Module 2_Hydromet Hazards 4

7/29/2019 Module 2_Hydromet Hazards 4

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SUSAN R. ESPINUEVA

HYDRO-METEOROLOGY DIVISION,

PAGASA, DOST

Department of Science and Techno logy

Phi l ippine Atmospher ic, Geophysical and A stronomical Services Administ rat ion

Hazard 102:Hydro-meteorological Hazards (Part 4)

Flood forecasting & warning system

Training on Trainers on DRR/CCA for Local Partners8 January 2013, Tagaytay City

Project on Enabling Cities in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope

with Climate Change (Project Climate Twin Phoenix)
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.nidm.net/images/flood6.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.nidm.net/flood5_ii.asp&h=317&w=498&sz=16&tbnid=xQsMwHR6MnYJ::&tbnh=83&tbnw=130&prev=/images?q=flood+disaster+pics&usg=__OxfdyzuXcEc7in4yM2hADUqjZi8=&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=2&ct=image&cd=1http://h/wiki/New_Orleans


2/28

Flood forecasting and warning

Flood Forecasting and

Warning is giving advance

notice that a flood is

imminent or is in progress

at a certain location or in a

certain river basin.

- Accuracy

- Timeliness

Flood Forecast ing and warning

can on ly be don e if a r iversystem or watershed is

equipped w ith a moni tor ing

facil it ies , i.e. rainfall and water

level monito r ing faci l i t ies and a

good commun icat ion system.

Network of rainfall & water level stations

for flood forecasting & warning system in

the Pampanga river basin


3/28

Definition of flood/flooding/inundation

Overflowing by water of the normal confines of a stream or

body of water, or accumulation of water by drainage over

areas which are not normally submerged.


4/28

Objectives of flood forecasting & warning system

- to forewarn the people living in the low-lying

areas of the increase in water level of the riverand the expected flood situation;

- to forewarn people living in the target area of

the dam on the present and expected flood

situation; and

- to alert the agencies concerned with flood

control and /or flood fighting activities in the

event of the occurrence of flood.


5/28

Network of existing PAGASA hydrological stations

Monitored telemetered

major river basins (5)

18 Major river basins

Monitored telemetered

major reservoirs


6/28

1. Telemetered of fully automatic system

Facilities of a

TelemeteredFlood

Forecasting

and Warning

System

(FFWS)

Water Level

Station

Flood Forecasting and Warning Center

Control

Station

Field

Center

Rainfall Supervisory

Rainfall Station

Patrol

Car

Relay Station

Water Level

Supervisory

Warning

Station


7/28

Existing telemetered gauging stations

River basin / dam RR WL Date

1. Pampanga river basin 17 10 1973

2. Agno river basin 12 9 19833. Bicol river basin 11 7 1983

4. Cagayan river basin 5 5 1983

5. Pasig-Marikina-Laguna lake

EFCOS (MMDA)

KOICA (PAGASA)

ASTI (DOST)

7

17

11

16 1993

6. Angat dam 4 2 1986

5. Pantabangan dam 5 1 1986

6. Binga/Ambuklao dam 6 2 19927. San Roque dam 3 2 2003

8. Magat dam 6 2 1992

9. Ipo/La Mesa dam 2 2


8/28

Generation of hydrologic (flood) forecasts

How are

hydrologic

(flood)forecasts

generated?


9/28

Inputs Forecast Model Outputs

Rainfall forecasts

from Numerical

Weather Predictionmodels

Satellite data

Rainfall observation

Observed water

level /discharge

Hourly hydrographs

Inundation map

Rainfall estimates

from radar


10/28

Flood information issued by PAGASA

River basin Flood information Time of issuance

Telemetered

major river

basins (PABC)

Flood bulletins

Hydrological

forecasts

5AM & 5PM,

intermediate bulletins

are issued at 11AM

and 11PM

Daily at 8AM

Telemetered(Angat,

Pantabangan,

San Roque &

Magat

Flood bulletinsFlood Warning

Information

Dam Updates

As the need arises

6:30AM (non-flood

season)Non-

telemetered

river basins

General Flood

Advisories (GFA)

5AM and 5PM


11/28

Flood forecasting & warning system for dam operation

Agencies involved in the FFWSDOproject implementation:

NPC /

NIA

PAGASA

DPWHNWRB

OCD

Dam authorities in their

respective areas of jurisdiction

National flood and warning

forecasting center

Monitoring agencies


12/28

FFWSDO Protocols

DAM

DISCHARGEWARNING

MANUAL

NPC/NIANPC/NIA

PAGASA

FLOOD

OPERATION

RULE

MANUAL

FLOODWARNING

MANUAL

Prescribes the

rules in managing

the inflow andoutflow of the

reservoir during

high flows.

