Metropolitan Condo Outlook Spring 2009 - Genworth …...rise, with estimated hikes in 2008 ranging...

Metropolitan Condo Outlook Spring 2009

Insights Into the ApartmentCondominium Market in Canada’sEight Largest Metropolitan Areas

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND TRENDS

Metropolitan Condo Outlook: Insights Into the Condominium Market in Canada’s Eight Largest Census

Metropolitan Areas

by Jane McIntyre and Robin Wiebe

Publication 08-398©2009 The Conference Board of Canada*Printed in Canada • All rights reservedAgreement No. 40063028*Incorporated as AERIC Inc.

Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and datasources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This informationis not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

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Genworth Financial CanadaGenworth Financial Canada, The Homeownership

Company, works with lenders, mortgage brokers, real

estate agents, and builders to make homeownership more

affordable and accessible throughout Canada. The com-

pany combines global experience in mortgage insurance

with technological and service leadership to deliver

innovation to the mortgage marketplace.

Additional information about Genworth Financial Canada

is available at www.genworth.ca.

Genworth FinancialGenworth is a leading insurance holding company, serving

the lifestyle protection, retirement income, investment,

and mortgage insurance needs of more than 15 million

customers. It has operations in 25 countries. For more

information, visit www.genworth.com.

Preface This report from The Conference Board of Canada and

Genworth Financial Canada offers an in-depth analysis of

the condominium market for Canada’s eight largest census

metropolitan areas (CMAs). The report covers a wide

range of condominium market statistics, such as starts,

completions, absorptions, and prices. The main goal of

this publication is to provide an analysis of the recent

trends in the condo market in each of the eight CMAs, as

well as an analysis of where each of the eight markets

is heading over the next five years.

The eight census metropolitan areas covered are Québec

City, Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton,

Vancouver, and Victoria.

This report is published twice a year, in summer

and winter.

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Québec City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

Montréal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Ottawa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Toronto . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Calgary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Edmonton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Vancouver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Victoria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Definitions and Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21

Contents

The Conference Board of Canada

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The market for condominium

apartments is a challenging one in

2009. Hampered by high and rising

inventories in most areas, starts are

forecast to trail 2008 levels this year

in all eight of the markets covered

in this report. On the resale side,

2009 sales and price growth will

be below last year’s in all eight

areas. But markets should begin

their recovery in 2010, with starts

rebounding in five markets, resale

volumes stable or higher across the

board, and significant resale price

drops a thing of the past.

The underlying demographic and

affordability considerations that had

fuelled the recent growth in condo-

minium construction remain in place.

The population of empty nesters

aged at least 55 years continues to

rise, with estimated hikes in 2008

ranging from 2.5 per cent in Ottawa

in 2008 to 5.1 per cent in Calgary.

Moreover, during the decade to

2008, this cohort’s population share

rose in all markets, with rises rang-

ing from 2.4 percentage points in

Toronto to 6.3 points in Québec

City. Victoria remains our “oldest”

city, with 31 per cent of its popula-

tion over 55; Calgary’s 19 per cent

55+ share makes it our “youngest.”

Condominiums also represent an

affordable ownership alternative:

across Canada, the 2008 median

condominium sales price (or, in the

case of Montréal and Québec City,

the average sales price) was a mini-

mum of 12 per cent below the aver-

age for all types of housing, with

condominiums’ advantage swelling

to above 40 per cent in Ottawa,

Toronto, and Vancouver.

In the immediate term, however,

the current economic malaise and

inventory run-ups are giving devel-

opers pause. Accordingly, condo-

minium starts are expected to drop

in all eight markets in 2009, with

Calgary’s 65 per cent drop and

Toronto’s 54 per cent decline the most

notable. These two cities’ expected

2009 declines are also the largest in

absolute terms: 3,460 units and

12,470 units respectively. Despite

such dips, 2009 condominium starts

will remain above the 1999–2008

average in all but the Alberta cities

and Toronto.

Starts will rebound modestly in

many markets during 2010, although

lower volumes are expected in the

Quebec markets and Ottawa. Toronto

will post the biggest rise, at 8.5 per

cent. More broadly, condominium

Executive Summary

Starts Resale sales Resale price ($)*

2008 2009f 2010f 2008 2009f 2010f 2008 2009f 2010f

Québec City 1,111 897 814 1,780 1,703 1,796 169,684 171,462 174,486 52.4 –19.3 –9.2 –2.4 –4.3 5.5 8.6 1.0 1.8

Montréal 8,001 6,410 5,847 11,561 10,335 11,130 217,260 217,474 224,522 17.2 –19.9 –8.8 0.1 –10.6 7.7 1.6 0.1 3.2

Ottawa 1,501 1,277 1,103 1,401 1,316 1,472 208,063 212,221 213,155 42.0 –15.0 –13.6 –7.8 –6.1 11.9 11.3 2.0 0.4

Toronto 23,161 10,689 11,599 18,464 16,662 18,349 239,667 214,887 212,734 146.5 –53.8 8.5 –14.0 –9.8 10.1 3.8 –10.3 –1.0

Calgary 5,335 1,874 1,935 3,525 3,312 3,307 258,039 239,858 244,702 59.7 –64.9 3.2 –26.0 –6.0 –0.2 –5.7 –7.0 2.0

Edmonton 2,507 2,072 2,118 2,890 2,772 2,799 231,029 218,986 222,699 –35.0 –17.3 2.2 –34.6 –4.1 1.0 –0.6 –5.2 1.7

Vancouver 11,496 9,016 9,229 11,006 9,141 11,018 337,021 293,260 296,085 –7.1 –21.6 2.4 –32.8 –16.9 20.5 2.4 –13.0 1.0

Victoria 928 826 844 1,801 1,485 1,757 285,600 258,590 260,936–34.3 –11.0 2.1 –25.2 –17.5 18.3 4.0 –9.5 0.9

*Resale prices are the median everywhere, except in Québec City and Montréal, where they are the average.Resale sales and average prices in Montréal and Québec City include all condominium styles, not just apartments.Italics indicate percentage change. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

Table 1—Apartment Condo Indicators

2 The Conference Board of Canada /Genworth Financial Canada

construction appears to have hit a

down-cycle, with average annual

starts in the next five years expected

to be lower than those in the last

five in all markets but Ottawa.

In many markets, large invento-

ries of unsold condominiums have

suppressed builder zeal to build new

units. The 2008 count of completed

and unoccupied units rose sharply in

the four westernmost markets follow-

ing big 2007 jumps everywhere but

Edmonton. Although builder inven-

tories declined in all four eastern

markets during 2008, stocks will jump

in Toronto, Ottawa, and Québec

City during 2009. Inventories will

generally be whittled away in 2010,

with all markets except Edmonton

expected to see a decrease.

