National Scrapie Eradication April 2014 Monthly Report

National Scrapie Eradication Program

December 2014 Monthly ReportFiscal Year 2015

U.S. Department of AgricultureAnimal and Plant Health Inspection Service

Veterinary Services

Surveillance, Response and Preparedness Services

Sheep and Goat Health Program

January 15, 2014

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A Note on Navigation

INTRODUCTION - Program Summary

At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull black face sheep found positive at slaughter was 0.02 percent (Chart 1). This measure decreased by 51 percent compared to FY 2013 and 98 percent compared to FY 2003.

Eight source flocks (including 2 goat herds) and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2013. Three source flocks and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2014 (Chart 2), a decrease of 45 percent. Two source flocks have been designated in FY 2015.

At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color* was 0.019 percent (Chart 3). This measure increased by 31 percent compared to FY 2013 and decreased 87 percent compared to FY 2003.

In November 2014, the first positive goat found through RSSS. Chart 3a was added to the December 2014 report to show the percent positive goats at slaughter since 2011 .

* See slide 4 for an explanation of adjusted weights.

Introduction - Program Summary

INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 1)

Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS)

RSSS started April 1, 2003. It is a targeted slaughter surveillance program which is designed to identify infected flocks. Samples have been collected from 451,240 animals since April 1, 2003. There have been 476 NVSL confirmed positive animals* (468 classical cases and 8 Nor98-like cases) since the beginning of RSSS. As of December 31, 2014, 7,502 samples have been collected in FY 2015, 6,010 from sheep and 1,492 from goats.

As of December 31, 2014, 1 black-faced sheep and 1 goat have has tested positive for scrapie; this is the first positive goat case found through RSSS. The weighted percentage of samples from sheep that have tested positive for each face color from FY 2003 through FY 2015 is depicted in Chart 3; percent positive goats are shown in Chart 3a. In November 2013, administrative units within APHIS Veterinary Services reorganized from 2 Regions to 6 Districts (Figure 1). The distribution of sheep and goat populations by District is depicted in Chart 4a. The number of animals collected for FY 2015 by District where collected is shown in Chart 4b. A monthly comparison of RSSS collections by fiscal year is displayed in Chart 5. Chart 6 is a retrospective 6-month rolling average of the percent positive, black-faced sheep sampled at RSSS collection sites.

* RSSS positives are reported based on collection date and may have been confirmed after December 31, 2014.** White, black and mottled face color sheep are weighted based on population. White faced sheep have the highest weight, so when

the uncommon white face positive sheep is found it will cause this statistic to increase. Goats and other face colored sheep are not included in this calculation.

Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1)Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1)

INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 2)

On-Farm Surveillance

Testing sheep and goats on-farm is an essential part of scrapie surveillance. It includes both regulatory testing of scrapie exposed and potentially exposed sheep and goats and testing sheep and goats on farm for routine surveillance. As the National Scrapie Eradication Program moves closer towards meeting the goal of identifying the last remaining cases of classical scrapie, finding and testing all sheep and goats meeting targeted sampling criteria is even more important.

As of December 31, 2014, 217 sheep and 105 goats have been tested on-farm for FY 2015. One clinical suspect sheep and 25 other sheep from the same flock have tested positive. The number of animals tested on-farm by month and by species for FY 2015 is shown in Chart 7.

Total Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing

As of December 31, 2014, 7,824 animals have been sampled for scrapie testing in FY 2015:• 7,502 RSSS samples and 322 on-farm samples (Chart 8); • Of which 6,227 were sheep and 1,597 were goats.

Distribution of sampling by type (RSSS or on-farm) and by species is shown in Chart 9.

Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 3)

State Sampling Minimums

The National Scrapie Eradication Program establishes annual sheep sampling minimums for each State, and tracks the States’ level of compliance with meeting these minimums. These State minimums were implemented in FY 2010 to ensure adequate geographical representation, so that APHIS can find the last remaining cases and document freedom from scrapie. State sampling minimums are established based on the population demographics of mature sheep in each State. Since FY 2011, the program has also proposed annual State sampling minimums for goats. The calculations used to derive the sampling minimums are described in the National Scrapie Surveillance Plan

The State sampling minimums for sheep and goats, and the total number of animals sampled by State of Animal ID, are listed in in the following slides:

District 1 Table 1 District 4 Table 4

District 2 Table 2 District 5 Table 5

District 3 Table 3 District 6 Table 6

Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

INTRODUCTION - Positive Cases and Infected/Source Flocks

Positive Scrapie Cases*

Through On-Farm surveillance, one clinical suspect sheep tested positive for scrapie in November. (Table 7 and Figure 2). The flock of origin was designated as a source flock. Since the designation, 25 additional sheep from the flock have tested positive for scrapie.

