Modeling Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Wetlands: Understanding Potential Impacts and Their Implications for
Management on Cape Cod
Marc Carullo
Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management
Photo credit: Mike McHugh, MassDEP
C a p e C o a s t a l C o n f e r e n c eC a p e C o a s t a l C o n f e r e n c e
H y a n n i s R e s o r t a n d C o n f e r e n c e C e n t e rH y a n n i s R e s o r t a n d C o n f e r e n c e C e n t e r
D e c e m b e r 7 , 2 0 1 6D e c e m b e r 7 , 2 0 1 6
Four scenarios with estimates of SLR by 2100
Rick Meyerowitz, 2008. From Forecast by Nicholas Blechman.
Project Objectives
Understand potential for coastal
wetland habitat conversion/loss
under multiple scenarios of SLR
Identify and assess
opportunities for and barriers to
marsh migration
Engage stakeholders to better incorporate wetlands
into adaptation strategies and planning efforts
Four scenarios with estimates of SLR by 2100 United States National Climate Assessment (Parris et al. 2012), adjusted for local subsidence
Projected Scenario Total Sea Level Rise (Boston)
Lowest 0.249 m (0.82 feet)
Intermediate Low 0.706 m (2.32 feet)
Intermediate High 1.385 m (4.54 feet)
Highest 2.164 m (7.10 feet)
2011 2030 2050 2070 2100
Project TimescaleProject Timescale
SeaSea--Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)
Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM)*Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM)*
M o d e l s u s e dM o d e l s u s e d :
Cape CodCape Cod SLAMM Project Panels
Cape CodCape Cod SLAMM Project Panels
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
An
nu
al C
han
ge in
Are
a (H
a)
Average annual change in area by decade* from
2011-2100 for Cape Cod project panels.
D R A F TD R A F T
Macrotidal areas*
Microtidal areas*
2011 2100
Dry
Land
Open
Ocean
Estuarine
Open Water
Regularly-
Flooded
Marsh
Irregularly-Fl
ooded
Marsh
Transitional
Marsh
Time Period (Decade) for Select SLAMM Classes
Potential Salt Marsh Trends from 2011-2100
Cape Cod | Intermediate High SLR Scenario
• > 3500 ha increase in reg-flooded marsh
(low marsh zone), 225% ↑
• > 5500 ha decrease in irreg-flooded marsh
(high marsh zone), 87% ↓
• Total loss of approximately 2000 ha of salt
marsh, 25% ↓
• Marshes draining to Vineyard and Nantucket
Sounds are potentially more susceptible to
loss from SLR than those draining to Cape
Cod Bay (i.e., tidal range sensitivity). 100 Years of Estuarine Marsh Trends in
Massachusetts (1893 to 1995)
Potential Upland Marsh Migration w/in 100 ft Buffer South Shore | 2030-2100 Intermediate High SLR Scenario
0
200
400
600
800
Low Int Low Int High High
Are
a (H
ect
are
s)
SLR Scenario
Migration Area (MA) MA w/in Buffer
North River, Marshfield D R A F TD R A F T
Upland Marsh Migration South Shore | 2030-2100
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
High
Int High
Int Low
Low
SLR
Sce
nar
ios Forest
Agricultural
Golf Course
Residential
Other*
103
177
425
772
Total A
rea (h
a)
Land Use / Land Cover Distribution of Potential Migration Areas
D R A F TD R A F T
Westport River - East
Buzzards Bay West Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
21002100 Marsh Migration
Potential *For illustrative purposes only
21002100
12 m
-2 m
5 m
Lidar DEM
2100
2011
Marsh-Upland Border
D R A F TD R A F T
Westport River - East
Buzzards Bay West Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
Select SLAMM Classes
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Tidal Flat
Marsh Migration
Potential *For illustrative purposes only
21002100
D R A F TD R A F T
C OA S TA L S Q U E E Z E
Cape CodCape Cod SLAMM Project Panels
Chase Garden
Creek
20112011
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Chase Garden Creek
Dennis Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
20302030
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Chase Garden Creek
Dennis Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
20502050
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Chase Garden Creek
Dennis Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
20702070
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Chase Garden Creek
Dennis Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
21002100
