Lorraine MaclauchlanLorraine MaclauchlanMinistry of Forests & RangeMinistry of Forests & Range
Southern Interior RegionSouthern Interior RegionKamloops, BCKamloops, BC
The B.C. Red Tide The B.C. Red Tide –– ebbs and ebbs and flowsflows
The mountain pine beetle, The mountain pine beetle, DendroctonusDendroctonus ponderosaeponderosae,, in B.C.in B.C.
Here today. . . gone tomorrowHere today. . . gone tomorrow
How we got here and what lies How we got here and what lies aheadahead
The most recent chapter in B.C.The most recent chapter in B.C.’’ssstory of the mountain pine beetlestory of the mountain pine beetle
How biology, population dynamics, How biology, population dynamics, climate, our landscapes and our climate, our landscapes and our forests have accelerated this forests have accelerated this exercise in exercise in forest successionforest succession
The mountain pine beetle is the most The mountain pine beetle is the most destructive insect of mature pine in western destructive insect of mature pine in western North AmericaNorth America
Normally, MPB populations are small and Normally, MPB populations are small and innocuous, existing in weakened trees or with innocuous, existing in weakened trees or with other insects (e.g. other insects (e.g. IpsIps))
Periodically, as host & climatic conditions Periodically, as host & climatic conditions allow, largeallow, large--scale outbreaks occurscale outbreaks occur
MPB attacks all native pines & some MPB attacks all native pines & some exoticexoticspecies . . . species . . . And sometimes make mistakes!And sometimes make mistakes!
The birth of an outbreak.The birth of an outbreak.Initially, very small spots are observed.Initially, very small spots are observed.
EndemicEndemic
IncipientIncipient
EpidemicEpidemic
DecliningDeclining
# o
f be
etle
s#
of
beet
les
TimeTime
CRITICAL PATHCRITICAL PATH
Gradually, these spots expand and coalesce.Gradually, these spots expand and coalesce.
EndemicEndemic
IncipientIncipient
EpidemicEpidemic
DecliningDeclining
# o
f be
etle
s#
of
beet
les
TimeTime
Ultimately, these spots die off . . . or an outbreak Ultimately, these spots die off . . . or an outbreak ensues with landscape level impactsensues with landscape level impactsEndemicEndemic
IncipientIncipient
EpidemicEpidemic
DecliningDeclining
# o
f be
etle
s#
of
beet
les
TimeTime
Community impactsCommunity impacts
Juniper Ridge, east of KamloopsJuniper Ridge, east of Kamloops20072007
Juniper Ridge, east of KamloopsJuniper Ridge, east of KamloopsMay 2008May 2008
All sizes and ages of All sizes and ages of lodgepolelodgepole & Ponderosa & Ponderosa pine are now being attacked.pine are now being attacked.
Recreation and urban impactsRecreation and urban impacts
Prince George Golf course (2005)Prince George Golf course (2005)
Red Rock Nursery, Prince George Red Rock Nursery, Prince George -- 20062006
There are three main phases of a bark beetle's life history:There are three main phases of a bark beetle's life history:
1.1.DispersalDispersal
2.2.ColonizationColonization
3.3.ProductionProduction
Except for a short dispersal Except for a short dispersal flight (24flight (24--48 hrs), MPB 48 hrs), MPB spend all their one year life spend all their one year life under the bark of host pine under the bark of host pine trees.trees.
DispersalDispersal
2006
2005
093G072_350_351
Beetles disperse within Beetles disperse within stands and between stands stands and between stands seeking optimal hosts for seeking optimal hosts for colonization.colonization.
Critical factors:Critical factors: Synchrony Synchrony of emergence & dispersal; of emergence & dispersal; time seeking suitable host.time seeking suitable host.
Critical factors:Critical factors: Long Long range dispersal range dispersal ““challengeschallenges”” the MPB.the MPB.
