/sea-level-rise.

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), Jeremy Lowe (Senior Scientist), SFEI is amidst their Flood Infrastructure Mapping & Communication Project which attempts to assemble a regional vision of flooding infrastructure around the bay. It will be used in part to analyze nature-based adaptations and will be released in October. Details on the report are accessible at http://www.sfei.org/content/flood-infrastructure-mapping-and-communication-project.

Sewer Authority Mid-Coastside, Kishan Pratnivadi (Engineering Manager), the City of Half Moon

Bay has four pump stations/treatment plants and is concerned/aware of risks and preparing to develop adaptation strategies.

California Coastal Commission, Carey Batha (LCP Grant Coordinator), the Commission just

adopted a final version of its Sea Level Rise Policy Guidelines document, meant to help municipalities incorporate guidelines into LCP’s and Coastal Development Permit Applications. The document is available at http://www.coastal.ca.gov/climate/slrguidance.html.

PROJECT OVERVIEW (Slides 6-11) Gerry Slattery of ARCADIS introduced the project in detail and discussed the study’s actionable outcomes. The study will be completed in steps, beginning with the development of the approach (input on which was sought at this meeting), identifying and categorizing assets, conducting the inundation exposure analysis and mapping, composing the vulnerability and risk analysis, and ending with adaption planning.

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METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW (Slides 12-22) Peter Wijsman of ARCADIS provided an overview of the project methodology. He discussed the various data types needed for the vulnerability assessment, and the sources from which the PMT intends to collect this data, including: Our Coast Our Future (OCOF), the San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), Bay Area Coastal Development Commission (BCDC), FEMA, the Department of Water Resources (DWR), as well as GIS data from Cities and the County.

Peter discussed each of the nine steps that the PMT will undertake over the course of the project. In response to a question about the format of Asset Vulnerability Profiles, Peter clarified that the goal of the project is to categorize assets rather than prioritize them based on risk or vulnerability.

SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS OVERVIEW (Slides 23-39) The PMT discussed the process of choosing the project’s sea level rise scenarios, which is still underway. There was discussion of best available science on sea level rise from the National Research Council and guidelines for adaptation planning from the California Coastal Commission, as well as discussion of what scenarios other jurisdictions in the area are using. The scenarios used by each jurisdiction, Humboldt County, Marin County, Alameda County, the City of Benicia, and the City of Half Moon Bay, are located on slides 32 and 33. The PMT also discussed the additive relationship between sea level rise and storm surges, and showed a chart (slide 34) displaying the water levels that would result from various storm intensities on top of rising sea levels. It was noted that water levels today would reach 36 inches in the event of a 50-year storm, while MHHW levels will reach that same height, 36 inches, in the year 2100 – on a daily basis. The PMT discussed USGS’s Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) online tool for viewing San Mateo County coast and bay sea level rise and flood scenarios. The PMT will work with the USGS to make sure that the information for the flooding area is accurate. The OCOF tool can be accessed at data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/index.php?page=flood-map.

QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION I Q: How is wave runup dealt with in the OCOF model? A: The model does take wave runup into account.

Q: How does the model take erosion into account? A: The model does take historic erosion into account. It does not model future changes in

geomorphology or shoreline change. It only models the changes during a single storm. However, the future shoreline position has been projected for 2030, 2050, and 2100 based on the historical rates of change reported in the USGS National Assessment of Shoreline Change for the California coast.

Q: Are the scenarios to be chosen compatible with OCOF scenarios or is the PMT interpolating

between others?

A: Will stay within bounds of OCOF scenarios for budget reasons. Includes 25cm-2m SLR. (actually up to

16ft)

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Q: With recently published “alarmist” studies by Jim Hansen and others, how will you include such extreme scenarios, some of which predict 10 feet by 2100?

A: In some ways the OCOF is compatible with this, because it uses 6 feet + 100 year storm, which is

equivalent to 10 feet. Also, the biggest jump in impact is between 1 and 4 feet, more so than between 6 and 10 feet. Michael Barber, aide to Supervisor Pine, notes that there are many different models, and we know that no model is going to perfectly predict the future. Based on the OCOF tool we have the information needed to proceed. It is important to focus on the end result, which is to prepare an inventory of at-risk assets in the County, and a detailed assessment of 30 assets, based on a low, medium, and high sea level rise scenario.

