Migration, Climate Change and the Environment

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Angela SantucciAngela SantucciProject Officer Project Officer

International Organization for Migration (IOM)International Organization for Migration (IOM)

Cairo, 20 – 21 September 2010

Potential Effects of Climate ChangePotential Effects of Climate Change

“The gravest effects of climate change may be those on human migration.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1990

• Where do we stand now?– 20 million displaced by climate related natural disasters in 2008

• What about the future?– Most widely cited figure: 200 million environmental migrants by

2050

Links Between Environment and MigrationLinks Between Environment and Migration

• Both natural disasters and environmental degradation can induce migration

• Climate change is likely to exacerbate these events and processes

• Migration can affect the environment in places of destination & origin and along transit routes

• Economic, social and developmental factors complicate the interactions between migration and the environment

• Environmental migration is a multi-causal phenomenon

Migration as AdaptationMigration as Adaptation

• Migration can strengthen livelihoods through income diversification via remittances, the transfer of knowledge and skills and/or relocation

Migration is one possible adaptation strategy

Case Study: EgyptCase Study: Egypt

• Expected climate change impacts:– Sea-level rise– Water scarcity– Desertification

• Expected impacts on human mobility:– International mobility– Internal mobility (rural to urban)

North Coast and Nile DeltaNorth Coast and Nile Delta

• 60% of Egypt’s agriculture• Four million people• Vulnerable to sea rise and salination • Sediment starvation • Internal and international migration

Egypt: Land at Risk from Sea-level RiseEgypt: Land at Risk from Sea-level Rise

Egypt: Migration by GovernorateEgypt: Migration by Governorate

International Migration Aspirations among Egyptian Youth 15-29, by GovernorateInternational Migration Aspirations among Egyptian Youth 15-29, by Governorate

Egypt: Migration by GovernorateEgypt: Migration by Governorate

Internal Migration Experience among Egyptian Youth 18-29, by Destination GovernorateInternal Migration Experience among Egyptian Youth 18-29, by Destination Governorate

Pilot Project: Assessment and Strategy Development to Pilot Project: Assessment and Strategy Development to Respond to Sea-Level Rise and Human MobilityRespond to Sea-Level Rise and Human Mobility

• To better understand actual and potential impacts and consequences of sea-level rise on human mobility

– Creation of a technical working group of key stakeholders and inception workshop

– Rapid assessments conducted • To design and test practical pilot initiatives to help respond to sea-level rise

induced mobility– Pilot initiatives developed and implemented – Assessment of pilot initiatives to evaluate success

• To enhance awareness among key stakeholders of the inter-linkages between sea-level rise and human mobility

– Workshop for key stakeholders to disseminate findings and develop recommendations and follow up actions

– Final report based on assessment findings and implemented activities, including lessons learned and recommendations

Donor: IOM’s 1035 Funding Facility

The Way Forwards: IOM’s VisionThe Way Forwards: IOM’s Vision

• First - minimize forced migration and ensure protection and assistance where displacement is inevitable;

• Second - facilitate the role of migration as an adaptation strategy to climate change and seek to strengthen the developmental benefits of such migration for areas of origin;

• Third - plan for relocation in areas that are expected to become uninhabitable to avoid a crisis situation and ensure sustainability;

• Fourth - bolster humanitarian action with adequate resources to meet the growing challenge of climate change;

• Fifth - mainstream environmental and climate change considerations into migration management policies and practice, and vice versa.

Thank youThank you