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Natural Gas Conveyanceand Restructuring
Barbara Mariner-Volpe
February 2001
Bangladesh Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
Scope of Presentation
• Transportation market
• Retail restructuring - international
• Information analysis tools
Overview of U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network
• There are more than 160 large natural gas pipeline systems in the U.S.• These systems represent over 200,000 miles of transmission lines and
over 100 trillion cubic feet per day of transport capacity.• There are more than 1,500 local distribution companies in the U.S. that
deliver gas directly to the consumer• There are over 3,000 natural gas producers, 500 of which account for 90
percent of natural gas reserves in the U.S.• There are over 1,500 compressor stations on the network• and 600+ Natural Gas Processing Plants• and 410 Underground Storage Facilities• and 100 Liquefied Natural Gas Storage (LNG) facilities.
U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Profile
• Interstate vs Intrastate Pipelines
• Gathering System --> Gas Processing Plant --> Mainline Pipeline System --> Underground Storage --> Local Distribution System
• Size of pipelines range from 16-42+ inches on mainlines, 2-16 inches for LDCs
• Hubs or Market Centers provide interconnections among pipelines
Natural Gas Market Centers Serve As Major Trading and Transshipment Points
California Energy Center
Golden Gate Center
PGT Center
Sumas Hub
Waha (Delphi) Hub
PG&E Waha Hub
Mojave Center
Western Center
Waha (Lone Star) Hub
Blanco Center
Katy (Western) Hub
Waha (TECO)Hub
Katy (TECO) Hub
Carthage Hub
Aqua Dulce Hub
Houston Hub
Buffalo Wallow Center
Mid-Continent Center
Egan Hub
Moss Bluff Hub
Henry Hub
Louisiana Center
Equitable Resources Hub
Chicago Center
Columbia Gas Center
Texaco Gulf Star Center
CNG/Sabine Center
Ellisburg-Leidy Center
New York Center
Iroquois Center
Perryville (NORAM) Center
Local Distribution Companies are the Connection Between Interstate Pipelines and End Users
Local Distribution Company Rates
• Represents the costs of moving gas from the "citygate" to the consumer
• Generally cost based rates, but performance based rates are seen.
• Depending on the state, transportation and merchant functions may be separated.
• The cost of gas is a simple pass-through to the consumer
Supply ReliabilitySupply Reliability
• Ownership of assets equated to control of supply
• Market system relies on diversification and
flexibility• alternate transportation routes• transportation and storage are both substitute and
complementary services• commercial arrangements
• Supplier performance / Supplier of last resort
Average Transmission and Distribution Costs Have Declined for Most End-Use Sectors
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1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
2000
Dol
lars
per
Tho
usan
d C
ubic
Fee
t
Residential
CommercialIndustrial
Electric Utility
Wellhead
Financial Transactions are no Longer Closely Tied to the Flow of the Commodity
Physical Flow of Natural Gas Remain Much the SamePhysical Flow of Natural Gas Remain Much the Same
More Market Participants Involved in Financial TransactionsMore Market Participants Involved in Financial Transactions
Transportation Commodity Bundled
= Transactions captured by current data collectors.= Transactions not captured by current data collectors.
Producers Pipelines LDC’s End Users
Producers(Wellhead Prices)
Pipelines
LDC’s
MarketersOff-SystemEnd Users
On-SystemEnd Users
Restructuring of Pipeline Services - Order 637
• Removed price cap on short-term capacity releases
• Encouraged differentiated peak and off-peak rates
• Requires parking and lending services as a way to
avoid imbalances
• Pipeline should minimize operational flow orders
• Revised rules of right of first refusal
Current Pipeline Policy Issues
• Negotiated rates and terms and
conditions of service
• Rate design
• Capacity turnback
• Mergers and affiliate relationships
To Obtain Transportation Services
Step 1. Reserve capacity (via contract) with the pipeline or a releaser of capacity
– Types of contracts:
• Long-term firm transportation (FT)
• Short-term firm service
• Interruptible (IT)
• Capacity release (firm or recall)
Step 2. Nominate to use capacity
Step 3. Confirmation of nomination by the pipeline company
Step 4. Gas flows are scheduled by the pipeline company
Capacity Turnback: Defined
Shipper action of reducing or returning of firm transportation capacity to the pipeline company at the expiration of the contract.