Q: Is input from the TWG sought here, regarding SLR scenarios?

A: Yes. This meeting is meant to open the lines of communication.

Q: Will you be keeping track of information gaps, particularly ones that, if filled, would improve the

project?

A: Yes, we will be keeping track of that…and TWG input will be especially helpful with regards to details

on specific assets. Kelly noted that this is an iterative process and that this meeting is for the purposes of getting feedback from the cities on what would be most helpful for them. Hilary bolstered the idea of open communication and noted that grant applications for disaster planning will be more successful if applications are done in partnership across municipalities.

ASSET CATEGORIZATION (Slides 40-54) Jessica reiterated that the Assessment will categorize assets rather than prioritize them. Categorization and classification will occur prior to risk analysis (prioritization takes place after the risk analysis). She stated that the approach is credible, transparent, based on the best available science/practice, and captures all types of assets: built, natural, human.

Jessica discussed the sources for the asset categories and classifications (categories are from BCDC’s Adapting to Rising Tides, classifications are from the American Society of Civil Engineers). Assets will be assigned both a category and a classification.

ASSET VULNERABILITY PROFILES (Slides 55-60)

Hilary explained that the decision to conduct detailed assessments of 30 assets came from a consideration for timing and budget, and from the decision that 30 was enough to “tell the story” of the County, and enough to include at least one asset from every City. An Asset Vulnerability Profile (AVP) will be developed for each of the 30 assets. The goal of the AVP’s is to generate the information needed for the county, cities, agencies, businesses, and other stakeholders to take action to increase preparedness for sea level rise and flooding. In addition, the idea is to prepare a template that the county, cities, businesses, and others can use for further analyses of exposed assets in the future.

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Hilary explained that the 30 assets will be chosen based on input from the stakeholder advisory groups. The team will be in touch with a survey for the TWG to fill out regarding assets that the working group members manage.

The idea is for the 30 assets to provide geographic coverage across both the bay and coast sides of the County, and to represent the different types of assets that exist- for instance human assets, such as our communities, natural assets, such as wetlands, beaches, or rocky intertidal habitat, businesses, community assets such as schools and senior centers, and critical facilities such as wastewater treatment plants, hospitals, and transportation networks. The 30 assets will include representation from as many different cities and agencies as possible, and from both the public and private sectors. In addition, before deciding on an asset, the PMT will need to ensure that there is enough data available to evaluate vulnerability and that the asset manager is willing to participate in the study. The PMT will also look at the asset’s role within the County and the region and will give preference to assets that provide services or value to multiple jurisdictions. The PMT will complete the asset vulnerability profiles using an asset questionnaire adapted from the BCDC’s Adapting to Rising Tides project, the Marin C-SMART, and the AdaptLA projects.

This involves working with the asset manager to gather existing data and reports on the details of the asset, including:

Information on historic flooding

Any existing stressors that limit functioning of the asset An evaluation of what would happen if exposed to inundation at high tide, storm

flooding, rise of water table, saltwater intrusion into groundwater Existing efforts underway to prepare

The consultant team will conduct interviews with asset managers to gather more detailed information on how an increase in flooding, change in groundwater, and elevated high tides would affect the functioning of the asset and other related/interconnected assets.

Based on available information, the consultant team will evaluate a full range of consequences to the asset from sea level rise, including economic, societal, environmental, and governance impacts. While the project is assessing individual assets, the team will not be looking at assets in isolation. The project will be highlighting overarching vulnerabilities that may involve multiple assets or multiple stakeholder groups as well. Finally, the asset vulnerability profile will include an assessment of potential adaptation options.

QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION II Q: Dana Brechwald, ABAG, announced that the organization has been working with the County and

BCDC to produce hazard mitigation plans, and has also been working with FEMA to ensure there is funding available. She asked whether there is awareness or communication about existing projects like this? (Info on ABAG’s past and future workshops can be found here: http://resilience.abag.ca.gov/projects/2016-mitigation-adaptation-plans/)

A: Yes, there is, and the PMT will continue to “connect the dots” between existing and past projects.