Activities undertaken to

alert/warn people in the target

area of dams & concernedagencies on the expected flood

situation so that appropriate

countermeasures & emergency

actions can be taken to mitigate

flood damage.

Defines the activities

undertaken to

disseminate info to thepublic on the rising of

WL in the target river

due to the release of

water from the dam to

prevent damage to

inhabitants.


13/28

Standard Forms for FFWSDO

Form Type of Info FROM TO Tape#

1 Commencement of Preparatory Phase PAGASA Dam Office

2 Report on Commencement ofPreparatory Phase

Dam Office PAGASA

3 Commencement of Flood Warning

Phase

PAGASA Dam Office

4 Report on Commencement of Flood

Warning Phase

Dam Office PAGASA

5 Flood Bulletin & Request for

Dissemination

PAGASA Dam Office Tapes

A-L

6 Report on Completion of Dissemination Dam Office PAGASA

7 Request for Dissemination of Flood

Disaster Info

PAGASA Dam Office

8 Report on Completion of Dissemination Dam Office PAGASA

9

10

Termination of Flood Warning

Operation

Report on Completion of

Dissemination of Termination

PAGASA

Dam Office

Dam Office

PAGASA

Tape M


14/28

Flood forecasting & warning system for dam operation


15/28

Dissemination scheme for basin and dam flood bulletins


16/28

Background Information

In the Philippines, thereare 18 major river basins.

Before 2006, earlywarning system (EWS)on flood covered majorriver basins.

However, the PAGASAextended theestablishment of EWS inother river basins due tothe increasingoccurrence of floodingin the country.

CAGAYANABRA

AGNO

PAMPANGA

PASIG-MARIKINA-LAGUNA DE BAY

BICOL

PANAY

ILOG

HILABANGAN

JALAUR

TAGALOAN

CAGAYAN DE ORO

AGUS LAKE LANAO

MINDANAODAVAO

TAGUM -

LIBUGANON

BUAYAN --

MALANGUN

AGUSAN

ABULOG


17/28

Strategies in the establishment of CBFEWS


18/28

Institutions involved in CBFEWS

INSTITUTIONS:

1. Local Government Units(Province/City/Municipality)

2. PAGASA

3. Office of Civil Defense (OCD)

4. Department of Interior and LocalGovernment (DILG)

5. NGOs


19/28

Components/activities in the implementation of CBFEWS

1. Consultation meeting with LGUs

- Roles and responsibilities of stakeholders are explained;proposed network design is presented, etc.; counterpart

activities; MOAs, etc.

2. Site survey and ocular inspection

- check available communication system, etc., questionnaires;

MOA signing, etc

3. Installation of monitoring facilities, flood signages

& hydrographic surveys establish assessment levels;

4. On-site training of observers

5. Seminar on data observation/ retraining

6. Special IEC and flood drill/dry run

7. Turn over of CBFEWS to LGUs


20/28

Issuance of warnings will be based on:

Water Level Meaning Flood Warning

Level 1 1.1 m Awareness READY

Level 2 1.5 m Preparedness GET SET

Level 3 2.0 m Response GO

GO

12

31. Assessment

water levels

2. Threshold

values of

rainfall


21/28

Flood Warning ProtocolWarning Signal/ Info Water level at the

monitoring station

Meaning

1 bell or 1-second ofbrief siren for every 2

seconds for 30

seconds

Water level hasreached Level 1 READY

People aremadeaware of an

impending flood.

2 bells or two 1-

second siren for

every 2 seconds for

30 seconds

TheLevel 1reached

the Level 2 in30

minutes or less

GET SETPeople

are advised toprepare

for a possible flood.

Continuous ringing

of bells or siren for

20 to 30 seconds.

Water level at the

monitoring station

reachedLevel 3

GOPeople are

advised torespond/

evacuatefor an

expected flood.


