EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Meteosat Climate Monitoring &River Flow Forecasting

Andries Rosema & Steven FoppesEARS Delft Netherlands

Raymond Venneker & Shreedar MaskeyUNESCO-IHE Delft Netherlands

GEO-UNESCO Workshop on Earth Observations & Capacity Development for IWRM at River Basins in Africa, Nairobi, January 2012

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Meteosat

MSG

FY2c

METEOSAT IOC

MTSat

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Energy en Water Balance

Radiation

Heat Evaporation Precipitation

Flow

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Energy and Water Balance Monitoring System (EWBMS)

Precipit.processing

Clouds

TemperatureAlbedo

Energybalance

processing

WMOstations

Precipitation

Radiation

Evaporation

Crop growthmodel

Hydrologicalmodel

River flowforecasting

Crop yieldforecasting

Droughtprocessing

Droughtmonitoring

MeteosatFengYun-2

VIS & TIR

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Precipitation continental coverage

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Evapotranspiration continental coverage

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Frequent data (daily, 10-daily)

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Complete river basins

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

River basin drought monitoring

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Drought indices

• Meteorological drought– SPI or deviation from average

• Hydrological drought– Catchment Water Balance: WB = R – E

• Agricultural drought– Evapotranspiration drought index: EDI = E/EP (monthly avg)

• Climatological drought– Climatic Moisture Index (UNCCD) CMI = E/R (yearly avg)

– Soil moisture index SMI = E/EP (yearly avg)

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Agricultural drought

y = 0.3133x

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Average relative evapotranspiration (%)

Soi

l moi

stur

e co

nten

t (0-

5 cm

)

y = 0.3751x

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Average relative evapotranspiration (%)

Soi

l moi

stur

e co

nten

t (0-

1 m

)

PAW 0.35 RE

(2) monthly relative evapotranspiration (EDI)

Proportional to plant available water (PAW)

Proportional to crop yield: 1-RY = k (1-RE)

0102030405060708090

100

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181dekade

rel.

evap

otra

nspi

ratio

n

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

soil

moi

stur

e co

nten

t

Relative evapotranspiration Soil moisture content 0-5 cm

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

River flow forecasting

Yellow River (2005-2009)

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Upper Yellow RiverWei River2

1

3

45

6

7

8

Wei River

Upper

Yellow River

Second largest river basin ofChina

Yellow River basin

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

GMS / FY2 precipitation data1st q u arter 2000 2n d qu arter 2000

3rd q u arter 2000 4th qu arter 2000

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

GMS / FY2 evapotranspiration data

1st quarter 2000 2nd quarter 2000

3rd quarter 2000 4th quarter 2000

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Validation: water balance

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jul-0

5

Sep-

05No

v-05

Jan-

06M

ar-0

6

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-

06No

v-06

Jan-

07M

ar-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep-

07

Nov-

07Ja

n-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Net P

recip

itatio

n (m

m)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Rive

r Disc

harg

e (m

m)

Net precipitation 5 days-floating average

River discharge at Tangnaihai

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Jul-0

5

Sep-

05

Nov-

05

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-

06

Nov-

06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-

07

Nov-

07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Wat

er (m

m)

Cum. evapotranspiration

Cum. net precipitation

Cum. precipitation

Cum. river discharge

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Land component:2-dimensional diffusion processSurface & sub-surface flow

Q(t)

Ql(t)Ql(t)

Large Scale Hydrological Model (LSHM)

River flow component:Muskingum-Cunge routing

Q(t)

EWBMS Precipitation &Evapotranspiration

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Wei River flow simulation

R2 = 0.75Vol. error = 4%

R2 = 0.80Vol. error = 11%

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Wei River 24 hr forecast

RMSE = 110 m3/s RRMSE = 0.37

COE = 0.75 R2 = 0.79

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Upper Yellow River

flow simulation

Station R2 Volumedifference

Jimai 0.80 +17.9 %

Maqu 0.82 - 0.61%

Jungong 0.80 + 0.61%

Tangnaihai 0.80 - 0.67%

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

RMSE = 161 m3/s RRMSE = 0.17

COE = 0.84 R2 = 0.93

Upper Yellow River 24 hr forecast

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

China national project evaluation

• Chinese high-level scientific commission

• “World leading level”

• 2nd Prize China Ministry of Water Resources

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Niger Basin project

• Niger Basin Authority, Niamey, Niger• Co-funding Dutch government (ORIO)• Duration: 2012-2015• System implementation• Testing, calibration• Validation• Climate monitoring• Drought monitoring• River flow forecasting

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Conclusions

• Operational monitoring system• Covers all Africa• Daily temporal resolution• 3 km spatial resolution• Applications in

– Climate change monitoring– River flow forecasting– Crop yield forecasting– Crop insurance

• Uniform and objective• Extensively validated• Cost effective

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

We propose…

• Africa Inter-Basin Implementation Project• Same low-cost Meteosat receivers• Same processing system (EWBMS-LSHM)• Joint training• Joint validation• Exchange of experience

EARSSatellite data for Climate Water and Food

Thank you for your attention

YR Flow Forecasting System report availableandries.rosema@ears.nl

www.ears.nl