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New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The Capital Markets Proprietary and Exclusive Swiss Re Capital Markets, November 2014
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Page 1: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The Capital Markets

Proprietary and Exclusive

Swiss Re Capital Markets, November 2014

Page 2: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

2

Risk Transfer Chain

Reinsurer

Capital Market Investors

Risks Insurer

Insured

Insured

Insured

Insured

Insured

Insured

Insured

Insured

… Insurer

Insurer

… …

Equity Investors

Investors in Asset

Managers (via trans-formation)

Page 3: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

"Alternative Capital" broadly refers to reinsurance/retro capacity provided by capital markets investors rather than via traditional reinsurance

Alternative Capital increased sharply since 2011 to USD 45 to USD 50 bn

Alternative Capital market share accounts for 11% globally and about 17% in the US, exceeding the 2007 level (post-Katrina)

Estimated Reinsurance Market Share (excl. Retro capacity)

Capital Markets Investors Participate in Insurance Risk via Equity Investments but also via Alternative Capital

3 Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets Corporation, a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA")..

Page 4: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

33%

67%

Backingreinsurers

Backinginsurers

Alternative Capital plays a significant role in the US Nat Cat and retro market, characterized by low entry barriers and relatively high margins

Alternative Capital only slowly expands outside the US, for following reasons:

– Ample traditional reinsurance capacity

– Reinsurers offer traditional reinsurance at very competitive price

– Lack of market loss indices

– Less reliable risk modelling capabilities

– Cannot offer reinstatements

70%

25%

5%

US cat

European cat

Other

Distribution by Segment and Peril

Alternative Capital is Largely Confined to Peak Risks

4 Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets

Page 5: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

Alternative Capital Accesses (Re)Insurance Markets with Four Major Types of Products

Cat Bond Industry Loss Warranty Side Car Collateralized Reinsurance

Risk – Return profile

Full spectrum of risk Mid- to higher position in the risk tower

Proportional reinsurance – with commission terms

Full spectrum of risk

Advantage (general)

Liquidity, varied regions & triggers, well structured

Industry based, simple to execute

Participate in upside and an alignment of interest. Tailored risk and return profile

Fully collateralized; similar coverage terms / setup to traditional reinsurance

Disadvantage (general)

Certain upfront cost, securities product, true and accurate disclosures

PCS and PERILS unable to create perfect industry loss numbers, basis risk; limited countries

Follow the fortunes, dependent on "trust", no preset return, very limited liquidity, commutation process can be cumbersome

Typically no reinstatement, very minimal leverage of capital, no secondary trading, low liquidity, no pre-set return, commutation process can be cumbersome

Investment characteristics

Suits a bond / fixed-income portfolio

Equity-like reinsurance based risk – return profile

Equity-like reinsurance based risk – return profile

Equity-like reinsurance based risk – return profile

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

[bn USD]

Sidecar ILW Collateralized RI ILS

Estimated Market Size

5 Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets

Page 6: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

Alternative Capital in Detail and Cat Bond Universe

6 Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets, (1) Outstanding bonds issued in prior years as of October 22 2014

Cat Bonds $22bn (44%)

ILWs $3bn (6%)

Collateralized $23bn (46%)

Sidecars $2bn (4%)

Alternative Capital Universe

Total ILS capacity being provided by the capital markets in varying formats is estimated around USD45 to 50bn

Cat Bonds have grown considerably in the past few years. The current outstanding notional amount represents a historical record for the product, and there has been little sign of a slowdown in issuance. Very broad investor base as any Qualified Institutional Buyer can invest in such products directly

Collateralized reinsurance encompasses nearly half of the alternative insurance market. This product has experienced growth in recent years, but is accessible, in general, by only dedicated funds

Sidecars and ILWs are other products mainly utilized by insurance and reinsurance companies

Cat Bond Growth (Newly Issued and Outstanding1

5.7

8.2

3 3.54.8 4.6

6.37.4

6.25

4.4

8.8

12.7 11.4 9 8.9

10.2

12.916.1

10.1

17

15.714.9

13.8 13.5

16.5

20.3

22.35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Issued Outstanding From Previous Years

Page 7: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

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7

Cat Bond Structure

SP(R)V

Return of Remaining Principal

Premium

Counterparty Contract

Collateral

Trust

Investors

Note Proceeds

Investment

Investments Investment Return

Interest Payment Sponsor

Event Payments

Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets

Page 8: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

Cat Bond Track Record of Innovation

8

Parametric trigger for Primary Insurance and

Reinsurance Companies

Investor Sophistication

Actual Loss Sustained for Personal Lines Primary Insurance Companies

Actual Loss Sustained for Personal and Commercial

Primary Insurance Companies

Actual Loss Sustained for Complex Commercial Lines

Primary Insurance Companies

Parametric trigger for Corporates

Key milestones:

First parametric based cat bond for corporate: 2006 (Dominion Resources)

Latest actual loss sustained / indemnity cat bond for complex commercial portfolio of primary insurance company: 2013 (AIG)

Risks other than nat cat securitized such as mortality / pandemics, event risk, etc.

