40-year national modeling process for energy and transportation systems

NETPLAN Studies and Solutions

Models, Data and Computation

Objective and NETPLAN description

Multi-sector

Parallelized using MPI (Message Passing Interface) and run parallel codes on Linux multi-core/ computer systems • Decomposition and parallelization of

LP: Bender’s and є-relaxation methods • Parallelization of NSGA

A software tool to perform systematic engineering evaluation to peer into

the future and appropriately guide legislative decision-making

What is the best mix of electricity, petroleum, and biofuels to supply our

automotive needs?

To what extent can electric high-speed rail reduce energy use and

transportation-related emissions while competing with air and highway?

Inform societal dialogue & political debate

National level Long-term Multi-objective

Gulf/Tx/Canadian Gas resources & storage

Gas network Coal 13-node and 62-node models

Petroleum

Freight network

Passenger network

Passenger high-speed rail

Fuel Network

Venkat Krishnan James McCalley Dionysios Aliprantis Arun Somani Gkritza Konstantina Lizhi Wang Robert Brown ECpE CCEE IMSE ME

http://www.ece.iastate.edu/research/netscore-21

Transportation Network Electric Sector

Cases Case Description Transmission Cost (Billion $)

A1 Mostly Renewable, Geothermal Light

Fixed 5013.12 B1 Expanded 4773.96

Difference 239.16

A2 All Renewable, Geothermal Light

Fixed 5517.83 B2 Expanded 5059.38

Difference 458.45

A3 All Renewable, No Geothermal

Fixed 5328.11 B3 Expanded 5053.70

Difference 274.41

A4 All Renewable, Geothermal Heavy

Fixed 5457.63 B4 Expanded 4965.48

Difference 492.15

Case description HSR Pen. (%)

Avg yrly CO2 emsns (MMT) Total Cost

($Trillions) Elctrc Pssngr Reference (Ref) 0 460 83 11.61

Ref w/ Travel Time Cost 2.2 463 83 11.63 Petroleum Price Increase (PP) 6.2 463 79 12.82 HSR Capacity Increase (CAP)

(260 to 520 passengers) 30.5 469 56 11.15

PP + CAP 83.1 481 9 11.06

Interdependencies

Computational Enhancement

The operational interdependencies between energy (fuel and electric) and transportation sector are modeled by: • Interconnection 1: The freight network imposes demand

for diesel fuel on the energy network. • Interconnections 1 and 2: The passenger network imposes

demand for gasoline fuel (regular and jet-fuel) and electricity on the energy network.

• Interconnections 3 and 4: The electric network imposes demand on the fuel network (e.g. coal), which consequently imposes demand on freight transportation.

Geographical characterization of fuel cost and capacities: • The availability and quality of coal differs geographically,

and so four varieties of coal production are modeled. • The gas imports, gas pipeline capacities and storage

capacities are characterized based on geography.

• DOE EIA 13-node model. • Ventyx 62-node model:

interties between balancing areas.

• Freight network: 95 bi-directional interstate arcs.

• Passenger network : 235-bidirectioanl arcs, includes long-distance interstate passenger travels.

NSGA parallelization

Multi-commodity multi-modal transportation sector

Cost and emission results

HSR investment sets in case CAP, very similar to US DoT projections

High Capacity Interregional Transmission 40-year cost benefit assessment using 13-node electric model

Case B1 40-year generation & transmission investment

National Transmission Overlay using 62-node electric model

Diversification of passenger transportation portfolio could provide: • Alternative mode choice for the passengers and community interconnection • Resilience or operational flexibility to the passenger transportation system • Reduction in transportation sector’s over-dependence on petroleum

Achieving desired emissions reduction while supplying low cost energy for electrical demand, transportation, and industrial processes requires long-term investment planning strategies such as above. Other major strategies investigated by NETPLAN include: • Development of Flex-fuel poly-generation (FFPG) conversion stations: FFPG utilize two or more input commodities (coal, biomass, natural gas) to

generate two or more products (transportation fuel, electricity, heat). FFPG deployment will enhance infrastructure resilience. • Natural gas in transportation: Recent decrease in prices is motivating high growth of natural gas combined cycle units in the electric sector. A

better long-term strategy, in terms of CO2 emissions and resource diversification, is to utilize this resource in the transportation sector.

Achieving tradeoff solutions that balance the conflicting objectives of minimizing cost and maximizing sustainability, resilience, and flexibility