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The import of palm oil by Bangladesh crossed the 800,000 metric tonnes (MT) level for the third time, reaching 815,955 MT last year after sinking to 581,183 MT in 2007. Palm oil import by Bangladesh exceeded the 800,000 MT level in 2005 and 2006, with the volumes being 826,446 MT and 878,908 MT respectively. The reduced import of palm oil by the country in 2007 was due to the comparatively higher price of CPO and CPL in the international market, as well as the narrowing of prices between CPO/CPL and CDSBO, which are the two deciding criteria for import of edible oils in this price-sensitive market. Although the prices of CPO/CPL climbed further last year, the price difference between CPO/CPL and CDSBO widened greatly, encouraging local importers and refinery owners to import more CPO/CPL and less CDSBO. Of the three major edible oils imported, the share of palm oil improved to 77 per cent in 2008 from 50 per cent in 2007, while that of CDSBO declined to 20 per cent in 2008 from 44 per cent in 2007. Rapeseed/mustard oil declined to three per cent in 2008 from six per cent in 2007. The positive trend in palm oil import has been continuing in the first two months of this year – at 127,086 tonnes or an increase of 8.52 per cent over the corresponding period in 2008 – and is likely to exceed the 2008 figure. BANGLADESHI ECONOMY Continuous fair economic growth has set Bangladesh’s economy on a sustainable foundation. The country has attained GDP growth of over six per cent for more than five years. However, devastation of large areas of Bangladesh by two major floods and Cyclone Sidr in 2007, along with last year’s record price hikes of petroleum in the world market put pressure on the country’s macro economy. Despite adverse circumstances such as negative impact on import bills due to the crude oil price hike, delay in the Doha Round discussions, increasing growth and wide market expansion of other developing countries, Bangladesh’s foreign trade has remained at a satisfactory level. Up-to-the-mark growths in the export-import trade, unhindered progress in remittance flow and favourable balance of current account have kept the balance of payments stable. Along with the development of the macro economy, the government has taken pragmatic Palm Oil Continues to Lead Bangladeshi Imports Kept up by Stable Economy, Higher Refining Capacity and Increased Consumer Demand Table 1: GDP Growth Trend 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -2006 -2007 -2008 -2009 -2010 -2011 (Projected) (Projected) (Projected) GDP Growth 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.5 7.0 7.2 Rate (%) TM MALAYSIAN PALM OIL COUNCIL KKDN PP 14669/05/2009 VOL: 4 2009 MPOC FORTUNE Continued on page 6 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Quantity in ('000) tonnes Yearwise Import Trend of Major Three Edible Oils: 2003-2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Palm Oil Soyabean Oil Rape/ Mustard Oil Total 524 689 826 879 581 816 424 329 207 320 508 217 94 63 29 49 73 27 1,042 1,081 1,062 1,248 1,162 1,060 Figure 1: Import Trend of Three Major Edible Oils: 2003-08 Source: MPOC Market Intelligence DIRECTOR Wira Adam [email protected]MANAGER Muhammad Kharibi Zainal Ariffin [email protected]MARKET ANALYSTS Asia Pacific Desmond Ng Kok Hooi [email protected]South Asia Fatimah Zaharah Md Nan [email protected]Middle-East Norhaznita Husin [email protected]Africa Iskahar Nordin [email protected]Europe Lim Teck Chaii [email protected]Americas Fatimah Zaharah Md Nan [email protected]For more information, please contact Tel : 603 - 7806 4097 Fax: 603 - 7806 2272 MARKETING & MARKET DEVELOPMENT DIVISION
Transcript
The import of palm oil by Bangladesh crossed the 800,000 metric tonnes (MT) level for the third time, reaching 815,955 MT last year after sinking to 581,183 MT in 2007. Palm oil import by Bangladesh exceeded the 800,000 MT level in 2005 and 2006, with the volumes being 826,446 MT and 878,908 MT respectively. The reduced import of palm oil by the country in 2007 was due to the comparatively higher price of CPO and CPL in the international market, as well as the narrowing of prices between CPO/CPL and CDSBO, which are the two deciding criteria for import of edible oils in this price-sensitive market. Although the prices of CPO/CPL climbed
further last year, the price difference between CPO/CPL and CDSBO widened greatly, encouraging local importers and refinery owners to import more CPO/CPL and less CDSBO. Of the three major edible oils imported, the share of palm oil improved to 77 per cent in 2008 from 50 per cent in 2007, while that of CDSBO declined to 20 per cent in 2008 from 44 per cent in 2007. Rapeseed/mustard oil declined to three per cent in 2008 from six per cent in 2007.
