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8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 132
Measurement and Verification Using Energy
Lia Webster Senior Engineer
PECI
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 232
Presentation Overview
Why are we doing MampVLEED Points
MampV Basics
Guidelines
Basic conceptsCalibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 332
Motivation for MampV
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432
Drivers for MampV
bull Ensure energy performance
ndash Validate and improve design
ndash Identify problems improvements
bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts
ndash Utility programs
ndash Emission trading
ndash Energy budgets
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532
Actual vs Predicted Energy
From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED
for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632
LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5
Intent
To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time
Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan
ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III
References
bull IPMVP Vol III
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732
LEED
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 232
Presentation Overview
Why are we doing MampVLEED Points
MampV Basics
Guidelines
Basic conceptsCalibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 332
Motivation for MampV
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432
Drivers for MampV
bull Ensure energy performance
ndash Validate and improve design
ndash Identify problems improvements
bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts
ndash Utility programs
ndash Emission trading
ndash Energy budgets
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532
Actual vs Predicted Energy
From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED
for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632
LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5
Intent
To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time
Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan
ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III
References
bull IPMVP Vol III
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732
LEED
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 332
Motivation for MampV
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432
Drivers for MampV
bull Ensure energy performance
ndash Validate and improve design
ndash Identify problems improvements
bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts
ndash Utility programs
ndash Emission trading
ndash Energy budgets
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532
Actual vs Predicted Energy
From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED
for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632
LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5
Intent
To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time
Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan
ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III
References
bull IPMVP Vol III
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732
LEED
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 432
Drivers for MampV
bull Ensure energy performance
ndash Validate and improve design
ndash Identify problems improvements
bull Basis for payments ndash Performance contracts
ndash Utility programs
ndash Emission trading
ndash Energy budgets
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532
Actual vs Predicted Energy
From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED
for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632
LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5
Intent
To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time
Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan
ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III
References
bull IPMVP Vol III
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732
LEED
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 532
Actual vs Predicted Energy
From NBIUSGBC ldquoEnergy Performance of LEED
for New Construction Buildingsrdquo March 2008
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632
LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5
Intent
To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time
Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan
ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III
References
bull IPMVP Vol III
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732
LEED
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 632
LEED NC 2009 MampVCredit EA 5
Intent
To provide for the ongoing accountabilityof energy consumption over time
Requirements bull Implement an MampV Plan
ndash Option B or Option D method 2 Vol III
References
bull IPMVP Vol III
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732
LEED
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 732
LEED
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 832
Modeling and LEED NC2009bull EA-1 Optimize Energy Performance
ndash ASHRAE 901-2007 Appendix Gbull EA-5 Measurement and Verification
ndash
bull Develop and implement MampV Plan
ndash Option 1 IPMVP Option D Method 2 or-
ndash Option 2 IPMVP Option B
raquo Vol III 2003bull MampV period is 1 year post-occupancy
bull Plan for corrective action
ndash 52 MampV Tenant Submetering
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 932
New for LEED 2012bull Baseline updated
ndash ASHRAE 901-2010bull Performance Section is new
ndash
ndash Advanced Water Metering and Reporting
ndash Reconcile Design and Actual EnergyPerformance
bull More likely to meet intent ndash To provide for the ongoing accountability of energy
consumption over time
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1032
MampV Basics
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1132
MampV Guidelines
983111983157983145983140983141983148983145983150983141 Organization
International PerformanceMeasurement and VerificationProtocol (IPMVP)
EVO Worldhttpwwwevo-worldorg
FEMP MampV Guidelines Version 30 US DOE
ncingsuperespcs_measguidehtml
ASHRAE Guideline 14 ndash 2002 ASHRAEhttpwwwashraeorg
CCCndash Guidelines for Verifying
Existing Building CommissioningProject Savings
California Commissioning Collaborativehttpresourcescacxorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1232
International Performance
Measurement and VerificationProtocol
Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) wwwevo-worldorg
IPMVPFourth Edition 2007First edition (NEMVP) 1996
Presents a framework and defines terms used in determinin
lsquosavingsrsquo
Specifies the topics to be addressed in an MampV Plan for a
specific project
Allows flexibility in creating MampV Plans while adhering to the