Apartment condominium resale

volumes fell in seven of eight markets

last year, while remaining flat in

Montréal. Drops were steepest in the

West, with volumes off by roughly

a third in Edmonton and Vancouver

and down about a quarter in Calgary

and Victoria. The East’s relatively

modest declines were led by Toronto’s

14 per cent drop. Although sales will

dip in all eight markets this year, a

more modest decline will generally

prevail: Victoria’s 17.5 per cent

drop is the largest expected, and

five of the eight drops are forecast

to be less than 10 per cent.

Weak pricing is to be expected

in this environment. During 2008,

growth in median (average in the

Quebec cities) prices was below 2007

levels in all markets but Ottawa.

Median prices actually fell in Calgary

and Edmonton. More difficulty is

expected in 2009, with lower average

prices foreseen in Toronto, Calgary,

Edmonton, Vancouver, and Victoria

and stability in Montréal. Only mod-

erate price growth is expected in the

medium-term, as annual advances

will average roughly 3 per cent or

less everywhere.

The upside to weak pricing

frequently comes in the form of

improved affordability. During

2008, the proportion of average

household income consumed by

mortgage payments fell in four

markets. It rose significantly only

in Ottawa—and even then, just to

a still-modest level. All eight cities

will see affordability improve in

2009 as prices rise more slowly or

actually decline.

The Conference Board of Canada /Genworth Financial Canada 3

From 2005 to 2007, demand

in Québec City’s resale apartment

condominium market increased at

a rapid pace, with growth in unit

sales rising by an annual average of

14.9 per cent. A good part of this

increase was driven by the signifi-

cant increase in the proportion of the

population over 55—a prime target

market for condominiums. Québec

City had the fastest-growing share

of this population in the country

over the past 10 years.

However, between 2004 and

2006, the increase in the supply of

condominiums outweighed rising

demand, as sellers were enticed into

the market after several years of

strong price increases in the early

part of the decade. As a result, the

sales-to-new-listings ratio fell from

19.6 per cent to 13.4 per cent. This

helped to keep price growth in check

from 2005 to 2006, with resale price

growth averaging 5.2 per cent per

year—much lower than the 15.6 per

cent average annual growth seen

over the previous three years. But

listings slipped back in 2007, pushing

up the sales-to new-listings ratio,

which, in turn, drove prices up by

11.3 per cent that year.

The condo market weakened

considerably last year, in terms of

both demand and supply, although

price growth remained strong at

8.6 per cent. The latest price increases

have eroded affordability in the cen-

sus metropolitan area (CMA). In

the first quarter of 2008, monthly

mortgage payments as a share of

total household income peaked at

16.6 per cent, 3 percentage points

higher than just two years prior and

a full 5 percentage points higher

than at the start of 2003. This dete-

riorating affordability is one reason

why demand has continued to ease

in recent months. After falling by

2.4 per cent in 2008, unit sales of

existing apartment condominiums are

expected to drop a further 4.3 per

cent this year.

Lower price growth over the next

few years and an aging population

will help to lure buyers back to the

market starting in 2010. Still, resale

prices are forecast to grow by an

average of only 1.8 per cent over

the medium term (2010 to 2013).

On the other hand, activity in the

new apartment condominium market

is expected to moderate over the

medium term. The new condo mar-

ket enjoyed strong growth early this

decade, but then stalled from 2005

to 2007. After breaking ground on

nearly 1,200 units in 2004, builders

began to retreat from the market in

2005 as months’ supply climbed to

2.7 months, up substantially from

its low of 0.6 months in 2002.

Surprisingly, builders were back

with a vengeance last year, increas-

ing starts by more than 50 per cent.

Chart 2—Apartment Condo Construction

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

0

10

20

30

40

50

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f

Apartment condo starts (units left)

Starts as a per cent of multiple starts (right)

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing TimeSeries Database.

Québec City’s new and resale apartment condominium markets are

weakening this year. But the resale market is expected to pick up in

2010 and remain on an upward trend through the medium term thanks

to an increasing share of the population 55 and older. Meanwhile, the

new market will continue to slow, the result of high inventories.

Québec City

Chart 1—Share of Population by Age Cohort

1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.


Unfortunately, at this level, starts

are unsustainable, especially in the

current weak economic environment.

Months’ supply also continued to rise

over 2008, and is expected to rise

further this year, reaching 3.7 months.

Accordingly, starts are forecast to

fall 19.3 this year and an additional

9.2 per cent in 2010. Starts will

then continue on a downward trend

through the medium term, dropping

to 760 units by 2013.

Table 2—New Condominium Apartment Market

2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 1,026 729 1,111 897 814 776 753 760–9.0 –28.9 52.4 –19.3 –9.2 –4.6 –3.0 0.9

Under construction 579 457 676 812 648 628 619 613–24.7 –21.1 48.1 20.1 –20.2 –3.1 –1.4 –1.1

Completions 1,200 770 967 811 772 749 737 7320.9 –35.8 25.6 –16.1 –4.9 –3.0 –1.5 –0.7

Complete and not absorbed 261 221 178 245 235 235 238 2405.8 –15.1 –19.7 37.9 –3.9 0.0 1.2 0.8

Absorptions 1,168 875 950 793 766 744 734 7304.5 –25.1 8.6 –16.5 –3.4 –2.9 –1.3 –0.5

Months’ supply 2.7 3.0 2.2 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9

Italics indicate percentage change.Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

Chart 3—Affordability and Condo Sales

048

121620

05001,0001,5002,0002,500

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f

Per cent of household income spent on mortgage (left)Existing apartment condo sales (units—right)

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Quebec Federation ofReal Estate Boards.

Table 1—Resale Condominium Market

2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 1,549 1,824 1,780 1,703 1,796 1,858 1,936 2,0236.8 17.8 –2.4 –4.3 5.5 3.4 4.2 4.5

Active listings 961 910 801 959 1,107 1,258 1,404 1,53722.5 –5.3 –12.0 19.8 15.4 13.6 11.7 9.5

Months’ supply 8.6 7.2 5.8 6.7 7.5 8.5 9.2 9.7Average price 140,383 156,310 169,684 171,462 174,486 177,940 180,745 184,302

3.8 11.3 8.6 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.6 2.0


Chart 4—Sales to Active Listings and Price Change

-505

1015202530

-10-50510152025

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f

Sales-to-active-listings ratio (per cent—left)Average price growth (per cent—right)



Resale sales and starts of apart-

ment condominiums in Montréal

rose sharply through the first half of

this decade. The strong growth was

spurred on by pent-up demand and

low interest rates, as well as by a

host of baby boomers wishing to

downsize and by wealthy foreigners

and young professionals choosing

to live in the heart of the city. With

months’ supply still relatively low at

that time, however, the sellers’ mar-

ket fuelled a sharp rise in prices. In

fact, apartment condominium resale

prices grew by an average of 16.9 per

cent per year from 2002 to 2004.