The positive trend in palm oil import has been continuing in the first two months of this year – at 127,086 tonnes or an increase of 8.52 per cent over the corresponding period in 2008 – and is likely to exceed the 2008 figure.
BANGLADESHI ECONOMYContinuous fair economic growth has set Bangladesh’s economy on a sustainable foundation. The country has attained GDP growth of over six per cent for more
than five years. However, devastation of large areas of Bangladesh by two major floods and Cyclone Sidr in 2007, along with last year’s record price hikes of petroleum in the world market put pressure on the country’s macro economy. Despite adverse circumstances such as negative impact on import bills due to the crude oil price hike, delay in the Doha Round discussions, increasing growth and wide market expansion of other developing countries, Bangladesh’s foreign trade has remained at a satisfactory level. Up-to-the-mark growths in the export-import trade, unhindered progress in remittance flow and favourable
balance of current account have kept the balance of payments stable. Along with the development of the macro economy, the government has taken pragmatic
Palm Oil Continues to LeadBangladeshi Imports Kept up by Stable Economy, Higher Refining Capacity and Increased Consumer Demand
For more information, please contact Tel : 603 - 7806 4097Fax: 603 - 7806 2272
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The price of crude palm oil futures (FCPO) traded in Bursa Malaysia broke above the RM2,000 resistance level in late March and surged to the current level of RM2,459 per metric tonne (MT), higher than the price I expected, which was RM2,260 and more bullish than that of other “seasoned” analysts I mentioned in my previous article. The price has been up for five consecutive weeks and has retraced 38.2 per cent from the RM4,486 to RM1,331 downtrend. So, can the uptrend be supported and sustained?
The rise in palm oil price is because of a lower stockpile and higher exports. Stock inventory has declined for four months and is now at its 20-month low as the government encourages planters to chop down trees above 25 years old in a replanting initiative.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), palm oil inventory fell about 13 per cent in February to 1.4 million MT. Well-known analyst Dorab Ministry cautioned last month that if Malaysian palm oil stocks fall below 1.5 million MT, it could cause a dislocation in the industry because of higher prices and delayed shipments.
For the first time this year, exports increased 0.2 per cent in March over the previous month. Exports are expected to be higher in April, with estimates for April 1 to 10 up 3.7 per cent month-on-month, according to cargo surveyor SGS (M) Bhd. Intertek Agri Services is even more optimistic, expecting an 8.2 per cent increase. However, expect exports to slow down a little as demand may decrease because of the unattractively high price. Price of crude FCPO has soared to about 71 per cent from the low of RM1,400 while price of palm oil substitute, soybean oil, has increased by only about 25 per cent from the low of US$30.
The price of FPCPO is currently on a very strong uptrend. The short- and long-term 30- and 90-day moving average is still up, with the short-term trend showing strong momentum upwards. The Average Directional Index (ADX) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators, which measure trend momentum, increased recently after declining since February. The daily average trading volume (30-day average) has increased to about 10 per cent to 8,820 contracts month-on-month
and the open interest daily average increased three per cent, month-on-month.
The price is currently overbought. The 14-day Stochastic Oscillator is currently at 90.8, indicating that the price is heavily overbought. It is 23 per cent above the 15-week moving average, which is used to calculate the “perceived value” of a commodity. The 15-week average is currently at RM2,000 while the long-term average (30-week average) is at RM1,815. The Stochastic crossover and a bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart indicate a possible immediate pullback.
Using a Fibonacci retracement study, price is currently at a resistance level. The 38.2 per cent retracement I mentioned in the first paragraph is a Fibonacci retracement level. The parallel trend line on the chart also shows that the price is at an uptrend resistance level. This analysis supports a pullback or price reversal.
I am not expecting the price to go above the current high of RM2,540 because of these fundamental technical indicators. The average value is about RM2,000, but because of the uptrend, I expect the average to increase to about RM2,100 in a month’s time. Therefore, I expect the price to pull back and trade between RM2,100 and RM2,500 with a downward bias for this month.
