Meeting the challenges for countrywide conservation
Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho
Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto
UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS
Bonn, March 30rd 2016Soares-Filho 2016
Global GH gases continue in full steam
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Friedlingstein et al. 2014
Window of opportunity is closing
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What to expect?
climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
My home
IPCC 2001
2005
2010 20132014 2015
Glo
bal
Tem
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+0.87o . The five warmest years ever:
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Paris 2015 agreement: Nationally Determined Contributions
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Lessons from Brazil
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Brazil is a leader in both achieving and committing to GHG reductions
17.2 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
9.4 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
13.1 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
5.7 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
5.4 CO2eq tons.year-1.person-1
2005
2015
2030?
Brazil’s NDC
2015
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The fate of the Amazon under a BAU scenario
Soares-Filho et al. 2006
SimAmazonia. “Landmark presentation of scenarios of development and conservation policies”
Davidson et al. 2012Soares-Filho 2016
What happened?
From 2004 deforestation in the Amazon plummeted by 80%, more than 2 billion tons of CO2
reduced from the 1996-2005 baseline.Nepstad et al. 2009Soares-F
ilho 2016
PA expansion (from 2002 to 2009, 70 Mhawere designated as new PAs)
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25396
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14196 12911
7464 6400
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What caused this precipitous decline?
35.7 Mha
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New paradigm in PA history (green barriers)
Effective in locally deterring deforestation without leakage
≈50% of the remaining forest
Soares-Filho et al. 2010 Soares-Filho 2016
But what else? More command and control (IBAMA, Federal policy, public prosecutors)
Börner et al. 2014
PRODES
Enforcement teams guided up by deforestation maps
Near-real time
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Credit ban to municipalities in the black list
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Municipalities in the black list reduced deforestation from 2008 to 2010 27% more than others
Arima et al. 2014
Black list
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Soy moratorium
Gibbs et al. 2015 Soares-Filho 2016
At the same time, Brazil has become the second largest producer of agricultural commodities
Soy 2013/2014
87 M tons
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Milh
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Cropland x Yields
Área plantada ( Ha) Toneladas por Ha
Cropland (ha) Ton/ha
K h
a
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What can we expect?
Continued trend of increasing demand for agricultural products from Brazil.Production needs to increase by 40% to raise world production by 20% (OCDE 2015)
Full reverse ?Revisions to the forest code
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Conflicting interests
Conservation Development
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Roughly 53% of Brazil’s native vegetationoccurs on private properties
The forest code is the main conservation tool in Brazil
Soares-Filho et al. 2014Soares-Filho 2016
Soares-Filho et al. 2014
Brazil’s new forest code
Brazil’s controversial new Forest Code grants amnesty to illegal deforesters
Debt reduced by 58%, conservation requirements maintained, except for hilltop preservation areas
Level of compliance
Public landsSoares-Filho 2016
Brazil’s pledge to reduce GHG (NDC) by 2030
Challenges for Brazil
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Brazil’s GHG emission profile
60% comes from the land-use sector Seeg.org.br
298 302 298 288 303 313 318 332 350 337 368 382 418 452 479
328 339 352 372 387 392 392 383 389 396 406 418 413 418 423
1,438 1,434 1,653
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1,485 1,211
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647 592 562 462 538 486
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Energy Agriculture Residues Industrial processes Land use change
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Sources and sinks of GHG emissions in agriculture, forests, and other land use systems (IPCC 2006)
≈ 88% from livestock
Enteric fermentation in livestock,
2.65E+08Manure
management, 2.10E+07
Manure on soils, 8.56E+07
ag. Residues
FertilizersRice Field
burning of ag.
residues
Vinasse
GHG in the agricultural sector
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Brazil’s NDC by 2030
• Develop a low carbon agriculture to compensate ag. expansion
• Although more efficient, emissions will increase in the energy sector due to more consumption
• Emissions from land use change must reduce by ≈ 70%
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Mudança do uso do soloEnergiaAgriculturaProcessos industriais
Land use changeEnergy
Agriculture
Industrial process
(Spencer & Pierfrederici, R. , 2015)Soares-F
ilho 2016
1. Strengthen the Low Carbon Agriculture Program (ABC), including restoration of an additional 15 million ha of degraded pasturelands (totaling 30 Mha).
2. Enforcing the implementation of the Forest Code, at federal, state and municipal levels.
3. Restoring and reforesting 12 million ha of forests by 2030.
4. Zero illegal deforestation by 2030 and compensating for greenhouse gas emissions from legal suppression of vegetation by 2030.