While these higher prices even-

tually lured more sellers to the resale

market, they did little to detract

buyers. From 2005 to 2007, sales of

existing apartment condominiums

continued to rise at an average rate

of 11.3 per cent per year, in spite

of the fact that affordability in the

market, measured as the ratio of

monthly mortgage payments to

household income, climbed from

18 per cent in the first quarter of

2005 to 21.6 per cent in the final

quarter of 2007.

Although the resale market con-

tinued to shine through 2005 to 2007,

the new apartment condominium

market weakened, as builders were

restrained by rising inventories. From

2004 to 2006, months’ supply jumped

from 1.95 months to 4.37 months,

even with the sharp decline in starts.

By 2007, annual starts were down

by 2,500 units from their 2004 peak

of 9,345 units.

The resale market finally began

to cool last year. Average resale

prices eased sharply, increasing just

1.6 per cent in 2008. As well, exist-

ing-unit sales increased at their

slowest pace on record, climbing

by a mere 0.1 per cent, Meanwhile, in

the new market, a strong first quarter

pushed Montréal’s apartment con-

dominium starts up by a whopping

17.2 per cent for the year as a whole.

Unfortunately, this growth was met

by falling demand, as absorptions—

that is, units that were sold or

rented—slipped 26.3 per cent. As

a result, starts were much weaker

through the last half of the year.

The resale apartment condo-

minium market is expected to weaken

further this year, in line with the

struggling economy. In fact, existing

sales are expected to fall for the first

time, while average price growth is

projected to be flat. Likewise, starts

are forecast to drop by 19.9 per cent,

the largest fall since 1995.

An economic recovery coupled

with good population growth, includ-

ing a higher share of the population

55 and older, will bode well for

demand in the resale condominium

In line with the weak economy, unit sales in Montréal’s resale

apartment condominium market are forecast to drop in 2009, as are

starts in its new market. The resale market should begin to bounce

back in 2010, however, as the economy improves. Meanwhile, con-

tinued high inventory levels will keep starts falling through 2012.

Montréal


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

10

20

30

40

50

60

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f





1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+



market through the medium term.

Unit sales of existing apartment

condominiums are expected to rise

by an average of 7.8 per cent annu-

ally from 2010 to 2013, pushing

average resale prices up by 3.1 per

cent per year, on average, over the

same time frame. But with invento-

ries in the new market remaining

high, starts will continue to fall

through 2012. Roughly 5,500 condo-

minium starts are expected in 2013.


2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 7,578 6,826 8,001 6,410 5,847 5,605 5,464 5,541–5.0 –9.9 17.2 –19.9 –8.8 –4.1 –2.5 1.4

Under construction 7,279 5,594 6,087 6,352 4,976 5,002 4,936 4,8451.7 –23.1 8.8 4.4 –21.7 0.5 –1.3 –1.8

Completions 7,773 7,936 6,418 5,798 5,531 5,412 5,248 5,216–2.4 2.1 –19.1 –9.7 –4.6 –2.2 –3.0 –0.6

Complete and not absorbed 2,342 2,148 1,711 1,506 1,327 1,270 1,249 1,24141.8 –8.3 –20.3 –12.0 –11.9 –4.3 –1.6 –0.6

Absorptions 6,425 9,189 6,775 5,930 5,626 5,440 5,270 5,214–16.7 43.0 –26.3 –12.5 –5.1 –3.3 –3.1 –1.1

Months’ supply 4.4 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9


Table 1—Resale Condominium Market

2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 9,696 11,551 11,561 10,335 11,130 11,825 12,589 13,9563.1 19.1 0.1 –10.6 7.7 6.2 6.5 10.9

Active listings 6,959 6,952 7,035 7,336 7,944 8,809 9,661 10,81719.1 –0.1 1.2 4.3 8.3 10.9 9.7 12.0

Months’ supply 9.5 8.5 8.0 8.2 8.6 9.4 10.1 10.5Average price 202,842 213,928 217,260 217,474 224,522 232,421 239,171 245,958

4.0 5.5 1.6 0.1 3.2 3.5 2.9 2.8


Chart 3—Affordability and Condo Sales

51015202530

03,0006,0009,00012,00015,000

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f




05

101520253035

-5051015202530

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f

Sales-to-active-listings ratio (per cent—left)Average price growth (per cent—right)



Troubles in the region’s high-

tech industry through the early part

of this decade kept buyers at bay in

Ottawa’s resale apartment condo-

minium market. Thankfully, by 2005,

a stronger economy was finally

pulling buyers back into the market.

Unit sales rose 0.2 per cent that

year, before averaging growth of

13.1 per cent annually over 2006

and 2007.

However, stepping into the resale

market was not without cost. From

2001 to 2004, median resale prices

climbed an average of 13.7 per cent

per year. And although prices took a

breather in 2005 and 2006, growing

by a modest 3 per cent annually, they

then increased by 6.6 per cent in 2007

and an additional 11.3 per cent in

2008. All told, this price growth has

had a big impact on affordability in

the region. In 2000, a resale buyer

could expect mortgage costs to reach

9 per cent of household income. By

the end of 2008, this ratio had bal-

looned to nearly 17 per cent. Buyers

may have finally reached their break-

ing point, as unit sales slipped by

7.8 per cent last year.

The new condominium apart-

ment market has come into its own

this decade. Only 130 apartment

units were started on an average

annual basis in the 1990s. But starts

have been on a strong upward trend

in the 2000s, reaching a record

1,500 units last year. Much of this

growth may have been driven by

pent-up demand from the previous

decade, as well as lower interest

rates starting in 2001. The combi-

nation of low starts and pent-up

demand resulted in a tight market

at the start of the decade—months’

supply had fallen to 0.4 months. By

2008, months’ supply had moved

back up to 1.8 months.

The outlook for 2009 is weak.

Both the new and resale apartment

condominium markets are projected

to contract. Demand has weakened

in line with the slowing overall

economy, pushing down starts in

the new market and unit sales in the

resale market. And the cuts may

become deeper still, as the forecast

15 per cent decline in starts will not

be enough to keep months’ supply

from rising again in 2009, this time

to 4.4 months.

Even with the significant

decline in starts forecast for

2009, they will still reach nearly

1,300 units—relatively high by

historical standards. At this level,

starts are unsustainable. As a result,

they will continue to weaken over

the longer term, moving more in

line with demand.

In the resale market, things will

begin to look up starting in 2010. An

improved economy as well as a higher

Sales of existing apartment condominiums in Ottawa are forecast

to fall this year, in line with the slowdown in the overall economy. Starts

of new units are also expected to decline. While the resale market is

forecast to pick up in 2010, starts will keep falling from their unsustain-

ably high levels.

Ottawa


0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

0510152025303540

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f





1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+



number of baby boomers in the

city looking for ways to downsize

should help to keep unit sales of

apartment condominiums on an

upward trend through the medium

term. From 2010 to 2013, sales are

forecast to average 7.1 per cent

annually. Median price growth in

the resale market is forecast to

come in at just 0.4 per cent in

2010, and then keep increasing at

an average of 2.1 per cent per year

for the rest of the forecast period

(2011 to 2013).


