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Refugee crises one generation later: What lessons could Europe learn from Iran?
Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, University of Tehran, National Institute of Population Research (NIPR), and Australian National University
Rasoul Sadeghi, University of Tehran and NIPR
Migration, Citizenship and Demography:
Conference on Demography
4–5 February 2016
European University Institute, Florence, Italy
University of Tehran
Overview� Introduction: Recent irregular
movements
� Iran’s experiences on refugee management
� Migration background of Afghans in Iran
� Adaptation patterns
� Return strategies and intentions
� Lessons learned and policy options
Ref: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2015
Changes of IDP figures over the last decade
Ref: UNHCR 2014
Major refugee-hosting countries, mid-2014
UNHCR (2015). UNHCR Mid-Year Trends 2014. [email protected]
Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean: In April, 2015, a ship carrying hundreds of refugees trying to reach Europe
Source: http://natocouncil.ca/forced-migration-in-the-mediterranean-and-international-law/
Migrants after a rescue operation by the Italian navy off the coast of Sicily. Photograph: Handout/REUTERS, The
Guardian, Wednesday 9 April 2014.
Irregular Migration Routs to Europe
2015
8
https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/06/19/mediterranean-migration-crisis/why-people-flee-what-eu-should-do
9
Lessons learned from the past?
� Trend of refugee migration to Iran?
� Migration background and adaptation patterns of Afghan refugees in Iran?
� What lessons can Europe learn from Iran?
Afghans in Iran: Historical Background
o Before 1979: Labor force migration
o 1979-1989: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; first massive refugee influx
o 1990-1993: First repatriation program
o 1994-2001: Civil war and advent of the Taliban; second massive refugee influx
o After 2001: Second repatriation program
o 2004 onward: New phase of labor force migration
The number (million) of Afghan Immigrants in Iran
0.6
0.8
2.0
3.0
1.41.5
1.2
1.4
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
~1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Source: Various censuses
Number and share of other nationalities in Iran, 2006 and 2011
Nationality 2006 2011
Afghanistan 92.8 93.8
Iraq 3.4 3.3
Pakistan 1.2 1.1
Other 2.6 1.8
Total 100.0 100.0
Number 1,304,016 1,547,679
Ref: Sadeghi and Abbasi-Shavazi, 2015
Estimated number of Afghans in Iran
Type Number
Refugees ~ 950,000
Labour migrants ~ 500,000
Undocumented (Irregular/illegal migrants, over stayers)
~ 1000,000
Total ~ 2,500,000
80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Numbers
2nd generation(Green color) & 1st generation Afghans in Iran, 2006
Males Females
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012
Comparison of Age structure of Native Population (shaded) vs Foreign Nationalities in Iran, 2011
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Percentages
Iran 1390 (shaded) & Migrants 1390
Males Females
Population Composition of Afghans in Iran, 2006 Census
Urban
71%
Rural
27 %
Refugee
Camps
2.1 %
Residence area
Hazara47%
Tajik
30%
Pashtun
13%
Others
10%
Ethnicity
Foreign
born (Afghanistan)
51.2%
Native-born
(Iran)48.8%
Birth place
Geographical distribution of Afghans in Iran, 2011 Census
To what extent Afghans have been adapted to the
Iranian society?