Shippers ReassessedTransportation Requirements in the
Late 1990’s
A p r Ju l Oc t Jan A p r Ju l Oc t Jan
0
20
40
60
80
1 00
Tri
llio
n B
tu p
er
Da
y
C o ntrac te d C a p ac ity
R el ea se d C a pa c ity H el d by R e p lace m e n t S hipp e rs
1997 19981996
Note: Data are for 27 Pipeline Companies.
Emerging Issues for Interstate Transportation Market
• Does the current formula for computing regulated rates send the ‘right’ market signals?
• How, when or will the pricing structure change from cost of service rates to market based rates?
• Shifting risk - capacity turnback
• Regulation v. Competition -- What’s the right balance?
• Encourage addition of capacity without excessive cross customer class subsidization
Market Changes Affected Physical System Utilization
Firm ContractedCapacity (100 TBtu/d)
ReleasedCapacity (20 TBtu/d)
UnsubscribedCapacity (27 TBtu/d)
Total
Capability(127 TBtu/d)
Uncommitted and Unusedby Firm Shippers
Capacity Used by IT
by Firm Shippers
Committed but Unusedby Firm Shippers
Available Capacity
Utilization
Released CapacityUsed by Firm Shippers
Firm Contracted CapacityUsed by Firm Shippers
Capacity
Estimated
Utilized
(80 TBtu/d)Capacity
(47 TBtu/d)
Released but Unused
Trends in Firm Transportation Contracts
• LDCs hold the bulk of contracted capacity
• Contract expirations are significant
• Shippers want flexibility and reliability
• In the aggregate total commitments have increased slightly
• However, pipeline construction has outpaced contracted capacity
• The average length and size of long-term contracts have decreased
• Market concentration varies by region
Most Firm Transportation Capacity is Held Under Long-term Contracts
Firm Transportation Capacity Under Contractat the Beginning of January Each Year
89.8 93.1 94.6
12.2 10.510.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1997 1998 1999
Cap
acit
y (T
Btu
/d)
Long-Term
Short-Term
Interruptible (Non-Firm) Service for Natural Gas
• Increases system load and utilization• Efficient use of pipeline facility• Price of interruptible (Non-Firm) service for natural gas
is typically heavily discounted because service is not guaranteed
• When heating load is light due to mild winter weather, interruptible service may not be interrupted. The service may “appear” to be firm.
Capacity Release
• Order 636 ordered pipelines to establish release programs (EBBs).
• Shippers are now able to “release” or resell their firm capacity rights.
• Referred to as the “secondary market” in pipeline capacity.
• Holders of firm capacity initiate the release and specify terms.
• Competes with interruptible transportation service offered by the pipeline.
• The rate structure in Order 636 increased the cost of reserving capacity.
Advantages of Using the Release Market
For the releasing shipper:
• Allows shippers to respond quickly to market changes.
• Includes flexible terms re: amount of capacity and duration of release.
• May set specific pricing terms, subject to regulated cap.
• May reserve the right to recall the capacity.
Advantages of Using the Release Market - Cont.
For the replacement shipper:
• Moderate lead time required
• Flexible terms re: duration of contract
• Ability to obtain capacity - even though the pipeline may be fully reserved
• Rates for released capacity are often heavily discounted
Drawbacks of the Capacity Release Market
• Coordination of multiple contracts can be difficult.
• Revenues may provide only a partial offset for the high cost of reserving capacity.
• Released capacity may be unavailable.
• Only limited price discovery is possible.
• Interruptible transportation may have competitive edge.