The first RSSS positive goat was reported in November 2014. This case increases the number of confirmed positive cases in goats since FY 2002 to 40 (Table 7 and Figure 3).

Infected and Source Flocks

As of December 31, 2014, there were 5 flocks with an open source status (Figure 4). Two new source flocks have been designated in FY 2015. (Figure 5) and one flock was released (Figure 6).New infected and source statuses from FY 1997 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 2.

* Samples collected between October 1, 2014 and December 31, 2014 and confirmed by January 15, 2014.

Cases and New Infected/Source Flocks

INTRODUCTION - Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

As of December 31, 2014, there were 452 flocks participating in the Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP). Statuses of these flocks were 176 export monitored, 18 export certified, and 258 select monitored flocks (Figure 6). SFCP open statuses by fiscal year from FY 2007 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 10.

The current status of participating flocks is available to the public on the SFCP Web Page.1

The current version of the SFCP standards was published June 20, 2013. A copy of the standards can be downloaded from APHIS’ SFCP Web Page.

1 Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status.

This report is based on information and test results available at the time of report generation. Numbers are subject to change due to later reporting of test results and updates in the database.

Introduction – Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

* Through December 31, 2014—Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from same flock. Mottled-and white-faced combined. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011).

(Chart 1)

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

M +

W

Bla

ck

% Pos '03

% Pos '04

% Pos '05

% Pos '06

% Pos '07

% Pos '08

% Pos '09

% Pos '10

% Pos '11

% Pos '12

% Pos '13

% Pos '14

% Pos '15

Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - By Face Color - Fiscal Year (2003 – 2015*)

* Through December 31, 2014.

(Chart 2)

Infected and Source Flocks New Statuses by Year - Fiscal Years 1997 to 2015*

0

50

100

150

200

Infected

Source

* Through December 31, 2014—Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from the same flock. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011).

(Chart 3)

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16%

% Pos '03

% Pos '04

% Pos '05

% Pos '06

% Pos '07

% Pos '08

% Pos '09

% Pos '10

% Pos '11

% Pos '12

% Pos '13

% Pos '14

% Pos '15

Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Weighted by Face Color

Fiscal Years 2003 to 2015*

(Chart 3a)0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1.0%

% Pos '11

% Pos '12

% Pos '13

% Pos '14

% Pos '15

Percent of RSSS Goat Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Fiscal Year (2011 – 2015*)

* Through December 31, 2014

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VI

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PR

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DECO

CA

AZAR

AK

AL

District One

District Two

District Three

District Four

District Five

District Six

(Figure 1)

Surveillance Preparedness and Response Services (SPRS) Districts

Total Sheep and Goat Populations by VS DistrictFY 2015*

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6**

(Chart 4a)

* Source: NASS Sheep and Goat January 31, 2014.

** Includes sheep and goats residing in the Navajo Nation.

Sheep

Goats

Total Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collectedby VS District Where Collected

FY 2015*

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

(Chart 4b)* Through December 31, 2014.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Sheep Goats

(Chart 5)

Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by MonthFiscal Years 2011 to 2015

As of December 31, 2014

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10* 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

FY 11

FY 12

FY 13

FY 14

FY 15

Month

* Surveillance numbers were significantly lower October 2013 compared to October in prior FYs because the furlough reduced the number of collection days.

* Through December 31, 2014. Includes only sheep with test results reported. Includes multiple positives from same flock.

(Chart 6)

Retrospective 6 Month Rolling Average of Percent Classical Scrapie Positive Black-Faced Cull Sheep Sampled at Slaughter*

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

% Positive

On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Month and Species - FY 2015*

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Goats

Sheep

Total

(Chart 7)* Through December 31, 2014.

Number of Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing by Quarter - FY 2015*

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

On-Farm Testing**

RSSS

(Chart 8)* Through December 31, 2014.** Includes all regulatory testing (necropsy and live-animal) and on-farm surveillance.