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Chase Garden Creek
Dennis Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
21002100
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Marsh Migration
Potential Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
2100
2011
Marsh-Upland Border
21002100
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Marsh Migration
Potential Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
2100
2011
Marsh-Upland Border
D R A F TD R A F T
Impervious Surface
Marsh Migration
Potential Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
2100
2011
Marsh-Upland Border
10 m
-0.5 m
5 m
Lidar DEM
Cape CodCape Cod SLAMM Project Panels
Nauset Marsh
20112011
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Nauset Marsh
Eastham Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
20302030
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Nauset Marsh
Eastham Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
20502050
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Nauset Marsh
Eastham Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
20702070
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Nauset Marsh
Eastham Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
21002100
D R A F TD R A F T
Select SLAMM Classes
Upland
Trans. Marsh/Scrub-Shrub
Regularly-Flooded Marsh
Irregularly-Flooded Marsh
Non-tidal Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
Tidal Swamp
Impervious Surface
Nauset Marsh
Eastham Intermediate High SLR
Static accretion
Potential Wetland Distribution by 2100 Under Four SLR Scenarios Parkers River, Yarmouth
Low ~ 0.8 ft Int Low ~ 2.3 ft Int High ~ 4.5 ft High ~ 7.1 ft
D R A F TD R A F T
Antic ipated Outcomes
• Out reach & Educa t ion
• Po l i cy
• Land Conserva t ion &
Management
• Res to ra t ion
• Spec ies Conserva t ion
• Blue Carbon Accoun t ing
Antic ipated Outcomes
• Out reach & Educa t ion
• Po l i cy
• Land Conserva t ion &
Management
• Res to ra t ion
• Spec ies Conserva t ion
• Blue Carbon Accoun t ing
Anticipated Outcomes
• Out reach & Educa t ion
• Po l i cy
• Land Conserva t ion &
Management
• Res to ra t ion
• Spec ies Conserva t ion
• Blue Carbon Accoun t ing
Anticipated Outcomes
• Out reach & Educa t ion
• Po l i cy
• Land Conserva t ion &
Management
• Res to ra t ion
• Spec ies Conserva t ion
• Blue Carbon Accoun t ing
Photo: Delaware DNREC
Anticipated Outcomes
• Out reach & Educa t ion
• Po l i cy
• Land Conserva t ion &
Management
• Res to ra t ion
• Spec ies Conserva t ion
• Blue Carbon Accoun t ing
Illustration:
Mass Audubon
Photo: David Johnson
Anticipated Outcomes
• Out reach & Educa t ion
• Po l i cy
• Land Conserva t ion &
Management
• Res to ra t ion
• Spec ies Conserva t ion
• Blue Carbon Accoun t ing
Illustration:
The Blue Carbon Initiative’s Coastal Blue Carbon
Next Steps
• Project website
– Final SLAMM report
– Overview and highlights
– Additional data analyses and summaries
• Esri Story Map and MORIS web tools
• Stakeholder meetings
• Long-term monitoring projects
– Remote sensing and field-based
<insert pic of CZM wetlands landing page, example Esri Story Map, etc.
Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. –– SLAMM 6.2SLAMM 6.2
James Morris, University of South Carolina James Morris, University of South Carolina –– MEM 5.4.1MEM 5.4.1
FundingFunding
U.S. EPA Region 1U.S. EPA Region 1
NOAA Office for Coastal ManagementNOAA Office for Coastal Management
Project TeamProject Team
MA CZMMA CZM
MA DFG MA DFG -- Division of Ecological Restoration Division of Ecological Restoration
(MA DER)(MA DER)
Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL)Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL)
Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term
Research (PIE LTER) ProjectResearch (PIE LTER) Project
MassDEPMassDEP
Woods Hole GroupWoods Hole Group
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Data Contributors Data Contributors
MBL/PIE LTERMBL/PIE LTER
USFWS USFWS –– Parker River NWRParker River NWR
NPS NPS –– Cape Cod NSCape Cod NS
MassDOTMassDOT
MA DERMA DER
WaquoitWaquoit Bay NERRBay NERR
NOAA (CONOAA (CO--OPS)OPS)
Woods Hole GroupWoods Hole Group
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina
Jim MorrisJim Morris
[email protected]@state.ma.us
