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Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!......

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Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?! ... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik OPNet Oslo, May 2011
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Page 1: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ?

Lars-Anders Breivik

OPNet Oslo, May 2011

Page 2: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Page 3: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Heading

Oil drift simulations using two different resolutions

Red 4 km modelBlue 1.5 km model

32 hour after accidentAt noon on Aug 1

Page 4: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Page 5: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Oslofjord (300m) and Skag (1.5km). 18 Feb at 00:00

Page 6: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Regional models and model areas

Topaz:MyOcean Arctic Monitoringand Forecasting

ROMS 4 km: regional use

ROMS Norkyst 800:Coastal applications

Page 7: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

OSI SAF, Satellite derived SST (7 days accumulated) and ROMS 4 temperature

Shall be capable of utilizing available observations,in particular satellite data

Page 8: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

NOAA19, channel 1,2,3. May 5, 2011

Page 9: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

met.no Sea Ice service analysis, may 5, 2011

Page 10: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Satellite derived SST in the 9. May 2011

Page 11: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

High resolution model:Norkyst 800

Page 12: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Eddy shedding in the model. Daily mean surface currents for May 3 - 8, 2010, in the ocean west of Lofoten

Page 13: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

NWP, regional models, HIRLAM 8 and UM 1 km

Rely on high quality atmospheric forcing, Best possible NWP weather forecasts

Page 14: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Future direction: Coupling of ocean forecast / wave forecast and weather forecast models to optimize the description of the fluxes in the boundary layer.

Page 15: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Experience with couplingatmosphere - wave

Average differences in fluxes of sensible heat3 months of HIRLAM - WAM coupled / no coupled

Cold air outbreak->Rougher wind sea ->Increased heat flux

Sætra and Køltzow (IPY results)

Page 16: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

1-year storm surge simulations

• Control run with stress calculated from Large and Pond

• Experiment using stresses from wave model

• Verification against sea level observations

From Sætra, Albretsen and Janssen 2007 (JPO)

Experience with couplingwave - ocean

Page 17: Meteorologisk Institutt met.no OPNet, Oslo, May 2011 Do we need fine scale ocean prediction ?!... and if so, do we have the right tools ? Lars-Anders Breivik.

Meteorologisk Institutt met.noOPNet, Oslo, May 2011

Information- and data- access for users

Make information:snapshots and dataeasy available through modern web interface


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