Adaptation: Measurement & Analytical Approaches
Structural approach
(Native-immigrant comparisons)
Intergenerationalapproach
(Intergenerational comparisons)
Attitude-behavioralapproach
(Intra-generational comparisons)
Social
Demographic
Iran: Literacy Status of First and Second Generation Afghan Migrants Compared with Iranians, 2006Source: Based on the Iranian 2006 census
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012
Iran: Labour Force Participation of First and Second Generations of Afghans Compared With Iranians, 2006 Iran Census
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012
Total Fertility Rate Trends in Muslim-majority countries, 1960-2010
Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp
Fertility (TFRs): Afghan Women in Afghanistan and Iran as Compared with Iranian Women, 1992-2006
7.06.9 6.9 6.8
6.7
Afghanistan
3.6
2.7
2.22.0
1.8
Iranians
6.7
5.3
5.0
4.1
3.6
Afghans in Iran
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
1992-1994 1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015
Average children ever born (CEB) of Iranians and Afghan women, 15-49 yrs old, 2006
4.08 4.134.01
3.27 3.15
3.46
2.612.42
2.85
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Total Urban Rural
CE
B
1st generation 2nd generation Iranian women
* Adjusted for Age Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015
Mean of CEB among Iranian and Afghan women by Education Levels, 2006
3.65
2.72
2.38
2.02
1.55
3.73
3.01
2.63
2.11
1.57
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Illiterate Elementary Secondary High school &
Diploma
Higher
education
CEB
Iranian women
Afghan women
Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015
Educational mobility among Afghans in Iran: 1st and 2nd generations by gender, 2011
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012
Occupational mobility among Afghans in Iran: 1st and 2nd generations by gender, 2011
Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012
Structural adaptation of Afghan youth in Iran
� Afghan migrants in Iran had a better socio-economic situation as compared with their counterparts in Afghanistan
� Unbalanced integration (education, health vs. occupation and housing)
� Intergenerational adaptation: the 2nd generation had a better situation and were more integrated into the Iran society
Attitude-behavioral Adaptation: Using Berry’s two-dimensional framework
Acceptance and attachment to the host society M
ain
tain
an
d a
ttach
men
t to
o
rig
in s
ocie
ty &
mig
ran
t co
mm
un
ity
High Low
High Integration Separation
Low Assimilation Marginalization
Source: Berry 1992, 2006.
DATA
� The 2010 Afghans Adaptation Survey
� Conducted in Tehran and Mashhad
� Target population: Afghan Youth aged 15-29.
� Sample size: 620
� The sampling scheme: based on the socio-demographic composition and the geography of settlement of Afghan immigrants.
� Structured questionnaire for data collection
Identity
Identity and sense of belonging
Iranian
20.7 %
Afghan
41.5 %
Dual
26.5 %
Marginal
11.3 %
Identity
If you can choose your nationality/ citizenship which one would you choose?
Nationality
& Citizenship
Iranian
35.0 %
Afghan
32.7 %
Neither
12.9 %
Both
19.4 %
The Patterns of Attitude -behavioral Adaptation among Afghan Youth in Iran, 2010
14.8
%
33.7
%
39.4
%
12.1
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
The Patterns of Attitude -behavioral Adaptation among 1st & 2nd generation Afghan Youth in Iran, 2010
(2nd N= 520 & 1st N=100)
17.1 %
35.8 %33.3 %
13.8 %
3.0 %
23.0 %
71.0 %
3.0 %0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
2nd generation 1st generation
13.6
53.3
25.5
7.6
15.9
34.6
36.9
12.514.2
31.2
37.6
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
A S I M
Illiterate/ primary Secondary/ high school University education
Adaptation Patterns of Afghan Youth by Educational levels
Adaptation Patterns and
Return Aspirations/ Intentions
Return Intentions of Afghan Youth, 2010
Intentions (%) Stayingin Iran
Return toAfghanistan
Planning togo othercountries
Undecided/ dilemma
Current intention about staying in Iran or returning to Afghanistan
60.8 6.6 8.4 24.1
Plan on staying in Iran or returning to Afghanistan in near future (next 2 years) 31.6 10.6 14.4* 43.4
Intention to migrate from Iran to other countries (except Afghanistan)
Yes No Uncertain
20.2 77.1 2.7
*Including; Australia (n=21), Canada (n=13), USA (n=8), Germany (n=6), England (n=5), Sweden (n=5), Other European countries (n=22), Not certain (n=9).
