19
MOVEET: MOBILITY, VEHICLE FLEET, ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS FORECAST TOOL Joko Purwanto
MOVEET: MOBILITY, VEHICLE FLEET, ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS FORECAST TOOL
Joko Purwanto
Definition & scope
• A new transport & emissions model
• Global scale model: world divided into 57 regions (countries and zones of countries)
• Long-term horizon: 2000 – 2050
• Passenger and freight transport
• All modes: road, rail, air, and maritime, IWW
• Multidimensionality of trips: O/D, purpose, distance band, urban level, time of the day,…
2
3
Model specification 1
Basic modular structure
4
Model specification 2
• Geographical boundary – 57 countries/zones
–33 countries in Europe:
Austria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, UK, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy , Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Czech Republic, Germany, Slovak Republic, Cyprus, Malta, Slovenia, Sweden, Bulgaria, Croatia, The rest of Balkan countries, Romania, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey
–and 24 zones outside Europe:
Canada, USA, Japan, Australia - New Zealand and the rest of South Pacific countries, Russia, Ukraine, The rest of former Soviet Union countries, Mexico, The rest of Central American countries, Brazil, The rest of South American countries, India, The rest of South Asian countries, South Korea, Indonesia, The rest of South East Asian countries, China - Hong-Kong - Macau, Egypt, Oil producer North African countries: Algeria and Libya, Non oil producer North African countries: Western Sahara-Morocco-Tunisia, Israel-Jordan-Lebanon-Syria, Gulf countries, South Africa, The rest of African countries
• Period: 2000 to 2050 (data up to 2005)
5
Model specification 3
•Main sources of data –Socio economic & demographic data:
inline with the European Commission White Paper in transport (2011)
–Initially TREMOVE model database for Europe:
basically stock and vehicle techno-economic data of EU27 countries
–In the last study for ACEA: road vehicle data has been adapted to TRACCS vehicle fleet database. See: http://traccs.emisia.com/
–JRC-IPTS transport models’ database for non-Europe zones: stock and vehicle techno-economic data of 57 world zones
6
Potential use
–Policies related to vehicle technologies:
new emission standards, new technologies, supplementary measures,...
–Policies related to fuel qualities:
fuel standard related to carbon content,...
–Policies related to fiscal instruments:
vehicle taxation, incentive for low emission cars,...
–Policies related to traffic management:
logistics, changes in speed-flow curves,...
7
Demand Module 1
• Intracontinental demand
–Passenger: regression based on GDP and motorisation rate
–Freight: regression based on GDP and trade
• Intercontinental demand
–Estimated from origin (country/zone) to destination (macro region)
–Regression based on: GDP, tariff, generalised costs of OD, etc.
Endogenous demand generation
8
Demand Module 2
Intercontinental demand generation: Regions and macro regions
Macro-region Countries or Regions
North America (NOA) CAN, USA
Central America (CEA) MEX, RCAM
South America (SOA) BRA, RSAM
Europe (EUR) Europe (first column in Table 2)
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
RUS, UKR, and RFSU
Africa (AFR) NOAN, NOAP, SSAF
Middle East (MEA) EGY, MEME, GOLF
China (CHI) CHN
North East Asia (NEA) COR, JPN
South East Asia (SEA) RSEA
Oceania (OCE) RJAN
South West Asia (SWA) NDE, RSAS,
9
Demand Module 3
Demand segmentation: dimensions
Segmentation of demand
mainly due to “macro”
circumstances
Segmentation of demand
mainly due to “micro”
decisions
Geographical dimensions,
(national vs. international; etc.), trip
purposes and period of time
(peak vs. off-peak).
Depend on the macroscopic context
rather than on individual choices.
Transport mode and road type.
