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MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND MARCH QUARTER 2018 – PERFORMANCE UPDATE
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Page 1: MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND MARCH QUARTER 2018 …munropartners.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Munro-Partners … · HANG SENG INDEX S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONES INDUS. AVG ... 13 GLOBAL

MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDMARCH QUARTER 2018 – PERFORMANCE UPDATE

Page 2: MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND MARCH QUARTER 2018 …munropartners.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Munro-Partners … · HANG SENG INDEX S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONES INDUS. AVG ... 13 GLOBAL

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Disclaimer

Grant Samuel Funds Management Pty Limited ABN 14 125 715 004 AFSL 317587 (Grant Samuel Funds Management) has a distribution arrangement with Munro Asset Management Limited AFSL 480509, Munro Investment Holdings Pty Ltd, Munro Partners (together Munro) to represent their products in Australia and New Zealand.

This presentation provides general information only and has been prepared without taking account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. This document was issued by Grant Samuel Fund Services Limited ABN 48 129 256 104 AFSL 321517 (Grant Samuel Fund Services) on 6 April 2018 for Financial Adviser use only.

Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Neither Grant Samuel Fund Services nor any Grant Samuel or Munro entity guarantees the repayment of capital or the performance of the Fund or any particular returns from the Fund. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data contained in this document.

The information included in this document is provided for informational purposes only and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics. References to any security do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. Any security discussed may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings, and should not be deemed representative of the entire Fund’s holdings.

It contains selected information and does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be relevant. The information contained in the presentation has not been independently verified, nor has any due diligence been conducted in respect of the information provided. It should be noted that any projections or past performance results are provided for general reference purposes and are based on assumptions relating to the general economy and other factors beyond the control of Munro or Grant Samuel. Returns of the Munro Global Growth Fund are net of applicable fees and costs. The MSCI AC World TR Index (AUD) refers to the MSCI All Country World Net Index in Australian dollars. The Top 5 Holdings depict end of month figures and may have changed materially from holdings during the month or not disclosed due to confidentiality reasons. The reference to any security included does not constitute a recommendation to trade such a security. Numbers may not sum due to rounding, compounding returns or GST and RITC.

The recipient represents to Munro and Grant Samuel that it is capable of making its own independent assessment as to the validity and accuracy of the financial assumptions, data, results, calculations and forecasts contained, presented or referred to in the Presentation, and the economic, financial, regulatory, legal, taxation and accounting implications of such. The recipient further represents to Munro and Grant Samuel that it is not relying on any recommendation or statement by Munro. The recipient acknowledges that no independent third-party audit or review has been obtained by Munro or Grant Samuel or has been undertaken by such an independent third party of the financial assumptions, data, results, calculations and forecasts contained, presented or referred to in the Presentation.

Before making an investment decision in relation to the Fund, investors should consider the appropriateness of this information, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs. Prospective investors should read and consider the product disclosure statement for the Fund dated 1 March 2018 which can be obtained from www.gsfm.com.au or by calling (02) 8188 1510.

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-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

HANG SENGCHINA ENT INDX

HANG SENGINDEX

S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONESINDUS. AVG

SHANGHAI SECOMPOSITE

STXE 600 € Pr NIKKEI 225 FTSE 100 INDEX MSCI Local MGGF Local

January 1 to 31 March 2018(%)

= FX Contribution

3

MGGF VS. MAJOR MARKET INDICES - QUARTERLYLocal currency returns of various global markets and the return of the MSCI World AC Index in AUD next to the return of the MGGF in AUD.

Index Return 0.9%

Fund Return 3.4%

Source: Munro Partners & Bloomberg

Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.

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MGGF LONG/SHORT ATTRIBUTION - QUARTERLYJanuary 1 to March 31 basis point attribution of the MGGF by investment category.

Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.

Source: Munro Partners

-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Long Equities

Short Equities

Option Hedging

FX

Munro Global Growth Fund March Quarter Attribution (bps)

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MGGF STOCK AND REGION ATTRIBUTION - QUARTERLYJanuary 1 to March 31 basis point attribution of the MGGF by stock and by region.

Top 5 Performers Bps

Netflix 84

Amazon 71

Micron Technology 36

Blue Prism 34

ASML 32

Bottom 5 Performers Bps

Thor -25

Facebook -19

Swatch -17

BMW -17

Camping World -14

Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.

Source: Munro Partners

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

North Americ

a

Europe

United Kingd

omIsr

ael

Singa

pore

Swed

en

HK/China

Australi

aJap

an

Switz

erlan

d

Regional Performance(bps)

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Snapshot of Munro Global Growth Fund since inception – 31 March 2018

MGGF PERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION

Performance Summary as at 31 March 2018 1MTH 3MTHS 6MTHS 1YR

SINCE INCEPTION

(p.a.)