2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 1,183 1,057 1,501 1,277 1,103 1,048 1,061 1,02886.6 –10.7 42.0 –15.0 –13.6 –5.0 1.2 –3.1

Under construction 1,277 1,536 1,806 1,436 1,318 1,116 1,057 1,09311.2 20.3 17.6 –20.5 –8.2 –15.3 –5.3 3.4

Completions 712 1,200 1,047 1,212 1,150 1,138 1,133 1,131–20.8 68.5 –12.8 15.8 –5.1 –1.1 –0.4 –0.2

Complete and not absorbed 75 183 164 391 99 69 162 223–12.1 145.0 –10.1 138.3 –74.8 –30.1 134.8 37.6

Absorptions 724 1,049 1,124 1,068 1,444 1,037 1,053 1,083–18.2 44.9 7.1 –5.0 35.2 –28.2 1.5 2.9

Months’ supply 1.2 2.1 1.8 4.4 0.8 0.8 1.8 2.5

Italics indicate percentage change.Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate Association.

Table 1—Resale Condominium Apartment Market

2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 1,358 1,520 1,401 1,316 1,472 1,508 1,610 1,73014.2 11.9 –7.8 –6.1 11.9 2.4 6.8 7.5

Active listings 436 379 398 407 368 360 383 4161.0 –13.2 5.1 2.2 –9.6 –2.1 6.3 8.6

Months’ supply 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2Median price 175,413 186,975 208,063 212,221 213,155 216,826 221,128 226,647

1.7 6.6 11.3 2.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 2.5


Chart 3—Affordability and Apartment Condo Sales

51015202530

04008001,2001,6002,000

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f


Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association.


2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09f 10f 11f 12f 13f-100-50

050

100150

0510152025

Sales-to-active-listings ratio (per cent—left)Median price growth (per cent—right)



Affordability in Toronto’s apart-

ment condominium market declined

significantly between 2005 and 2007.

After hovering near 14 per cent

though the first half of this decade,

monthly mortgage payments as a

per cent of total household income

rose to 17 per cent in the final quarter

of 2007. This increase was partly

price driven, as median resale prices

increased at an average of 6.6 per

cent annually, reaching nearly

$231,000 in 2007. But it was also

due to weaker income growth from

2002 onward.

Despite the decline in afford-

ability, demand continued to grow.

Although unit sales increased a

modest 3.3 per cent per year on

average over 2005 and 2006, they

then jumped by 17 per cent in

2007. For locals, this market was

still relatively cheaper than the single-

home market. There was also incen-

tive for foreign investors looking to

diversify given the even more expen-

sive U.S. condominium market. In

addition, buyers continued to be

attracted by low interest rates over

this period.

But by 2007, there were signs

that the good times were coming to

end. The sales-to-active-listings ratio,

which had been between 25 and

27 per cent from 2003 to 2006, had

increased to 37 per cent. As well,

the global economy was showing

signs of significant stress. Not sur-

prisingly, buyers pulled back last year,

dragging unit sales down 14 per cent.

Part of the blame for the sales decline

may also be due to the City of

Toronto’s land transfer tax, which

came into effect on February 1, 2008.

With economic conditions expected

to remain difficult in 2009, a further

9.8 per cent decline in unit sales is

forecast this year. Moreover, median

resale prices are expected to tumble

by 10.3 per cent in 2009, bringing

the ratio of monthly mortgage pay-

ments to household income back to

12.7 per cent by the final quarter of

this year.

New apartment condominium

starts had been trending upward since

the middle of last decade. Although

starts fell in each of 2006 and 2007,

they enjoyed an enormous comeback

last year, thanks to a blowout first

quarter. In fact, starts more than

doubled in 2008, reaching a record

23,200 units. Builders were likely

responding to lower inventories, as

the number of completed but unoc-

cupied units fell by an average of

36.2 per cent per year from 2006 to

2008, bringing months’ supply down

to 0.2 months last year. The growth

may also reflect prior years’ pre-sales,

agreed upon when the global eco-

nomic environment was more stable,

given that in most cases, a high per-

centage of a building’s units must

The new and resale apartment condominium markets will feel the

pinch of the global economic downturn this year, pulling starts, existing-

unit sales, and prices all lower. Better economic conditions, relatively

improved affordability, and an increasing share of the population 55 and

older will boost demand starting in 2010.

Toronto


04,0008,000

12,00016,00020,00024,000

020406080100120

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f





1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+



be pre-sold before the bank will

approve developer’s financing.

Unfortunately, the new apartment

condominium market will also feel

the impact of the recession in 2009,

with starts falling to 10,700 units

this year. But both the new and resale

markets are expected to show new

signs of life in 2010 as the global

economy begins to recover. Relative

affordability compared with the single-

home market together with an aging

population will also help support

demand in the coming years. How-

ever, given the significant growth

in starts last year, it will take some

time to clear the inventory from

the new condo market. As a result,

months’ supply will continue to rise

through the medium term.


2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 13,338 9,396 23,161 10,689 11,599 13,281 15,001 16,430–7.2 –29.6 146.5 –53.8 8.5 14.5 13.0 9.5

Under construction 24,808 25,563 31,874 31,914 24,387 20,140 18,786 18,3602.6 3.0 24.7 0.1 –23.6 –17.4 –6.7 –2.3

Completions 13,581 7,528 13,374 15,252 13,134 13,775 14,481 15,09111.9 –44.6 77.7 14.0 –13.9 4.9 5.1 4.2

Complete and not absorbed 595 357 233 970 778 813 1,090 1,380–33.8 –40.0 –34.7 315.8 –19.8 4.4 34.1 26.6

Absorptions 13,397 8,055 13,287 14,521 13,452 13,565 14,190 14,8088.3 –39.9 65.0 9.3 –7.4 0.8 4.6 4.4

Months’ supply 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1



2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 18,359 21,482 18,464 16,662 18,349 19,308 20,882 22,2833.8 17.0 –14.0 –9.8 10.1 5.2 8.1 6.7

Active listings 5,573 4,863 5,344 6,164 6,059 5,975 6,132 6,3897.8 –12.7 9.9 15.3 –1.7 –1.4 2.6 4.2


6.1 8.1 3.8 –10.3 –1.0 3.2 4.0 4.2



048

121620

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f




0102030405060

-12-8-404812

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f




Calgary apartment condominium

starts are poised to drop nearly two-

thirds this year to under 1,900 units,

following last year’s all-time high

of 5,335 units. Builder inventories

of unabsorbed apartments—that is,

units not yet sold or rented—had

already risen more than tenfold

between 2006 and 2008, albeit from

near zero. Inventories are forecast

to increase ninefold in 2009 as soft

absorptions in the first half of the

year significantly trail completions.

