Lorraine MaclauchlanLorraine MaclauchlanMinistry of Forests & RangeMinistry of Forests & Range

Southern Interior RegionSouthern Interior RegionKamloops, BCKamloops, BC

The B.C. Red Tide The B.C. Red Tide –– ebbs and ebbs and flowsflows

The mountain pine beetle, The mountain pine beetle, DendroctonusDendroctonus ponderosaeponderosae,, in B.C.in B.C.

Here today. . . gone tomorrowHere today. . . gone tomorrow

How we got here and what lies How we got here and what lies aheadahead

The most recent chapter in B.C.The most recent chapter in B.C.’’ssstory of the mountain pine beetlestory of the mountain pine beetle

How biology, population dynamics, How biology, population dynamics, climate, our landscapes and our climate, our landscapes and our forests have accelerated this forests have accelerated this exercise in exercise in forest successionforest succession

The mountain pine beetle is the most The mountain pine beetle is the most destructive insect of mature pine in western destructive insect of mature pine in western North AmericaNorth America

Normally, MPB populations are small and Normally, MPB populations are small and innocuous, existing in weakened trees or with innocuous, existing in weakened trees or with other insects (e.g. other insects (e.g. IpsIps))

Periodically, as host & climatic conditions Periodically, as host & climatic conditions allow, largeallow, large--scale outbreaks occurscale outbreaks occur

MPB attacks all native pines & some MPB attacks all native pines & some exoticexoticspecies . . . species . . . And sometimes make mistakes!And sometimes make mistakes!

The birth of an outbreak.The birth of an outbreak.Initially, very small spots are observed.Initially, very small spots are observed.

EndemicEndemic

IncipientIncipient

EpidemicEpidemic

DecliningDeclining

# o

f be

etle

s#

of

beet

les

TimeTime

CRITICAL PATHCRITICAL PATH

Gradually, these spots expand and coalesce.Gradually, these spots expand and coalesce.

EndemicEndemic

IncipientIncipient

EpidemicEpidemic

DecliningDeclining

# o

f be

etle

s#

of

beet

les

TimeTime

Ultimately, these spots die off . . . or an outbreak Ultimately, these spots die off . . . or an outbreak ensues with landscape level impactsensues with landscape level impactsEndemicEndemic

IncipientIncipient

EpidemicEpidemic

DecliningDeclining

# o

f be

etle

s#

of

beet

les

TimeTime

Community impactsCommunity impacts

Juniper Ridge, east of KamloopsJuniper Ridge, east of Kamloops20072007

Juniper Ridge, east of KamloopsJuniper Ridge, east of KamloopsMay 2008May 2008

All sizes and ages of All sizes and ages of lodgepolelodgepole & Ponderosa & Ponderosa pine are now being attacked.pine are now being attacked.

Recreation and urban impactsRecreation and urban impacts

Prince George Golf course (2005)Prince George Golf course (2005)

Red Rock Nursery, Prince George Red Rock Nursery, Prince George -- 20062006

There are three main phases of a bark beetle's life history:There are three main phases of a bark beetle's life history:

1.1.DispersalDispersal

2.2.ColonizationColonization

3.3.ProductionProduction

Except for a short dispersal Except for a short dispersal flight (24flight (24--48 hrs), MPB 48 hrs), MPB spend all their one year life spend all their one year life under the bark of host pine under the bark of host pine trees.trees.

DispersalDispersal

2006

2005

093G072_350_351

Beetles disperse within Beetles disperse within stands and between stands stands and between stands seeking optimal hosts for seeking optimal hosts for colonization.colonization.

Critical factors:Critical factors: Synchrony Synchrony of emergence & dispersal; of emergence & dispersal; time seeking suitable host.time seeking suitable host.

Critical factors:Critical factors: Long Long range dispersal range dispersal ““challengeschallenges”” the MPB.the MPB.

