National Conference on Rural Public and Intercity Transportation

October 21, 2008

Findings of Initial Tasks(general agreement)

Need = number of persons likely to require service

Demand = Use of service at given level of quality and cost

Both are required; need may be more important to build support

It may be more useful to forecast demand related to changes from a base condition

Findings of Initial Tasks(some disagreement)

Maintain “program/non-program” distinction

Quality of service may not be an essential factor

Some areas want models to forecast commuter travel to urban centers

Some want models to include fare policies

Need(Potential Approaches)

Number of persons in key population segments (elderly, low income, with disabilities, in social service program)

Maximum or 85th percentile per capita use for peer systems (Minnesota approach)

Mobility Gap based on ACS

Demand(Possible approaches)

Default rates based on:National experienceState experienceNearby systems

Peer systemsFull demand modelMarket based methods

Data Sources• Demographic data – ACS (and PUMS)

– will be available at the tract level– only source for disability data

• National Household Travel Survey – valid data only for large geographic areas

• Rural NTD– service areas not clearly identified– patronage by market not specified– some questions about data quality– general public services only

Data Sources(continued)Public Transportation-Human Service

Coordination PlansDo not contain detailed dataOne product may be recommendations on data

collection to support need/demand analysisOperating agencies

Best source for detailed dataObtaining data requires substantial effort

Demand Frameworks Market based similar to B-3

• Keyed to demographic data with adjustment for service quality– Commuter to central city element added based

on Census– Program vs. Non-program stratification retained

• Little data available to develop improved model

• 2000 Census could provide data for commuter model

• Addresses only demand for Section 5311 funded services

• Rural NTD coupled with Census/ACS provides data

• Difficult to define “area served”• Depends on quality of NTD reporting• Permits analysis of regional variation

Possible Demand FrameworksMarket based – limited to public transportation

Possible Demand Frameworks Peer Group Forecast demand based on state experience

Models can be developed only for states having data Project report would describe process for

states to adoptCould be integrated with coordination plans

Need FrameworkBased on population segments

Mobility Gap by region

Demand Framework Service Stratified

Section 5311 recipients and similar systems based on Rural NTD

Program (sponsored) trips based on B-3Small city fixed route based analysis of

trips/capita vs. service/capitaCommuters to urban centers based on

Census Journey-to-work

Use of Methodology(User comments sought)

How will you use this methodology?

What problems would you have with the proposed approach?

Model Structure(User comments sought)

Is the distinction between program (sponsored-trips) and non-program trips useful?

What are types of program trips should be addressed?

B-3 categories:Developmental Services

Mental Health Services

Group Home Nursing Home

Headstart Senior Nutrition

Homeless Shelter Workshop

Job Training

Model Structure(user comments sought)

Are there key markets we are omitting?

Are the data sources we have overlooked?

Presentation Formats(user comment sought)

Workbook – as for Project B-3Detailed report explaining methodologyExcel spreadsheetOn-line application