| Date post: | 01-Apr-2016 |
| Category: |
Documents |
| Upload: | fri-research |
| View: | 217 times |
| Download: | 0 times |
MPB Decision Support Tool (DST) Prototype Development
April 25, 2012
Willi Fast
Yanguo Qin, Cosmin Tansanu
Brian Maier, Kerry Nice, Spiros Sioutis
Dick Dempster
Shongming Huang
Ellen MacDonald
4 topics to be Addressed:
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
4 topics to be Addressed:
• Context for MPB DST
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
4 topics to be Addressed:
• Context for MPB DST
• Objectives for MPB DST
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
4 topics to be Addressed:
• Context for MPB DST
• Objectives for MPB DST
• DST Overview
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
4 topics to be Addressed:
• Context for MPB DST
• Objectives for MPB DST
• DST Overview
• Ongoing Development
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• Tree vs Stand vs Landscape
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• MPB’s effects are most dramatically seen at the Landscape Level
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• MPB’s effects are most dramatically seen at the Landscape Level
• MPB management response most meaningfully implemented at Landscape Level
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• In absence of major in-fights, MPB works mainly at Tree- and Stand-Level
• Tree-to-Tree, and Stand-to-Stand spread
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• For Landscape-level projection and planning to be meaningful, need Stand-Level understanding of dynamics:
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• For Landscape-level projection and planning to be meaningful, need Stand-level understanding of dynamics: – MPB infestation and spread
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• For Landscape-level projection and planning to be meaningful, need Stand-level understanding of dynamics: – MPB infestation and spread
– Stand vegetation development (growth)
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Context for MPB DST
• Problem of Scale:
• For Landscape-level projection and planning to be meaningful, need Stand-level understanding of dynamics: – MPB infestation and spread
– Stand vegetation development (growth)
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
MPB DST
DST Development
DST Objective is to:
“ ……… project stand conditions under a range of MPB-induced mortality, secondary stand structure and regeneration scenarios …….. “
DST Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Mortality patterns
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
DST Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Mortality patterns
– How does MPB-kill progress through a stand over
time ?
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Secondary Stand Structure
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Secondary Stand Structure
– What secondary stand structures exist in stands
being attacked by MPB ?
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Secondary Stand Structure
– What secondary stand structures exist in stands
being attacked by MPB ?
– How will remaining secondary structure behave (mortality, ingress, growth) after MPB attack ?
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Regeneration
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Regeneration
– What level of regeneration (Pl, other ?) can be
expected after MPB attack?
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
Success necessitates an Understanding of:
• Regeneration
– What level of regeneration (Pl, other ?) can be
expected after MPB attack?
– How will new regeneration behave (mortality, ingress, growth) after MPB attack?
MPB Ecology Program Workshop
MPB Ecology Workshop
MPB
Kill
Landscap
e Level
Plans
MPB DST:
Stand
Level
Projections
Ancillary Research Management Response
Regen
-
eratio
n
Stand
Struc-
ture
Shel
f
Life
Integration Tool
What does the DST do ?
Stratum,
Stand
Type,
Age
0 %,
25 %,
50 %,
100 %
Existing Condition Beetle Kill
Natural,
Planting,
Site Prep
Regeneration Assumptions
No, Yes
Salvage Treatments
Alberta’s Growth
Models:
GYPSY
MGM
Growth
Projections
What does the DST look like ?
What does the DST look like ?