Collateral shift from Total Return Swaps to Money Market Funds: 2009

1997 2005 1999. 2013

Securitization of World Cup Cancellation

2003 Oriental Trading Co. Tokio Marine, USAA FIFA Zurich AIG

Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets

Page 9: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

66%

46%44%

40%38%

45%

38%

30%

25%

13% 13%

5% 4% 2% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Perc

en

tag

e o

f O

uts

tan

din

g N

oti

on

al Exp

osed

by P

eri

l

62%

24%

7%

4%3%

Indemnity

Industry Index

Parametric

Combination

Other

9

Outstanding Cat Bonds by Peril

US Wind

US EQ

Non Peak

Outstanding Bonds by Trigger Type

Breakdown of Cat Bond Universe

Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets as of November 11, 2014 with percentages calculated based on notional amount

Page 10: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

40%

90%

140%

190%

240%

Jan

-02

Ju

l-0

2

Jan

-03

Ju

l-0

3

Jan

-04

Ju

l-0

4

Jan

-05

Ju

l-0

5

Jan

-06

Ju

l-0

6

Jan

-07

Ju

l-0

7

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Ju

l-1

1

Jan

-12

Ju

l-1

2

Jan

-13

Ju

l-1

3

Jan

-14

Ju

l-1

4

Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return

10

Relative Cat Bond Returns

Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets as of July, 2014

* Compound Annual Growth Rate since 1/1/2002 “Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return”, calculated by Swiss Re Capital Markets, is a market value-weighted basket of natural catastrophe bonds tracked by Swiss Re Capital Markets, calculated on a weekly basis; past performance is no guarantee of future results. Underlying data for Barclays Capital High Yield Index provided by Barclays Capital. Underlying data for “Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return” is based on indicative prices only

Performance from January 2002 – July 2014

Financial Crisis

Muteki Loss (JP EQ)

8.36%*

8.56%*

6.42%* Financial Crisis

Mariah Loss (Severe

Thunderstorm)

KAMP Loss (Katrina)

HU Sandy

Cat bonds have exhibited relative safety and high returns when compared to other high-yield investments due to the nature of the risk and the integrity of the structures

Page 11: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

Primary Cat Bond Issuance Spreads

11 Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets as of March 1, 2014

Spreads fluctuations and demand-supply dynamics have been constantly changing

During 2013-2014 spreads moved to an historical low

Illustrative Primary Issuance Spread (US Wind) January 2001 – March 2014 1

(1) Swiss Re Capital Markets pricing indications only; estimated primary issuance spread computed for an expected loss of 2% using regression analysis