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Q: Concern was expressed about the County’s affordable housing assets, which is different than disadvantaged communities because there are affordable housing pockets outside of disadvantaged areas. Can these be taken into account, especially as occupants are often one financial emergency away from homelessness?

A: Hilary confirmed that the PMT has a list of all the affordable housing in the County which will be

incorporated.

Q: Will there be a quantitative way to compare the risk/vulnerability of all the assets, similar to

Marin County’s method, with a low, medium, and high ranking?

A: The PMT will consider it.

Q: There was a suggestion that the AVP’s include a brief listing of other assets in the County which

the main AVP asset relates to.

A: The PMT appreciated this comment and will likely incorporate it.

Q: There was a scheduling/logistics question about when the PMT is expected to decide on the final

30 assets and what form TWG-PMT communication will take between meetings.

A: Michael noted that we will need the data and input from the various agencies/jurisdictions;

without the data it will be hard to add an asset to the list.

UPCOMING ACTIVITIES (Slides 61-62) Gerry Slattery announced that the next TWG meeting will occur in mid-December and will be critical for gaining input on assets. TWG members should be reminded that the quantity and quality of asset data they provide the PMT will be reflected in the final AVP’s. “Good stuff in, good stuff out”. The team is in the process of putting together a questionnaire to gather input from the TWG on assets.

The website will have a “Town Hall” page for the public to ask questions and have them answered publicly.

CLOSING

The meeting ended with closing remarks from Supervisor Pine, voicing appreciation for all of the attendees’ time and anticipation of working together.

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Appendix A

San Mateo County TWG Attendees (8/31/15) First Name Last Name Organization

Kelly Malinowski California State Coastal Conservancy

Dave Pine San Mateo County

Michael Barber San Mateo County

Deborah Hirst San Mateo County

Jim Eggemeyer San Mateo County

Hilary Papendick San Mateo County

Jim Porter San Mateo County

Grace Klein Lisa Wise Consulting

Jessica Ludy ARCADIS

Gerard Slattery ARCADIS

Peter Wijsman ARCADIS

Henry Pontarelli Lisa Wise Consulting

Randy Breault Brisbane

Ken Johnson Brisbane

Dave Bishop Colma

Kamal Fallaha East Palo Alto

Jeff Moneda Foster City

Leslie Carmichael Foster City

Chuck Anderson Foster City (Schaaf & Wheeler)

Azalea Mitch Menlo Park

Raymond Donguines Pacifica

Joseph Spanheimer Pacifica

Ahmad Haya Redwood City

Jimmy Tan San Bruno

Grace Le San Carlos

Ralph Braboy San Mateo

Lawrence Henriquez South San Francisco

Brian McMinn South San Francisco

Brian Schumacker South San Francisco

Dana Brechwald ABAG

Lindy Lowe BCDC

Amy Hutzel California Coastal Conservancy

Michelle Senatore Caltrain/SamTrans/SMCTA

Shannon Fiala Coastal Commission

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Carey Batha Coastal Commission

Keley Ducklow Coastal Commission

Kelly Keen California State Lands Commission

Stefanie Hom MTC

John Rozum NOAA

Sara Hutto NOAA/Gulf of the Farallones National Sanctuary

Craig Conner US Army Corps of Engineers

Winnie Chan US Fish & Wildlife

Andy O'Neill USGS

Chris Regnart NCCWD

Len Materman San Franciscquito Creek JPA

Scott Grindy San Mateo County Harbor District Commission

Jim Smith San Mateo County Harbor District Commission

Lauren Swezey Facebook

Katie Excoffier Genentech

Scott Hart PG&E

Frank Fraong PG&E

Walter Ruzzo Gilead

Kirsten Schwind Bay Localize

Jeremy Lowe SFEI

Rosalyn Yu SFO

Sue Walsh Alain Pinel Realtors

Violet Saena Duke University, EPA community

Webinar Attendees Khee Lim Millbrae

Tim Shimizu San Mateo County Counsel's Office

Richard Fahey CalTrans

Norman Wong BART

Tammy Rudock Mid-Peninsula Water District

Sarah Stoner-Duncan Central Coast Wetlands Group

Ross Clark Central Coast Wetlands Group

Suzanne DeLeon CA Dept of Fish & Wildlife

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San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment

Technical Working Group Meeting August 31, 2015 The meeting will begin shortly

Photo by Biking Nikon SF, all rights reserved

Appendix B

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Upcoming Meetings

• Technical Working Group Meetings: December February

• Policy Advisory Committee Meetings October 7 March

• Public Workshops

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Announcements & Project Updates

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San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment

August 31, 2015

Technical Working Group Meeting #1 Project Overview

San Mateo County

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Why are we doing this study?