MARKETWatch
FCPO daily chart as at 15 April 2009. Charted by Benny Lee using NextView Advisor Professional
Benny Lee is a private trader, trainer and sought-after speaker in the financial market. He is the Chief Market Strategist for NextView Group. NextView Group is a group of companies in the Asian region that provides a leading real-time investment tool for both professional and retail investors. NextView is also a leading Investor Education training provider. For more information, log on to www.nextview.com.
The above analysis and commentary is based on the writer’s personal opinion on the price of crude palm oil using technical analysis and should not be construed as any form of investment advice. The writer will not be responsible for any decision made from using the above article.
W
MPOC FORTUNE • 3
by Benny LeeChief Market Strategist of NextView Group.
Immediate pullbackin price expected
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MARKETInsightsIns g
Continued on page 10
With a population of 23.3 million people, Ghana is the second most populous country in West Africa. Endowed with natural resources, gold and cocoa being major sources of foreign exchange, the country is considered well-administered and is often seen as a model for political and economic reform among the West African countries. Hence, it is not surprising that it is one of the richer countries in West Africa.
Agriculture is the major component of the country’s GDP, which supports 55 per cent of the country’s workforce. The main oilseed crops cultivated are groundnut and oil palm. In the oil palm sector, about 60 per cent of the fruit supply is obtained from plantations while independent smallholders contribute to the balance. Extraction of palm oil is carried out in palm oil mills, although the traditional method is still practised in some parts of Ghana.
NO SELF-SUFFICIENCYAlthough a producer of palm oil, Ghana is not self-sufficient in meeting its requirements for oils and fats. In 2007, the country imported more than 150,000 metric tonnes (MT) of oils and fats, of which 94 per cent was palm oil. The palm oil imported was basically for cooking, while some is used in production of
margarine and soaps. Cooking oil used in Ghana is largely packed in jerry cans of 20 and 25 litres.
Palm oil consumption in Ghana is definitely on the increase. This can be attributed to a number of factors, the
most obvious being that palm oil is the most competitively-priced edible oil, and the country’s growing population, with its birth rate at two per cent last year. Other important factors that contribute to higher palm oil usage are consumer awareness campaigns and successful marketing efforts of the private enterprise.
Ghana’s oils and fats self-sufficiency, using the compound annual growth rate (in percentage), between 2003 and 2007 for consumption and production were 2.8 per cent per annum and 4.6 per cent per annum respectively. Its oils and fats shortfall is estimated to rise from some
Ghana's Palm Oil Usage - Percentage Breakdown By Sectors (%)
0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50.0Source : Trade source
Ghana oils and fats requirement - Projected self sufficiency from 2008-2012
(‘000 MT)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Consumption 223.4 233.7 244.5 255.7 267.5
Production 148.3 152.5 156.8 161.2 165.7
Shortfall 75.1 81.2 87.7 94.5 101.8
6 • MPOC FORTUNE
MARKETInsightsIns g
the development of the macro economy, the government has taken pragmatic measures in social and human resource development. The Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update - March 2008 Report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) includes the country in the list of 13 nations of the world with the prospect of rapid growth. This evaluation by ADB undoubtedly indicates the stable economic system of Bangladesh.
According to provisional estimates of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, GDP growth in fiscal year 2007-08 is 6.2, a decline from the previous year’s GDP growth of 6.5. This fall in the overall growth rate of the country has been attributed mainly to lower growth of the agriculture sector, especially the crop sub-sector.
In 2007-08, per capita GDP stood at US$554 and per capita GNI at US$599,
with total GDP of US$66 billion and per capita income of US$480.
IMPORT OF MAJOR EDIBLE OILSLast year, imports of CPO, CPL and RBD PL increased substantially, but import of total oils and fats declined by 9.13 per cent compared with 2007 because of a decline in the import of CDSBO and soybean. Competitive prices of CPO, CPL and RBD PL, compared with the
price of CDSBO in the international market, boosted the country’s import of CPO, CPL & RBD PL, increasing by 40.4 per cent over 2007. Import of CPO, CPL and RBD PL in 2008 was 815,955 MT, against 581,183 MT in 2007. On the other hand, import of CDSBO, soybean and rape/mustard seed declined by 57.55, 51.94 and 63.18 per cent respectively. Import volumes of CDSBO touched 201,006 MT in 2008 against 474,582 MT in 2007. The import volume of soybean in 2008 was 90,399 MT, the oil equivalent of
which is 16,272 MT and that of rape/mustard seed was 70,633 MT, the oil equivalent of which is 26,840 MT. In 2007, the import volumes of soybean and rape/mustard seeds were, respectively, 188,107 MT (oil equivalent 33,859 MT) and 191,818 MT (72,891 MT).
