MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUNDMARCH QUARTER 2018 – PERFORMANCE UPDATE
2
Disclaimer
Grant Samuel Funds Management Pty Limited ABN 14 125 715 004 AFSL 317587 (Grant Samuel Funds Management) has a distribution arrangement with Munro Asset Management Limited AFSL 480509, Munro Investment Holdings Pty Ltd, Munro Partners (together Munro) to represent their products in Australia and New Zealand.
This presentation provides general information only and has been prepared without taking account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. This document was issued by Grant Samuel Fund Services Limited ABN 48 129 256 104 AFSL 321517 (Grant Samuel Fund Services) on 6 April 2018 for Financial Adviser use only.
Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Neither Grant Samuel Fund Services nor any Grant Samuel or Munro entity guarantees the repayment of capital or the performance of the Fund or any particular returns from the Fund. No representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data contained in this document.
The information included in this document is provided for informational purposes only and is not indicative of future portfolio characteristics. References to any security do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. Any security discussed may represent only a small percentage of the strategy’s portfolio holdings, and should not be deemed representative of the entire Fund’s holdings.
It contains selected information and does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be relevant. The information contained in the presentation has not been independently verified, nor has any due diligence been conducted in respect of the information provided. It should be noted that any projections or past performance results are provided for general reference purposes and are based on assumptions relating to the general economy and other factors beyond the control of Munro or Grant Samuel. Returns of the Munro Global Growth Fund are net of applicable fees and costs. The MSCI AC World TR Index (AUD) refers to the MSCI All Country World Net Index in Australian dollars. The Top 5 Holdings depict end of month figures and may have changed materially from holdings during the month or not disclosed due to confidentiality reasons. The reference to any security included does not constitute a recommendation to trade such a security. Numbers may not sum due to rounding, compounding returns or GST and RITC.
The recipient represents to Munro and Grant Samuel that it is capable of making its own independent assessment as to the validity and accuracy of the financial assumptions, data, results, calculations and forecasts contained, presented or referred to in the Presentation, and the economic, financial, regulatory, legal, taxation and accounting implications of such. The recipient further represents to Munro and Grant Samuel that it is not relying on any recommendation or statement by Munro. The recipient acknowledges that no independent third-party audit or review has been obtained by Munro or Grant Samuel or has been undertaken by such an independent third party of the financial assumptions, data, results, calculations and forecasts contained, presented or referred to in the Presentation.
Before making an investment decision in relation to the Fund, investors should consider the appropriateness of this information, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs. Prospective investors should read and consider the product disclosure statement for the Fund dated 1 March 2018 which can be obtained from www.gsfm.com.au or by calling (02) 8188 1510.
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
HANG SENGCHINA ENT INDX
HANG SENGINDEX
S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONESINDUS. AVG
SHANGHAI SECOMPOSITE
STXE 600 € Pr NIKKEI 225 FTSE 100 INDEX MSCI Local MGGF Local
January 1 to 31 March 2018(%)
= FX Contribution
3
MGGF VS. MAJOR MARKET INDICES - QUARTERLYLocal currency returns of various global markets and the return of the MSCI World AC Index in AUD next to the return of the MGGF in AUD.
Index Return 0.9%
Fund Return 3.4%
Source: Munro Partners & Bloomberg
Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.
4
MGGF LONG/SHORT ATTRIBUTION - QUARTERLYJanuary 1 to March 31 basis point attribution of the MGGF by investment category.
Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.
Source: Munro Partners
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Long Equities
Short Equities
Option Hedging
FX
Munro Global Growth Fund March Quarter Attribution (bps)
5
MGGF STOCK AND REGION ATTRIBUTION - QUARTERLYJanuary 1 to March 31 basis point attribution of the MGGF by stock and by region.
Top 5 Performers Bps
Netflix 84
Amazon 71
Micron Technology 36
Blue Prism 34
ASML 32
Bottom 5 Performers Bps
Thor -25
Facebook -19
Swatch -17
BMW -17
Camping World -14
Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.
Source: Munro Partners
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
North Americ
a
Europe
United Kingd
omIsr
ael
Singa
pore
Swed
en
HK/China
Australi
aJap
an
Switz
erlan
d
Regional Performance(bps)
6
Snapshot of Munro Global Growth Fund since inception – 31 March 2018
MGGF PERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION
Performance Summary as at 31 March 2018 1MTH 3MTHS 6MTHS 1YR
SINCE INCEPTION
(p.a.)
SINCE INCEPTION
(cumulative)
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND (AUD) -2.5% 3.4% 8.8% 23.9% 17.9% 31.4%
MSCI AC World TR Net Index (AUD) -0.7% 0.9% 7.0% 14.1% 13.9% 24.2%
OVER / UNDER PERFORMANCE -1.8% 2.5% 1.8% 9.7% 4.0% 7.2%
Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Note inception of the fund was 1 August 2016.