Dispersing beetles Dispersing beetles must find suitable, must find suitable, susceptible hosts, with susceptible hosts, with enough enough critical masscritical mass to to colonize successfully. colonize successfully.
Barriers to dispersalBarriers to dispersalClimatic limitationsClimatic limitationsWind/air movementsWind/air movementsInhospitable ecosystemsInhospitable ecosystems
Landscapes . . .Landscapes . . .
Landscapes . . .Landscapes . . .
Monotonous topography, age Monotonous topography, age classes and speciesclasses and speciesNo impediments to dispersalNo impediments to dispersalFavourable climateFavourable climateWind/air movementsWind/air movementsSuitable ecosystemsSuitable ecosystems
Keys to success: Keys to success: ••mass attackmass attack == many many
MPB attack a tree in a MPB attack a tree in a short time periodshort time period
•• MPB carry a MPB carry a fungusfungus that that rapidly stops transpiration rapidly stops transpiration and resin production and resin production (changing moisture (changing moisture content of tree)content of tree)
ColonizationColonization
Females initiate attack Females initiate attack releasing releasing pheromonespheromones that that attract males & other females.attract males & other females.
To avoid To avoid overcrowdingovercrowding, MPB , MPB then produces an antithen produces an anti--aggregation pheromone aggregation pheromone called called verbenoneverbenone..
Mass Attack!!Mass Attack!!
MPB preferentially attacks large, MPB preferentially attacks large, old pine trees (>80 yrs).old pine trees (>80 yrs).Seldom over 80% stems in a stand Seldom over 80% stems in a stand are killed; remaining trees often are killed; remaining trees often suppressed, small (resistant??).suppressed, small (resistant??).
Trees respond to attack by trying to “pitch out” beetles.
Spores acquired and disseminated Spores acquired and disseminated viavia mycangiamycangia & hairs on & hairs on beetle; inoculated as beetles bore into bark; disrupt beetle; inoculated as beetles bore into bark; disrupt transpiration and terminate resin production by treestranspiration and terminate resin production by trees
ColonizationColonization: MPB & : MPB & OphiostomaOphiostoma
Colonization success . . . Host resistance . . . MPB nutritionColonization success . . . Host resistance . . . MPB nutrition
MPB making mistakes - attack on spruce
MPB making mistakes MPB making mistakes --attack in young pineattack in young pine
(20(20--50 years)50 years)
EggsEggs LarvaLarva
PupaPupaAdultAdult
Mountain Pine BeetleMountain Pine BeetleLife CycleLife Cycle
ProductionProduction>80% brood >80% brood mortality for mortality for population population declinedecline
Late JulyLate July--AugustAugust
August August -- overwinteroverwinter
Following summer ~JuneFollowing summer ~June
Natural mortality factorsNatural mortality factors
CleridClerid beetle larvabeetle larva
Woodpeckers feed on MPBWoodpeckers feed on MPB
Various beetles, flies, wasps Various beetles, flies, wasps and many other organisms are and many other organisms are predatory or parasitic on life predatory or parasitic on life stages of MPB.stages of MPB.
Climatic InfluencesClimatic Influences
•• Summer temperatures Summer temperatures (timing/duration of warm (timing/duration of warm spells)spells)
•• drought (affects host & drought (affects host & insect)insect)
•• unseasonable unseasonable temperatures (fall/spring)temperatures (fall/spring)
•• cold winters cold winters (periods of severe (periods of severe cold, cold, --4040°°C)C)
Southern Southern Interior RegionInterior Region
10.0 mill ha red attack mapped in 200710.0 mill ha red attack mapped in 2007
Peace
Alberta
Annual Red-Attack in B.C.