Dispersing beetles Dispersing beetles must find suitable, must find suitable, susceptible hosts, with susceptible hosts, with enough enough critical masscritical mass to to colonize successfully. colonize successfully.

Barriers to dispersalBarriers to dispersalClimatic limitationsClimatic limitationsWind/air movementsWind/air movementsInhospitable ecosystemsInhospitable ecosystems

Landscapes . . .Landscapes . . .

Landscapes . . .Landscapes . . .

Monotonous topography, age Monotonous topography, age classes and speciesclasses and speciesNo impediments to dispersalNo impediments to dispersalFavourable climateFavourable climateWind/air movementsWind/air movementsSuitable ecosystemsSuitable ecosystems

Keys to success: Keys to success: ••mass attackmass attack == many many

MPB attack a tree in a MPB attack a tree in a short time periodshort time period

•• MPB carry a MPB carry a fungusfungus that that rapidly stops transpiration rapidly stops transpiration and resin production and resin production (changing moisture (changing moisture content of tree)content of tree)

ColonizationColonization

Females initiate attack Females initiate attack releasing releasing pheromonespheromones that that attract males & other females.attract males & other females.

To avoid To avoid overcrowdingovercrowding, MPB , MPB then produces an antithen produces an anti--aggregation pheromone aggregation pheromone called called verbenoneverbenone..

Mass Attack!!Mass Attack!!

MPB preferentially attacks large, MPB preferentially attacks large, old pine trees (>80 yrs).old pine trees (>80 yrs).Seldom over 80% stems in a stand Seldom over 80% stems in a stand are killed; remaining trees often are killed; remaining trees often suppressed, small (resistant??).suppressed, small (resistant??).

Trees respond to attack by trying to “pitch out” beetles.

Spores acquired and disseminated Spores acquired and disseminated viavia mycangiamycangia & hairs on & hairs on beetle; inoculated as beetles bore into bark; disrupt beetle; inoculated as beetles bore into bark; disrupt transpiration and terminate resin production by treestranspiration and terminate resin production by trees

ColonizationColonization: MPB & : MPB & OphiostomaOphiostoma

Colonization success . . . Host resistance . . . MPB nutritionColonization success . . . Host resistance . . . MPB nutrition

MPB making mistakes - attack on spruce

MPB making mistakes MPB making mistakes --attack in young pineattack in young pine

(20(20--50 years)50 years)

EggsEggs LarvaLarva

PupaPupaAdultAdult

Mountain Pine BeetleMountain Pine BeetleLife CycleLife Cycle

ProductionProduction>80% brood >80% brood mortality for mortality for population population declinedecline

Late JulyLate July--AugustAugust

August August -- overwinteroverwinter

Following summer ~JuneFollowing summer ~June

Natural mortality factorsNatural mortality factors

CleridClerid beetle larvabeetle larva

Woodpeckers feed on MPBWoodpeckers feed on MPB

Various beetles, flies, wasps Various beetles, flies, wasps and many other organisms are and many other organisms are predatory or parasitic on life predatory or parasitic on life stages of MPB.stages of MPB.

Climatic InfluencesClimatic Influences

•• Summer temperatures Summer temperatures (timing/duration of warm (timing/duration of warm spells)spells)

•• drought (affects host & drought (affects host & insect)insect)

•• unseasonable unseasonable temperatures (fall/spring)temperatures (fall/spring)

•• cold winters cold winters (periods of severe (periods of severe cold, cold, --4040°°C)C)

Southern Southern Interior RegionInterior Region

10.0 mill ha red attack mapped in 200710.0 mill ha red attack mapped in 2007

Peace

Alberta

Annual Red-Attack in B.C.

