Mike_Nelson_Amplify 11

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THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNET IN TEN WORDS OR LESSIN TEN WORDS OR LESS

Michael R. NelsonVisiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown [email protected]

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Michael R. NelsonVisiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown UniversityTwitter: MikeNelson

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Michael R. NelsonResearch AssociateCSC Leading Edge [email protected]@LEADINGEDGEFORUM.COM

AMPlify June, 2011 Sydney

B.S., geology, Caltech Ph.D., geophysics, MIT 1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow 4 years as Senator Gore’s science advisor 4 years as IT policy guru at White House 1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC 9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008 Part of Obama campaign’s tech policy team

My Background


What’s Shaping the Internet E-government 2.0 Creating a Culture of Innovation How to Predict the Future(s)

My Classes


Talk about the IT trends 2011-2020 Talk about how to talk about these

trends Talk about their impact Give you some reading assignments

My Goals Today


ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker

The Most Important Thing I learned in Washington


In Washington, Words Matter

The right words can: Define an issue Kill a project Stir emotions Mobilize people

Examples: Obama: “Change” & “Hope” Strategic Defense Initiative > “Star Wars”


In Washington, Numbers Matter

It helps to have hundreds of pages of data




But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”




But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”

(preferably true)


A personal anecdote is worth a dozen policy papers—especially if other people (and the media) start repeating it.

In Washington, Stories Matter


First US Senate hearing on the Internet

The Internet was the NSFNET and regional academic network connected to it

A good connection: 1200 bits/secondBackbone of the NSFNET: 56,000

bits/second!

Looking back to 1988


>

A Demo for the Senators


>LO



>LOG



>LOGIN



>LOGIN>B



>LOGIN>BOY



>LOGIN>BOY, I



>LOGIN>BOY, IS



>LOGIN>BOY, IS TH



>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS



>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS S



>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS SLO



>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS SLOW!



>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS SLOW!



We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty

So What’s Next?



Maybe TWICE as much

So What’s Next?



Maybe TWICE as much

PROVIDED we don’t screw things up!!

So What’s Next?


VISION

First Word


"Where there is no vision, the people perish”

Proverbs 29:18

Words from the Bible


"Where there is no vision, the people perish”

Proverbs 29:18

(Or at least you waste a lot of time and money.)

Words from the Bible


VISION as Elevator Pitch

We are entering the third phase of the Internet As profound as the World Wide Web The next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation

Internet

Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation

The Internet revolution is less than 20% complete Number of users Total bandwidth Total amount of content Number of devices Number of applications


CLOUD

Second Word


Examples of Cloud Computing

Academic grids as a prototype of the cloudAmazon, Google, Microsoft building huge data

centers and offering online appsHotmailOffice 365Flickr, YouTubeOnline back-upSalesForce.comAkamai delivers 15-20 percent of Internet traffic BOINC grids more powerful than

supercomputers


“Innovate with impunity” – Business Week

“There’s no penalty for guessing wrong.” (Tony Scott, CIO, Microsoft)

Hypercompetition because SMEs have tools

“Ready, fire, aim.” “Prototype, prototype, prototype” Think big, start fast, and scale up

What the Cloud means to you


Cloud Computing

Why it matters:This is the 3rd phase of the InternetThis is the 3rd phase of COMPUTING

The Third Phase of the Internet

1969 1980 1990 2000 2010

Capability

Phase 1 - Communicating

Phase 2 - Content

Phase 3

Collaboration

?


“The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr


MANY-TO-MANY

Third Word


Phase One – Stand Alone Computer

App. Data


Phase Two – The Web

Web sites

DataApp.

Browser

PC

DataData

Data

Data


Phase Three – The Cloud

DataData Data

DataApp.

App. App.


THINGS

Fourth Word


The Internet of Things

Why it matters:100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion

PCs

Impacts?Increased need for ubiquitous wirelessA flood of new data from sensors, etc.New uses for the Cloud


The Cloud + The Internet of Things

DataData Data

DataApp.

App. App.



DataData Data

DataApp.

App. App.



DataData Data

DataApp.

App. App.


EXAFLOOD

Fifth word


Estimating the Exaflood(Swanson and Gilder, 2008)


What’s in the Exaflood?


The Promise and Peril of Big Data (2010)

Aspen Institute Communications and Society Program

Dealing with BIG DATA


Dealing with YOUR data

Gordon Bell, Microsoft

MyLifeBits

Lifetime digital diary



TRANSPARENCY

Sixth Word


Confidentiality, Privacy, and Transparency in the Age of WikileaksImperative for Transparency

Open government Innovation ecosystems Increasing buzz; Fostering trust Recruiting, Retention, and Morale Leveraging your data > new services

Ongoing LEF Research


Your organization needs a TRANSPARENCY POLICY

More than a Privacy Policy


Security + Transparency


CONSUMERIZATION

Seventh Word


From Consumerization to the Cloud – the accelerating rate of IT change

By Doug Neal 30 November 2009

Consumerization of the Workplace


Your employees want to use the best tools Facebook LinkedIn Hotmail

They’re work life and family life are merging Calendars Instant messaging Video, Skype

They want reliability, portability, the Cloud

Consumerization of the Workplace


PEOPLE

Eighth Word

•Hardware

•Hardware

•Hardware

•Hardware

•Hardware•Software

•Hardware•Software•People

•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People

•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People

.

•Software•Organizations •People

•Software•Organizations •People

•Organizations •People


New modes of teaming Need “double-deep” employees New communications skills

Implications


The Future of Work: What It Means for Individuals, Businesses, Markets and GovernmentsBy David BollierMarch 10, 2011

Required Reading


COMMUNITY

Ninth Word



Love (or Lust) Fear Envy Distraction Anxiety

Emotions online


Communication Content Collaboration Community > Commitment

Killer Apps of the Net


Required Reading


PREDICTIONS

Tenth Word


Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud”

BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1


Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud”

(But it might take 10 years)



Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors could be connected to the Net



Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net

(But it might take 10 years)

Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2


Technical Agreement and adoption of key standards

IPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards

Business practices Cooperation around open standards vs.

proprietary lock-in; open source software Culture

Users have to learn to “trust the cloud” CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new

roles Policy

Why Not?


POLICY

One Last Word

•Organizations •People•Policy •Hardware•Software


Privacy Search warrants, wiretapping in the

Cloud? Transparency Online copyright Liability for cloud service providers

Who’s responsible for Illegal activities? International data flows Competition policy

Updating policies for the Cloud


If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everywhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing

We Have 3 or 4 Years


If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everywhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing

If we blow it: Internet becomes Cable TV Innovation shuts down

We Have 3 or 4 Years


Conclusions

The Internet Revolution is less than 20% complete

The Internet Revolution will be as disruptive as the printing press, but: Much faster Totally global More unpredictable

When in doubt, empower the user!

Back-up slidesBack-up slides


Will my provider be here tomorrow? Next year?

Is redundancy built in? Are my networks reliable enough? Will I need to retrain my employees? Do I need to retrain my IT team? What stays on the laptop?

Questions to ask about Cloud


A Workbook for Cloud Computing in the EnterpriseBy Doug Neal18 January 2010

LEF Guide to the Cloud

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