Average Utilization Rates into States Varied in 2000
=
= Less than 100 MMcf/d Capacity
Capacity (in Million Cubic Feet per Day)
9,0006,000
12,00015,000
03,000
Average Utilization(Flow into State)
=81 to 100%=71 to 80%=61 to 70%=51 to 60%=50% or Less
NortheastMidwestCentralWestern
Southwest
Southeast
As of Sept. 2000, Proposed Pipeline Expansions 2001-2003 (70 projects, 20 Bcf/d)
10 Projects - 1.2 Bcf/d 10 Projects - 2.7 Bcf/d 9 Projects - 3.8 Bcf/d21 Projects - 5.3 Bcf/d
13 Projects - 4.1 Bcf/d
7 Projects - 2.4 Bcf/d
Algonquin Gas Trans (ALGN)Brooklyn Union Gas (BRKL)CNG Trans Corp (CNGT)Columbia Gas Trans (CGTC)Eastern Shore Natural Gas (ESHR)EnergyNorth Natural Gas (ENNG)Granite State Gas (GRST)Iroquois Pipeline (IROQ)Maritimes\Northeast Pipeline (MNEP)
National Fuel Gas Dist (NAFD)National Fuel Gas Sup (NFGS)Northern Utilities (NUTL)Portland Natural Gas (PORT)St. Lawrence Gas (STLW)Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TENN)Texas Eastern Trans (TETC)Transcontinental Gas (TRAN)Vermont Gas (VERM)
CNGT
TETC TRAN
TENNCGTC
STLW
ENNGIROQ
GRST
BRKL
VERM
Interstate Pipeline Companies Serving the Northeast
Natural Gas Transportation Nomination Schedule
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AM
8:00
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9:00
AM
Natural Gas Begins to Flow
(9:00 am)
Shipper’s Last Opportunityto Submit Intraday Nomination
(4 hrs before gas flows)
Gas Day: 9:00 am to 9:00 am Central Clock Time
Shipper Receives Confirmationof Scheduled Quantities
(4:30 pm)
Shipper NominatesNext Day’s Gas
(11:30 am)
1 Day
E- business: Speed is Key
Auctioning pipeline capacity via the internet• Bids need to be made, offers accepted and contracts
finalized - QUICKLY
• Submit nominations, perform scheduling
• Facilitate communication - reduce costs of information and price discovery
• Key Question: Should on-line auctions be administered by a third party?
• Identify alternative routes
Retail Restructuring
Issues in Retail Restructuring
• Do the benefits of choice outweigh the cost?• Should all services be offered competitively? • How should services be priced?• “Obligation to serve.”• Who should pay for the transition costs?• Marketers and local distributors - a level playing
field?• Reliability• Business Standards
Restructuring of U. S. Retail Markets
• Residential and small commercial consumers are, to varying degrees by state, acquiring choice of supplier.
• Electric generators, industrial and large commercial customers have effectively had supply choice for a number of years.
Statewide unbundling - implementation phaseStatewide unbundling - active programs
Pilot programs/partial unbundlingNo unbundling - considering action
No unbundling
VTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC
Over Half of the States Have Residential Retail Restructuring Programs
About 22 Percent of Eligible About 22 Percent of Eligible Customers are ParticipatingCustomers are Participating
Retail Restructuring Varies Across the U.S. for Several Reasons
• States Act Independently of Each Other
• Political/Economic Objectives Differ
• Regulatory Structures Differ
• Market Size to Attract Energy Providers
Pros and Cons of Customer Choice
PROS:
• Increases competition
• Potential for customer cost savings
• Encourages new services
• Leads to greater market efficiency, as market signals are conveyed more directly
CONS:
• May result is reduced supply reliability
• Increased price volatility
• Customer burden - some don't want choice
• May reduce supply reliability
• May lead to higher prices
• Retail market may not be a "level playing field"
Retail Unbundling - May Include More than Supply Acquisition
Retail unbundling may evolve to include the following traditional distributor services:
• Storage
• Metering
• Balancing
• Standby service - "supplier of last resort"
Residential Customers Can Benefit From Effective Information Programs
Columbia Gas of Ohio Current Gas Plan $744.50
Columbia Energy Services(888)224-6622
Fixed at $.348 per Ccf one year $702.71
Commonwealth Energy(800)928-0636
a) 10% less than the total monthly Columbia Gas of Ohio bill
b) Fixed at $.335 per Ccf
one year
one year
$670.05
$668.96
ENRON(888)913-6766
20% lower than Columbia Gas of Ohio's expected gas cost
one year $679.20
FSG Energy Services(888)367-4493
a) Variable Rate
b) Fixed rate for Winter and Variable for Summer
6 months
6-12 months
$661.42
Can not determine
Miami Valley Resources(800)431-8723
a) Fixed at $.340 per Ccf
b) Variable Rate
one year
monthly
$693.22
Can not determine
Stand Energy Corp.(800)598-2046
Variable but no more than $.370 per Ccf one year $693.92
MARKETER MARKETER PRICE OPTIONS PRICE OPTIONS TERMS OF CONTRACT TERMS OF CONTRACT AVERAGE ANNUAL COST AVERAGE ANNUAL COST
DurationDuration
Canadian Regulators Expect the Following Developments in Canada
• Increased reliance on market solutions
• Competitive pipeline projects
• Pipeline capacity shifting to marketers
• Light-handed regulation
• Market-based tolls
• Continued growth in exports to the U.S.