0123456789

10

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Mill

ions

of H

ecta

res

164,567284,041

785,497

1,968,641

4,066,817

7,021,886

8,736,068

9,300,00010,040,182

78% (vs. 82% last year)

increasingincreasing>4.0>4.0

StaticStatic2.6 2.6 –– 4.04.0

DecreasingDecreasing0.0 0.0 –– 2.52.5

Population trendPopulation trendrr--valuevalue

MPB population assessmentMPB population assessment““rr--valuesvalues””

0

5

10

15

20

25

Clearw

ater

Kamloo

psOK Shu

swap

Merritt

Arrow

Columbia

Kooten

ay La

keRoc

ky M

ounta

in

Ave

rage

"R" p

er D

istri

ct

2004 2005 2006 2007

Annual average rAnnual average r--values in Southern values in Southern Interior B.C. 2004Interior B.C. 2004--20072007

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Quesnel CentralCariboo

Chilcotin 100 MileHouse

Headwaters

Ave

rage

"R" v

alue

2004 2005 2006 2007

Annual average rAnnual average r--values in South Central values in South Central Interior B.C. 2004Interior B.C. 2004--20072007

Youn

g pi

ne

Average rAverage r--values in the Peacevalues in the Peace20072007--20082008

4.04.00.10.11.31.3rr--valuevalue

99.799.785.485.493.793.7% larval mortality% larval mortality

37.437.417.817.830.130.1DBH (cm)DBH (cm)

MaximumMaximumMinimumMinimumAverageAverage

Our Predictions for MPB are holding trueOur Predictions for MPB are holding true

•• The outbreak has The outbreak has peaked peaked in much of the in much of the central interior of B.C.central interior of B.C.

•• Climate has played a major role in promoting Climate has played a major role in promoting this outbreak but will unlikely cause a this outbreak but will unlikely cause a premature collapsepremature collapse

•• The MPB is accelerating in the south portions The MPB is accelerating in the south portions of B.C.of B.C.

•• MPB getting desperate & making MPB getting desperate & making mistakesmistakes

TweedsmuirTweedsmuir Park Park -- 19991999

Sigutlat Lake, Sigutlat Lake, TweedsmuirTweedsmuir ParkPark-- 20072007

Area of MPB in Provincial and National Parks in Area of MPB in Provincial and National Parks in the Southern Interior Region in 2007the Southern Interior Region in 2007

Total number of ParksTotal number of Parks 305305Number of Parks with MPBNumber of Parks with MPB 164164Total Provincial Park areaTotal Provincial Park area 2,849,595 ha2,849,595 haTotal National Park areaTotal National Park area 429,300 ha429,300 haArea of MPB in Area of MPB in Provincial ParksProvincial Parks 345,254 ha345,254 haArea of MPB in Area of MPB in National ParksNational Parks 12,501 ha12,501 ha

Lac le Lac le JeuneJeune Provincial Park Provincial Park –– MPB harvest 2006MPB harvest 2006

Lac le Lac le JeuneJeune Provincial Park Provincial Park –– harvested again 2007 harvested again 2007

““Desperate House wivesDesperate House wives””

Overwhelmed!!Overwhelmed!!

B.C.B.C.

““Desperate Bark BeetlesDesperate Bark Beetles””

Natural Balance in Endemic PhaseNatural Balance in Endemic Phase

MPBMPB Biological/physical Biological/physical control agentscontrol agents

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

CFR

DCODKLDABDRMDOSDHWDKADCSDMHDCCDQUDCH

DSSDMKDPGDPCDVADJADND

Ha

affe

cted

by

MPB

Area (ha) of mountain pine beetle mapped in BC: 2007Area (ha) of mountain pine beetle mapped in BC: 2007

303,208 ha MPB mapped in Kamloops District303,208 ha MPB mapped in Kamloops District1.183 mill ha mapped in 1.183 mill ha mapped in QuesnelQuesnel DistrictDistrict

Southern Interior Region Northern Interior RegionC

oast

al R

egio

n

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Ha

red

atta

ck

153,352 ha mapped in 2007

Area of MPB red attack in the Okanagan Area of MPB red attack in the Okanagan ShuswapShuswap from 1980from 1980--20072007