0123456789
10
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Mill
ions
of H
ecta
res
164,567284,041
785,497
1,968,641
4,066,817
7,021,886
8,736,068
9,300,00010,040,182
78% (vs. 82% last year)
increasingincreasing>4.0>4.0
StaticStatic2.6 2.6 –– 4.04.0
DecreasingDecreasing0.0 0.0 –– 2.52.5
Population trendPopulation trendrr--valuevalue
MPB population assessmentMPB population assessment““rr--valuesvalues””
0
5
10
15
20
25
Clearw
ater
Kamloo
psOK Shu
swap
Merritt
Arrow
Columbia
Kooten
ay La
keRoc
ky M
ounta
in
Ave
rage
"R" p
er D
istri
ct
2004 2005 2006 2007
Annual average rAnnual average r--values in Southern values in Southern Interior B.C. 2004Interior B.C. 2004--20072007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Quesnel CentralCariboo
Chilcotin 100 MileHouse
Headwaters
Ave
rage
"R" v
alue
2004 2005 2006 2007
Annual average rAnnual average r--values in South Central values in South Central Interior B.C. 2004Interior B.C. 2004--20072007
Youn
g pi
ne
Average rAverage r--values in the Peacevalues in the Peace20072007--20082008
4.04.00.10.11.31.3rr--valuevalue
99.799.785.485.493.793.7% larval mortality% larval mortality
37.437.417.817.830.130.1DBH (cm)DBH (cm)
MaximumMaximumMinimumMinimumAverageAverage
Our Predictions for MPB are holding trueOur Predictions for MPB are holding true
•• The outbreak has The outbreak has peaked peaked in much of the in much of the central interior of B.C.central interior of B.C.
•• Climate has played a major role in promoting Climate has played a major role in promoting this outbreak but will unlikely cause a this outbreak but will unlikely cause a premature collapsepremature collapse
•• The MPB is accelerating in the south portions The MPB is accelerating in the south portions of B.C.of B.C.
•• MPB getting desperate & making MPB getting desperate & making mistakesmistakes
TweedsmuirTweedsmuir Park Park -- 19991999
Sigutlat Lake, Sigutlat Lake, TweedsmuirTweedsmuir ParkPark-- 20072007
Area of MPB in Provincial and National Parks in Area of MPB in Provincial and National Parks in the Southern Interior Region in 2007the Southern Interior Region in 2007
Total number of ParksTotal number of Parks 305305Number of Parks with MPBNumber of Parks with MPB 164164Total Provincial Park areaTotal Provincial Park area 2,849,595 ha2,849,595 haTotal National Park areaTotal National Park area 429,300 ha429,300 haArea of MPB in Area of MPB in Provincial ParksProvincial Parks 345,254 ha345,254 haArea of MPB in Area of MPB in National ParksNational Parks 12,501 ha12,501 ha
Lac le Lac le JeuneJeune Provincial Park Provincial Park –– MPB harvest 2006MPB harvest 2006
Lac le Lac le JeuneJeune Provincial Park Provincial Park –– harvested again 2007 harvested again 2007
““Desperate House wivesDesperate House wives””
Overwhelmed!!Overwhelmed!!
B.C.B.C.