Choices between alternatives
10
Energy use and emissions
Costs
Fleet planning
Demand segmentation
Demand generation
GDP, population, other factors
Transport demand
Prices
Transport supply
Fleet size and composition
Expected transport supply
Additions to the fleet
Scrappage
Performance
Vehicle features
Vehicle costs
Fuel and other costs
Fuel use Emissions
Fleet Module 1
..and the rest of the model
11
Fleet Module 2
XX
XN
AT
FL
Tt-
1
XX
X N
AT
FL
Tt
XX
X E
XP
FL
Tt
XXX FLTRETt
XXX EXPFLTRETt
XXX FLTNEWt-1
XXX FLTNEWt
t-1 t t+1
Classical vehicle dynamic
12
Fleet Module 3
Vehicle types
• Air (10): passenger jets (5), freighter (3), passenger turboprops (2)
• Maritime (22): liquid bulk (6), gas bulk (1), dry bulk (8), container (6), non cargo (1)
• Rail (6): diesel loc, electric loc, steam loc, HST electric loc, diesel railcar, electric railcar
• Road freight (8): diesel & gasoline LDT, four classes of HDT
• Passenger cars (11): light & heavy gasoline, light & heavy diesel, battery electric, FC, H2FC, gasoline hybrid, diesel hybrid, H2 hybrid, natural gas
13
Energy Use & Emission Module 1
• Main activity: Calculation of fuel consumptions and tank-to-
wheel (exchaust) emissions
• Main methods:
Modes Methods Pollutants
Road Copert IV, IPTS transport model
CH4, CO, CO2, N2O, NOX, PM, SO2, VOC, NMVOC
Rail TRENDS Project, IPTS transport model
CH4, CO, CO2, NOX, PM, SO2, VOC, NMVOC
Air TRENDS Project, Sutkus et al. 2001, 2003
CO,CO2, NOx, VOC
Inland waterways Artemis Project CH4, CO, CO2, N2O, NOX, PM, SO2, VOC, NMVOC
Maritime IPTS Transport Model
CO2
14
Energy Use & Emission Module 2
Energy use and emissions
Costs
Fleet planning
Demand segmentation
Demand generation
GDP, population, other factors
Transport demand
Prices
Transport supply
Fleet size and composition
Expected transport supply
Additions to the fleet
Scrappage
Performance
Vehicle features
Vehicle costs
Fuel and other costs
Fuel use Emissions
15
Welfare Module
• Consumer surplus
Logsum approach based on the nested logit tree structure in the demand module (De Jong et al, 2005 and Akiva and Lerman, 1979) Consumer surplus is the utility in monetary terms that a person receives in the choice situation.
• Externalities
In relation to climate change, pollutant, and accident calculated in the environmental module
• Distorsion due to taxes and subsidies
Based on taxes, subsidies, and VAT summed up for all lowest nodes of the nested logit tree
16
Baseline scenario background & assumptions
• Demographic: World population grows steadily from 6.3 billion people (2005) to 8.9 billion (2050) . • Economic: Total world GDP would rise from 31.5 T€ (2000) to 128 T€ (2050). Change of world economic growth centre • Energy: oil price would rise according to World Energy Outlook (2008) from USD 100/bbl (2010) to USD 120/bbl (2030) to USD 300/bbl (2050) (in term of nominal price). • Greenhouse gas:
carbon tax in the 33 European countries is assumed to increase linearly from 1€/tCO2 (2013) to 38 €/tCO2 (2050). This tax is assumed to be zero in the rest of the world. European Union countries: emission targets 2015 and 2020-2021 for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
Example 1: EU CO2 limit for passenger cars
17
ROP REGEMCO2
800
600
400
200
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Time (Year)
M*
t C
O2
ROP REGEMCO2[EUR] : MOVEET_real115_20150603v1
ROP REGEMCO2[EUR] : MOVEET_real105_20150603v1
ROP REGEMCO2[EUR] : MOVEET_real95_20150603v1
Example 2: LNG Ships Penetration
18
2015 2020 2025 2030
High LNG vessels 50 584 1976 6846
share 0,06% 0,61% 1,76% 4,94%
Baseline vessels 50 561 1893 6580
share 0,06% 0,58% 1,69% 4,75%
Low LNG vessels 50 554 1867 6494
share 0,06% 0,58% 1,67% 4,68%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2020 2025 2030
LNG Low Baseline LNG High
Impacts on penetration rate of LNG ships due to 3 different capex cost scenarios
Impacts on EU flag ships CO2 emissions (MtCO2) due to 3 different capex cost scenarios