European Natural Gas Markets• Gas service is often combined with other services - water, electricity,
telephone, cable
• Regulation is extensive and varies by country: from government legislation, public ownership, regulatory agencies and taxation
• Concession or franchise giving the service provider the exclusive right to operate in a specific area in return for the obligation to serve in that area.
• Prices generally set by the market value of competing fuels. In some cases the costs of providing the service are also determining factors.
• Distinction between transmission and distribution not always clear
• Current debate (and some steps toward) third party access
Similarities Between the U.S. and U.K. Gas Markets
• Heavy reliance on domestic sources of supply
• Open access (third party access) prevalent
• Federal regulations but private ownership throughout the gas chain
• Retail unbundling underway
The Following Policy Objectives are Incorporated to Varying degrees in
European Gas Markets:
• Economic efficiency
• Security of Supply
• Social Objectives
• Environmental and climate protection
The Reform Process in Europe – The Gas Directive
• Opens-up European gas markets, both within and across geographic boundaries
• Enable large gas consumers to select their supplier.
• Sets minimum levels, implementation is determined by each country
• To date on transmission access, but movement to open distribution is underway, but varies by country.
Unbundling of Gas Services in Europe
• Great Britain - retail choice is underway both at transmission and distribution level
• Germany - taking steps toward retail choice by abolishing exclusive concessions for gas service
• Italy, Austria, Switzerland - limited unbundling at the transmission level
• Spain - limited unbundling (third party access) is being implemented
• Ireland, Netherlands - moving toward unbundling
European Gas Markets• LDCs currently have limited choice of gas suppliers
• Most countries are dominated by one transmission company
• Demand is highly seasonal and access to storage facilities for third party providers is needed to successfully enter the market
• Residential sector accounts for the largest share of gas consumption (26%-45%)
• Current structure is based on exclusive arrangements between supplier and customer.
• Most pipelines are merchants
• Ownership of LDCs is mostly public, but private ownership is becoming more widespread
Incentives May Be Different in Public vs. Private Ownership of Transmission
or Distribution
• Private Ownership - may be interested in maximizing profits
• Public Ownership - may be interested in lowering consumer prices or, may be inclined to maximize profits in order to cross-subsidize other areas
• Alliances, affiliations and other corporate combinations can reduce risk and exposure to changing markets - also may be benefits, e.g. economies of scale in obtaining gas supplies.
International Energy Agency:Member Countries
Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, U.K., United States
International Energy AgencyGoals
• Energy diversity, efficiency, flexibility
• Environmentally acceptable
• Technology development and application
• Free and open trade, promote investment
• Responsive to energy emergencies
• Undistorted energy prices
Japanese Natural Gas Market
• Goals – Energy security
– Economic growth
– Environmental protection
• Hurdles to Market Expansion– Developing the network
– Reducing the cost of LNG
Japanese Natural Gas MarketCharacteristics
• Fragmented into many regional companies (245 but 3 dominate)
• Exclusive service areas (franchises)
• Virtually no third party access
• Little competition and market entry is difficult
• Large consumers can negotiate prices
Restructuring of Gas Market in Japan
• Moving toward partial retail liberalization (for both gas and electricity market)(petroleum market is decontrolled)
• Large customers can negotiate supply prices and terms
• Government is encouraging market flexibility and expansion (co-generation, trigeneration) as well as load balancing
• Encouraging market based pricing - moving to expand to more customers
Countries are Establishing Independent Regulatory Bodies as Part of
Restructuring
• Australia• Finland• Italy• Norway• Netherlands• Spain
• Sweden• U.K• U.S. • Germany• New Zealand
Features of Independent Regulatory Bodies
• Independence from regulated companies
• Legal mandate separating regulators and regulatory body from political control
• Organizational autonomy
• Obligations for transparency and accountability
Example of EIA Tools to Analyze the Transportation
Market
Examples of Analytic Tools EIA Uses In Analyzing Infrastructure Issues
• Deliver Model
• EIA Natural Gas Geographic
Information System (EIAGIS)
DELIVER Features
• Linear programming model
• Objective: minimize costs of supplying gas
• Demand is differentiated by customer class
• Explicit representation of pipeline capacity and production availability
• PC-based model
DELIVER Capabilities
• Examine issues related to system ability to meet demand on a state-by-state basis
• Scenario analysis potential: supply disruptions, severe weather, transportation disruptions, natural disasters
• Analyze pipeline and supply availability
EIA Natural Gas Geographic Information System
• EIAGIS-NG - geographic information system
(GIS) centered on the natural gas industry.