““Desperate Bark BeetlesDesperate Bark Beetles””
Natural Balance in Endemic PhaseNatural Balance in Endemic Phase
MPBMPB Biological/physical Biological/physical control agentscontrol agents
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
CFR
DCODKLDABDRMDOSDHWDKADCSDMHDCCDQUDCH
DSSDMKDPGDPCDVADJADND
Ha
affe
cted
by
MPB
Area (ha) of mountain pine beetle mapped in BC: 2007Area (ha) of mountain pine beetle mapped in BC: 2007
303,208 ha MPB mapped in Kamloops District303,208 ha MPB mapped in Kamloops District1.183 mill ha mapped in 1.183 mill ha mapped in QuesnelQuesnel DistrictDistrict
Southern Interior Region Northern Interior RegionC
oast
al R
egio
n
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Ha
red
atta
ck
153,352 ha mapped in 2007
Area of MPB red attack in the Okanagan Area of MPB red attack in the Okanagan ShuswapShuswap from 1980from 1980--20072007
Not yet peaked - increasing
Okanagan TSA July 11, 2007Okanagan TSA July 11, 2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Ha
red
atta
ck
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Ha
red
atta
ck
KamloopsKamloops ––303,208 ha303,208 ha in in 20072007
Cascades Cascades ––320,060 ha320,060 ha in in 20072007
Peaked & on the decline
Not yet peaked - increasing
Bonaparte Lake, Kamloops District July 2007Bonaparte Lake, Kamloops District July 2007
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Quesnel Central Cariboo Chilcotin
Ha
affe
cted
by
MP
B
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Hectares affected by MPB 2003Hectares affected by MPB 2003--2004 2004 in the in the CaribooCariboo
QuesnelQuesnel 20072007old greys, recent harvest & attack in young standsold greys, recent harvest & attack in young stands
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Prince George Nadina Mackenzie
Ha
affe
cted
by
MP
B
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Hectares affected by MPB 2003Hectares affected by MPB 2003--2004 2004 in 3 northern Districtsin 3 northern Districts
All on the decline
The dynamics have changed: The dynamics have changed: mature host depletion; mature host depletion; warm climate; and, huge aerial mass movements of MPB.warm climate; and, huge aerial mass movements of MPB.
MPB and young pine.MPB and young pine. 6161
In 2003In 2003--2004 localized stands of young pine 2004 localized stands of young pine were identified as having scattered, localized were identified as having scattered, localized MPB attack. MPB attack.
In 2005, 2006 and 2007 significant areas of In 2005, 2006 and 2007 significant areas of young pine were affected throughout the range young pine were affected throughout the range of the outbreak area.of the outbreak area.
The 2006 beetle flight (2007 reds) was The 2006 beetle flight (2007 reds) was particularly aggressive with significant particularly aggressive with significant expansions seen in the more southern districts of expansions seen in the more southern districts of the province (e.g. Kamloops, 100 Mile House & the province (e.g. Kamloops, 100 Mile House & Cascades).Cascades).
Mountain pine beetle, Mountain pine beetle, IpsIps pinipini and otherand other bark bark beetles are moving into young, and small, pinebeetles are moving into young, and small, pine
Summary statisticsSummary statistics% stands % stands ww MPBMPB% stands % stands ww >>50% red 50% red atkatk
2005200549%49%4.3%4.3%
2006200674%74%9%9%
2007200783%83%
16.8%16.8%
Aerial assessments of young pine: 2005Aerial assessments of young pine: 2005--20072007
Pine <10 cm diameter are being attacked and Pine <10 cm diameter are being attacked and mortality will continue for 1mortality will continue for 1--2 years after MPB 2 years after MPB subsides in surrounding mature stands.subsides in surrounding mature stands.
Attack densities very high in young pine but brood Attack densities very high in young pine but brood survival/emergence is low. Therefore little contribution to survival/emergence is low. Therefore little contribution to overall beetle population . . . but enough to have continuing, overall beetle population . . . but enough to have continuing, low levels of attack in affected young stands.low levels of attack in affected young stands.