And even though absorptions will

pick up in the second half of the

year, builder inventories will stay

high, pressuring apartment starts

below 2,000 units in both 2009 and

2010. This is well below the almost

3,200 apartments started annually

in the decade to 2008. A modest

recovery in absorptions in 2010 and

thereafter will propel starts slightly

higher.

Calgary’s condominium demo-

graphics have soured recently.

Although the area is relatively

youthful—featuring the lowest

population share of people aged

at least 55 among this report’s

eight cities—its strong population

growth has generally buoyed hous-

ing demand. Now, a slowing econ-

omy is undermining in-migration.

Calgary’s population growth of 2 per

cent in 2009 will be the smallest gain

since 2004 and well off the 2.7 per

cent annual average expansion

between 1998 and 2007. Population

growth will remain healthy in

2010–2013, but average a more

modest 1.8 per cent annually.

The market for existing Calgary

apartment condominiums has also

turned. Big upswings in the supply

of active listings during 2007 and

2008 have given buyers the upper

hand following robust sellers’ con-

ditions in 2006 and early 2007.

Accordingly, prices are easing. The

market is expected to weaken further

in 2009. Sales are forecast to fall by

6 per cent this year, on the heels of

a 26 per cent decline in 2008. But

sales are forecast to stabilize in 2010

and rise 6.1 per cent on average

between 2011 and 2013.

Active listings of apartment

condominiums more than doubled

in 2008 following a near tripling in

2007. The 2008 average, north of

2,000 units, was likely the high-water

mark for listings. This run-up put

Calgary’s apartment condominium

sales-to-active-listings ratio below

13 per cent, the lowest on record.

Listings are forecast to drop 14.6 per

cent in 2009 and continue falling in

2010–2012. Ultimately, this will allow

the sales-to-active-listings ratio to

rise to sellers’ levels near and above

30 per cent, although it will remain

at buyers’ market levels below 20 per

cent through early 2010.

Such buyers’ market conditions

have depressed apartment condo-

minium prices after two years of

Calgary Calgary’s existing apartment condominium market is searching for

its bottom following a sharp downturn in 2008. Unfortunately, resale

volumes and prices are expected to fall further in 2009. Meanwhile,

a big backlog of unsold new apartment condominiums will cut starts

sharply this year.


01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

020406080100120

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f





1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+



spectacular growth. The median

price fell 5.7 per cent in 2008 after

rising 48 per cent in 2006 and 21 per

cent in 2007. A further 7 per cent

price decline is expected in 2009,

before modest growth resumes in

2010.

Easing prices are improving

Calgary’s housing affordability,

which had sharply deteriorated.

The monthly payment required to

finance Calgary’s median apartment

condominium nearly doubled

between 2005 and 2007, devouring

15.3 per cent of average household

income in 2007. Softening price

growth will allow household incomes

to catch up this year, cutting the

payment-to-income ratio to under

12 per cent in both 2009 and 2010.


2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 4,222 3,340 5,335 1,874 1,935 2,055 2,146 2,17851.9 –20.9 59.7 –64.9 3.2 6.2 4.4 1.5

Under construction 5,386 6,351 8,360 4,603 3,436 3,047 3,108 3,22030.1 17.9 31.6 –44.9 –25.3 –11.3 2.0 3.6

Completions 2,790 1,926 4,619 2,798 2,761 2,790 2,815 2,8287.1 –31.0 139.8 –39.4 –1.3 1.0 0.9 0.5

Complete and not absorbed 5 10 55 504 298 343 420 455–97.5 110.5 450.0 815.8 –40.9 15.4 22.1 8.4

Absorptions 2,840 1,903 4,580 2,522 2,836 2,685 2,757 2,8054.2 –33.0 140.7 –44.9 12.4 –5.3 2.7 1.7

Months’ supply 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.9



2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 3,936 4,764 3,525 3,312 3,307 3,480 3,725 3,95216.5 21.0 –26.0 –6.0 –0.2 5.2 7.0 6.1

Active listings 348 996 2,008 1,714 1,283 1,088 1,042 1,038–23.0 186.4 101.6 –14.6 –25.2 –15.2 –4.2 –0.4


47.9 21.3 –5.7 –7.0 2.0 3.1 2.3 2.3



0

5

10

15

20

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f




020406080

100120

-1001020304050

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f




Apartment condominium starts

in Edmonton tumbled to just over

2,500 units in 2008, following 2007’s

record 3,856-unit output. Starts

weakened as 2008 progressed, with

seasonally adjusted volumes in the

second half of the year averaging

roughly one-quarter those in the

first half. Still, last year’s output

exceeded the 1998–2007 average

of 2,235 units. Moreover, new-unit

demand remained healthy, with

absorptions up nearly 7 per cent in

2008, following dips in 2005 and

2007. Absorptions will stabilize this

year, but resume growth in 2010.

This growth in units that are sold or

rented will ultimately support higher

starts, although a second decline is

expected in 2009. Subsequent years

will see starts inch up.

While builders’ new-unit inven-

tories are rising in Edmonton, the

jump is relatively smaller than in

Calgary and is not expected to test

2005’s record average backlog of

about 575 units until 2013. None-

theless, rising new-unit inventories

will limit the growth in starts.

The relative youth of Edmonton’s

population could expose its condo-

minium market to demographic chal-

lenges as total population growth

slows. Edmonton’s share of the

condominium-seeking 55 and over

cohort is the second lowest of this

report’s eight cities. With total pop-

ulation growth forecast to hit a five-

year low of 1.6 per cent in 2009 and

to slow further thereafter, trends

among this empty-nester crowd

bear watching.

The resale condominium market

will encounter further turbulence in

2009 following a rough 2008. Still,

the big run-up in listings in 2007

and 2008, along with the outsized

drop in 2008 condominium sales,

shaved only 0.6 per cent from

Edmonton’s average condominium

price last year. And, while apartment

sales fell 35 per cent last year, the

2,890 transactions still significantly

exceeded the prior 10 years’ average.

Moreover, the bulk of the sales decline

is over: transactions are expected to

fall a further 4.1 per cent this year,

before beginning to recover with a

1 per cent advance in 2010. Fairly

solid sales growth is expected over

the medium term, although volumes

will remain below the 2007 peak.

At least partly motivated by

rapidly rising prices, Edmonton

condo owners boosted listings by

over 300 per cent in 2007 and another

36 per cent in 2008. These rising

listings, together with falling sales,

cut Edmonton’s apartment sales-to-

active-listings ratio to under 12 per

cent by 2008’s fourth quarter, follow-

ing several quarterly readings near

100 per cent in 2006. While rising

sales and slowing listings will eventu-

ally boost this ratio back into sellers’

market territory, buyers’ conditions

Edmonton Edmonton’s new and resale condominium markets have slowed

sharply, as a run-up in resale listings and fewer new unit absorptions

over the past two years have trimmed resale prices and boosted

inventories. Condominium markets will remain oversupplied in 2009

but begin to recover in 2010.


