© OECD/IEA 2013
Cédric Philibert on behalf of Jean-François Gagne Energy Technology Policy Division Head International Energy Agency
Mitigation Potential of Urban Sustainable Low-Carbon Transport
COP 20 side-event, 4th December, Lima, Peru
Mitigation potential in transport
© OECD/IEA 2014
A transformation is needed…
Achieving the 2DS will require contributions from all sectors and application of a portfolio of technologies.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Energy consumption in transport
Transport is the end-use with the least diversification
© OECD/IEA 2014
Most energy consumption (and growing) is for cars
When looking at activity, collective transport modes (higher average loads) gain importance
Passenger transport: development to date Activity (left) and energy use (right)
Sources: IEA energy balances
and IEA Mobility Model _____________________________________________________
* Aviation (only allocated to
passenger transport activity)
includes international bunkers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EJ
Aviation*
Rail passenger
Buses
Passenger cars
2-3 wheelers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Non-OECD share
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
bil
lio
n p
km
Aviation*
Rail
Buses
Passenger cars
2-3 wheelers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
non-OECD share
© OECD/IEA 2014
Freight transport: development to date Activity (left) and energy use (right)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
bill
ion
tkm Navigation*
Rail
Trucks
LCVs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EJ
Pipelines
Navigation*
Rail freight
Trucks
LCVs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Non-OECD share
0%
Non-OECD share
Road takes the lion’s share of energy use also for freight Trucking experiences the fastest growth LCVs (energy intensive) have larger growth potential in non-OECD
When looking at activity shipping outweighs all other modes rail becomes comparable to road, but only highly used in a few countries: United States
(26%), China (26%), Russia (20%), India (6%)
Sources: IEA Mobility Model, UNCTAD
Review of Maritime Transport, UIC rail
transport database, IEA energy balances _____________________________________________________
* Includes international bunkers
© OECD/IEA 2014
Perspectives for 2050 CO2 emissions in transport
Source: IEA ETP
6DS
& 2DS-ET
‘Avoid’ and ‘shift’ contribute, but ‘improve’ remains decisive to reach 2DS objectives
© OECD/IEA 2014
Improve: Technology still has a big potential
All modes can significantly decrease their carbon intensity
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
2012
4DS
2DS
2012
4DS
2DS
2012
4DS
2DS
2012
4DS
2DS
2012
4DS
2DS2
-3W
hee
lers
Ligh
tve
hic
les
Bu
ses
Rai
lA
ir
GHG intensity (kg CO2/pkm)
© OECD/IEA 2014
Improving fuel economy is cost effective
Potential cumulative savings over the life time of vehicles: USD 35 trillion (2010 – 2050)
© OECD/IEA 2014 Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020
(2DS)
2025
(2DS)
Billion
litres
Biodiesel (advanced)
Ethanol (advanced)
Biodiesel (conventional)
Ethanol (conventional)
Biofuels share in total
transport (energy content)
Transition to advanced biofuels for transport threatened by policy uncertainty
Conventional biofuel production continues to grow, and will provide 4% of road transport fuel demand in 2020
First commercial-scale advanced biofuel plants coming on line Without adoption of long-term policy framework, advanced biofuels sector
faces grim future
Projected biofuel production versus targets in IEA 2°C Scenario (2DS)
Historical Projection Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2014
Potential and maturity of electrification
© OECD/IEA 2014
Electric, PHEV and FCEVs together could account for nearly three-quarters of new vehicle sales in 2050.
Source: ETP 2014
Fuels switching can support energy policy goals
Global portfolio of technologies for passenger LDVs
© OECD/IEA 2014
More than USD 60 trillion saved over the next 4 decades by saving fuel, and also reducing vehicle and
infrastructure spending
A low carbon future could save money
© OECD/IEA 2014
Driving change through infrastructure
Road Rail
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mil
lio
n p
ave
d la
ne
-km
Other Africa Latin America ASEAN IndiaChina OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 4DS
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Th
ousa
nd t
rack
-km
Avoid/Shift policies can reduce net infrastructure needs, resulting in potential cumulative savings of
USD 20 trillion (2010 – 2050)
© OECD/IEA 2014
Future challenges: addressing urban mobility and energy needs
www.iea.org/tale-of-renewed-cities
Common city contexts representation
ETP 2016 : Identify synergies between global and municipal challenges and opportunities to make cities more efficient,
secure and healthier places to live
© OECD/IEA 2014
Centralised fuel production,power and storage
Renewable energy resources
EV
Co-generation
Smart energysystem control
Distributedenergy resources
Surplus heat
H vehicle2
Systems thinking and integration
A sustainable energy system is smarter than today’s, multidirectional and integrated - requiring long-term
planning for services delivery
