Meeting with District of Elkford Staff

Climate Change Adaptation Portion

Objectives• Discuss findings to date - modeling results

from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium and additional research conducted

• Identify staff climate change adaptation priorities

• Gather more information from staff for vulnerability assessment

Agenda• Jargon (5 min)• Review relevant PCIC modeling results

and plans for process (10 min)• Review potential impact pathways for

Elkford (30 min)• Break (10 min)• Review potential priority vulnerability

issues for Elkford (20 min) • Next steps (15 min)

Some brief explanations…• Climate Change – dominant mechanisms attributed

all result from human activity:– increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases

– global changes to land surface, such as deforestation

– increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols

• Climate Change Adaptation - prepare for and respond to the potential impacts of climate change

• Climate Change Mitigation – reduce the contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

• Adaptive Capacity - the ability to accommodate changes in climate with minimum disruption or minimum additional cost.– What is the adaptive capacity of Elkford?

• Sensitivity - the degree of impact by changes in climate conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation) or specific climate change impacts.– How sensitive is Elkford to climate changes and

impacts?• Vulnerability - susceptibility to be harmed by

climate change impacts.– How vulnerable is Elkford?– Vulnerability = exposure x sensitivity x adaptive

capacity

Elkford Vulnerability Assessment

PCIC Modeling Elkford

• 1900 to 2004, Elkford temperature +1.0°C to +3.0°C

• Annual average temperature predicted +2°C to +3°C by 2050s

• Annual winter precipitation predicted +20% to +25% (2041-2070)

• Summer precipitation predicted -10% to -5% (2041 and 2070)

• Warmer climate, more precipitation in the winter and spring, less precipitation in the summer

Elkford Plans for Adaptation1. Obtain regional modeling2. Investigate climate change impacts relevant for

Elkford3. Identify staff/community adaptation priorities• Assessment of hazard management strategies

4. Develop risk scenarios (ie impact pathways)5. Assess the frequency and vulnerability of each

scenario• Ask you and the community if we have it right?

6. Make recommendations around action• Ask you and the community if we have it right?

Climate Change Impacts & Opportunities

• Adapted from Pearce- Climate communications ideas...

Seasonal Climate Changes

Temperature

Precipitation

Extreme weather events

Environmental Impacts

Fire Regimes

Flooding

Water quality & Availability

Snow line and snow pack

Pests

Biodiversity

Slope stability

Community Impacts/Opportunities

Quality of Life/ Community well-being

- Infrastructure (stormwater, water, sewage, buildings)

-Safety-Public health-Recreation

Economic Sectors

- Forestry -Agriculture-Tourism-Mining-Retail/services

.