0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

01020304050607080

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f





1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+



will prevail into 2009. Althrough

buyers’ market conditions suggest

a further 5.2 per cent price drop

awaits in 2009, modest growth is

forecast to return in 2010.

Last year’s flattening condo-

minium price did improve local

affordability. The monthly payment

required to finance Edmonton’s

average resale condominium levelled

in 2008 after big jumps in 2006 and

2007. This payment consumed

15.7 per cent of household income in

2008, down slightly from 16.2 per

cent in 2007. The 2009 price dip

will shave condominium mortgage

payments to under 13.5 per cent of

household income in 2009 and 2010.


2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 3,445 3,856 2,507 2,072 2,118 2,228 2,304 2,31611.2 11.9 –35.0 –17.3 2.2 5.2 3.4 0.5

Under construction 4,815 5,914 7,203 4,577 3,319 2,995 2,965 2,98324.5 22.8 21.8 –36.5 –27.5 –9.8 –1.0 0.6

Completions 2,631 2,098 2,366 2,500 2,652 2,699 2,737 2,75422.4 –20.3 12.8 5.7 6.1 1.8 1.4 0.6

Complete and not absorbed 250 47 130 323 396 463 539 595–56.6 –81.1 175.1 148.7 22.6 16.9 16.3 10.6

Absorptions 2,992 2,130 2,271 2,301 2,601 2,620 2,667 2,70636.4 –28.8 6.6 1.3 13.0 0.7 1.8 1.4

Months’ supply 1.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6



2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 3,848 4,422 2,890 2,772 2,799 3,000 3,245 3,53251.2 14.9 –34.6 –4.1 1.0 7.2 8.2 8.8

Active listings 342 1,421 1,933 1,284 813 753 793 856–54.9 316.0 36.1 –33.6 –36.7 –7.5 5.4 8.0


25.8 41.1 –0.6 –5.2 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.3



01020304050

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f




020406080

100120

-1001020304050

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f




Vancouver apartment condo-

minium starts pulled back to

11,500 units in 2008, following a

record of nearly 12,400 units in

2007. This modest annual decline

masked significant weakening between

the first and fourth quarter as annu-

alized starts fell 26 per cent and unab-

sorbed builder inventories more than

doubled. Expected absorptions—that

is, sales and rentals of new units—of

8,300 units in 2009 and of 8,300 to

8,800 units between 2010 and 2013

will significantly trail the annual

average near 9,400 units in 2006–2008.

As a result, builder stocks are fore-

cast to average over 1,200 units in

2009—more than triple the 2008

figure and far higher than the annual

averages of below 100 units in

2004–2006. In turn, inventory over-

hangs will limit starts to the low

9,000-unit range in 2009 and 2010.

Still, condominiums retain attrac-

tion, particularly near the urban core,

where single detached housing is

expensive or unavailable. Moreover,

Vancouver’s currently low rental

vacancy rate enhances leasing pos-

sibilities for condominium owners.

However, affordability concerns con-

tinue to limit Vancouver’s attrac-

tiveness to retirees, despite its mild

climate and exceptional natural sur-

roundings. Those aged 55 or more

accounted for 24 per cent of the local

population in 2008, near the average

of this report’s other seven cities

and well behind Victoria’s 31 per

cent. Furthermore, the 37 per cent

rise in Vancouver’s 55-plus popula-

tion and the 3.8 percentage-point rise

in its population share during the

10 years to 2008 are unexceptional.

Sales of existing apartment

condominiums fell by a third to

11,000 units in 2008, after a 2007

drop near 10 per cent. The consecu-

tive declines leave condo sales 39 per

cent below the market’s 2006 peak.

Although sales are forecast to

drop a further 17 per cent to under

9,200 units in 2009, they will

bounce back with a 20 per cent

increase in 2010. Longer term,

volumes will generally rise, albeit

not to peak levels.

Slowing sales and investors’

desire to benefit from this decade’s

strong price growth boosted active

listings 11 per cent in 2007 and

72 per cent in 2008. Last year’s

6,765-unit average listings volume

was nearly double 2005’s. Active

listings are expected to stabilize

starting this year.

Rising listings cut the sales-to-

active-listings ratio to 10 per cent

in 2008’s fourth quarter, the lowest

since 1999 and well below the

15–16 per cent typical of a balanced

Vancouver condominium market.

Despite modest increases, this ratio

will remain in buyers’ market terri-

tory through 2009 and 2010. This

buyers’ stance will prompt a 13 per

A slowing economy, combined with Vancouver’s poor affordability, is

significantly impairing condominium sales, starts, and prices. This envi-

ronment is prompting aggressive developer marketing, varied building

designs, and atypical locations. Moderating population growth and

ongoing affordability issues will limit the recovery from a weak 2009.

Vancouver


02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,000

2030405060708090

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f





1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+



cent correction in Vancouver’s average

condominium price this year and

keep price growth below 4 per cent

in 2010 to 2013—a big change from

the double-digit percentage increases

posted between 2002 and 2007.

Persistently poor affordability is

also culpable in the downturn. The

monthly payment required to finance

Vancouver’s average resale condo-

minium consumed 26 per cent of

average household income in 2008,

easily our report’s highest. This

year’s forecast price decline will put

average mortgage payments below

21 per cent of household incomes,

with little change expected in 2010.

The payment-to-income ratio is

expected to rise thereafter, but

remain below the 2008 peak.


2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 8,845 12,376 11,496 9,016 9,229 9,686 9,994 10,230–4.8 39.9 –7.1 –21.6 2.4 5.0 3.2 2.4

Under construction 14,421 15,978 18,907 14,566 12,335 11,150 10,300 10,05816.5 10.8 18.3 –23.0 –15.3 –9.6 –7.6 –2.4

Completions 8,052 8,835 11,689 8,799 8,623 8,489 8,553 8,73222.1 9.7 32.3 –24.7 –2.0 –1.5 0.8 2.1

Complete and not absorbed 79 163 346 1,206 956 989 1,196 1,425–5.1 105.0 112.6 249.2 –20.7 3.4 20.9 19.2

Absorptions 8,091 8,768 11,290 8,306 8,766 8,324 8,328 8,51222.9 8.4 28.8 –26.4 5.5 –5.0 0.1 2.2

Months’ supply 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0



2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 18,183 16,387 11,006 9,141 11,018 11,810 13,104 14,5356.0 –9.9 –32.8 –16.9 20.5 7.2 11.0 10.9

Active listings 3,555 3,945 6,765 6,669 6,481 6,314 5,905 5,8825.8 11.0 71.5 –1.4 –2.8 –2.6 –6.5 –0.4


18.7 12.2 2.4 –13.0 1.0 3.0 3.5 4.0



01020304050

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f




01020304050

-15-10-505101520

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f




Condominium apartment starts in

Victoria fell by a third to 928 units

in 2008, the victim of rising new and

resale supplies, a slowing economy,

and weak affordability. Still, this

output exceeded the 650-unit aver-

age during the decade to 2007 and

reflected relatively small declines

in new-unit absorption. Starts will

decline a further 11 per cent to

826 units in 2009, before starting

to recover in 2010. But starts will

still be well below 2006–2007 peak

levels in 2013.

