Geneva, 5-7 March 2008

Mobility and Climate ChangeAndreas Schäfer

University of Cambridge

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2Structural Change in the Economy …

Sector shifts due to:1. Different income elasticities for goods and services produced by each of the three sectors2. Competitive advantage for each of the sector’s industries3. Changing needs of society

11 World-Regional Data series: 1971 - 1998

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3… and in the Energy System

0

10

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50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Sha

re in

Fin

al E

nerg

y, %

Residential

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Sha

re in

Fin

al E

nerg

y, %

Agriculture

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Sha

re in

Fin

al E

nerg

y, %

Industry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

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80

90

100

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Sha

re in

Fin

al E

nerg

y, %

Services

Transportation

Others

Source: Schäfer A., 2005, Structural Change in Energy Use, Energy Policy, 33(4): 429-437.

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4Determinants of GHG Emissions

o Identity of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GGE):

GGE = GGE/E * E/PKT * PKT

PKT: Passenger-km TraveledE/PKT: Energy IntensityGGE/E: GHG Intensity of Fuel

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5Travel Time Budget

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Trav

el T

ime

Bud

egt,

h/ca

p/d

African Villages in:I Tanzania, 1986II Ghana, 1988

City Surveys: 1 Tianjin (China), 1993 2 Kazanlik (Bulgaria), 1965/66 3 Lima-Callao (Peru), 1965/66 4 Pskov (Former USSR), 1965/66 5 Maribor (Former Yugoslavia), 1965/66 6 Kragujevac (F. Yugoslavia), 1965/66 7 Torun (Poland), 1965/66 8 Gyoer (Hungary), 1965/66 9 Olomouc (Former CSFR), 1965/6610 Hoyerswerde (Former GDR), 1965/6611 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 198712 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 197713 Warsaw (Poland), 199314 6 Cities (France), 1965/6615 Osnabruck (Germany), 1965/6616 44 Cities (USA), 1965/6617 Jackson (USA), 1965/6618 Paris (France), 1976

I II

19 Paris (France), 198320 Paris (France), 199121 Sendai (Japan), 197222 Sapporo (Japan), 197223 Kanazawa (Japan), 197424 Kagoshima (Japan), 197425 Kumamoto (Japan), 197326 Hamamatsu (Japan), 197527 Fukui (Japan), 197728 Niigata (Japan), 197829 Hiroshima (Japan), 197830 Osaka (Japan), 198031 Tokyo (Japan), 198032 Osaka (Japan), 198533 Tokyo (Japan), 198534 Cities No. 21-29 in 198735 Tokyo (Japan), 199036 Osaka (Japan), 1990

National Travel Surveys:A Belgium, 1965/66B Austria, 1983C Great Britain, 1985/86D Germany, 1976E Netherlands, 1979F Great Britain, 1989/91G Finland, 1986H Netherlands, 1987I France, 1984J Germany, 1982K Netherlands, 1989L USA, 1990M Germany, 1989N Switzerland, 1984O Switzerland, 1989P Australia, 1986Q Singapore, 1991R Norway, 1985S Norway, 1992T Japan, 1987

2

1

3 4

57

89 10 14 15

161712

11

136

18 19 20

22 23

2425

26 2728

2930

31

3233

35

36A34

B

C

D

E F

GH

I

J K L

M

N

OP

Q

R ST

21

Source: Schäfer A. and D.G. Victor (2000) The Future Mobility of the World Population, Transportation Research A, 34(3): 171-205

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6Travel Time Budget: Stability

Data source: Szalai et al.(1972), data from 11 countries, pop. between 18 and 65 years of age.

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3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5Daily Working Time, h/cap/d

Tim

e de

dica

ted

to m

ajor

Act

iviti

es, h

/cap

/d

Sleep ( )

Eating ( )

Homemaking and childcare ( )

Leisure incl. study, participation, etc. ( )

Personal care ( )

Travel ( )

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7Travel Money Budget

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25

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Motorization Rate, LDV/1000 Capita

Sha

re o

f GD

P d

edic

ated

to T

rave

l, %

U.S.: 1909-2001

Western Europe: 1963-2003

Eastern Europe: 2000-2002Japan: 1963-2003

Turkey: 1994

Sth. Africa: 2000

Sri Lanka: 2002

Individual Eastern European countries

Individual Western European countries

Mexico: 2000

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8Global Mobility Trends

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

GDP/cap, US$(1996)

PKT/

cap

Centrally Planned AsiaLatin AmericaM. East, Nth&Sth AfricaOther Pacific AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

North AmericaPacific OECDWestern EuropeEastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union

South Asia

World

Data Range: 1950-2000

Source: A. Schäfer, Global Passenger Mobility Data Set, Version 1.0, University of Cambridge, Sept. 2005

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9Declining Share of Public Transport

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100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

PKT/cap

Shar

e of

Pub

lic T

rans

port

Mod

es in

PK

T

Centrally Planned AsiaLatin AmericaM. East, Nth&Sth AfricaOther Pacific AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