WildfiresElkford Impacts and Opportunities

More Fuel in Forest

Drier Forest

Increase in suitable range of

Mountain Pine Beetle

Warmer annual

average Temperature

s

Increased atmospheric

moisture and lightning

strikes

Economic/ social

disruption

Increased risk of

property damage

Increased hunting

opportunities

Road Closures/

evacuations

Increased Harvest/ salvage

opportunities

Opportunities for Berry and

Mushroom harvest

Wildlife composition

change/ impact

Decreased Visual quality

Increased backcountry fire risk for tourism and recreation

Increase in Burned

Landscapes

Health and safety hazard

to public

Increased Frequency & Severity of Wildfires

Increased risk of erosion and

flooding

Increased glacial melt

Earlier spring snow melt

Liability risk

Insurance cost

Increased risk of property

damage

Economic disruption

Public health and safety

Increased frequency and

intensity of extreme weather

events

Financial loss for District

Increased winter

precipitation

Increased cost of

stormwater infrastructurePotential

increase in height of floodplain

Increased erosion

Increased runoff from forest

impacted by fire and pests

Increased risk of flooding &

landslides

Flooding & LandslidesElkford Impacts and Opportunities

Elkford Potential Water Availability Impacts

Increased competition over water resources

Economic/ tourism

disruption

Changes to groundwater recharge and

discharge rates

Impacts on Fish

Populations

Greater cost for water

Impact on water table

depth

Impacts on local farming

Shift in timing and amount of precipitation

Increase in average

temperature

Reduced Water

Availability

More prolonged droughts

Glacial retreat/ declining snowpack

Less rain in summer

Earlier snow melt

Longer periods of low stream flow

Water AvailabilityElkford Impacts and Opportunities

Elkford Potential Snow Impacts & Opportunities

SnowElkford Impacts and Opportunities

Earlier spring snow

melt

Less snow = less shovelling

Reduced snow

removal costs

Prolonged summer

tourism and recreation

Reduced winter

recreation options

Less favourable back country

conditions

Reduction in number of

skiable days

Increase in average

temperature

Increased winter rain

events

Reduced winter tourism & recreation

opportunities

Glacial retreat

Reduced Winter

Snowpack

Shift in timing and amount of precipitation

Pests- Mountain Pine Beetle

Changes in water runoff

and peak flows

Change in forest

hydrological cycle

Higher water table

Increased risk of flooding

Increased allowable

harvest during peak epidemic

Economic vitality with changes in harvesting

rates

Changes in resource

supply and forest

production

Shortage of wood supply in future (15-

50 years)Increased pine mortality

Increased fuel for fire

in forest

Abundance of mature pine in BC

Increase in average

temperature

Favourable summer

temperature for pine beetle reproduction

Favourable winter

temperature for pine beetle

survival

Threat of Mountain

Pine Beetle Epidemic

Increased growing degree

days

Pests- Mountain Pine BeetleElkford Impacts and Opportunities

Ecosystem shift

Highly mobile species migrate

Range and abundance

shifts in species

Loss of genetic

diversity

Less mobile species decline

Genetic pressure on species with

high adaptability

Increase in average

temperature

Changes in climate

suitability for plant species

Increased vulnerability to

disease/ invasive species

Human Disturbance

s

Human barriers Loss of

alpine ecosystems

Increased grasslands

Loss of Montane

Spruce and Engleman

Spruce habitat

Most species shift upwards

and northwards

Decline of alpine

populations or species

Economic impacts

Changes in forestry

practicesJob losses or adjustments in forestry industry

Ecosystem ShiftElkford Impacts and Opportunities

Ecological Zone By year Elevation Shift(meters)

Northward Shift

(kilometers)

Area Change (%)

Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine

Fir

2025 +86 m + 154 km 6 %

2055 + 143 m + 224 km 3 %

Montane Spruce

2025 - 28 m + 149 km - 19%

2055 - 22 m + 302 km - 40%

Alpine Tundra

2025 + 168 m - 5 km - 60%

2055 + 303 m - 67 km - 85%

Habitat and Forest Impacts Science

Species

Changes to competitive interactions

Alterations to life-cycle

mechanisms

Changes to predator-

prey relationships

New hunting opportunities

Hunting season change

Vulnerability to migration

barriers Human disturbance

Isolated ecosystems (i.e.alpine)

Lack of corridors

Increase in average

temperatures

Changes to species

lifecycle and migration patterns

Changes to structure and

function of ecosystems

Vulnerability to changes in

food availability Unpredictabl

e migration patterns

Tourism & Recreation

impacts

Species ChangeElkford Impacts and Opportunities

Translating Potential Impacts into Action

• To get everyone thinking about how these potential impacts relate to Elkford’s adaptive capacity, and vulnerability….

• Where has Elkford already acted?• Where could Elkford easily act?• What has high exposure in Elkford?• Where is there potential for high impact?• What are your main concerns on these

topics?• Have we missed a topic?