* Through December 31, 2014.(Chart 9)

RSSS and On-Farm Surveillance Testingby Species - FY 2015*

79%

21%

RSSS

Sheep Goats

74%

26%

On-Farm

Sheep Goats

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 1

(Table 1)

* As of December 31, 2014. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

WV

VT

VA

RI

PA

NY

NJ

NH

NC

ME

MD

DE

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Connecticut 5 27 3 4

Delaware 1 6 0 3

Maine 45 58 8 5

Maryland 33 110 6 92

Massachusetts 19 56 4 7

New Hampshire 34 40 2 4

New Jersey 6 76 1 10

New York 200 470 142 41

North Carolina 127 150 62 75

Pennsylvania 84 585 87 62

Rhode Island 8 9 0 1

Vermont 63 80 7 8

Virginia 141 530 53 59

West Virginia 137 220 11 24

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 2

(Table 2)

* As of December 31, 2014. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

TN

SC

GA

FL

AL

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Alabama 39 119 23 59

Florida 3 73 20 65

Georgia 29 104 40 68

South Carolina 47 62 68 49

Tennessee 345 230 61 141

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 3

(Table 3)

* As of December 31, 2014. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

WI

OH

MN

MI

KY

INIL

IA

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Illinois 184 360 76 125

Indiana 237 340 220 48

Iowa 291 589 44 349

Kentucky 186 310 151 84

Michigan 456 430 43 189

Minnesota 353 588 38 42

Ohio 462 587 132 426

Wisconsin 405 520 18 80

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 4

(Table 4)

* As of December 31, 2014. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

TX

OK

MS

LA

AR

MOTotal Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Arkansas 32 102 90 47

Louisiana 17 45 2 23

Mississippi 19 69 15 30

Missouri 166 530 233 105

Oklahoma 36 420 32 111

Texas 199 597 37 597

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 5

(Table 5)

* As of December 31, 2014. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

WY

SD

NE

NDMT

KS

ID

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Idaho 325 593 14 20

Kansas 85 390 21 43

Montana 564 593 27 13

Nebraska 75 540 23 23

North Dakota 250 410 6 4

South Dakota 731 594 17 10

Wyoming 843 595 20 8

WA

UT

OR

NV

NMHI

CO

CA

AZ

AK

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 6

(Table 6)

* As of December 31, 2014. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Alaska 10 5 0 1

Arizona 8 200 30 82

California 195 595 51 588

Colorado 484 593 92 243

Hawaii 26 89 4 12

Nevada 26 550 32 17

New Mexico 22 236 29 13

Oregon 216 590 111 42

Utah 333 594 10 15

Washington 67 340 60 209

(Table 7)

Scrapie Confirmed Cases in FY 2015As of December 31, 2014

State

Sheep Goats

RSSS On-Farm RSSS On-Farm

CO 0 0 1 0

ID 0 26 0 0

WI 1 0 0 0

TotalAll States

1 26 1 0

Scrapie Confirmed Cases FY 2015As of December 31, 2014

28

WY

WV

WI

1

WA

VT

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MA

LA

KYKS

IN

ID

26

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

1*CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

Type of

Scrapie

RSSS Field

Cases

Total

Classical 2 26 28

(Nor98-

like)

(0) (0) (0)

Total 2 26 28

VA

IL

(Figure 2)

* First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014

WY

WV

W

I

WA

1

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

5

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

6

ME

MD – 2

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

1

ID

IA*

7

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

3/1*CA

13

AZ

1 AR

AK

AL

(Figure 3)

Scrapie Cases in Goats FY 2002 – FY 2015 As of December 31, 2014

Type of

Scrapie

RSSS Field

Cases

Total

Classical 1 39 40

(Nor98-like) (0) (0) (0)

Total 1 39 40

* First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

1

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

1

ID

1

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

2CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

(Figure 4)

Open source flocks—5

Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open

Statuses - As of December 31, 2014

MD

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

1

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

1CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

(Figure 5)

New source flocks—2

New Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks

FY 2015 - As of December 31, 2014

MD

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KY-1KS

INIL

1

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

(Figure 6)

Flocks released—1

Released Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks

FY 2015 - As of December 31, 2014

Scrapie Flock Certification Program: Participating FlocksAs of December 31, 2014

Total Enrolled Flocks--452• Export Monitored—176• Export Certified—18• Selective Monitored—258

WY

6

WV

1

WI

20

WA

14

VA

3

UT

4

TX

0

TN-11

SD

6

SC

16

RI-2PA

47

OR

15

OK

6

OH

3

NY

5

NV

1

NM

3

NJ-11NE

6

ND

1

NC-14

MT

5

MS

12

MO

2

MN

6

MI

8

ME

23

MD-2

MA-8

LA

7

KY-13KS

5

IN

31

IL

7

ID

9

IA

6

HI

20

GA

17

FL

17

DE-0

CT-12

CO

1CA

8

AZ

0 AR

0

AK

1

AL

10

VT

18

NH-8

(Figure 7)

SFCP Participating FlocksFY 2007 to FY 2015*

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Export Certified

Export Monitored

Select Monitored

34

* As of December 31, 2014.Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status.

(Chart 10)