0 1-5 6-1011
-1516
-2021
-2526
-3031
-3536
-4041
-4546
-5051
-5556
-6061
-6566
-7071
-7576
-8081
-8586
-9091
-95
96-10
00
100
200
300
400
500
600
7002005 2006 2007
Percent MPB attackPercent MPB attack
Num
ber s
tand
s su
rvey
edN
umbe
r sta
nds
surv
eyed
Frequency of MPB attack in stands Frequency of MPB attack in stands aerially surveyed 2005aerially surveyed 2005--20072007
Increasing frequency of stands w >50% attack
0
10
20
30
40
50
20-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-55
Ave
% M
PB a
ttack
in a
ttack
ed s
tand
s
0
10
20
30
40
20-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-55
Ave
% M
PB a
ttack
in a
ttack
ed s
tand
s
Average MPB Average MPB attack (%) in attack (%) in
attacked standsattacked standsNumbers on bars Numbers on bars indicate % stands indicate % stands
with attackwith attack
ChilcotinChilcotin
80%80%
91%91%96%96%
100%100%
100%100%
96%96%
88%88%90%90%
71%71%50%50%
Central Central CaribooCariboo
~50% attack in all stands
~35% attack in all stands
Stand Age
43.7%>50% attack23.4%21-50% attack
6.8%11-20% attack7.7%6-10% attack9.5%1-5% attack4.0%no attack
% standsMPB attack (%)
Kamloops young pine aerial survey Kamloops young pine aerial survey results results –– 20072007
(310 stands assessed)(310 stands assessed)
MaysonMayson Lake July 12, 2007Lake July 12, 2007
Low adjacent pressure but high inLow adjacent pressure but high in--stand attack stand attack from massive aerial dispersal of beetlesfrom massive aerial dispersal of beetles
32.7%>50% attack32.3%21-50% attack11.8%11-20% attack10.0%6-10% attack
9.1%1-5% attack3.6%1% attack4.1%no attack
% standsMPB attack (%)
QuesnelQuesnel young pine aerial survey results young pine aerial survey results –– 20072007
(220 stands assessed)(220 stands assessed)
Sept 7, 2007Sept 7, 2007
12.7%12.7%>50% attack>50% attack21.1%21.1%2121--50% attack50% attack10.5%10.5%1111--20% attack20% attack11.8%11.8%66--10% attack10% attack21.1%21.1%11--5% attack5% attack14.3%14.3%1% attack1% attack
22.8%22.8%no attackno attack
% stands% standsMPB attack (%)MPB attack (%)
Cascades young pine aerial survey Cascades young pine aerial survey results results –– 20072007
(237 stands assessed)(237 stands assessed)
July 31, 2007July 31, 2007
1.061.060.800.80Merritt Merritt -- Placer CrPlacer Cr6.536.530.730.73Merritt Merritt -- Pike Pike MtnMtn0.240.240.320.32Kamloops Kamloops -- 2 2 0.220.220.350.35Kamloops Kamloops -- 11
YoungYoungMatureMature"R" value"R" value
3.923.920.030.03VernonVernon4.794.790.530.53MerrittMerritt3.743.741.491.49GoldenGolden
MaximumMaximumMinimumMinimum
"R" value (mature)"R" value (mature)
““RR””--values in young & mature pinevalues in young & mature pine
•• Conventional Conventional verbenoneverbenone application overlaid on application overlaid on an old spacing trial in 2006.an old spacing trial in 2006.
•• Some (but minimal) protection was observedSome (but minimal) protection was observed•• Density, stem size, Density, stem size, verbenoneverbenone interactioninteraction
2007 2007 VerbenoneVerbenone Flake TrialFlake Trial•• 6.7 kg/ha (15% 6.7 kg/ha (15% a.ia.i.. by weight; 1,000 by weight; 1,000
gm gm a.ia.i.. per ha)per ha)
•• Successful 2007 MPB attack range: Successful 2007 MPB attack range: 2.2% to 17.6% in control blocks; and, 2.2% to 17.6% in control blocks; and, no attackno attack to 2.1% in treated blocksto 2.1% in treated blocks
Conclusion Conclusion –– verbenoneverbenone flakes effectively flakes effectively protected young pine under a protected young pine under a lightlight--moderatemoderateMPB immigration pressureMPB immigration pressure
Young pine stands in Georges Creek, Kamloops DistrictYoung pine stands in Georges Creek, Kamloops District
Model has been developed to estimate Model has been developed to estimate future impact to young pine stands.future impact to young pine stands.
Implication of mortality in young stands:Implication of mortality in young stands:
•• MidMid--term timber supply issuesterm timber supply issues
•• Regeneration/rehabilitation of young stands (?)Regeneration/rehabilitation of young stands (?)