Builder inventories more than

tripled in 2008, as over 180 more

apartment condominiums were

completed than were sold or rented.

The number of unabsorbed condos

averaged 262 units in 2008’s fourth

quarter, the most since 1996, pre-

senting a potent deterrent to starts.

Inventories will back up further in

2009, averaging 296 units, but

decline gradually in 2010–2013.

Despite the market’s relatively

poor affordability, retirees continue

to be attracted to Victoria and its

temperate climate. The 31 per cent

share of its population aged 55 or

more was the highest among this

report’s eight cities last year. This

cohort’s growth averaged 2.5 per

cent annually in 2003–2007, nearly

four times the total population’s

concurrent 0.64 per cent average.

Growth in the 55-plus crowd is

forecast to continue near 3 per cent

in 2009–2013, lifting empty nesters’

population share to 34 per cent by

2013.

Apartment resale volumes fell

25 per cent to 1,800 units last year, the

first reading below 2,000 units since

2003. Annualized fourth-quarter sales

were particularly weak, clocking in

below 1,300 units. Sales will fall

another 18 per cent this year before

rebounding in 2010. Nonetheless,

volumes are forecast to remain below

2,000 units until 2012.

Active listings, meantime, have

soared, with 2008’s 46 per cent

jump to a 1,200-unit average the

second outsized jump in the past

three years. Such competition will

deter vendors, cutting listings to

about 600 units in 2009, near the

630-unit annual average during the

decade to 2007. Further listings

dips are forecast for 2010, after

which stabilization will set in. The

2008 listings surge cut the sales-

to-active-listings ratio to 11.2 per

cent, the lowest since 2001 and

well into buyers’ market territory.

This contrasts markedly with sellers’

market readings near 24 per cent as

recently as mid-2007. The market

shift cut price growth to 4 per cent

in 2008, following five consecutive

annual hikes above 10 per cent.

Although falling listings will boost

Rising supply, easing demand, and weak price growth now permeate

Victoria’s condominium markets following several strong years. Soft

pricing will improve affordability in 2010 and 2011, initiating a recovery

that will boost condominium starts and return resale prices to near

their 2008 peak.

Victoria


0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f


Starts as a per cent of multiple starts (right

0102030405060708090



1989 2001 2013f0

5

10

15

20

25

15–24 25–39 40–45 55–74 75+



the sales-to-listing ratio in 2009,

this will not prevent a 9.5 per cent

median price drop. A return to sellers’

market conditions in 2010 is fore-

cast first to stabilize and then to lift

prices, but not to 2008’s peak.

The forecast 2009 price dip will

combine with ongoing increases in

average household incomes to ame-

liorate Victoria’s relatively weak

affordability. On average, principle

and interest payments on a local

apartment condominium consumed

23 per cent of household income in

2008, second only to Vancouver

among our eight cities. This ratio

will decline to 18.6 per cent in

2009 and 2010, then hover between

20 and 21 per cent over the following

three years.


2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Starts 1,439 1,413 928 826 844 884 910 93068.1 –1.8 –34.3 –11.0 2.1 4.7 3.0 2.2

Under construction 1,495 2,119 2,317 1,463 1,100 944 858 80826.6 41.7 9.4 –36.8 –24.8 –14.2 –9.1 –5.8

Completions 914 909 1,019 901 881 847 813 77832.8 –0.5 12.1 –11.6 –2.2 –3.9 –4.0 –4.3

Complete and not absorbed 21 52 181 296 258 221 205 195–36.2 151.8 245.5 63.9 –12.9 –14.2 –7.3 –4.7

Absorptions 895 864 838 877 930 872 825 78729.7 –3.5 –3.0 4.6 6.1 –6.2 –5.4 –4.7

Months’ supply 0.3 0.7 2.6 4.1 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0



2006 2007 2008 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f

Unit sales 2,176 2,408 1,801 1,485 1,757 1,806 2,014 2,309–5.7 10.7 –25.2 –17.5 18.3 2.8 11.5 14.7

Active listings 758 823 1,200 604 451 449 481 54976.5 8.5 45.9 –49.6 –25.3 –0.4 7.1 14.0


16.5 10.4 4.0 –9.5 0.9 2.6 2.9 3.3




51015202530

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000

1995 97 99 01 03 05 07 09f 11f 13f




0102030405060

-10-505101520

1994 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10f 12f




Housing starts—Refers to the

beginning of construction work on

a building, usually when the con-

crete has been poured for the entire

footing around the structure, or at an

equivalent stage where a basement

will not be part of the structure.

Multiple starts—The sum of semi-

detached starts, row starts, and

apartment and other non-single-

detached starts. These starts are

distributed among five tenures:

Homeownership, Rental, Condo-

minium, Co-op, and Other.

Under construction—Units started

but not completed.

Completions—Units where all the

proposed construction work has

been performed or, in some cases,

where 90 per cent of construction

work has been completed and the

structure is fit for occupancy.

Complete and not absorbed—

Newly completed units that remain

unoccupied.

Absorptions—Newly completed

units sold or rented. Units pre-sold

or pre-leased are not included until

the completion stage.

Months’ supply (new condos)—The number of months needed to

absorb units that are completed but

not absorbed.

Unit sales—The number of existing

condo apartments sold on the multiple

listing service (MLS).

Active listings—The number of

condo apartments for sale on the

MLS.

Sales-to-active-listings ratio—The

number of condo apartments sold

divided by the number of active

condo apartment listings.

Months’ supply (resale)—The

number of months needed to sell

the current supply of active listings,

based on an average of recent

months’ sales volumes.

Median resale price—The median

resale price is found by ranking all

the sales for resale condo apartments

in a particular city from lowest price

to highest price and picking the

middle sale.

Average resale price—The average

resale condo apartment price in a

particular city, although average

prices in Montréal and Québec City

include all condominium styles, not

just apartments. Data do not gener-

ally include figures for new construc-

tion sales.