22/28

Strategies of CBFEWS

PDCC RDCCFlood info

WarningPhase

1 - READYREADY2 - Get SET3 - GO

Weather

Update/Info

Data/Flood

Advisory/

Warning

Target

Community

DisasterOperation Center

(DOC)Municipal Hall

Communicationof Warning1 - MDCC2 BDCC3 Local

Volunteers

WeatherUpdate /Info

BatingawSitio/PurokLeadersWater Level

Observers

PAGASA- Field Station

RR Observers

Flood

Advisory

Data/Ra

infall

Obs

ervationWeather

Update/Info

Weath

er

Updat

e/Info

Bandillo

Megaphonew/sirenChurch Bells

RiverObservation1 Color2 Speed of Flow3- Sound4 Presence of

Debris

Data/R

ainfall

Obse

rvation

Legend: Information starts here in case of large-scalesystem (Ex. typhoon and monsoon).

Information starts here in case of local/small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm andITCZ).

EvacuationCenter

PDCC RDCCFlood info

WarningPhase

1 - READYREADY2 - Get SET3 - GO

Weather

Update/Info

Data/Flood

Advisory/

Warning

Target

Community

DisasterOperation Center

(DOC)Municipal Hall

Communicationof Warning1 - MDCC2 BDCC3 Local

Volunteers

WeatherUpdate /Info

BatingawSitio/PurokLeadersWater Level

Observers

PAGASA- Field Station

RR Observers

Flood

Advisory

Data/Ra

infall

Obs

ervationWeather

Update/Info

Weath

er

Updat

e/Info

Bandillo

Megaphonew/sirenChurch Bells

RiverObservation1 Color2 Speed of Flow3- Sound4 Presence of

Debris

Data/R

ainfall

Obse

rvation





EvacuationCenter


23/28

Existing FEWS in the Philippines

SURIGAO

provinces

LEYTE

provincesDUMANGAS,

Iloilo

BULACANprovince

ZAMBALES

province

Lagunaprovince

Telemetered orfully automatic

Manual &community based

Telemetered and

communitybased

Evolution of FFWS & FFWSDO in the PH


24/28

Evolution of FFWS & FFWSDO in the PH

EO 2011 Ipo telemetered FFWSDO - operational

2012 Caliraya FFWSDO will be operational

1983

Agno, Bicol

& Cagayan

River Basins

FFWS

Pampanga

River Basin

(PRB) FFWS

1973 1986 1993 2009 20112010-2012

Angat &Pantabangan

FFWSDO

1992

Binga /

Ambuklao

& Magat

FFWSDO

Pasig-

Marikina-

Laguna LakeEFCOS

(MMDA)

2003

San Roque

FFWSDO

Upgrading of

Pampanga

FFWS

Upgrading of

Agno FFWS /

Enhancement

of Pasig-

Marikina

JICA-TCP:

Upgrading of

FFWSDO

1978

1972

2004

Flood disaster

in Bulacan

Flood disaster

in Bulacan

Design inflow of

Angat - exceeded

Flood due to

Ondoy & Pepeng

2012-2013

GoJ:

Upgrading of

Bicol FFWS

Norad:

Magat FWSDO

Flood due Pedring

& Sendong

Upgraded FFWS: Pampanga & Agno river basins


25/28

Upgraded FFWS: Pampanga & Agno river basins

Challenges opportunities & WAY FORWARD


26/28

Challenges, opportunities & WAY FORWARD

1. Establishment of FFWS Centers (buildings) in

the other 13 major river basins in the country2. Installation of 1000 monitoring stations (rainfall

and water level gauges all the major river and

principal river basins

3. Implementation on FEWS projects (local and

foreign funded)

4. Enhancement of flood forecasts showing the

extent or limits of inundation

NOAH program(DOST)

5. Continue flood hazard mapping activities


27/28

Key to flood risk mitigation

Lesson from the MM flood in Sep 2009:

The key to better planning and reconstruction efforts is to

recognize that flooding in the has become conditional. It

depends on land use conditions, urbanization and climate

variability and change. - Nilo & Espinueva, 2009

Essentially, the involvement of the local government

units and the communities at risk is critical in anyflood risk mitigating measure.


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The source of man's unhappinessis his ignorance of Nature.

- Paul Henry Thiry d'Holbach

www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

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Module 2_Hydromet Hazards 4

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