7
MGGF NET AND GROSS EXPOSUREThe Munro Global Growth Fund has managed both net and gross exposure through a strong start to calendar 2018 but then subsequent market volatility.
Source: Munro Partners
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18
Net Exposure (trailing 10day average) Gross Exposure (trailing 10day average)
8
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND EXPOSURESnapshot of Munro Global Growth Fund – as at 31 March 2018
Currency Region Gross Exposure Net Exposure Currency
Exposure
Australia 1.3% 1.3% 71.2%
North America 53.2% 53.2% 22.8%
United Kingdom 5.3% 3.3% 0.8%
Euro Area 11.0% 5.0% 4.5%
Germany 4.2% 0.3%
France 1.0% -1.0%
Ireland 2.3% 2.3%
Netherlands 3.4% 3.4%
Israel 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Singapore 1.7% -1.7% 0.0%
Sweden 2.4% 2.4% 0.5%
Switzerland 1.5% -1.5% -0.2%
Hong Kong/China 2.8% 2.8% 0.4%
TOTAL 81.0% 66.7% 100.0%
Delta adjusted exposure 83.2% 66.0%
Top 5 Holdings as at 31 March 2018
Stock Country IndustryWeight
(%)
Amazon US Consumer Disc. 4.5
Microsoft US Info. Tech. 3.7
Blue Prism UK Info. Tech. 3.4
ASML NE Info. Tech. 3.4
Activision Blizzard US Info. Tech. 3.3
Gross Sector Exposure and Cash as at 31 March 2018
Source: Munro Partners
Information
Technology,
38.5%
Industrials,
9.9%
Consumer Discretionary, 20.5%
Financials,
5.1%
Consumer Staples,
3.1%
Cash, 33.2%
Materials,
1.9%Options, 0.3%
Health Care, 1.9%
Car of the Future
Video Games
Wealth Effects
E-Commerce
Emerging Consumer
Outdoor Active
Food Revolution
Digital Payments
Internet Disruption
Digital Enterprise
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
9
Munro Partners has 22 “Areas of Interest” which are parts of the market that the investment team has highlighted as areas of secular growth, the below graphic highlights key ‘AoI’ by Gross weighting.
MGGF INVESTMENTS BY THEME
The Positioning of the Munro Global Growth Fund by ‘AoI’ (Updated 29 Mar 2018)
No. of Holdings
Indicative Position
6
5
3
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
Areas of Interest (AoI)
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND MARKET OUTLOOK 2018
12
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKPMI’s have been strong but are now starting to roll over.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
58.758.5
52.8
51.6
51.2
58.2
60.1
53.6
51.8
53.5
59.3
60.6
54.0
51.6
52.4
59.1
59.6
54.8
51.3 51.2
60.8
58.6
54.1
50.3
53.2
59.3
56.6
53.1
51.5
53.4
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
62.0
US Eurozone Japan China Brazil
Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI's)
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18
13
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKEarnings growth has been strong, while the market is starting to price in slowing earnings growth in the months ahead.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
40
60
80
100
120
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160
180
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Apr-95
Apr-97
Apr-99
Apr-01
Apr-03
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
Apr-15
Apr-17
S&P 500 Index (LHS) and Forward EPS (RHS)
SPX Index Price Fwd EPS
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Apr-95
Apr-97
Apr-99
Apr-01
Apr-03
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Apr-11
Apr-13
Apr-15
Apr-17
S&P 500 Index (LHS) and Forward P/E (RHS)
SPX Index Price Fwd P/E Ratio
14
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKThe path of interest rates and inflation is now the key indicator for markets going forward.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-62
Jan-66
Jan-70
Jan-74
Jan-78
Jan-82
Jan-86
Jan-90
Jan-94
Jan-98
Jan-02
Jan-06
Jan-10
Jan-14
Jan-18
S&P 500 Earnings Yield - US 10yr Bond Yield(%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
US Federal Funds Rate(%)
15
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKUS$50 billion in reciprocal tariffs are tiny relative to the US$19.7tr US economy and the $13tr Chinese economy. Goods on which tariffs will be levied represent 0.3% of US GDP and 0.4% of China GDP.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
0
5
10
15
20
US GDP China Tariffs
USD
trill
ions
US GDP relative to Chinese Tariffs
0
5
10
15
China GDP US Tariffs
USD
trill
ions
Chinese GDP relative to US Tariffs
16
GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOKValuations are elevated but by no means euphoric, particularly outside the US.