Adaptation and interest in staying in Iran
2.27.2
16.0 18.716.312.0
27.9
29.3
22.8
46.4
37.740.058.7
34.4
18.412.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Not at all A little Rather Very
Chi-square= 91.573 Sig= 0.001
Adaptation and interest in returning to Afghanistan
53.3
12.07.4
28.0
27.2
25.4
13.9
28.0
12.0
37.3
26.2
30.7
7.5
25.3
52.5
13.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Not at all A little Rather Very
Chi-square= 172.316 Sig= 0.001
Adaptation and interest in migration to other countries
34.8
22.027.1
5.3
8.7
8.1
14.3
2.7
16.3
15.3
16.0
10.7
40.254.6
42.6
81.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Not at all A little Rather Very
Chi-square= 46.948 Sig= 0.001
Adaptation and preferred country to grow up children…
62.0
21.5 21.3 17.3
3.3
9.6
33.6
5.3
27.1
19.6
16.0
62.7
7.6
49.3
29.1
14.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized
Iran Afghanistan Other countries I don't know
Chi-square= 209.636 Sig= 0.001
Conclusion: adaptation and mobility
� Second-generation Afghans in Iran have experienced a variety of adaptation patterns and orientations.
� Fertility and family behavior of Afghans have changed towards the host society.
� Attitudes and behavior of the second generation Afghans is more closer to their Iranian counterpart than the first generation.
� The SG Afghans experienced educational -but not occupational - upward mobility.
Summary: Adaptation and return
� A clear majority of second-generation Afghan in Iran did not intend to return to Afghanistan in the short and medium term.
� Assimilated SG Afghans are interested in staying in Iran
� Those in the separated category were more likely to be willing or intending to return to Afghanistan as compared with those in other categories.
� Integrated immigrants have simultaneous attachments to the host society and the homeland. This ambiguity and uncertainty is reflected in the undecided responses toward return aspirations and intentions.
� Marginalized SG Afghans were more willing to migrate to other countries.
Repatriation has slowed down
� More than 5 million Afghans have been repatriated from Pakistan and Iran but the repatriation process has been slow since 2010.
� Boarder control policies may NOT be so effective as long as there is a gap in socio-economic situation between the home and host societies.
� Reintegration of returnees in Afghanistan has implications for future irregular migration
� Those who are repatriated but not reintegrated will communicate and send a message back to their families and friends to stay at host country.
� Women are less intended to return to Afghanistan.
� SOLUTION? Rebuilding Afghanistan may motivate potential migrants to stay in-, and encourage migrants to return to their homeland.
Policies on potential refugees and irregular migrants
� Negotiations for peace process in the Middle East has to be coordinated successfully in order to stop the trend of forced/irregular migration to Europe and neighbouring countries
� Restructuring the countries experiencing conflict (Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen…) would prevent further irregular migration
� Repatriation: Although repatriation of migrants would take time and is a slow process, policies should encourage the educated second-generation Afghans who can build Afghanistan to return to their homeland. This cannot be done without the coordination of the Afghanistan government.
� Afghans are an adaptable group of migrants, and thus, integration is the best strategy for those who remain in EU.
Selected References� Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. Hugo, G., Sadeghi, R. and Mahmoudian, H.,
2015, Immigrant-native fertility differentials: The Afghans in Iran, Asian and Pacific Migration Journal, Vol. 24(3) 273–297. DOI: 10.1177/0117196815594718
� Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. and Sadeghi, R. 2014, Socio-cultural Adaptation of Second-generation Afghans in Iran, International Migration Online version is available at doi: 10.1111/imig.12148
� Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Sadeghi, R., Mahmoudian, H., and Jamshidiha, G., 2012 Marriage and Family Formation of the Second-generation Afghans in Iran: Insight from a qualitative survey, International Migration Review, 46 (4):828–860. DOI: 10.1111/imre.12002
� Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Glazebrook, D., Jamshidiha, G., Mahmoudian, H., & R. Sadeghi, 2008, Second Generation Afghans in Iran: Integration, Identity and Return, Afghanistan and Research Evaluation Research (AREU), Kabul.
� Hugo, G., Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., and Sadeghi, R. 2012, Refugee Movement and Development: Afghan Refugees in Iran, Migration and Development, 1 (2): 261–279.