Definitions and Concepts

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


Metropolitan areas with their component census subdivisions

Name Type

Québec CityBeaumont MunicipalityBoischatel MunicipalityChâteau-Richer CityFossambault-sur-le-Lac CityLac-Beauport MunicipalityLac-Delage CityLac-Saint-Joseph CityL’Ancienne-Lorette CityL’Ange-Gardien Parish (Municipality of)Lévis CityNotre-Dame-des-Anges Parish (Municipality of)Québec CitySaint-Augustin-de-Desmaures CitySainte-Brigitte-de-Laval MunicipalitySainte-Catherine-de-la-Jacques-Cartier CitySainte-Famille Parish (Municipality of)Sainte-Pétronille VillageSaint-François-de-l’Île-d’Orléans MunicipalitySaint-Gabriel-de-Valcartier MunicipalitySaint-Henri MunicipalitySaint-Jean-de-l’Île-d’Orléans MunicipalitySaint-Lambert-de-Lauzon Parish (Municipality of)Saint-Laurent-de-l’Île-d’Orléans MunicipalitySaint-Pierre-de-l’Île-d’Orléans MunicipalityShannon MunicipalityStoneham-et-Tewkesbury United Townships (Municipality of)Wendake Indian reserve

MMoonnttrrééaallBaie-d’Urfé CityBeaconsfield CityBeauharnois CityBeloeil CityBlainville CityBoisbriand CityBois-des-Filion CityBoucherCity CityBrossard CityCandiac CityCarignan CityChambly CityCharlemagne CityChâteauguay CityCoteau-du-Lac MunicipalityCôte-Saint-Luc CityDelson CityDeux-Montagnes CityDollard-des-Ormeaux CityDorval CitéGore Township (Municipality of)Hampstead CityHudson CityKahnawake Indian reserveKanesatake Indian settlementKirkland CityLa Prairie CityL’Assomption CityLaval CityLavaltrie CityL’Épiphanie Parish (Municipality of)L’Épiphanie CityLéry CityLes Cèdres MunicipalityLes Coteaux MunicipalityL’Île-Cadieux CityL’Île-Dorval CityL’Île-Perrot City

Name Type

Longueuil CityLorraine CityMascouche CityMcMaster City MunicipalityMercier CityMirabel CityMontréal CityMontréal-Est CityMontréal-Ouest CityMont-Royal CityMont-Saint-Hilaire CityNotre-Dame-de-l’Île-Perrot CityOka MunicipalityOtterburn Park CityPincourt CityPointe-Calumet MunicipalityPointe-Claire CityPointe-des-Cascades VillageRepentigny CityRichelieu CityRosemère CitySaint-Amable MunicipalitySaint-Basile-le-Grand CitySaint-Bruno-de-MontarCity CitySaint-Colomban Parish (Municipality of)Saint-Constant CitySainte-Anne-de-Bellevue CitySainte-Anne-des-Plaines CitySainte-Catherine CitySainte-Julie CitySainte-Marthe-sur-le-Lac CitySainte-Thérèse CitySaint-Eustache CitySaint-Isidore Parish (Municipality of)Saint-Jérôme CitySaint-Joseph-du-Lac MunicipalitySaint-Lambert CitySaint-Lazare CitySaint-Mathias-sur-Richelieu MunicipalitySaint-Mathieu MunicipalitySaint-Mathieu-de-Beloeil MunicipalitySaint-Philippe MunicipalitySaint-Placide MunicipalitySaint-Sulpice Parish (Municipality of)Saint-Zotique VillageSenneville VillageTerrasse-Vaudreuil MunicipalityTerrebonne CityVarennes CityVaudreuil-Dorion CityVaudreuil-sur-le-Lac VillageVerchères MunicipalityWestmount City

OttawaClarence-Rockland CityOttawa CityRussell Township

TorontoAjax TownAurora TownBradford West Gwillimbury TownBrampton CityCaledon TownChippewas of Georgina Island First Nation Indian reserveEast Gwillimbury TownGeorgina Town

Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2006


Name Type

Halton Hills TownKing TownshipMarkham TownMilton TownMississauga CityMono TownNew Tecumseth TownNewmarket TownOakville TownOrangeville TownPickering CityRichmond Hill TownToronto CityUxbridge TownshipVaughan CityWhitchurch-Stouffville Town

CalgaryAirdrie CityBeiseker VillageCalgary CityChestermere TownCochrane TownCrossfield TownIrricana VillageRocky View No. 44 Municipal districtTsuu T’ina Nation 145 (Sarcee 145) Indian reserve

EdmontonAlexander 134 Indian reserveBeaumont TownBetula Beach Summer villageBon Accord TownBruderheim TownCalmar TownDevon TownEdmonton CityFort Saskatchewan CityGibbons TownGolden Days Summer villageItaska Beach Summer villageKapasiwin Summer villageLakeview Summer villageLeduc CityLeduc County County (municipality)Legal TownMorinville TownNew Sarepta VillageParkland County County (municipality)Point Alison Summer villageRedwater TownSeba Beach Summer villageSpring Lake VillageSpruce Grove CitySt. Albert CityStony Plain TownStony Plain 135 Indian reserveStrathcona County Specialized municipalitySturgeon County Municipal districtSundance Beach Summer villageThorsby VillageWabamun VillageWabamun 133A Indian reserveWabamun 133B Indian reserveWarburg Village

Name Type

VancouverAnmore VillageBarnston Island 3 Indian reserveBelcarra VillageBowen Island Island municipalityBurnaby CityBurrard Inlet 3 Indian reserveCapilano 5 Indian reserveCoquitlam CityCoquitlam 1 Indian reserveCoquitlam 2 Indian reserveDelta District municipalityGreater Vancouver A Regional district electoral areaKatzie 1 Indian reserveKatzie 2 Indian reserveLangley CityLangley District municipalityLangley 5 Indian reserveLions Bay VillageMaple Ridge District municipalityMatsqui 4 Indian reserveMcMillan Island 6 Indian reserveMission 1 Indian reserveMusqueam 2 Indian reserveMusqueam 4 Indian reserveNew Westminster CityNorth Vancouver CityNorth Vancouver District municipalityPitt Meadows District municipalityPort Coquitlam CityPort Moody CityRichmond CitySemiahmoo Indian reserveSeymour Creek 2 Indian reserveSurrey CityTsawwassen Indian reserveVancouver CityWest Vancouver District municipalityWhite Rock CityWhonnock 1 Indian reserve

VictoriaBecher Bay 1 Indian reserveCapital H (Part 1) Regional district electoral areaCentral Saanich District municipalityCole Bay 3 Indian reserveColwood CityEast Saanich 2 Indian reserveEsquimalt District municipalityEsquimalt Indian reserveHighlands District municipalityLangford CityMetchosin District municipalityNew Songhees 1A Indian reserveNorth Saanich District municipalityOak Bay District municipalitySaanich District municipalitySidney TownSooke District municipalitySouth Saanich 1 Indian reserveT’Sou-ke 1 (Sooke 1) Indian reserveT’Sou-ke 2 (Sooke 2) Indian reserveUnion Bay 4 Indian reserveVictoria CityView Royal Town

Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2006

www.conferenceboard.ca

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Metropolitan Condo Outlook Spring 2009 - Genworth …...rise, with estimated hikes in 2008 ranging...

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