North AmericaPacific OECDWestern EuropeEastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union

South Asia

Data Range: 1950-2000

Source: A. Schäfer, Global Passenger Mobility Data Set, Version 1.0, University of Cambridge, Sept. 2005

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10Changing relative Importance of the Automobile

0.0

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1.0

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000PKT/cap

Shar

e of

Lig

ht D

uty

Vehi

cles

in P

KT

Centrally Planned AsiaLatin AmericaM. East, Nth&Sth AfricaOther Pacific AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

North AmericaPacific OECDWestern EuropeEastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union

South Asia

Data Range: 1950-2000

Source: A. Schäfer, Global Passenger Mobility Data Set, Version 1.0, University of Cambridge, Sept. 2005

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11The Rise of High-Speed Transportation

0.0

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1.0

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

PKT/cap

Sha

re o

f Hig

h-S

peed

Mod

es in

PK

T

Centrally Planned AsiaLatin AmericaM. East, Nth&Sth AfricaOther Pacific AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

North AmericaPacific OECDWestern EuropeEastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union

South Asia

Source: A. Schäfer, Global Passenger Mobility Data Set, Version 1.0, University of Cambridge, Sept. 2005

Data Range: 1950-2000

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12Evolution of Travel Demand: Past, Present, Future

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

From left to right:North AmericaWestern EuropePacific OECDLatin AmericaMiddle East & N/S AfricaEastern EuropeFormer Soviet UnionOther Pacific AsiaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaCentrally Planned Asia

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

High-Speed Transport (Aircraft & High-Speed Rail)

Low-Speed Public Transport Modes

Light-Duty Vehicles

From left to right:North AmericaWestern EuropePacific OECDOther Pacific AsiaMiddle East & N/S AfricaLatin AmericaEastern EuropeFormer Soviet UnionSouth AsiaCentrally Planned AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

From left to right:North AmericaWestern EuropePacific OECDEastern EuropeOther Pacific AsiaLatin AmericaFormer Soviet UnionMiddle East & N/S AfricaCentrally Planned AsiaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Population (million)0 987654321 10

Population (million)0 987654321 10

Population (million)0 987654321 10

PKT/cap

PKT/cap

PKT/cap

1950 2000 2050 (?)

2050 travel demand > 3 X 2000 level at a roughly 3-fold GDP level

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13Determinants of GHG Emissions: E/PKT (1)

o Historical trend: initially increasing, then leveling off at roughly 2 MJ/pkm due to

• Increasing forces: shift toward faster and more energy-intensive modes; shift toward larger and more powerful automobiles; declining automobile occupancy rates; etc.

• Mitigating forces: strong fuel-efficiency improvements and increasing passenger load factors of aircraft; fuel efficiency improvements of light-duty vehicles within each size class

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14Determinants of GHG Emissions: E/PKT (2)

o Opportunities for reduction: significant (30-50%) over the next 20 years at current performance levels• Automobile/aircraft engines, others• Vehicle driving/flight resistances

o Challenges:• Extra costs of fuel-saving technology,

consumer preferences, etc.• Thus policies required to push fuel-

saving technologies into the market

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15Determinants of GHG Emissions: GGE/E

o Historical trend: roughly constant (.73 gCO2/MJ for petroleum-based fuels)

o Opportunities for reduction: potentially significant but long-term• Current vs. second generation biofuels• Hydrogen and electricity

o Challenges for alternative fuels:• Energy density, convenience, costs,

scale (amount and location of resources), environmental, etc.

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16World Passenger Mobility GHG Emissions

Projected low and high values differ by economic growth rate and thus PKT, mode share, and average E/PKT; and by the displacement of secondary bio-fuels for petroleum fuels. The travel demand under-lying the low projections corresponds to the 2050 projection on slide 12

0

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low high low high low high

Constant FuelConsumption

$50/bbl $100/bbl

1950 2000 2050G

HG

Em

issi

ons,

MtC

O2-

eq

Fuel&Vehicle CycleHigh-Speed TransportPublic TransportLight-Duty Vehicles

$50/bbl & 550ppm

Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 concentration at 550ppm: carbon tax in 2030: $30/t(CO2)

Prevailing 2050 auto-mobile technologies:$50/bbl: gasoline-fueled mech drivetrain vehicle with reduced driving resistances $100/bbl: diesel-fueled mech drivetrain vehicle with strongly reduced driving resistances $50/bbl + C-tax:gasoline-fueled mechdrivetrain vehicle with strongly reduced driving resistances

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17Some Conclusions

o Global travel demand likely to continue to grow strongly; demand growth coupled with a rising relative importance of faster modes

o Large opportunities exist for reducing GHG emissions; but they are more than offset by strong demand growth. Thus, world GHG emission will continue to grow even under stringent GHG mitigation policies

o Policies that focus on GHG mitigation cause technology to change but are unlikely to significantly impact growth in travel demand