8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

1/16

Negotiating RiceJapans Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Lisa Jrke

IRRI Division Seminar, 11 April 2014

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

2/16

How are international trade negotiations

and farmers livelihoods connected?

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

3/16

The Trans-Pacific Partnership

BruneiChileNew ZealandSingapore

United StatesAustraliaPeruVietnamMalaysiaMexico

CanadaJapan

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

4/16

Two-level games (Robert D. Putnam 1988)

Gentansystem of acreage control

Producer price support

High import tariffs (778% for rice)

High consumer prices

Rice production in Japan

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

5/16

Overaged farmers

Low farming incomes

Many part-time farmers

High land fragmentation

Rice production in Japan

Land ownership in hectares, 2010

2.0

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

6/16

How did Japan join the TPP?

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

7/16

Two-levelgames (Putnam 1988)

Negotiation processes taking place on two levels:

I International (negotiators)

II Domestic (President, political parties, business, interestgroups, public)

An agreement on level I must be ratified on level II.

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

8/16

International trade rounds pushing for more liberalisation in

agriculture (Uruguay and Doha rounds of the GATT/WTO)

Overall regional liberalisation and high-level trade agreements

(KORUS, etc.)

Rise of China and other economic powers in the region

Pressure from the US and Mexico (beef and citrus), as well as fromAustralia (dairy)

Level I: International trade dynamics

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

9/16

Why did Japan join the TPP?

Voting system tilted towards rural votes

farmer support from all parties

Influential agricultural cooperatives (JA)

Special interest politicians

But also strong business elite, powerful METI

Volatile public

Historically weak Prime Minister

Level II: Domestic politics in Japan

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

10/16

Why did Japan not join earlier?

November 2010 First statement by Naoto Kan aboutpreliminary consultations with TPP memberstates

November 2011 Renewed confirmation to hold

consultations by Yoshihiko Noda

March 2013 Final announcement of Japans

participation in the TPP by ShinzAbe

How did Japan join the TPP?

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

11/16

Naoto Kan

Strong resistance within the DPJ and

from the opposition

Unpopular after announcing a tax

reform and 3/11

Yoshihiko Noda

Sealed his political fate with the tax

reform

Domestic dynamics

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

12/16

ShinzAbe

Very stable minority in the Diet

High popularity withAbenomicspolicy

Less dependence on farmersvotes

Domestic dynamics

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

13/16

LostDecades

Low FTA coverage

Fear to fall behind economically compared to othereconomies in the region

Proactive Asia policy by US President Obama

Foreign pressure (gaiatsu)

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

14/16

So what makes the difference?

Political system

Other policy issues

Role of public support

Issue linkage

Foreign pressure

Preliminary conclusions

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

15/16

What does it mean for rice farmers?

Japanese agriculture needs to be modernised with or without the TPP

The TPP may necessitate agricultural reform as existing policies protecting

farmers will have to be changed

Butliberalisation does not automatically entail reform

8/12/2019 Negotiating Rice: Japan's Entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership

16/16