New Implementing a reliability centred approach during wind turbine … · 2016. 8. 1. · 4...

Implementing a

reliability centred

approach during wind

turbine development

Hamburg, 20 February 2013

Bruce Valpy

© BVG Associates 2013

2/22

• Why focus on reliability

• Cost of energy

• Health and safety

• Reliability centred approach

• 10 steps to success

Contents

Justification

Reliability centred approach during wind turbine development

Introduction


• BAV add

Selected clients

BVG Associates

• Market analysis and business development

• Supply chain development

• Economic impact assessment

• Support to industrialisation

• Project implementation

• FIT project development (UK only)

• SCADA & condition monitoring

• O&M technical support

• Technical innovation & engineering analysis

• Support to investment in technology

• R&D programme management

• Design and engineering services

3/22

• Why focus on reliability

• Cost of energy

• Health and safety

• Reliability centred approach

• 10 steps to success

Contents

Justification


Introduction


• BAV add

Selected clients

BVG Associates

• Market analysis and business development

• Supply chain development

• Economic impact assessment

• Support to industrialisation

• Project implementation

• FIT project development (UK only)

• SCADA & condition monitoring

• O&M technical support

• Technical innovation & engineering analysis

• Support to investment in technology

• R&D programme management

• Design and engineering services

• Need to understand the past before talking about cost reduction in the future

• Between 2003 and 2010, CAPEX increased (blue bars)

• Much can be explained by change of site conditions

• Much of the rest can be explained by market conditions

• Due to increases in site wind speeds and use of larger turbines, LCOE decreased during period

despite CAPEX increase

• CAPEX stabilised 2010-12

Cost of energy Health warning


CAPEX has been going up, not down

4/22

4 Dimensional cost model: Time, types of wind farm site, turbine sizes, industry scenarios

6 Industry day-long workshops (in UK, DK, DE)

20 Deep industry interviews (4 hours +)

125 Industry individuals directly involved

215 Pages – available for download from our website

Methodology in numbers: technology work stream

Cost reduction pathways study

Overview

• 2011 UK Government Energy white paper:

• Central scenario 13GW by 2020

• Minded to support to 18GW if cost of energy

reduced – target £100/MWh

• The Crown Estate cost reduction pathways study established to

evidence what industry thinks could be done

• Supply chain, finance and technology work streams

= + +

• Published summer 2012

Context


Cost reduction pathways study: results

• Given right external conditions, industry

can meet target:

• Confidence in market size to beyond 2020

• Smooth and timely transition under EMR

• Planning consent timelines reliably met

• Clear and predictable offshore grid

regulatory framework

• Facilitation of new technology introduction

• To deliver, industry also needs to work together:

• Best practice, standardisation,

risk management, accessing new finance

5/22

Why focus on reliability The case for focus on wind turbine reliability

OPEX is already 1/3 of LCOE and growing


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

4-A

-11

8-D

-20

Co

ntr

ibution to

LC

OE

Wind farm development Turbine Support structure Array cablesInstallation OPEX Decommissioning

Source: BVG Associates

6/22


Most non-fixed OPEX is turbine-related


Turbine electrical,

34%

Hub and pitch

system, 20%

Gearbox and main

shaft, 11%

Generator, 8%

Blades, 4%

Array cable, 3%

Support structure,

3%Other

turbine,

16%

Other wind farm, 2%


7/22


Most OPEX is unplanned service – reactive or proactive


90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Win

d fa

rm a

vailab

ility

£k/M

W/y

r

Operating year

Operation and planned maintenance Unplanned service - proactiveUnplanned service - reactive OMS expenditure during waranty periodTotal OMS expenditure (forecast at FID) Wind farm availability


8/22


Summary


OPEX

~40% of LCOE

Operations

Unplanned Service

~75% of OPEX

Turbine

~90% of Service

Electrical Transmission

Foundation

Planned Maintenance

If...

• If turbines were 100% reliable, so just needed visits for

planned maintenance...