Of the three major edible oils consumed in the country, palm oil not only retained its lead in import share but also saw this
share increase substantially last year, compared with 2007. Import share of palm oil, which includes CPO, CPL and RBD PL, increased to 77 per cent in 2008 from 50 per cent in 2007. On the other hand, the import share of soybean oil, which includes both imported CDSBO and crude soybean oil obtained by crushing imported soybean locally, declined to 20 per cent in 2008 from 44 per cent in 2007 while that of rape/mustard oil obtained locally by
44 50
6
20
77
3
Rape/Mustard Oil
Soyabean Oil
Palm Oil
Year: 2008
Year: 2007
Figure 2: Import shares of Palm, Soybean and Rape/mustard oils in
2008 and 2007
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Note: 1 Palm oil denotes, CPO, CPL & RBD PL.
2 Rape/mustard oil figures are oil equivalent of imported seed @ 38% extraction.
3 Soybean oil figures include the imported CDSBO and crude soybean oil obtained from imported soybean @ 18% oil extraction.
2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Production
Consumption
Import
173 168 147 174 189
881 1007 1143 1178 1190
1106 1140 1237 1305 1397
Qty
('00
0 to
nnes
)
Yearwise Production, Import vis-a-vis Consumption of Oils & Fats in Bangladesh: 2003-2007
Figure-3: Annual Production - Import vis-à-vis Consumption of Oils & Fats
Source: Oil World
Palm Oil Continues to Lead
Continued from page 1
Continued on page 9
Table 2: Annual Indigenous Production of Oils and Fats: 2002-03 to 2007-08
crushing imported rape/mustard seed also declined to three per cent in 2008 from six per cent a year earlier. It is to be noted that refined olein and super olein dominate the bulk trade while refined soybean oil dominates in consumer packs. The share of bulk trade to consumer packs in country’s total edible oil market is about 80:20.
In Bangladesh, the import share of Malaysian palm oil (MPO) improved to 30 per cent in 2008 from 27.5 per cent in 2007 while that of Indonesian palm oil (IPO) declined to 68 per cent in 2008 from 71 per cent in 2007. Palm oil imported from Thailand accounted for the remaining two per cent in 2008, an increase from 1.5 per cent in 2007.
Although the import share of MPO in 2008 was higher than in 2007, it is still far behind that of IPO. The main reason for the moderate increase in import share of MPO is the absence of any significant presence of dedicated Malaysian suppliers in Bangladesh, compared with the aggressive marketing strategy of IPO suppliers. Competitive price of the IPO also contributed to the declining import share of MPO in the country.
During first two months of this year, import of total oils and fats increased by 13.26 per cent, with palm and soybean oils accounting for the increases. The import of palm oil, including CPO, CPL and RBD PL, was 127,086 MT in the January-February period, recording an 8.5 per cent increase compared with the corresponding period in 2008. The import volume of CDSBO was 56,000 MT, an increase of 49.32 per cent. Soybean import was 48,000 MT, the oil equivalent of which is 8,640 MT. There was no import of rape/mustard seed during the period.
INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION OF OILS & FATSIndigenous production of oils and fats in Bangladesh remained at 200,000 MT a year while total oils and fats demand has been rising every year and now stands at 1.4 million MT. Limited availability of land for oil seed crops, the lack of modern technology and farmers’ preference for the more profitable crops are the main reasons for low local production of oils and fats. It is obvious that the country has little choice but to continue imports, which will grow with increasing demand.
IMPORT OF MINOR EDIBLE AND INEDIBLE OILS AND FATSThe import of the other, or “minor” edible and inedible oils and fats, is insignificant compared with the country’s total import. Minor edible oils and fats made up 3,799 MT of the import in 2008, falling by 35.13
per cent against 2007. This has been due to a fall in the import of the same under the World Food Programme and PL-480.
The import of inedible oils and fats declined by 14.88 per cent as a result of a sharp fall in import of PFAD in 2008, with its higher price in the international market being the cause. Although the import of crude/RBD palm stearin declined slightly by 3.2 per cent, that of PKO increased substantially by 22 per cent due to demand from soap production and certain food products.