Large-scale measures relating to land use change and forests
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Solving Brazil’s territorial equation
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≈ 1 head per hectare
Cattle ranching in Brazil
csr.ufmg.br/pecuaria
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←URBAN←WATER
←PROTECTED AREAS
← NON DESIGNATED
← REMNANTSON PRIVATE LANDS
←PASTURELANDS
← CROPS
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Finished in feedlots
Barbosa et al. 2015Soares-Filho 2016
Brazil can expand by 50% its croplands without further deforestation
Soares-Filho et al. 2012World Bank 2010
Simbrasil/Otimizagro
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if cattle ranching is intensified from 1 to 1.5 head/ha
Soares-Filho et al. 2012World Bank 2010
Simbrasil/Otimizagro
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Meet Brazil’s new conservationist
A spate of publications are suggesting that cattle intensification could spare land for conservation Soares-F
ilho 2016
Based on the theory of land sparing
Green et al. 2005, Phalan et al. 2011Does it work?Soares-Filho 2016
There is no evidence in Brazil
EU imports 35 million tons of soy and produces less than 1 million ton a year.
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Yie
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Soy
Brazil
CanadaParaguayUnited StatesBrazilArgentinaOthersSoares-F
ilho 2016
There is no causation relationship
Deforestation is a quest for land, cattle ranching the cheapest means
Bowman et al. 2012Soares-Filho 2016
And there are market failures!
Plan to increase production by 40%
Price
Quantity
D1 D2
S1
q1 q2
p1
S2
Four companies control 43%
Merry and Soares-Filho, in review
67.1 Mt
75.4 Mt
2014 2024FEEDFOOD.COM.BR
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1. Restoration of 30 Mha of pasture
Large impact on biodiversity and increased GHG emissions
Enteric emission from cattle ranching scenarios for the state of Mato Grosso
cornerstone of Brazil’s ABC and NDC policies
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CAFO
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All properties (5.4M) must enter an online registry system (SICAR)
2-year countdown period
2. Enforcement of the Forest Code
And start developing their PRA, landowners commitment to restore the FC debt.
By May 2005, 212 Mha, 54% of properties
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Forest Code Debt
Legal reserves + Riparian protection areas ≈ 18.5 + 5.5 = 24 Mha.
Soares-Filho et al. 2014.
3. Restoring and reforesting 12 million ha of forests by 2030
35.7 Mha
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Induced restoration is costly
Too costly!!
R$ 42 million for 3 thousand ha ≈ US$ 7,000 per ha
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Costs/benefits of FC compliance
Azevedo, Rajão, et al, (under review)Soares-F
ilho 2016
4. End of illegal deforestation and compensating for GHG from legal deforestation by 2030
Fallacy of zero net deforestation!
Emissions from simulated legal deforestation
Sequestration by restoration of the FC debt
Mto
ns
CO
2eq
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Ambitious targets but weak policies
Rajão and Soares-Filho 2015
Study casts doubts on
Brazil’s NDC targets
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18% 48% 20% 13%Forest plantation
Deforestation reduction
Cattle intensification
Forest Restoration
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$/t
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% GHG AFOLU
Marginal abatement cost curve
Soy yields rely on the Amazon forest
Oliveira et al. 2013Soares-Filho 2016
Cota de Reserva Ambienta (CRA): Lower the cost of compliance
Brazil’s market for trading forest
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Offsetting FC debts with FC surplus (CRA) ≈ 4.2 Mha ≈ US$ 9.2 billion
Rajão and Soares, 2014; Soares-Filho et al. in reviewSoares-Filho 2016
Going beyond Legal Reserve compensation
Brazil’s forest certificates (CRA) open the door to ecosystem service payments
Rajão, Soares-Filho (2015); Soares-Filho, Rajão et al (2016)Soares-F
ilho 2016
US$ 8.4±2.0 billion to purchase low-cost CRAs could cut legal deforestation (19 Mha) in half, saving as much as 3.8±0.8
billion tons of CO2 emissions
Rajão and Soares, 2014; Soares-Filho et al. in pressSoares-Filho 2016
Lessons for Brazil
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1
Vielen Dank / Thank You / Obrigado
Presentation and references available at www.csr.ufmg.br/~britaldo/MeetingTheChallenges.pdf
Science in support of sound policySoares-Filho 2016