• OPEX down 68%

• Lifetime expenditure down 27%

• Lost energy down by 90%

• LCOE down by 30%

• Visits down 70%

• Accidents down by >80%

• Increased certainty would increase pool of investors

and hence decrease cost of capital

9/22

Lots good

Few components / systems tested thoroughly

Poor justification for component survival (beyond

calculations)

Main component exchange not designed in / tested

Not possible to easily replace wear parts

Poor / incomplete manuals and troubleshooting guides

Track record of unreliable systems / repeat faults

Training strategies not implemented

Site work records incomplete

SCADA report errors

Significant inefficiencies on site

Type Certificate (does not consider the above)


Where our experience comes from


Due diligence - experience

10/22

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=bp+logo&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Rtr2g-YVy7qc9M&tbnid=ULj4OqR0cUp8vM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=bp+logo&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Rtr2g-YVy7qc9M&tbnid=ULj4OqR0cUp8vM:&ved=&url=http%3A%2F%2Fkokomoperspective.com%2Fnews%2Fbp-sold-tainted-gasoline-in-kokomo%2Farticle_b28b77b2-f203-11e1-8f92-0019bb2963f4.html%3Fmode%3Dimage%26photo%3D0&ei=DWQkUbSdB8eSswavzICYBA&bvm=bv.42661473,d.Yms&psig=AFQjCNHpu5Rn4zC7LXD-dHnSP7MWa0iUIA&ust=1361425805656665&ei=ImQkUerzE4WItAa01YHICg&bvm=bv.42661473,d.Yms&psig=AFQjCNHpu5Rn4zC7LXD-dHnSP7MWa0iUIA&ust=1361425805656665

Reliability centred approach Important ingredients of reliability centred approach

1a. Reliability budget


Turbine MTBF* = 3 months

(90 days)

Rotor 365 days

Blade

900days

Hub Assembly 600 days

Blade bearing 3650 days

Pitch System 450 days

Other 3650 days

Nacelle 200 days

Drive Train MTBF = 700 days

Gearbox MTBF = 3650 days

Generator MTBF = 3650 days

Converter MTBF = 2000 days

Other MTBF = 2700 days

Yaw system MTBF = 900 days

Control system MTBF = 700 days

Auxiliary systems MTBF = 900 days

Tower & Transition Piece

300 days

10 Steps to success

1. Reliability and OPEX

budgets (and model)

* MTBF (large vessel intervention, small

vessel intervention & remote reset)

11/22


1b. Reliability and OPEX model


OMS strategy

• Failure response strategy

(MTBR)

• Weather capability

• Vessel-related, labour and

spares costs

Generic design site

conditions

• Distance to OMS port

• Range of other physical site

parameters

• Wind and wave climate

(inc. persistence data)

Availability

Energy- or time-based

OPEX

Taking into account lost revenue

Product design and

verification

Justification for MTBF data

based on:

• Operational experience

• Reliability analyses

• Sub-system and component

verification and testing +

10 Steps to success


budgets (and model)

MTBF

Three sets of MTBF data, self-

consistent down to sub-

system/component level*:

• Simple resets

• Small vessel interventions

• Large vessel interventions

+

12/22


2. ‘Rules of thumb’


• A ‘small boat’ intervention

costs average €15,000

• Worth spending €1k CAPEX if

can save €X OPEX per year

• Downtime costs average

€8k/day (€20k for windy day)

• FMEA – hard to do well,

balanced across range of

components

• Logic and probalistic FTA

• Six sigma

3. Component reliability reviews 10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)

3. Component reliability

reviews

13/22


4. Test and verification


10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews

14/22




10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews

15/22


5. Demonstration of maintenance procedures


10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews

5. Demonstration of

maintenance procedures

16/22


6. Joined up SCADA/control/CM


10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews

6.

Joined up SCADA/

control/CM

5. Demonstration of


Holistic

decisions

CMS Engineering

17/22


7. Feedback from site


10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews


6.

Joined up SCADA/

control/CM

5. Demonstration of


18/22


8. Useful, accurate data


10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews



6.

Joined up SCADA/

control/CM

5. Demonstration of


19/22


9. Fix first time approach


10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews




6.

Joined up SCADA/

control/CM

5. Demonstration of


20/22


10. Reliability champion


10 Steps to success



budgets (and model)



reviews

10. Reliability champion




6.

Joined up SCADA/

control/CM

5. Demonstration of


Bill Shankly, Liverpool Football Club

21/22

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Important ingredients of reliability centred approach

Beautiful, happy offshore wind farms...

22/22

... are born in messy places

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