Not yet peaked - increasing

Okanagan TSA July 11, 2007Okanagan TSA July 11, 2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Ha

red

atta

ck

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Ha

red

atta

ck

KamloopsKamloops ––303,208 ha303,208 ha in in 20072007

Cascades Cascades ––320,060 ha320,060 ha in in 20072007

Peaked & on the decline

Not yet peaked - increasing

Bonaparte Lake, Kamloops District July 2007Bonaparte Lake, Kamloops District July 2007

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Quesnel Central Cariboo Chilcotin

Ha

affe

cted

by

MP

B

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Hectares affected by MPB 2003Hectares affected by MPB 2003--2004 2004 in the in the CaribooCariboo

QuesnelQuesnel 20072007old greys, recent harvest & attack in young standsold greys, recent harvest & attack in young stands

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Prince George Nadina Mackenzie

Ha

affe

cted

by

MP

B

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Hectares affected by MPB 2003Hectares affected by MPB 2003--2004 2004 in 3 northern Districtsin 3 northern Districts

All on the decline

The dynamics have changed: The dynamics have changed: mature host depletion; mature host depletion; warm climate; and, huge aerial mass movements of MPB.warm climate; and, huge aerial mass movements of MPB.

MPB and young pine.MPB and young pine. 6161

In 2003In 2003--2004 localized stands of young pine 2004 localized stands of young pine were identified as having scattered, localized were identified as having scattered, localized MPB attack. MPB attack.

In 2005, 2006 and 2007 significant areas of In 2005, 2006 and 2007 significant areas of young pine were affected throughout the range young pine were affected throughout the range of the outbreak area.of the outbreak area.

The 2006 beetle flight (2007 reds) was The 2006 beetle flight (2007 reds) was particularly aggressive with significant particularly aggressive with significant expansions seen in the more southern districts of expansions seen in the more southern districts of the province (e.g. Kamloops, 100 Mile House & the province (e.g. Kamloops, 100 Mile House & Cascades).Cascades).

Mountain pine beetle, Mountain pine beetle, IpsIps pinipini and otherand other bark bark beetles are moving into young, and small, pinebeetles are moving into young, and small, pine

Summary statisticsSummary statistics% stands % stands ww MPBMPB% stands % stands ww >>50% red 50% red atkatk

2005200549%49%4.3%4.3%

2006200674%74%9%9%

2007200783%83%

16.8%16.8%

Aerial assessments of young pine: 2005Aerial assessments of young pine: 2005--20072007

Pine <10 cm diameter are being attacked and Pine <10 cm diameter are being attacked and mortality will continue for 1mortality will continue for 1--2 years after MPB 2 years after MPB subsides in surrounding mature stands.subsides in surrounding mature stands.

Attack densities very high in young pine but brood Attack densities very high in young pine but brood survival/emergence is low. Therefore little contribution to survival/emergence is low. Therefore little contribution to overall beetle population . . . but enough to have continuing, overall beetle population . . . but enough to have continuing, low levels of attack in affected young stands.low levels of attack in affected young stands.

0 1-5 6-1011

-1516

-2021

-2526

-3031

-3536

-4041

-4546

-5051

-5556

-6061

-6566

-7071

-7576

-8081

-8586

-9091

-95

96-10

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

7002005 2006 2007

Percent MPB attackPercent MPB attack

Num

ber s

tand

s su

rvey

edN

umbe

r sta

nds

surv

eyed

Frequency of MPB attack in stands Frequency of MPB attack in stands aerially surveyed 2005aerially surveyed 2005--20072007