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Data
IInnddeexx PP//EE RRaattiioo DDiivviiddeenndd YYiieelldd
22001177 22001188 22001199 22001177 22001188 22001199
US S&P 500 Index 22.5 16.6 15.0 1.9% 2.1% 2.2%European Stoxx 600 Index 20.8 14.3 13.2 3.2% 3.7% 3.9%UK FTSE 100 Index 22.9 13.4 12.7 4.0% 4.5% 4.6%Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 13.9 11.5 10.5 3.4% 3.6% 3.8%Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 9.2 7.8 7.1 3.6% 4.1% 4.5%Brazil Ibovespa Index 18.9 12.6 11.2 2.5% 3.3% 4.0%Nikkei 225 Index 19.5 15.4 13.5 1.6% 2.0% 2.2%S&P ASX 200 Index 18.0 15.4 14.6 4.2% 4.6% 4.8%
MUNRO GLOBAL GROWTH FUND KEY THEME 2018: DIGITAL ENTERPRISE
Car of the Future
Video Games
Wealth Effects
E-Commerce
Emerging Consumer
Outdoor Active
Food Revolution
Digital Payments
Internet Disruption
Digital Enterprise
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
18
Munro Partners has 22 “Areas of Interest” which are parts of the market that the investment team has highlighted as areas of secular growth, the below graphic highlights key ‘AoI’ by Gross weighting.
MGGF INVESTMENTS BY THEME
The Positioning of the Munro Global Growth Fund by ‘AoI’ (Updated 31 Mar 2018)
No. of Holdings
Indicative Position
6
5
3
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
Areas of Interest (AoI)
19
CASE STUDY 6: THE DIGITAL ENTERPRISE
AoI WinnersSub - Trends
Enterprises and Small-Medium sized Businesses are in the process of going through a digital transformation to ensure they stay at the forefront of their industry and remain relevant. A December 2016 Harvard Business Review survey found that nearly three-quarters of non-digital companies believe that their industry will be disrupted by digital technologies in the future.
THE DIGITAL ENTERPRISE
SOFTWARE-AS-A-SERVICE
INFRASTRUCTURE-AS-A-SERVICE
CYBER SECURITY
IT SERVICES/CONSULTING
INCUMBENT LOSERS
AUTOMATION
20
The IT market is a large addressable market at ~$2.1 Trillion. IT spending is likely to grow in 2018 with tax cuts freeing up more dollars to fund big strategic investments in technology. Within IT budgets, software is taking share, with deflation in hardware freeing up capital. Within software, the shift to the cloud continues to see SaaS taking market share.
“SaaS IS EATING THE WORLD”
Software is expected to outgrow other major categories of technology spend over the coming years
Software , 14% Software , 16% Software , 19%
45% 44%45%
8% 8%7%
33% 32% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2017e 2021e
% o
f Wor
ldw
ide
IT S
pend
PCs, Printers, Tablets, and Mobile Phones Servers, Networking, and Storage HW
IT Services Software
SaaS taking share from Traditional Software Applications, with penetration currently at 32% and is expected to grow to over 40%.
$154 $170
$189
$210
$234
$258
$284
$38 $48
$60 $73
$87 $101
$117
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$ in
Bill
ions
Total Application Software Market Total SaaS Market
Source: Gartner, UBS Analysis Source: Gartner, UBS
21
KEY STOCK IDEA: SERVICENOW (LONG)ServiceNow (NOW) is a provider of cloud-based service management and business management solutions. It leverages a service-orientated workflow platform to provide out-of-the box apps, alongside custom development tools, to manage and automate internal processes.
Key Stock Service Now Key Details Market Cap: US$24.9bn
Listed: US
Revenue 2017e: US$1.9bn
QualitativeTests
Growth: The Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) market is forecast to
grow at an 18%+ CAGR over the next 4yrs. We expect NOW to
beat this given they are taking market share as they have
become the standard in the IT Service Management (ITSM). Their
non-ITSM revenue is growing even faster than their core
business.
Economic Leverage: NOW has a growth framework to 2020,
where they will look to grow operating margins by 2-3ppts for
high revenue growth (35%+), 3-4ppts for 30-35% revenue growth
and 4-5ppts for <30% growth.
Sustainability: The wider TAM that NOW is targeting is ~$80bn
so there is a long runway ahead.
Control: The founder is on the board, but there is no controlling
shareholder.
Customer Perception: NOW is the standard in IT Services
Management, renewal rates are very high and they are closing in
on 50% penetration of the Global 2000 companies as customers.
QuantitativeTests
Earnings upside: US tax reform provides a major fillip for IT
spending across corporate America, providing a good backdrop
for revenue acceleration.
Multiple upside: Given the profitability metrics and revenue
growth, the EV/FCF multiple could hold at just above 30x in 2020,
which is were it is today for 2018.
Catalysts / Sizing: Results, product launches.
Outcome Stock discovered: January 2018. Source: Munro Partners
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THANK YOU
Munro PartnersLevel 19
80 Collins StreetMelbourne VIC 3000
+ 61 3 9290 0900www.munropartners.com.au