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What this study will accomplish?

Actionable outcomes

Develop approach: Collect data/synthesize prior studies

Identify and categorize assets

Inundation exposure analysis and mapping

Vulnerability and risk analysis

Adaptation planning

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Where does that fit in to building resiliency and reducing risk?

WHAT IS THE RISK OF

INUNDATION?

1 IDENTIFY

MEASURES TO REDUCE RISK OF

INUNDATION

2 EVALUATE MEASURES

3 DEVELOP STRATEGY

4 IMPLEMENT

ADAPTATION STRATEGY

5

Vulnerability Assessment

What assets are exposed to inundation? How vulnerable are the assets to

inundation? What are the consequences of asset

inundation?

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What is the schedule?

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What have we accomplished so far?

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San Mateo County Shoreline Risk & Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Overview

August 31, 2015

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Step 1: Identify the Data/Data Types Needed for the Vulnerability Assessment

• Flood Hazard Data Modeling

Depth Extent Duration

Total water level MHHW or King Tide Sea level rise Storm surge Wind waves

• Asset Information E.g.: Infrastructure, buildings, natural resources,

cultural resources, recreational assets, and human assets.

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Step 2: Collect Data from Various Sources

• GIS data from the County and Cities • Our Coast Our Future • SFEI • BCDC • FEMA • DWR • Interviews with asset owners/operators

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Step 3: Categorize and Classify Assets

Police Station Caltrain Recreational Facilities

SFO Bart State/County Parks

Highway 101, I-380 Businesses/Commercial Other Local Roads

Evacuation Route Cultural Resources Low-density residential

Hazardous Facilities Community centers State Beaches

Critical Energy Facilities Critical habitat Mavericks

Telecom Wetlands Marine Protected Areas

San Mateo County communities have many infrastructure, people, ecosystems and other important assets that may be vulnerable to current and future flooding.

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Step 4: Selection of Inundation Scenarios

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Step 5: Inundation Mapping and Asset Exposure Analysis

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Step 6: Prepare Asset Exposure Maps

• Enable a high level understanding of what types of assets are at risk and where they are located (without going into the weeds)

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Step 7: Prepare Asset Exposure Inventories

• We will produce an inventory of all assets exposed to flooding Identified in the mapping

exercise

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Step 8: Prepare Asset Vulnerability Profiles

• Asset Vulnerability Profiles 30 representative assets Describing

Asset Characteristics Vulnerabilities (including:

exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Risks (including consequences)

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Step 9: Adaptation Planning

Adaptation Planning to Imagine What a Future with Sea Level Rise will Look Like

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Adaptation Planning considers all available measures

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San Mateo County

Shoreline Risk & Vulnerability Assessment Sea Level Rise Scenario Discussion

August 31, 2015

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© ARCADIS 1 September 2015 24

Flood Risk and Sea Level Rise

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Making San Mateo County more resilient requires understanding flood risk today

Redwood City December 2014

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Making San Mateo County more resilient requires understanding risk in the future

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Selection of sea level rise scenarios

• Selection of 3 to 4 scenarios • Based on the guidance in the California Coastal

Commission (May 2015 Sea Level Rise Guidance document: Interpretive Guidelines for Addressing Sea Level Rise in Local Coastal Programs and Coastal Development Permits)

• Consistent with local SLR planning efforts • Scenarios that provide an overview of today’s

and realistic future scenarios

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Selection of sea level rise scenarios (cont’d)

• Scenarios are still to be selected • Potential Approach:

Baseline scenario: 1% chance flood (also known as “100 year flood”) + today’s mean higher high water level (MHHW).

Second scenario: flood resulting from a 1% chance flood using today’s MHHW + a realistic SLR scenario for 2050.