• EIAGIS-NG - being developed by DOE/EIA as an
analytical and tracking tool to expand our
capabilities to study an industry undergoing rapid
and significant changes.
EIAGIS• Includes Maps For:
– 53 Interstate Pipeline Systems– 45 Intrastate Pipelines and Local Distribution Companies
• Includes Point Locations for:– More than 1100 Compressor Stations– Over 7500 Delivery Points– Over 800 Receipt Points– Over 1000 Interstate Interconnections– 77 Proposed Storage Projects– 390 Existing Underground Storage Sites– 360 State Border Crossings– as well as for Electric Power Plants, Cogeneration Facilities– and other energy facilities.
Mapping Selection Menu
A mapping selection menu allows the user the flexibility to:
• Choose by pipeline or state
• Request specific types of points to map
• Alter the level of geographic detail desired
EIAGIS-NG Mapping
Upon display of the requested map the user may select from a number of options:
• Alter Map display, e.g., Zoom in/out.
• Identify (label) points according to type.
• Perform statistical summarization and graphing
• Execute and produce hardcopy reports of selected data
• Display information on selected point(s)
• More ...
Adding Data Points and Pipelines
Information Tool
Example
EIAGIS-NG MAPPING SYSTEM
Example of how the user may select on a particular point and
have information on it displayed.
Example shown isCompressor Station on the
Texas Eastern system.
EIAGIS-PPApplications
• Provide maps to management
• Identify specific infrastructure for FEMA’s damage estimates
• Visually perform emergency impact assessments
• Visually develop remedial plans
• Aid in analytical endeavors
The Lower 48 Pipeline System in DELIVER
A Major Pipeline Disruption Leads To Re-Direction of Pipeline Flows and Some
Delivery Curtailments
BLUE indicates States experiencing curtailments
RED designates pipeline corridors at maximum flow
Why Are Analysis Tools of Natural Gas Infrastructure Needed?
• Industry and others want to how natural gas marketing and transmission has been impacted by restructuring.
• Market participants must now make their own arrangements for shipping gas.
– Want to know about available transportation options– What services are available to them from whom.
• Pipelines are interested in capacity levels on existing routes on which they might propose expansions.
• Knowing the current infrastructure is necessary for planning for demand projections of 32 Tcf demand by 2020.
• Assessing impact of infrastructure bottlenecks and disruptions.
Examples of Infrastructure Analysis
• The capabilities of the various interstate pipeline systems that make up a large part of the U.S. natural gas pipeline network.
• Usage levels on these pipelines. To what degree has it changed since the start of the decade and why.
• Pipeline expansions - completed since 1990 and proposed through 2000. Driving forces?
• Factors that have had a major impact on how the natural gas pipeline network now operates, i.e. FERC Order 636, Market Centers, Electronic trading, etc.
Components of the Analysis of Infrastructure Adequacy
1.Production capabilities and the ability to move supplies onto the interstate network
2.Transmission of gas along the major natural gas transportation corridors
3.Deliverability into major natural gas end-use markets
Production Capabilities and the Ability To Move Supplies Onto The Interstate Network
• Identification of the major producing areas:
– Recent levels of development and production
– Expansion possibilities
• What interstate pipeline systems access the area?
• What are their capabilities (capacity) to receive supplies?– Indications of capacity constraint?
– Measures being taken (if any) to resolve the problem
• To what degree are storage and support facilities integrated?
Transmission of Gas Along The Major
Natural Gas Transportation Corridors• Major corridors delineated (e.g. within the U.S. and
Canada)• For each corridor
– Major expansions and new pipelines since 1990?– Identify pipeline systems that ply the corridor– Current capabilities and utilization levels– Indications of service bottlenecks – Amount and type of underground storage serving shippers – Market centers/hubs and their role within the corridor– Expansion possibilities
• For the network as a whole: Overall capacities/usage growth.
Deliverability Into Major Natural GasEnd-use Markets
• Major market areas examined
• For each market area:– Major expansions and new pipelines
– Identify pipeline systems that feed into the market
– Current capabilities and utilization levels
– Integration of underground and LNG storage deliverability
– How end-use customer usage shifts have influenced expansions and utilization of available capacity
– Expansion possibilities
• Comparison of recent growth among regions and why capacity into certain markets is expanding