Vanderhoof Wildfire Example

VDH Impacts/Opportunities

Community Liveability Health hazards (esp for

elderly) Evacuations possible More hunting opportunities

Community Serviceability Highway closure stops access

to supplies Infrastructure at risk

Environmental High value areas at risk

Economic Logging shutdowns and

tourism visits decline during high fire hazard

Reduced timber supply

Smoke alerts

Emergency preparedness

Emergency preparedness

District fire department and provincial fire services collaborate

Fire proof if possible (buffers, reduce fuels)

Anticipate and plan for shutdowns

Local tourism and logging businesses involved in fire suppression efforts

Salvage as much as possible and factor wildfire losses into timber supply assessments

Reduce fire hazard (Fire Smart)

More subsistence hunting/Guide outfitting/viewing opportunity?

Environmental Impacts

Increased Wildfires

Strategic fire suppression

Additional resources

Community Priorities??

• Incomplete results

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues? • Wildfire

– Risk assessment already complete!• Integrate identified hazard areas into OCP

– Remediation of wildfire management• Plant species that are more beetle/fire

resistant• Integrate policies into OCP

– Integrate temperature and precipitation modeling into wildfire strategy to update• Determine potential and value

– Emergency preparedness??• Smoke alerts, evacuations

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues? • Floodplains

– Update floodplain mapping using PCIC modeling

– Identify best practices and integrate appropriate policies in OCP• Designated flood areas during storm events

• Make sure that bridges etc. do not constrict the stream channel

• Wide of a buffer zone on both sides of the Elk River as possible

• Limit the District’s liability!!

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues?

• Water Availability– Questions for Elkford - Glaciers and snowpack

feeding the water table? How long until glaciers are gone?

– BC Hydro glacier study• Leverage this work to better understand Elkford’s

future water availability

– Groundwater mapping•   Understand groundwater networks and the

recharge/discharge rates• What work has industry already done? Will do? (ie

coal and coal-bed methane)• Understand how aquifers relate to river and glaciers

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues?

• Pests and Ecosystems– Work with land use managers and planners

to ensure that appropriate migration corridors are maintained for plants and animals shifts northward     - Map current migration routes, calving grounds, etc., as well as current ecosystem habitats     - Determine high priority locations for corridors and areas for special protection

Have we missed anything?

• Your input!!!!

Next Steps - Risk Estimation

RISK = ( FREQUENCY , CLIMATE HAZARD , VULNERABILITY )

VULNERABILITY = ( EXPOSURE , SENSITIVITY , ADAPTIVE CAPACITY )

Mitigation aims to reduce

the climate change hazard

or effect

Adaptation aims to

reduce vulnerability to

these effects

Reduce exposure to

climate effect (e.g.

restrict development in

flood plains)

Reduce sensitivity to

climate effect (e.g. make

buildings more resilient,

flood defenses)

Enhance adaptive capacity

(e.g. awareness of flood

risks, affordability of housing

in less exposed areas)

Probability

of occurring

Next Steps• Risk Estimation

– Identify frequencies and vulnerability of risk scenarios (pathways)

– Frequency = probability of occurring? has it occurred in the past?

– Vulnerability (based on vulnerability) = minor effects or serious effects? Economic, ecological, social, cultural, legal?

Negligible- No action required

Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable

Moderate- Some controls required to reduce risk to lower levels

High - High priority control measures required

Extreme - Immediate controls required

Elkford Climate Change AdaptationNext Steps

• How?– Historical records, climate trends, PCIC data, – Insurance company records (fire/ flood)– Community perceptions

• Next community event?– AC input– Staff and council ideas

• Qualitative assessment based on the best information we have available

• Key outcome- ‘priority’ planning areas for Elkford– What are the high frequency, high vulnerability

impacts and areas? – Impact mitigation strategies for priority areas?

Next Steps

– Should anyone else be involved?– Please contact us with any ideas or

information you have along the way?– Learning Network Study Tour – Risk

estimation exercise in Elkford on flooding and water availability?

Questions, comments?

• Karen Gorecki, 403-770-9125, karen@zumundo.com

• Megan Walsh, 250-423-2034 walsh.megan@gmail.com

Scenario of projected shifts in ecosystems in Glacier National Park

(source: Hall and Fagre, 2003; Bioscience, 53, 131-140)

• http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_model.htm