MODELING OF INDIA’s

NATIONAL POWER GRIDECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM

COORDINATED EXPANSIONS

2008-2028

PURDUE LONG-TERM

TRADING & CAPACITY EXPANSION MODEL

Generation & Transmission

22 Node Model

DATA INPUTS

& RESULTS

Brian H. Bowen

Devendra Canchi

Energy Center at Discovery Park

Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA

Em: bhbowen@purdue.edu

August 12, 2008

Re: Paper “Options for Strengthening India’s National Power Grid Using

the Purdue Long-Term Least Cost, Generation and Transmission Model”

Brian H. Bowen, Devendra Canchi, Paul V. Preckel, F.T. Sparrow

IEEE Power India Conference, New Delhi, India, October 12-15, 2008

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DATA INPUTS

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Natural Gas Imports (Thousand Tons)

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Source: Ranju Sarkar , “The Pipeline Row” Business World 10 Nov, 2003

http://www.businessworldindia.com/Nov1003/indepth03.asp

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Source: Central Electricity Authority, Govt. of India

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Note: The above grid was derived from Transmission Maps

(kV) published by various Regional Power Committees, after

making several suitable assumptions

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Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

9

2008 Existing Generation Capacity

Source: Central Electricity Authority of India (2006), "Appendix A,B &C", General Review

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

10

2008 EXISTING GENERATING CAPACITY

& ELECTRICITY DEMAND AT NODES

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Historic growth ≈ 4%

Forecast growth ≈ 8%

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Sources

GDP Projection: Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, “Dreaming with BRICs: the path to 2050”

Global Economics Paper No 99, Goldmann Sachs, 1st October 2003.

Electricity Demand Projection: Central Electricity Authority, Govt. of India, 16th Electric Power Survey, 2001.

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Coal Entitlement (2005-06)

Sources: Coal India Ltd., “Information On Consumer wise Coal Supplies”.

http://www.coalindia.nic.in/allocation.htm

India’s Coal Companies

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Source: Coal India Limited http://www.coalindia.nic.in/allocation.htm

Assumption: The Coal used in power plants is assumed to be

of calorific value between 3360 and 4200 kilocalories per kilogram

Sources: Regulated Prices as of Dec 12, 2007, Coal India Ltd.

http://www.coalindia.nic.in/pricing.htm

Estimated Cost of Coal at the Power Plant

Price of Coal (USD/Ton)

Cost of Coal at Power Plants

Notes: Cost of Coal is estimated based on the distance of

the node from coal mines and the current allocation profile

(see slide 8 and 9).

Source of Map: Location of Subsidiaries, Coal India Ltd.

http://www.coalindia.nic.in/about7.htm

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Domestic Gas Price Since 1999

Fuel Price Comparisons

Source: CRiSi Research

“Impact of June 2006 Natural Gas Price Hike”, July 2006

Source: CRiSi Research

“Impact of June 2006 Natural Gas Price Hike”, July 2006

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Performance Data for Coal Powered Power Plants

Source: Central Electricity Authority of India, “General Review 2006”

Source: Central Electricity Authority, “Review of Performance of Thermal Power

Stations 2005-2006”.

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Summary of Existing Installed Power Capacity (MW)

Source: Central Electricity Authority of India , “General Review 2006”

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Existing & Potential Hydro-Power

Sources:

Existing Capacity: Central Electricity Authority (2006) “General Review”

Hydro Potential: Central Electricity Authority (2002), "Preliminary Ranking Study of

Hydro Electric Schemes“

Note: The Annual MWh/Year is at 60% Load Factor

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Existing Inter-State Transmission Capacity (MW)(Purdue Approximations)

Sources: Northern Regional Power Committee, Western Regional Power Committee, Southern

Regional Power Committee, Eastern Regional Power Committee, North-Eastern Regional Power

Committee

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

22

Demonstration Scenarios for the India National Model

India’s 11th Expansion Plan Summary, 2007-2013

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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22 NODE MODEL RESULTS

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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RESULTS

Total New Transmission Expansion, 2008-2028 (MW)

Summary of Generation Expansions, 2008-2028

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Penalty cost of Unmet Demand ($5 Million/MW) is not included.

BENEFITS OF FREE TRADE

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India National Grid – LINE LOSSES

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #1

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #1

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #1

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #2

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #2

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #2

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #3

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #3

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #3

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #4

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #4

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Results – Scenario #4

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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RESULTS – UNMET DEMAND

76,804 MW x $5 Million/MW = $ 384 Billion

Scenario 1, Unmet Demand 2008-2028

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Source: Devendra Canchi, ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION IN INDIA OPTIMIZING

INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH, Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University,

Global Partnerships Program Committee Meeting, June 29, 2007

10 Year Regional Model, 2007-2017

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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UNMET MW

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

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Relaxed Government 11th Plan

5% & 15% Reserve Margins

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

48

Relaxation of Government 11th Plan

Energy Center at Discovery Park, Purdue University

India’s National Power Grid Project

Scenario, 2008-2028 Total Cost

(Million USD)

1-NT-WithGovPlan-4%Gr-15%Res $320,060 M

1B-NT-NoGovPlan-4%Gr-15%Res $264,761 M

1C-NT-NoGovPlan-4%Gr-5%Res $264,106 M

Note: NT=No Trade, Gr=Demand Growth, Res=Reserve Margin