Increasing frequency of stands w >50% attack

0

10

20

30

40

50

20-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-55

Ave

% M

PB a

ttack

in a

ttack

ed s

tand

s

0

10

20

30

40

20-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-55

Ave

% M

PB a

ttack

in a

ttack

ed s

tand

s

Average MPB Average MPB attack (%) in attack (%) in

attacked standsattacked standsNumbers on bars Numbers on bars indicate % stands indicate % stands

with attackwith attack

ChilcotinChilcotin

80%80%

91%91%96%96%

100%100%

100%100%

96%96%

88%88%90%90%

71%71%50%50%

Central Central CaribooCariboo

~50% attack in all stands

~35% attack in all stands

Stand Age

43.7%>50% attack23.4%21-50% attack

6.8%11-20% attack7.7%6-10% attack9.5%1-5% attack4.0%no attack

% standsMPB attack (%)

Kamloops young pine aerial survey Kamloops young pine aerial survey results results –– 20072007

(310 stands assessed)(310 stands assessed)

MaysonMayson Lake July 12, 2007Lake July 12, 2007

Low adjacent pressure but high inLow adjacent pressure but high in--stand attack stand attack from massive aerial dispersal of beetlesfrom massive aerial dispersal of beetles

32.7%>50% attack32.3%21-50% attack11.8%11-20% attack10.0%6-10% attack

9.1%1-5% attack3.6%1% attack4.1%no attack

% standsMPB attack (%)

QuesnelQuesnel young pine aerial survey results young pine aerial survey results –– 20072007

(220 stands assessed)(220 stands assessed)

Sept 7, 2007Sept 7, 2007

12.7%12.7%>50% attack>50% attack21.1%21.1%2121--50% attack50% attack10.5%10.5%1111--20% attack20% attack11.8%11.8%66--10% attack10% attack21.1%21.1%11--5% attack5% attack14.3%14.3%1% attack1% attack

22.8%22.8%no attackno attack

% stands% standsMPB attack (%)MPB attack (%)

Cascades young pine aerial survey Cascades young pine aerial survey results results –– 20072007

(237 stands assessed)(237 stands assessed)

July 31, 2007July 31, 2007

1.061.060.800.80Merritt Merritt -- Placer CrPlacer Cr6.536.530.730.73Merritt Merritt -- Pike Pike MtnMtn0.240.240.320.32Kamloops Kamloops -- 2 2 0.220.220.350.35Kamloops Kamloops -- 11

YoungYoungMatureMature"R" value"R" value

3.923.920.030.03VernonVernon4.794.790.530.53MerrittMerritt3.743.741.491.49GoldenGolden

MaximumMaximumMinimumMinimum

"R" value (mature)"R" value (mature)

““RR””--values in young & mature pinevalues in young & mature pine

•• Conventional Conventional verbenoneverbenone application overlaid on application overlaid on an old spacing trial in 2006.an old spacing trial in 2006.

•• Some (but minimal) protection was observedSome (but minimal) protection was observed•• Density, stem size, Density, stem size, verbenoneverbenone interactioninteraction

2007 2007 VerbenoneVerbenone Flake TrialFlake Trial•• 6.7 kg/ha (15% 6.7 kg/ha (15% a.ia.i.. by weight; 1,000 by weight; 1,000

gm gm a.ia.i.. per ha)per ha)

•• Successful 2007 MPB attack range: Successful 2007 MPB attack range: 2.2% to 17.6% in control blocks; and, 2.2% to 17.6% in control blocks; and, no attackno attack to 2.1% in treated blocksto 2.1% in treated blocks

Conclusion Conclusion –– verbenoneverbenone flakes effectively flakes effectively protected young pine under a protected young pine under a lightlight--moderatemoderateMPB immigration pressureMPB immigration pressure

Young pine stands in Georges Creek, Kamloops DistrictYoung pine stands in Georges Creek, Kamloops District

Model has been developed to estimate Model has been developed to estimate future impact to young pine stands.future impact to young pine stands.

Implication of mortality in young stands:Implication of mortality in young stands:

•• MidMid--term timber supply issuesterm timber supply issues

•• Regeneration/rehabilitation of young stands (?)Regeneration/rehabilitation of young stands (?)