Third scenario: flooding resulting from a 1% chance flood using MHHW + the most likely SLR scenario for 2100.

• Scenarios informed and selected through guidance from the County and Conservancy and input from the Technical Working Group.

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NRC 2012 Scenarios

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Coastal Commission and Other State Guidance

• Coastal Commission Recommendation: What are the impacts from the worst-case scenario of

the highest possible sea level rise plus elevated water levels from high tide, El Nino, and a 100-year storm?

What is the minimum amount of sea level rise that causes inundation, flooding, or erosion concerns?

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Coastal Commission and Other State Guidance

• CO-CAT March 2013 recommends:

NRC 2012 scenarios Consider timeframes, adaptive capacity, risk tolerance Consider storms and other extreme events Coordinate with other state agencies when selecting values of

SLR and, where appropriate and feasible, use the same projections of SLR

Future SLR projections should not be based on linear extrapolation of historic SLR observations

Consider changing shorelines Consider predictions in tectonic activity Consider trends in relative local mean sea level

Page 40: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Example SLR Scenarios Used in California

• Humboldt County Relative sea level rise rates, the

high projections (due to tectonic subsidence)

Based on NRC 2015, 2030, 2050 and 2100 For some critical assets, looking

at 2070 too • Marin County

Annual storm + 25 cm (0.82 ft) 20 year storm + 25 cm (0.82 ft) 20 year storm + 50 cm (1.64 ft) 100 year storm + 100 cm (3.28 ft) 100 year storm + 200 cm (6.56 ft)

• City of Benicia 12 inches (1 foot) 24 inches (2 feet) 60 inches (5 feet) Also took into account the effect

of storms

Page 41: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Example SLR Scenarios Used in California

• Half Moon Bay 0 cm-SLR with King Tide 25 cm-SLR with 100-Yr storm

event 50 cm-SLR with 100-Yr storm

event 3 ft-SLR with 100-Yr storm event

• Alameda County (ART Study) SLR projections range from 12-96

inches. Ranges in 3 time periods, based

on the NRC 2012 report: 2030: 2 inches (low), 12

inches (high) 2050: 5 inches (low), 24

inches (high) 2100: 17 inches (low), 66

inches (high)

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Water surface elevation from sea level rise and storm surge (San Francisco PUC Example)

(Water levels in inches)

Page 43: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

= 6” SLR

+ 100-yr Storm Surge

48” SLR

Potential Mid-Century Water Levels ( San Francisco PUC Example)

Page 44: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

83” SLR =

42” SLR + 100-yr Storm Surge

Potential End-of-Century Water Levels ( San Francisco PUC Example)

Page 45: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Our Coast Our Future Tool (OCOF)

• Online tool for Bay Area flood scenarios Pacific Coast and San Francisco Bay

• Combination of 40 different sea level rise and storm scenarios, plus a King Tide scenario, using the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

• Interactive flood map including flood extent, depth, duration, and minimum and maximum flood potential, wave heights, and current velocity,

• Consultant Team will work with USGS to improve data and interpret inundation patterns

Page 46: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Our Coast Our Future Tool (OCOF)

Page 47: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Q&A

Page 48: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment

August 31, 2015

Technical Working Group Meeting #1 Asset Categorization

San Mateo County

Page 49: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Categorize and classify Assets

• Why categorize and classify assets? • Categorize vs. prioritize • Approach to asset categories and classes

Page 50: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

What do we mean by assets?

Examples of assets

Police Stations Caltrain Recreational Facilities

SFO Bart State/County Parks

Highway 101, I-380 Business/Commercial Roads

Evacuation Route Cultural Resources Low-density residential

Hazardous Facilities Community centers State Beaches

Critical Energy Facilities Critical habitat Schools

Telecom Wetlands Ports

Categorize and classify assets

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Enables consideration of all of SMC’s assets Framework, which vulnerabilities to address first

Why categorize and classify assets?

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Given the large number of assets in SMC

• Helps us think about things differently • What does it mean to have a flooded asset? (temporary or permanent)

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• What types of assets are at risk and where are they located?