principles of accurate complete conservativeconsistent relevant and transparent
Four MampV approaches
ldquoAdherencerdquo with IPMVP
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1332
IPMVPVolumes
bull IPMVP Vol I 2007- Concepts and Options forDetermining Energy and Water Savings
bull IPMVP Vol II 2001 - Concepts and Practices forIm roved Indoor Environmental ualit
bull IPMVP Vol III - Applications
ndashPart I Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in New Construction 2006
ndashPart II Concepts and Practices for Determining EnergySavings in Renewable Energy TechnologiesApplications 2003
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1432
MampV Options983113983120983117983126983120 983119983152983156983145983151983150 Description
Option A ndash Retrofit IsolationKey Parameter Measurement Field measurements of keyperformance parameters
Option B ndash Retrofit Isolation All Field measurement of energy use
Option C ndash Whole Facility Analysis of utility meter data
Option D ndash Calibrated
Simulation
Simulation of whole building
energy use calibrated tomeasured energy data
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1532
Options A and B vsOptions C and D
Options A and B are retrofit-
isolation methods
Options C and D are whole-facility methods
15
measurement boundary isdrawn
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1632
ASHRAE Guideline 14 -2002
Measurement of Energy and Demand
Savings
3 methods similar to IPMVP options B C and
1 Whole-building metering
bull Performance or Prescriptive paths
2 Retrofit isolation metering
3 Whole-building calibrated simulation
Compliance paths uncertainty lt= 50 at 68confidence level
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1732
IPMVP Basic Equation
The Basic Savings Equation
Baseline Period energy
- Reporting Period energy
+- Routine and Non-Routing Adjustments
Ref IPMVP Volume I 2007 Chapter 41
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1832
AdjustmentsWe adjust baseline and reporting period energy use to
the same set of conditions
bull Routine Adjustments ndash Expected based onindependent variables such as weather
bull Non-Routine Adjustment ndash Changes to static factorsnot expected to change
Baseline Period Reporting Period
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 1932
A Hypothetical Baseline
1000000
Baseline + Adjustments
250000
500000
750000
E n e r g y
Baseline Period Reporting Period
Metered Energy
Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2032
Calibrated Simulation
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2132
Option B Subsystem Model
FromCCC Guidelines for Verifying Existing Building Commissioning Project Savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2232
IPMVP Option D ndash
Calibrated Simulation
IPMVP Vol III
bull Method 2 Metered Post-installEnergy Use ndash Modeled Baseline
bull Method 1 Modeled Post-Install EnergyUse ndash Modeled Baseline Energy Use
ndash Not allowed by LEED
NOTE Vol III is Subset to IPMVP Vol I
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2332
Avoided or Normalized
IPMVP 2007
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2432
MampV Procedure
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2532
Executing the MampV Planbull Modeler
ndash Create model
ndash Adjust post-install model to sub-metered data
ndash Calibrate post-install model to utility amp weather data
ndash Create modify baseline models
bull Owner Facility Manager ndash Ensure metering specified and installed
ndash Assist with data collectionbull MampV Agent
ndash Design MampV approach
ndash Define baseline
ndash One-year MampV period ndash Set up trends and make measurements
ndash Perform energy savings calculations
bull Cx Agent
ndash Perform operational verification
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2632
Notable Challengesbull Create custom weather files
bull Align sub-metered data ndash Universal Translator httputonlineorgcms
bull pp y ng a us men s o ase ne mo ebull Ensure value to owner
ndash Useful Sub-metering
ndash Operational verification
ndash Establish expected performance
ndash Not academic exercise
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2732
Calibrate the model
bull Revise modeling assumptions
ndash Update weather data
ndash Compare with measurements
ndash Correct Wizard defaults other adjustments
Path to Net ZeroMonitoring amp Reporting Applications Guide
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2832
Calibrate the modelbull Compare predicted energy use with actual
ndash Graphic comparisons of output with data
ndash Verify calibration criteria are met
bull Identify possible sources and solutions
ndash er orm sens v y ana ys s
Building Level Calibration Compare Model to Actual
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Jan-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04
T h e r m s o r k W
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
k W h
Therms
Therms DOE2kW
kW DOE2
kWh
kWh DOE2
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 2932
Weather DataSource Data type Link
NREL energy plus hourly
httpwwweereenergygovbuildingsen
ergypluscfmweatherdataweather_requestcfm
NOAA hourlyhttplwfncdcnoaagovoaclimateclimatedatahtmlasosminutedata
httpwwwcpcnoaagovproductsanaly
s s_mon or ng c us egree_ ays
Weather Bank hourlyhttpwwwweatherbankcomhistorical-weather-archivehtml
WeatherUnderground hourly httpwwwwundergroundcom
Weather Depot degree dayhttpwwwweatherdatadepotcomddasp
WA httpwwwclimatewashingtonedu
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3032
And Evaluate ResultsCalibration Criteria
bull Mean Bias Error [MBE]
ndash How good is prediction prone to cancellation errors
ndash MBEinterval=(Simulated-Measured)(Measured)
bull Coefficient of variation of the root-mean squared error[Cv(RMSE)]
ndash Standard deviation of the error indicates overall uncertainty in
prediction
30
Data Type Indices FEMP 30Criteria
FEMP 22 ASHRAEG14
Monthly MBE +- 5 +- 7 +- 5
Cv(RMSE) +- 10 +- 15 +- 15
Hourly MBE +- 10 +- 10 +- 10
Cv(RMSE) +- 30 +- 25 +- 30
also provides criteria for net determinationbias and uncertainty in overall savings
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3132
Calculate Savings
Evaluate energy use for each ECM if desired
Calculate savings for each scenario relative tobase case
Energy Use kWh
Alternative Lights Cooling Other Total Savings
Base Case 1500298 955263 2447979 4903540 -
Efficient Lighting 1125240 860062 2365638 4350940 552600
Efficient Chiller 1500298 788681 2426812 4715791 187749
Chiller amp Lighting 1125240 708933 2346427 4180600 722940
31
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg
8122019 MV Simulation May2011 Forum1
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullmv-simulation-may2011-forum1 3232
Thank you
Lia Websterlwebsterpeciorg