Rates hardening post Katrina

Financial crisis

Excess supply of

cat bonds

Increasing liquidity and additional capital inflow

Low interest rate

environment

Page 12: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

12

Cat Bond Distribution and Investor Universe

72%

6%

2%

13%

7%

Dedicated

Hedge Fund

Insurer

Money Manager

Reinsurer

55%

4%1%

31%

9%

Dedicated

Hedge Fund

Insurer

Money Manager

Reinsurer

Investor Breakdown by Type 2013 Investor Breakdown by Type 2012

Source: Swiss Re Capital Markets

Page 13: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

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13

* An investment in Insurance Linked Securities involves potentially significant risks for an investor. In summary, these risks include (but are not limited to): •Investors may lose all or a portion of their investment in Insurance Linked Securities if a natural catastrophe or other event triggers a payment by the issuer of the Insurance Linked Securities under the underlying risk-transfer agreement that the Insurance Linked Securities relate to. •The maturity of Insurance Linked Securities may be extended without the prior consent of the investor. •The Insurance Linked Securities may be redeemed before their maturity date (including before any extension of such maturity date by the issuer). •If the Insurance Linked Securities are redeemed before maturity, the interest rate payable under the Insurance Linked Securities will be reduced. •Investors have limited recourse to assets of the issuer of the Insurance Linked Securities and no recourse to assets of the counterparties to the underlying risk-transfer agreements to which the Insurance Linked Securities relate. •If the issuer of the Insurance Linked Securities becomes insolvent, investors may lose some or all of their investment. •Investors may be required to consolidate the issuer for accounting purposes under certain circumstances. •An investment in the Insurance Linked Securities may have adverse tax consequences for investors. •Any claim you have against the issuer in the event of the issuer's insolvency will rank below any claim a counterparty to the underlying risk-transfer agreements, to which the Insurance Linked Securities relate, has against the issuer. •Enforcement of the security interest granted to a Trustee for the benefit of the investors may be limited. •The Insurance Linked Securities may not have a secondary market or the secondary market for the Insurance Linked Securities may have limited liquidity; the market price of the Insurance Linked Securities in the secondary market may be highly volatile. •The Rating Agenc(y)(ies) (if any) may change any rating assigned to the Insurance Linked Securities. Any credit rating given in respect of the Insurance Linked Securities may not reflect the potential impact of all risks related to the Insurance Linked Securities. A credit rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold the Insurance Linked Securities and may be revised or withdrawn by the rating agency at any time. The risk factors relating to an investment in Insurance Linked Securities are set out in detail in the offering materials for the relevant Insurance Linked Securities. Before entering into any financial transaction, you should ensure that you fully understand the terms, have evaluated the risks and determined that the transaction is appropriate for you in all respects.

Risk Factors

Page 14: New Opportunities Transfer Of Insurance Risk Into The ... Philipp Kusche.pdf · Barclays Ba US High Yield S&P 500 Total Return Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index Total Return 10 Relative

Proprietary and Exclusive

14

Swiss Re Capital Markets Corporation is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (“SIPC”), and is regulated by the FINRA.

This document is solely for your use (“you”). The concepts and structures it contains are confidential and proprietary information, as well as business assets of Swiss Re Capital Markets Corporation and our affiliates (“SRCM”, “us” or “we”). They are shared with you for the exclusive purpose of allowing you to evaluate your interest in such structures. In particular, this information may not be used to discuss similar structures with any person SRCM could reasonably consider a competitor in this field. Unless otherwise agreed in writing, SRCM and its affiliates act solely in the capacity of an arm's length contractual counterparty and not as an adviser or fiduciary. Accordingly, you should not regard transaction proposals or other written or oral communications from us as a recommendation or advice that a transaction is appropriate for you or meets your financial objectives.

Any financial transaction involves a variety of potentially significant risks and issues. Before entering into any financial transaction, you should ensure that you fully understand the terms, have evaluated the risks and determined that the transaction is appropriate for you in all respects. If you believe that you need assistance, you should consult appropriate advisers before entering into the transaction. SRCM does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. In addition, we agree that, subject to applicable law, you may disclose any and all aspects of any potential transaction or structure described herein that are necessary to support any U.S. federal income tax benefits, without SRCM imposing limitation of any kind. This material does not constitute an offer to enter into any transaction. Such material is believed by us to be reliable, but we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. This brief statement does not purport to describe all of the risks associated with financial transactions and should not be construed as advice to you.

Certain aspects of this presentation may give rise to perceived or actual conflicts of interest (i) between you and us and/or (ii) among you, us and other third parties. Such conflicts may arise from other business activities customarily conducted by other areas of our firm with you or with other clients. Such activities may include, but are not limited to, sales and trading activities. For example, we may already have executed similar transactions or strategies for our own account or accounts of other clients and we may have made similar presentations to others. Execution of any transaction contemplated in this presentation may involve other affiliates of SRCM and may result in perceived or actual self-dealing intended to generate revenue for our firm.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an invitation or inducement or an offer or commitment, a solicitation of an offer or commitment, or any advice or recommendation, to conclude any transaction. While information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent it to be accurate or complete. The information contained herein includes illustrations, estimates and projections and involves significant elements of subjective judgment, assumptions and analysis. Any views or opinions (including illustrations, estimates, statements or forecasts) constitute our judgment as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. No representation is made as to the accuracy of such illustrations, estimates or projections or that all assumptions relating to them have been considered or stated or that such projections or returns will be realised. The returns or performance results may be lower than estimated herein. Note that past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained herein does not purport to contain all of the information that may be required to evaluate such solutions and you are encouraged to conduct independent analysis of the data referred to herein. We do not undertake to update this document.

Disclaimer


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