Categorizing assets provides understanding

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Asset categorization is not prioritization

Categorization/classification: Prior to risk analysis Objective, transparent criteria to organize assets Function, sector, public health, safety and welfare

Page 55: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Asset categorization is not prioritization

Prioritization: After a risk analysis Part of overall flood risk management and SLR

strategy Stakeholder preferences, values, economic

efficiency

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An approach needs to be...

Credible Transparent Best available science/practice Capture built, natural, and human assets

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An approach needs to consider that

• Federal funds generally allocated to risk

reduction to public health, safety, welfare

• Federal law protects endangered species and

wetlands

• State law recognizes importance of natural and

human assets, issues of social vulnerability

Page 58: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

What is the approach? (part I-Categories)

• Airport

• Community land use, services,

facilities

• Contaminated lands

• Energy infrastructure and pipelines

• Ground transportation

• Hazardous materials

• Natural areas

• Parks and recreation areas

• Seaport

• Structural Shorelines

• Storm water

• Wastewater

Assets will be each organized into the categories identified in Adapting to Rising Tides

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What is the approach? (part II-Classes)

Assets will be organized into classes based on:

Public health, safety, welfare (built assets)

Ecosystem and habitat (natural assets)

Social vulnerability (human assets)

Page 60: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Built Assets

ASCE 24-14 Flood Resistant Design and Construction Public health safety welfare

Criticality and disruption to society

Aligns with FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Asset class determines design flood elevation

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Built Assets Class Description (abbreviated) I Buildings and other structures that represent a low risk to human health in the event

of failure (flood) II All buildings and other structures except those listed in categories I, III, IV III Buildings and other structures,

• The failure of which could pose a substantial risk to human health • Not included in category IV, with potential to cause a substantial economic

impact and/or mass disruption of day to day civilian life in the event of a flood • that manufacture, process, hazardous fuels, hazardous chemicals, or

hazardous waste) explosive substances where their quantity exceeds a threshold quantity established by the authority having jurisdiction and is sufficient to pose a threat to the public if released.

IV Buildings and other structures, • Essential facilities • Failure of which could pose substantial hazard to the community • Containing sufficient quantities of highly toxic substances where the quantity

exceeds a threshold quantity established by the authority having jurisdiction to be dangerous to the public if released and is sufficient to pose a threat to the public if released

• Required to maintain function of other category IV structures

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Natural and Human Assets

Class Description Examples

N-W Natural Assets- Wetlands/ Estuaries

Wetlands, marshes, etc.

N-B Natural Assets- Beaches/ Dunes Beaches N- R Natural Assets-Rocky intertidal Rocky intertidal

N-S Natural Assets-Species Species of special concern

N-G Natural Assets-Groundwater Groundwater basin or source

N-O Natural Assets-Other

Natural assets not listed in any other category

H-D Human Assets-Disadvantaged community

Areas designated as disadvantaged or socially vulnerable

Page 63: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment

August 31, 2015

Technical Working Group Meeting #1 Asset Vulnerability Profiles

San Mateo County

Page 64: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Asset Vulnerability Profiles

Inundation mapping

Inventory of assets

Choose 30 representative assets

Develop Asset Vulnerability Profiles for 30 assets

Page 65: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

How will we choose the ~30 assets?

Select 30 representative assets

Develop Asset Vulnerability Profiles for ~30 assets

Page 66: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

DRAFT Criteria for Selecting Assets

• Geographic coverage • Representative across: Different categories of assets Agencies and jurisdictions Sectors - private & public

• Availability of data • Willingness of asset manager • Extent to which asset provides service/value to

multiple jurisdictions • Any others?

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Process for Development of Asset Vulnerability Profiles

• Gather existing data and reports

• Manager interviews • Site visits

Pacifica during King Tides Photo by Jack Sutton, all rights reserved

Page 68: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Asset Vulnerability Profile - Draft Outline

• Summary of Asset • Regulatory oversight • Current vulnerability • Future vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity

• Consequences • Adaptation options

Page 69: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment

August 31, 2015

Technical Working Group Meeting #1 Upcoming Activities

San Mateo County

Page 70: Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise ......Meeting Notes, SMC SVA, TWG Meeting, August 31, 2015, East Palo Alto 1 Meeting Notes, San Mateo County Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

TWG Input


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