SINCE INCEPTION

(cumulative)

MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND (AUD) -2.5% 3.4% 8.8% 23.9% 17.9% 31.4%

MSCI AC World TR Net Index (AUD) -0.7% 0.9% 7.0% 14.1% 13.9% 24.2%

OVER / UNDER PERFORMANCE -1.8% 2.5% 1.8% 9.7% 4.0% 7.2%

Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Note inception of the fund was 1 August 2016.

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MGGF NET AND GROSS EXPOSUREThe Munro Global Growth Fund has managed both net and gross exposure through a strong start to calendar 2018 but then subsequent market volatility.

Source: Munro Partners

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18

Net Exposure (trailing 10day average) Gross Exposure (trailing 10day average)

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MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND EXPOSURESnapshot of Munro Global Growth Fund – as at 31 March 2018

Currency Region Gross Exposure Net Exposure Currency

Exposure

Australia 1.3% 1.3% 71.2%

North America 53.2% 53.2% 22.8%

United Kingdom 5.3% 3.3% 0.8%

Euro Area 11.0% 5.0% 4.5%

Germany 4.2% 0.3%

France 1.0% -1.0%

Ireland 2.3% 2.3%

Netherlands 3.4% 3.4%

Israel 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%

Singapore 1.7% -1.7% 0.0%

Sweden 2.4% 2.4% 0.5%

Switzerland 1.5% -1.5% -0.2%

Hong Kong/China 2.8% 2.8% 0.4%

TOTAL 81.0% 66.7% 100.0%

Delta adjusted exposure 83.2% 66.0%

Top 5 Holdings as at 31 March 2018

Stock Country IndustryWeight

(%)

Amazon US Consumer Disc. 4.5

Microsoft US Info. Tech. 3.7

Blue Prism UK Info. Tech. 3.4

ASML NE Info. Tech. 3.4

Activision Blizzard US Info. Tech. 3.3

Gross Sector Exposure and Cash as at 31 March 2018

Source: Munro Partners

Information

Technology,

38.5%

Industrials,

9.9%

Consumer Discretionary, 20.5%

Financials,

5.1%

Consumer Staples,

3.1%

Cash, 33.2%

Materials,

1.9%Options, 0.3%

Health Care, 1.9%

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Car of the Future

Video Games

Wealth Effects

E-Commerce

Emerging Consumer

Outdoor Active

Food Revolution

Digital Payments

Internet Disruption

Digital Enterprise

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

9

Munro Partners has 22 “Areas of Interest” which are parts of the market that the investment team has highlighted as areas of secular growth, the below graphic highlights key ‘AoI’ by Gross weighting.

MGGF INVESTMENTS BY THEME

The Positioning of the Munro Global Growth Fund by ‘AoI’ (Updated 29 Mar 2018)

No. of Holdings

Indicative Position

6

5

3

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

Areas of Interest (AoI)

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MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND MARKET OUTLOOK 2018

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GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKPMI’s have been strong but are now starting to roll over.

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data

58.758.5

52.8

51.6

51.2

58.2

60.1

53.6

51.8

53.5

59.3

60.6

54.0

51.6

52.4

59.1

59.6

54.8

51.3 51.2

60.8

58.6

54.1

50.3

53.2

59.3

56.6

53.1

51.5

53.4

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

US Eurozone Japan China Brazil

Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI's)

Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18

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GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKEarnings growth has been strong, while the market is starting to price in slowing earnings growth in the months ahead.

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Apr-95

Apr-97

Apr-99

Apr-01

Apr-03

Apr-05

Apr-07

Apr-09

Apr-11

Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-17

S&P 500 Index (LHS) and Forward EPS (RHS)

SPX Index Price Fwd EPS

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Apr-95

Apr-97

Apr-99

Apr-01

Apr-03

Apr-05

Apr-07

Apr-09

Apr-11

Apr-13

Apr-15

Apr-17

S&P 500 Index (LHS) and Forward P/E (RHS)

SPX Index Price Fwd P/E Ratio

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14

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKThe path of interest rates and inflation is now the key indicator for markets going forward.

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-62

Jan-66

Jan-70

Jan-74

Jan-78

Jan-82

Jan-86

Jan-90

Jan-94

Jan-98

Jan-02

Jan-06

Jan-10

Jan-14

Jan-18

S&P 500 Earnings Yield - US 10yr Bond Yield(%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

US Federal Funds Rate(%)

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15

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKUS$50 billion in reciprocal tariffs are tiny relative to the US$19.7tr US economy and the $13tr Chinese economy. Goods on which tariffs will be levied represent 0.3% of US GDP and 0.4% of China GDP.

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data

0

5

10

15

20

US GDP China Tariffs

USD

trill

ions

US GDP relative to Chinese Tariffs

0

5

10

15

China GDP US Tariffs

USD

trill

ions

Chinese GDP relative to US Tariffs

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GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKValuations are elevated but by no means euphoric, particularly outside the US.

