(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16) Ecosystems...

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16)

EcosystemsEcosystems

Primary Source: Primary Source:

IPCC WG-2 Chapter 4 - Ecosystems, their properties, goods and servicesIPCC WG-2 Chapter 4 - Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services

(Plus parts of WG-2 Chapters 9-16)(Plus parts of WG-2 Chapters 9-16)


Ecosystem Ecosystem

From WG-2 Chapter 4:

“a dynamic complex of plant, animal and micro-organism communities, and the non-living environment, interacting as a functional unit”

“strong interactions between components within their boundaries and weak interactions across boundaries”


Ecosystem Goods & Services - 1Ecosystem Goods & Services - 1

Supporting servicesSupporting services

• Primary and secondary productionPrimary and secondary production

• BiodiversityBiodiversity

Provisioning servicesProvisioning services

• FoodFood

• FibreFibre

• Medicinal and cosmetic productsMedicinal and cosmetic products


Ecosystem Goods & Services - 2Ecosystem Goods & Services - 2

Regulating servicesRegulating services

• Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration

• Climate and water regulationClimate and water regulation

• Buffering natural hazards (e.g., floods)Buffering natural hazards (e.g., floods)

• Water and air purificationWater and air purification

• Disease and pest regulationDisease and pest regulation

Cultural servicesCultural services

• Human spiritual & aesthetic appreciationHuman spiritual & aesthetic appreciation


Major Ecosystems: Areas and Carbon StocksMajor Ecosystems: Areas and Carbon Stocks

Transformed by land use


Key Issues - ResilienceKey Issues - Resilience

Resilience Resilience disturbance tolerated before shifting to disturbance tolerated before shifting to a different state (e.g., forest a different state (e.g., forest prairie) prairie)

- also: ability to adapt naturally- also: ability to adapt naturally

Expectation that ecosystems will tolerate some level of Expectation that ecosystems will tolerate some level of climate change and persistclimate change and persist

- Speed of (“stable”) transient responses?- Speed of (“stable”) transient responses?


Key Issues - Other Human PressuresKey Issues - Other Human Pressures

Extractive use of goodsExtractive use of goods

Increased degradation of natural habitats Increased degradation of natural habitats

Increased fragmentation of natural habitatsIncreased fragmentation of natural habitats

Climate change can amplify these pressuresClimate change can amplify these pressures


Key Issues - Critical ThresholdsKey Issues - Critical Thresholds

Exceding critical threshold

positive feedbackspositive feedbacks

novel states, poorly understoodnovel states, poorly understood

“Climate future and direct human pressures ‘virtually certain’ to be unprecedented vs. past 100s millenia”


Key Issues - Time LagsKey Issues - Time Lags

Time needed for broad-scale biospheric responses or shifts in geographical ranges: poorly understood

E.G.:

• centuries for vegetation

• millennia for soil formation

Further understanding needed: How do ecosystems respond to continuously changing conditions (esp. on human time scales)?


Key Issues - Species ExtinctionsKey Issues - Species Extinctions

Global extinction is a critical issue:

Biodiversity is “very likely” linked to ecosystem functioning and maintenance of ecosystem services.

What extinctions are critical for ecosystem functioning? How do they reduce societal options for adaptation?


Example: “Hot Spots” in Australia & New ZealandExample: “Hot Spots” in Australia & New Zealand

Criteria: large impacts, low adaptive capacity, substantial population, economically important, substantial exposed infrastructure, and subject to other major stresses


Example: Europe’s Key VulnerabilitiesExample: Europe’s Key Vulnerabilities


Colors: Main Colors: Main biogeographic biogeographic regions (EEA, regions (EEA, 2004)2004)


Example: Europe - Change in Species RichnessExample: Europe - Change in Species Richness(Amphibians and Reptiles)(Amphibians and Reptiles)


(Using HadCM3, A1F1 Scenario)(Using HadCM3, A1F1 Scenario)Richness Richness Green Green

RichnessRichness Purple Purple


Latin America: DeforestationLatin America: Deforestation

Predicted 2000-2100 Deforestation Areas

Latin America GHG emissions = ~ 4% of global total ( ~ 50% from land-use change)Latin America GHG emissions = ~ 4% of global total ( ~ 50% from land-use change)

Up to 40% loss of mammalian habitats by 2050.Up to 40% loss of mammalian habitats by 2050.

Important driver: soybean planting [38 Mha (2003/04) Important driver: soybean planting [38 Mha (2003/04) 59 Mha (2019/20)] 59 Mha (2019/20)]


North America: Forest FiresNorth America: Forest Fires

Effect of projected precipitation and (precipitation - evaporation) changes?Effect of projected precipitation and (precipitation - evaporation) changes?

Other stresses (e.g., pests)?Other stresses (e.g., pests)?


North America: Bud BurstNorth America: Bud Burst

Effect on other parts of ecosystem (e.g., pollinating insects)?Effect on other parts of ecosystem (e.g., pollinating insects)?


Arctic: Ecosystem ChangesArctic: Ecosystem Changes

Dynamic vegetation model Dynamic vegetation model driven by HadCM2 (2090-2100)driven by HadCM2 (2090-2100)


Coral BleachingCoral Bleaching

Stresses include:Stresses include:

• Increased ocean acidity (pH)Increased ocean acidity (pH)

• Stronger stormsStronger storms

• Over-fishingOver-fishing

• PollutionPollution

• Cycles such as ENSO & Warmer SSTCycles such as ENSO & Warmer SST

Threats from pollution, development, fishing, sediments, nutrients

Low: Blue High: Red


Future Coral BleachingFuture Coral BleachingStresses:Stresses:

• Increased ocean acidity (pH): No current linkIncreased ocean acidity (pH): No current link

• Stronger storms: Possible in futureStronger storms: Possible in future

• Others: over-fishing, pollution, cycles such as ENSOOthers: over-fishing, pollution, cycles such as ENSO

• Warmer SST: Warmer SST: T > ~ 1 ˚C above summer max. for 4+ weeksT > ~ 1 ˚C above summer max. for 4+ weeks

- expulsion of symbiotic zooxanthellae expulsion of symbiotic zooxanthellae

- fast-growing, bleaching-resistant genera dominate recoveryfast-growing, bleaching-resistant genera dominate recovery

Challenge for projections: How much does coral adapt?


Coral Bleaching Events vs. SSTCoral Bleaching Events vs. SST


Projected Risks vs. Projected Risks vs. TT

Not Included: Effects of over-harvesting, pollution, land-use change, habitat fragmentationNot Included: Effects of over-harvesting, pollution, land-use change, habitat fragmentation


ENDEND

EcosystemsEcosystems

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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Ecosystems (from IPCC WG-2, Chapters 4,9-16) Ecosystems...

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