DST Output
DST Output
DST Output
Ongoing Development
• User group given opportunity to use DST
Ongoing Development
• User group given opportunity to use DST
• User feedback solicited with on-line Response Facility
Ongoing Development
• User group given opportunity to use DST
• User feedback solicited with on-line Response Facility
• User Feedback Workshop
Ongoing Development
• User group given opportunity to use DST
• User feedback solicited with on-line Response Facility
• User Feedback Workshop
• Enhancement Plan developed to address User Feedback issues
Ongoing Development
Ongoing Development
Suite of Stand Types Available
Ongoing Development
Suite of Stand Types Available
• Sw and Fb understories not currently in DST
Ongoing Development
Suite of Stand Types Available
• Sw and Fb understories not currently in DST
• ‘No Salvage’ may become an important management prescription if Sw and Fb can be shown as important in supporting medium-term timber supplies
Ongoing Development
Applicability of Starting Conditions
Ongoing Development
Applicability of Starting Conditions
• Starting densities, ages, heights did not always reflect the kinds of stands that users need to address
Ongoing Development
Applicability of Starting Conditions
• Starting densities, ages, heights did not always reflect the kinds of stands that users need to address
• Currently no ability to enter ‘custom’ starting conditions to reflect local conditions
Ongoing Development
Applicability of Starting Conditions
• Expanded scope of data to define starting conditions (operational PSP’s, not just those in the MPB monitoring program)
• Currently developing a new suite of starting conditions to address missing stand types
Ongoing Development
Regeneration response in Unsalvaged Stands
Ongoing Development
Regeneration response in Unsalvaged Stands
• Currently, no natural regeneration of Pl after MPB attack in the absence of Salvage
Ongoing Development
Regeneration response in Unsalvaged Stands
• Currently, no natural regeneration of Pl after MPB attack in the absence of Salvage
• Based largely on BC published literature
Ongoing Development
Regeneration response in Unsalvaged Stands
• Currently, no natural regeneration of Pl after MPB attack in the absence of Salvage
• Based largely on BC published literature
• Current assumptions are conservative and likely an under-estimate of natural regeneration expected after MPB
Ongoing Development
Regeneration response in Unsalvaged Stands
• DST revisions will await data from research describing post-MPB regeneration responses
Ongoing Development
Shelf-Life of MPB killed timber
Ongoing Development
Shelf-Life of MPB killed timber
• Currently, post-MPB Wood Quality parameters are based on published observations in BC
Ongoing Development
Shelf-Life of MPB killed timber
• Currently, post-MPB Wood Quality parameters are based on published observations in BC
• Anecdotal evidence that Alberta responses are different
Ongoing Development
Shelf-Life of MPB killed timber
• Currently, post-MPB Wood Quality parameters are based on published observations in BC
• Anecdotal evidence that Alberta responses are different
• More severe Checking, faster Fall Down
Ongoing Development
Shelf-Life of MPB killed timber
• DST revisions will await data and results from MPB Ecology Program research with Kathy Lewis
Ongoing Development
Non-tree vegetation responses in MPB Stands
Ongoing Development
Non-tree vegetation responses in MPB Stands
• DST does not currently report any non-tree vegetation responses after MPB
Ongoing Development
Non-tree vegetation responses in MPB Stands
• DST does not currently report any non-tree vegetation responses after MPB
• 2010 field measurement provide first opportunity to describe non-tree vegetation response after MPB
Ongoing Development
Non-tree vegetation responses in MPB Stands
• DST does not currently report any non-tree vegetation responses after MPB
• 2010 field measurement provide first opportunity to describe non-tree vegetation response after MPB
• Use/application of non-tree vegetation trends have not been defined
Ongoing Development
MPB attack and mortality assumptions
Ongoing Development
MPB attack and mortality assumptions
• DST currently only addresses 4 discrete levels of MPB attack (0, 25, 50, 100%)
Ongoing Development
MPB attack and mortality assumptions
• DST currently only addresses 4 discrete levels of MPB attack (0, 25, 50, 100%)
• An intermediate level of 75 – 80% is currently being integrated into the DST – anecdotally, this is a `typical` level of MPB infestation being observed
Ongoing Development
Validation of GYPSY 3 Layers
Ongoing Development
Validation of GYPSY 3 Layers
• DST projections required a 3-layer version of GYPSY
Ongoing Development
Validation of GYPSY 3 Layers
• DST projections required a 3-layer version of GYPSY
• Developed by Huang in response to DST request
Ongoing Development
Validation of GYPSY 3 Layers
• DST projections required a 3-layer version of GYPSY
• Developed by Huang in response to DST request
• GYPSY 3-Layers continues to be un-validated, and is not considered ‘approved’ by Alberta SRD
Summary
The MPB DST is:
• A Stand-level projection tool for simulating post-MPB stand development
Summary
The MPB DST is:
• A Stand-level projection tool for simulating post-MPB stand development
• Currently under going revision to address shortfalls in projection capability and stand type suitability
Summary
The MPB DST is:
• A Stand-level projection tool for simulating post-MPB stand development
• Currently under going revision to address shortfalls in projection capability and stand type suitability
• An integrative tool that can provide stand-level forecasts, that are required by Landscape-level plans
Summary
The MPB DST is:
• Easily modified to incorporate new research and knowledge
Summary
The MPB DST is:
• Easily modified to incorporate new research and knowledge
• A logical integrative tool for applying research findings to management planning and response
