Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive

Faculty and Researcher Publications Faculty and Researcher Publications

2012-07

Modeling and Evaluating Indigenous

Populations' Trust in Government

Fricker, Ronald D., Jr.

Contributed paper, with LCDR W. Kulzy: "Modeling and Evaluating Indigeneous Populations'

Trust in Government," 2nd International Conference on Cross-cultural Decision Making, San

Francisco, CA, July 2012.

http://hdl.handle.net/10945/38736

Modeling and Evaluating Indigenous Populations’

Trust in Government

LCDR W. W. Kulzy III Prof. Ronald D. Fricker, Jr.

LT Jon Negaard Dr. Adam Schilling

July 25, 2012

1

Objective

•  Assess whether “Modeling Essential Services, Security, Employment, and Economics” (MESSEE) useful/appropriate for modeling population’s trust in government

2

Gov't trust = f (Essential Services, Security, Employment, and Economics)

Methodology

3

2010 Raw Data Create Analytical Database

Derive Factors

Conduct Sensitivity Analyses

Fit MESSEE Models

Interpret Results, Make Conclusions

4

2010 Raw Data

• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3

Create Analytical Database

Derive Factors

Conduct Sensitivity Analyses

Fit MESSEE Models

Interpret Results, Make Conclusions

Methodology

5

2010 Raw Data

• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3

Create Analytical Database

Derive Factors

Conduct Sensitivity Analyses

Fit MESSEE Models

Interpret Results, Make Conclusions

Methodology

Create Analytical Database

•  Recode ordinal (Likert scale) responses •  Strongly positive to strongly negative à 2 to -2

•  Impute missing data •  Respondent’s data becomes unusable with one

missing response •  6% of responses are missing •  Casewise deletion: Delete respondent if missing any answer

ü Imputing 6% of the data saves 60% of the respondents!

•  Methodology: nearest neighbor hot-deck imputation

6

7

2010 Raw Data

• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3

Create Analytical Database

• Clean • Recode •  Impute

Derive Factors

Conduct Sensitivity Analyses

Fit MESSEE Models

Interpret Results, Make Conclusions

Methodology

•  A statistical method to derive unobserved (latent) variables from observed, correlated data –  Idea is combinations of survey questions represent

some complex construct not directly observable –  At the very least, a useful data reduction mechanism

•  Graphically:

A Bit About Factor Analysis

8

Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…

Country #2 Cont…

Country #3 Cont..

Gov

erna

nce

Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals

Secu

rity

Con

cern

s

External External External

Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy

Borders

Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers

Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism

Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty

Opi

nion

s of…

Non-Western countries West./non-Western country

West/non-Western cntry

Rel

igio

n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries

Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values

U.S

.

Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation

Tole

ranc

e

General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on

Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance

Daily life Daily life Daily Life

Chi

na

Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided

China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends

Infr

astr

uctu

re &

Ser

v

Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility

Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water

Roads Roads Current

Free

dom

s

Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West

Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national

The Final Factors

Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…

Country #2 Cont…

Country #3 Cont..

Gov

erna

nce

Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals

Secu

rity

Con

cern

s

External External External

Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy

Borders

Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers

Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism

Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty

Opi

nion

s of…

Non-Western countries West./non-Western country

West/non-Western cntry

Rel

igio

n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries

Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values

U.S

.

Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation

Tole

ranc

e

General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on

Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance

Daily life Daily life Daily Life

Chi

na

Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided

China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends

Infr

astr

uctu

re &

Ser

v

Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility

Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water

Roads Roads Current

Free

dom

s

Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West

Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national

The Final Factors

Infr

astr

uctu

re &

Ser

vice

s Country #1 Country #2 Country #3

Social & Essential Service

Social & Essential Service

Water

Roads Roads

Electricity Electricity

Current

Progress

Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…

Country #2 Cont…

Country #3 Cont..

Gov

erna

nce

Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals

Secu

rity

Con

cern

s

External External External

Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy

Borders

Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers

Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism

Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty

Opi

nion

s of…

Non-Western countries West./non-Western country

West/non-Western cntry

Rel

igio

n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries

Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values

U.S

.

Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation

Tole

ranc

e

General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on

Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance

Daily life Daily life Daily Life

Chi

na

Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided

China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends

Infr

astr

uctu

re &

Ser

v

Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility

Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water

Roads Roads Current

Free

dom

s

Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West

Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national

The Final Factors

12

2010 Raw Data

• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3

Create Analytical Database

• Clean • Recode •  Impute

Derive Factors • Determine number of

factors • Conduct factor analysis

and interpret results

Conduct Sensitivity Analyses

• Ensure factors not sensitive to recoding and imputation choices

Fit MESSEE Models • Determine appropriate

dependant variable to determine gov’t support

• Linear model

Interpret Results, Make Conclusions

Methodology

MESSEE Model Dependent Variable

13

Trust in Government

Agencies

Q49na- Trust at all in NATIONAL

ASSEMBLY

Q49pp- Trust at all in POLITICAL

PARTIES

Q49af- Trust at all in ARMED

FORCES

Q49cj- Trust at all in COURTS AND JUDGES

Q49lp- Trust at all in LOCAL

POLICE

Q49lg- Trust at all in LOCAL

GOVERNMENT

Country #1 Country #2 Country #3 Country #1 Cont…

Country #2 Cont…

Country #3 Cont..

Gov

erna

nce

Trust in policy makers Trust in policy makers Achieving Goals

Secu

rity

Con

cern

s

External External External

Trust in agencies Trust in agencies Trust in Gov’t and Democracy

Borders

Democracy Terrorism enablers Terrorism Enablers

Policy and law Policy and law Policy and Law Combat terrorism Combat Terrorism

Civic duty Civic duty Civic Duty

Opi

nion

s of…

Non-Western countries West./non-Western country

West/non-Western cntry

Rel

igio

n Sharia law Sharia law Sharia Law Western countries

Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Prosecute Intolerance Other country’s values Other country’s values Other country’s values

U.S

.

Help to nation Help to nation Help to nation

Tole

ranc

e

General trust General trust General trust Attacks on Attacks on Attacks on

Discussion of Discussion of Discussion of Local/national acceptance

Daily life Daily life Daily Life

Chi

na

Help to nation Help to nation Services Provided

China aid China aid Security Family and friends Family and friends Family and Friends

Infr

astr

uctu

re &

Ser

v

Social & essential services Social & essential services Civility Civility Civility

Use of Violence Use of Violence Use of Violence Water

Roads Roads Current

Free

dom

s

Religious freedom- West Religious freedom West Religious freedom West

Electricity Electricity Progress Local and national Local and national Local and national

Statistically Significant Factors for Country #1

15

2010 Raw Data

• ~140 questions • 3,770 obs for Country #1 • 1,661 obs for Country #2 • 1,481 obs for Country #3

Create Analytical Database

• Clean • Recode •  Impute

Derive Factors • Determine number of

factors • Conduct factor analysis

and interpret results

Conduct Sensitivity Analyses

• Ensure factors not sensitive to recoding and imputation choices

Fit MESSEE Models • Determine Appropriate

dependant variable to determine gov’t support

Interpret Results, Make Conclusions

Methodology

Conclusions

•  Factor analysis provides useful data reduction Ø 140 questions reduced to about 20 factors Ø Factors provide insight into each country’s culture and

customs

•  MESSEE model Ø MESSEE model attributes too limited and too rigid Ø Reasonable start, but can be improved upon

•  Broader models (not described here) give fits with

16

R2 ≈ 0.4