MARKET POTENTIALDemand for oils and fats is increasing in Bangladesh, in line with increasing population, the economic betterment of the people and growing urbanisation. According to Oil World Annual 2008, consumption of total oils and fats in Bangladesh increased to 1.4 million MT in 2007 from 1.3 million MT in 2006. Edible oils and fats comprise more than 96 per cent of the total demand and among edible oils, palm oil is the highest consumed.
The 40 per cent increase in palm oil import increase in 2008 over the 2007 figure indicates that Bangladesh is a rapidly growing market for this oil. The use of palm oil in food industries and as cooking oil is increasing and provided its price remains competitive compared with soybean oil, this trend is set to grow.
The growing demand for palm oil has also brought about the establishment of more refineries, even though the country’s total refining capacity is almost three times higher than its annual requirement. Once these new plants are commissioned, the market for palm oil is expected to expand even further. Local
refinery owners are targeting the market in seven states of neighbouring India under the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement. Materialisation of these possibilities will increase the market potential for palm oil in Bangladesh even further. A projection of the total of oils and
fats and palm oil imports for the period 2009-13 can be seen in Table 3.
PALM OLEIN BRANDS IN BANGLADESHWith growing awareness of consumers about palm oil and its nutritional attributes, demand for various palm olein brands has been increasing, and has been further augmented by the support for oil palm plantations in the country by the current Army Chief. As a result, a few more palm olein brands are now in the market. The existing brands are Meizan, Natural, Pure, Family, Dada Super and Shakti. Fakhrul Alam
Two Leading Local Consumer Brands of Palm Oil
Table 3: Projection of Population, Total Import of Oils and Fats vis-à-vis Import of CPO and CPL: 2009-13
Year Population Total Import of Import of Share of @ 1.42% growth Oils and Fats Palm Oil Palm Oil in (in ’000) (in ’000 MT) (in ’000 MT) Total Import of Oils & Fats (in %)
75,100 MT last year to 101,800 MT in 2012. Being the most competitively priced oil in the oil and fats sector, there is a good chance that palm oil will be imported to fill a large portion of the shortfall.
The biggest end-user of palm oil in Ghana is Unilever Ghana, with close to 80 per cent of its palm oil feedstock coming from its own plantations, Twifo Oil Palm and Benzo Oil Palm Plantation. The company imports about 10,000 to 20,000 MT yearly, mainly in crude form, and also owns the largest refinery in the country. Other than Unilever, which is the market leader in a lot of consumer products, the other major oils and fats players in Ghana are Peterson & Zochonis and Sinar Indoghana Ltd. Peterson & Zochonis produces mainly soap with a production of about 10,000 to 12,000 MT of soaps a year, where laundry soap constituting 80 per cent of the output and the remainder as toilet soap. Sinar Indoghana Ltd is a joint venture between PT Sinar Antjol (70 per cent) and a local partner (30 per cent). The company manufactures both toilet and laundry soap, and some medicated
soap, for the local market. The total monthly production is about 500 MT and a small quantity of its soaps is exported to neighbouring Togo and Benin.
Besides offering opportunities for higher sale of palm oil and related products, there are also opportunities for Malaysians to participate in Ghana’s oil palm plantation sector. This follows the government’s efforts to develop the sector to create employment, reduce the import
of oils and fats and diversify the country’s dependency on cocoa as a cash crop. The thrust of the plan is to replant aging trees, improve planting techniques and establish new oil palm plantations.
Oil palm is on the list of development projects under the President’s Special Initiative (PSI) announced in October 2002. In announcing this initiative, the President set a target of making palm oil one of the country’s major export commodities. Among the export markets targeted is West Africa, which imports close to one million MT a year and China, which needs a lot of crude palm oil to feed its giant factories. The government is currently working to develop 300,000
hectares of new oil palm plantations and is encouraging foreign investors to participate.
MPOC will be organising a trade fair and seminar in Ghana next year to create opportunities for those in the Malaysian palm oil industry to invest in the country’s oil palm plantation sector and to provide a platform for players to exploit opportunities in its growing palm oil usage. Apart from Ghana, participants will also have the opportunity to meet potential palm product buyers from other West African nations as the programme will cater to the whole region. Lim Teck