•• Wildlife habitat concerns (connectivity)Wildlife habitat concerns (connectivity)
•• Fire concernsFire concerns
Resilient landscapes . . .Resilient landscapes . . .
Young stands will remain at risk for 2 to Young stands will remain at risk for 2 to 4 years, to varying degrees in BC, 4 years, to varying degrees in BC, depending upon location and course of depending upon location and course of outbreak in mature pine resource.outbreak in mature pine resource.
DeciduousDeciduous
Mixed speciesMixed species
MPBMPB--killed young pinekilled young pine
A photograph is taken of A photograph is taken of every stand assessed every stand assessed
(not all stands are (not all stands are surveyed each year).surveyed each year).
The following are some The following are some examples. examples.
Polygon/stand specific Polygon/stand specific aerial surveys of aerial surveys of
young pine have been young pine have been conducted conducted
throughout B.C. for throughout B.C. for 3 years (20053 years (2005--2007) 2007)
20052005
20062006
20072007
20062006
092P084_873092P084_873
Resilient Resilient landscapes . . . landscapes . . .
20062006
20072007
20072007
20062006
093F083_1150
20072007
20062006
093B056_183093B056_183
20072007
20062006
093F083_1096093F083_1096
Resilient Resilient landscapes . . . landscapes . . .
093G015_569 093G015_569
20062006
20072007
20052005
Resilient Resilient landscapes . . . landscapes . . .
20062006
20072007
092P066_567
Resilient landscapes . . . Resilient landscapes . . .
2005
2007
20072007
20062006
093G016_941093G016_941
20062006
20052005
093G072_241093G072_241
As beetle pressure declines and As beetle pressure declines and large aerial dispersals cease the large aerial dispersals cease the
outbreak will continue within stands outbreak will continue within stands not totally overrun.not totally overrun.
SummarySummary
young pineyoung pine
mature pinemature pine
recent harvest for MPBrecent harvest for MPB
The landscape will be a mosaic of new The landscape will be a mosaic of new harvest, regenerating stands, harvest, regenerating stands,
intermediate age classes, standing intermediate age classes, standing dead, deciduous species . . . dead, deciduous species . . .
resilienceresilience
Some facts and predictions Some facts and predictions
Approximately 40% of the Approximately 40% of the merchantable pine merchantable pine volumevolume in B.C. has likely already been killedin B.C. has likely already been killed
The outbreak is projected to continue to cause The outbreak is projected to continue to cause significant damage for at least 3 more yearssignificant damage for at least 3 more years
It is estimated that It is estimated that >80 million m>80 million m33 will be killed will be killed annually until 2009annually until 2009
At this point, the outbreak may At this point, the outbreak may rapidly declinerapidly declinedue to the loss of mature pine in which the due to the loss of mature pine in which the beetle can build up significant broodbeetle can build up significant brood
There is significant There is significant variabilityvariability in the timing of in the timing of the peak in the infestation in different areas the peak in the infestation in different areas of B.C.of B.C.
How will the outbreak decline? How will the outbreak decline?
Young pine and nonYoung pine and non--host species (spruce) are host species (spruce) are acting as acting as ““beetle sinksbeetle sinks””
As the core of the outbreak area As the core of the outbreak area ““burns outburns out””, , the beetlethe beetle’’s longs long--distance dispersal may distance dispersal may declinedecline
Without a Without a ““critical masscritical mass”” in longin long--distance distance dispersal, high beetle mortality will occur as dispersal, high beetle mortality will occur as they encounter unsuitable habitatthey encounter unsuitable habitat
Areas on the periphery of the outbreak may Areas on the periphery of the outbreak may see less damage than the current model see less damage than the current model predicts . . . uncertainty about young pinepredicts . . . uncertainty about young pine
Thank You!Thank You!