ECONOMIC AND WORKFORCE
SITUATION REPORT
June 30, 2009
Employment Security Commission:
Dr. Betty McGrath, Director, Labor Market Information Division
Nelse Grundvig, Manager, Labor Market and Occupational Research
Other Labor Market Information Division staff
Rural Center:
Anne Bacon, Senior Director for Workforce Development
R.V. Rikard, Senior Associate for Research
Research Team
North Carolina Rural Counties
Definition of rural…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
What is the employment and unemployment situation?
Employment
N.C. Non-agricultural EmploymentAnnual Average 2000-2008
Source: ESC (CES) Note: Y Axis set to 3,700 Thousand
N.C. Non-agricultural EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Jan. 2008 - May 2009
Source: ESC (CES) Note: Y Axis set to 3700
Employment
N.C. Unemployment Annual Average 2000-2008
Source: ESC (LAUS)
Unemployment
N.C. UnemploymentJan. 2008 - May 2009 – Seasonally Adjusted
Source: ESC (LAUS)
Unemployment
Highest State Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted - May 2009
Rank State Rate
1 Michigan 14.1
2 Oregon 12.4
3/4 South Carolina 12.1
3/4 Rhode Island 12.1
5 California 11.5
6 Nevada 11.3
7 North Carolina 11.1
8 Ohio 10.8
9/10 Tennessee 10.7
9/10 District of Columbia 10.7
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 9.4% Source: ESC (BLS)
Unemployment
Unemployment
Unemployment Rates Seasonally Unadjusted May 2009
Source: ESC
Rural/Urban Unemployment Rates2000-2008
Unemployment
Source: ESC (LAUS)
Rural/Urban Unemployment RatesJanuary 2008 - May 2009
Unemployment
Source: ESC (LAUS)
People Receiving Food Stamps in N.C. April 2007- April 2009
Source: NC Division of Social Services
Impact
Number of ForeclosuresJanuary 2008 – May 2009
Source: N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts
Impact
What do we know about people filing for unemployment
insurance?
Initial Claims for Unemployment InsuranceJanuary 2008 - May 2009
Source: ESC
Unemployment Insurance
Continued Weeks for Unemployment Insurance
January 2008 – May 2009
Source: ESC
Unemployment Insurance
Individuals Exhausting “Regular” Unemployment Insurance
January 1990 – May 2009
Source: ESC
Unemployment Insurance
Who is a dislocated worker?
• Laid off due to no fault of own
• Definition for this presentation
Dislocated Workers
Geography of Dislocated WorkersJanuary 2009 - May 2009
Source: ESC
Dislocated Workers
Sex of Dislocated Workers January 2009 - May 2009
Source: ESC
Dislocated Workers
Age of Dislocated Workers January 2009 - May 2009
Source: ESC
Dislocated Workers
Race/Ethnicity of Dislocated Workers January 2009 - May 2009
Source: ESC
Dislocated Workers
Dislocated workers now vs. early 2000s:
• More urban than before, but still majority rural
• More white; no longer disproportionately black
• Larger majority male
Dislocated Workers
Yet to come – full impact of…
• Auto industry (supplier) layoffs
• Financial services layoffs
• Government job losses
• Budget crisis
Dislocated Workers
Government as Percent of Total Employment2000 – 2008
Source: ESC (CES)
Dislocated Workers
Previous recovery was slow,didn’t reach all
North Carolina Nonfarm EmploymentJanuary 1990 – May 2009
Recovery Challenges
Source: ESC (CES)
Recovery Challenges
North Carolina Manufacturing EmploymentJanuary 1990 – May 2009
Source: ESC (CES)
Poverty2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Recovery Challenges
Poverty2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Recovery Challenges
Re-employment slow
• 59.4% after one year
• 61.9% after two years
(2001 layoffs)
Source: ESC (MLS analysis for Gaining a Foothold)
Personal Recovery Challenges
New jobs pay less
• 78.2% of original wages after one year
• 80.5% after two years
(2001 layoffs)
Source: ESC (MLS analysis for Gaining a Foothold)
Personal Recovery Challenges
• Earlier recovery didn’t reach all
• This recession - whole different scale
• Worker dislocation now more widespread• Urban counties hit hard; rural counties hit
harder (some exceptions)
• More to come - key industries• Pain will continue long after economy
starts to turn around
Summary