•• Wildlife habitat concerns (connectivity)Wildlife habitat concerns (connectivity)

•• Fire concernsFire concerns

Resilient landscapes . . .Resilient landscapes . . .

Young stands will remain at risk for 2 to Young stands will remain at risk for 2 to 4 years, to varying degrees in BC, 4 years, to varying degrees in BC, depending upon location and course of depending upon location and course of outbreak in mature pine resource.outbreak in mature pine resource.

DeciduousDeciduous

Mixed speciesMixed species

MPBMPB--killed young pinekilled young pine

A photograph is taken of A photograph is taken of every stand assessed every stand assessed

(not all stands are (not all stands are surveyed each year).surveyed each year).

The following are some The following are some examples. examples.

Polygon/stand specific Polygon/stand specific aerial surveys of aerial surveys of

young pine have been young pine have been conducted conducted

throughout B.C. for throughout B.C. for 3 years (20053 years (2005--2007) 2007)

20052005

20062006

20072007

20062006

092P084_873092P084_873

Resilient Resilient landscapes . . . landscapes . . .

20062006

20072007

20072007

20062006

093F083_1150

20072007

20062006

093B056_183093B056_183

20072007

20062006

093F083_1096093F083_1096

Resilient Resilient landscapes . . . landscapes . . .

093G015_569 093G015_569

20062006

20072007

20052005

Resilient Resilient landscapes . . . landscapes . . .

20062006

20072007

092P066_567

Resilient landscapes . . . Resilient landscapes . . .

2005

2007

20072007

20062006

093G016_941093G016_941

20062006

20052005

093G072_241093G072_241

As beetle pressure declines and As beetle pressure declines and large aerial dispersals cease the large aerial dispersals cease the

outbreak will continue within stands outbreak will continue within stands not totally overrun.not totally overrun.

SummarySummary

young pineyoung pine

mature pinemature pine

recent harvest for MPBrecent harvest for MPB

The landscape will be a mosaic of new The landscape will be a mosaic of new harvest, regenerating stands, harvest, regenerating stands,

intermediate age classes, standing intermediate age classes, standing dead, deciduous species . . . dead, deciduous species . . .

resilienceresilience

Some facts and predictions Some facts and predictions

Approximately 40% of the Approximately 40% of the merchantable pine merchantable pine volumevolume in B.C. has likely already been killedin B.C. has likely already been killed

The outbreak is projected to continue to cause The outbreak is projected to continue to cause significant damage for at least 3 more yearssignificant damage for at least 3 more years

It is estimated that It is estimated that >80 million m>80 million m33 will be killed will be killed annually until 2009annually until 2009

At this point, the outbreak may At this point, the outbreak may rapidly declinerapidly declinedue to the loss of mature pine in which the due to the loss of mature pine in which the beetle can build up significant broodbeetle can build up significant brood

There is significant There is significant variabilityvariability in the timing of in the timing of the peak in the infestation in different areas the peak in the infestation in different areas of B.C.of B.C.

How will the outbreak decline? How will the outbreak decline?

Young pine and nonYoung pine and non--host species (spruce) are host species (spruce) are acting as acting as ““beetle sinksbeetle sinks””

As the core of the outbreak area As the core of the outbreak area ““burns outburns out””, , the beetlethe beetle’’s longs long--distance dispersal may distance dispersal may declinedecline

Without a Without a ““critical masscritical mass”” in longin long--distance distance dispersal, high beetle mortality will occur as dispersal, high beetle mortality will occur as they encounter unsuitable habitatthey encounter unsuitable habitat

Areas on the periphery of the outbreak may Areas on the periphery of the outbreak may see less damage than the current model see less damage than the current model predicts . . . uncertainty about young pinepredicts . . . uncertainty about young pine

Thank You!Thank You!