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data

IInnddeexx PP//EE RRaattiioo DDiivviiddeenndd YYiieelldd

22001177 22001188 22001199 22001177 22001188 22001199

US S&P 500 Index 22.5 16.6 15.0 1.9% 2.1% 2.2%European Stoxx 600 Index 20.8 14.3 13.2 3.2% 3.7% 3.9%UK FTSE 100 Index 22.9 13.4 12.7 4.0% 4.5% 4.6%Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 13.9 11.5 10.5 3.4% 3.6% 3.8%Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 9.2 7.8 7.1 3.6% 4.1% 4.5%Brazil Ibovespa Index 18.9 12.6 11.2 2.5% 3.3% 4.0%Nikkei 225 Index 19.5 15.4 13.5 1.6% 2.0% 2.2%S&P ASX 200 Index 18.0 15.4 14.6 4.2% 4.6% 4.8%

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MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND KEY THEME 2018: DIGITAL ENTERPRISE

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Car of the Future

Video Games

Wealth Effects

E-Commerce

Emerging Consumer

Outdoor Active

Food Revolution

Digital Payments

Internet Disruption

Digital Enterprise

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

18

Munro Partners has 22 “Areas of Interest” which are parts of the market that the investment team has highlighted as areas of secular growth, the below graphic highlights key ‘AoI’ by Gross weighting.

MGGF INVESTMENTS BY THEME

The Positioning of the Munro Global Growth Fund by ‘AoI’ (Updated 31 Mar 2018)

No. of Holdings

Indicative Position

6

5

3

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

Areas of Interest (AoI)

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CASE STUDY 6: THE DIGITAL ENTERPRISE

AoI WinnersSub - Trends

Enterprises and Small-Medium sized Businesses are in the process of going through a digital transformation to ensure they stay at the forefront of their industry and remain relevant. A December 2016 Harvard Business Review survey found that nearly three-quarters of non-digital companies believe that their industry will be disrupted by digital technologies in the future.

THE DIGITAL ENTERPRISE

SOFTWARE-AS-A-SERVICE

INFRASTRUCTURE-AS-A-SERVICE

CYBER SECURITY

IT SERVICES/CONSULTING

INCUMBENT LOSERS

AUTOMATION

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The IT market is a large addressable market at ~$2.1 Trillion. IT spending is likely to grow in 2018 with tax cuts freeing up more dollars to fund big strategic investments in technology. Within IT budgets, software is taking share, with deflation in hardware freeing up capital. Within software, the shift to the cloud continues to see SaaS taking market share.

“SaaS IS EATING THE WORLD”

Software is expected to outgrow other major categories of technology spend over the coming years

Software , 14% Software , 16% Software , 19%

45% 44%45%

8% 8%7%

33% 32% 29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2017e 2021e

% o

f Wor

ldw

ide

IT S

pend

PCs, Printers, Tablets, and Mobile Phones Servers, Networking, and Storage HW

IT Services Software

SaaS taking share from Traditional Software Applications, with penetration currently at 32% and is expected to grow to over 40%.

$154 $170

$189

$210

$234

$258

$284

$38 $48

$60 $73

$87 $101

$117

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ in

Bill

ions

Total Application Software Market Total SaaS Market

Source: Gartner, UBS Analysis Source: Gartner, UBS

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KEY STOCK IDEA: SERVICENOW (LONG)ServiceNow (NOW) is a provider of cloud-based service management and business management solutions. It leverages a service-orientated workflow platform to provide out-of-the box apps, alongside custom development tools, to manage and automate internal processes.

Key Stock Service Now Key Details Market Cap: US$24.9bn

Listed: US

Revenue 2017e: US$1.9bn

QualitativeTests

Growth: The Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) market is forecast to

grow at an 18%+ CAGR over the next 4yrs. We expect NOW to

beat this given they are taking market share as they have

become the standard in the IT Service Management (ITSM). Their

non-ITSM revenue is growing even faster than their core

business.

Economic Leverage: NOW has a growth framework to 2020,

where they will look to grow operating margins by 2-3ppts for

high revenue growth (35%+), 3-4ppts for 30-35% revenue growth

and 4-5ppts for <30% growth.

Sustainability: The wider TAM that NOW is targeting is ~$80bn

so there is a long runway ahead.

Control: The founder is on the board, but there is no controlling

shareholder.

Customer Perception: NOW is the standard in IT Services

Management, renewal rates are very high and they are closing in

on 50% penetration of the Global 2000 companies as customers.

QuantitativeTests

Earnings upside: US tax reform provides a major fillip for IT

spending across corporate America, providing a good backdrop

for revenue acceleration.

Multiple upside: Given the profitability metrics and revenue

growth, the EV/FCF multiple could hold at just above 30x in 2020,

which is were it is today for 2018.

Catalysts / Sizing: Results, product launches.

Outcome Stock discovered: January 2018. Source: Munro Partners

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17

BF

Sale

s

Sha

re P

rice

Share Price BF Sales

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17

BF

EV

/Sa

les

Sha

re P

rice

Share Price BF EV/Sales

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THANK YOU

Munro PartnersLevel 19

80 Collins StreetMelbourne VIC 3000

+ 61 3 9290 0900www.munropartners.com.au

[email protected]


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