New Threats to SecurityNew Threats to SecurityChallenges and ResponsesChallenges and Responses

Dr. Fred TannerDr. Fred Tanner

Geneva Centre for Security PolicyGeneva Centre for Security Policy

Structure of PresentationStructure of Presentation

What is security today?What is security today? Security ActorsSecurity Actors Threat AssessmentsThreat Assessments Internationalisation of PolicingInternationalisation of Policing Role of governance and Role of governance and

democratisationdemocratisation ConclusionsConclusions

What is Security?What is Security?

Security as the absence of threats to core Security as the absence of threats to core valuesvalues survivalsurvival welfarewelfare identityidentity

• how we choose to see ourselves (culture, values)how we choose to see ourselves (culture, values)• how we choose to organise our lives (political and how we choose to organise our lives (political and

judicial institutions)judicial institutions)

Traditional Understanding of Traditional Understanding of SecuritySecurity

Whose security ?Whose security ?→ → StateState

Type of threat?Type of threat? → → militarymilitary

Origin of threat?Origin of threat?→ → external (other States)external (other States)

Response to the threat ?Response to the threat ? → → increase in military power, unilaterally or through military increase in military power, unilaterally or through military

alliancesalliances

Main security actors:Main security actors: → → StatesStates → → Defence ministriesDefence ministries → → Military alliancesMilitary alliances

The New Security EnvironmentThe New Security Environment

Whose security is important? States, regions, groups, Whose security is important? States, regions, groups, individuals individuals

What actors are important in discussing security: states, What actors are important in discussing security: states, non-state actors, MNCs, multilateral organizations.non-state actors, MNCs, multilateral organizations.

Where do threats come from in the contemporary Where do threats come from in the contemporary security environment: terrorists, bandits, criminals, WMD security environment: terrorists, bandits, criminals, WMD

Are military threats still the most important focus in the Are military threats still the most important focus in the analysis of security?: clearly not.analysis of security?: clearly not.

Most of the New Threats are not so much threats to the Most of the New Threats are not so much threats to the survival of the state, but to society and to individuals survival of the state, but to society and to individuals

Defence

Deepening and Widening of Deepening and Widening of SecuritySecurity

VerticalVertical

StateState

SocietySociety

HumanHuman

SectoralSectoral

HealthHealth

EconomyEconomy

Environment Environment

PovertyPoverty

DeepeningDeepeningglobalglobal

regionalregional

BroadeningBroadeningeconomiceconomic environmentenvironment food food healthhealth etc.etc.

societalsocietal

humanhuman

Societal securitySocietal security

Threats – not to “sovereignty” – but to the Threats – not to “sovereignty” – but to the “identity” of a social group“identity” of a social group

Two examples:Two examples: Ethno-national conflictsEthno-national conflicts migrationmigration

Human securityHuman security

People-centered security agenda: “freedom from fear”People-centered security agenda: “freedom from fear” Includes threats Includes threats fromfrom a state a state againstagainst its citizens its citizens Practical examples:Practical examples:

Land minesLand mines Small armsSmall arms Security sector reformSecurity sector reform Child soldiersChild soldiers Conflict goods (diamonds, etc.)Conflict goods (diamonds, etc.)

What Is Globalisation?What Is Globalisation? The processes whereby the peoples of the world are The processes whereby the peoples of the world are

incorporated into a single world society (Albrow 1990)incorporated into a single world society (Albrow 1990) The intensification of worldwide social relations linking distant The intensification of worldwide social relations linking distant

localities such that local happenings are shaped by events far localities such that local happenings are shaped by events far away and vice versa. (Giddens 1990)away and vice versa. (Giddens 1990)

Colonisation (Khor 1995)Colonisation (Khor 1995) A process that embodies a transformation in spatial A process that embodies a transformation in spatial

organisation of social relations and transactions (Held 1999)organisation of social relations and transactions (Held 1999) Processes whereby many social relations have become Processes whereby many social relations have become

relatively de-linked from territorial geography, so that human relatively de-linked from territorial geography, so that human lives are increasingly played out in the world as a single whole lives are increasingly played out in the world as a single whole (Scholte 2002)(Scholte 2002)

Security ActorsSecurity Actors

Actors in Global WorldActors in Global World

StatesStates MNCsMNCs Criminal OrganisationsCriminal Organisations TerroristsTerrorists Civil SocietyCivil Society MediaMedia Multilateral InstitutionsMultilateral Institutions

• The growth in numbersThe growth in numbers• The multiplication of functionsThe multiplication of functions• The expansion of powers to regulate interstate transactions The expansion of powers to regulate interstate transactions

and the internal policies of statesand the internal policies of states

New Security Actors New Security Actors withinwithin GovernmentsGovernments

Interior/justice ministriesInterior/justice ministries Finance ministriesFinance ministries Environment ministriesEnvironment ministries Energy ministriesEnergy ministries Health ministriesHealth ministries

→ → Importance of inter-ministerial Importance of inter-ministerial cooperation/coordinationcooperation/coordination

Multilateral Security ActorsMultilateral Security Actors

International OrganisationsInternational Organisations

- - the UN and peace operationsthe UN and peace operations

- specialised agencies- specialised agencies

Regional OrganisationsRegional Organisations

- - military operationsmilitary operations

- peace-building- peace-building

- multilateral police missions- multilateral police missions

Private Security ActorsPrivate Security Actors

NGOsNGOs Multinational corporationsMultinational corporations Transnational criminal networksTransnational criminal networks Terrorist groupsTerrorist groups Private military companiesPrivate military companies

Threat assessmentsThreat assessments

Where Do Threats Come From?Where Do Threats Come From?

Threats are multidirectional (from outside Threats are multidirectional (from outside and from within)and from within)

There are increasing numbers of global There are increasing numbers of global threats (terror, crime, illicit migration, threats (terror, crime, illicit migration, proliferation)proliferation)

Natural threats are increasingly important Natural threats are increasingly important

UN High Level Panel:UN High Level Panel:““A more secure world: our shared

responsibility” (December 2004)(December 2004)

Poverty, infectious disease, environmental Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradationdegradation

Inter-state Conflict Inter-state Conflict Conflict within states, including genocide and Conflict within states, including genocide and

gross violationsgross violations Nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological Nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological

weaponsweapons TerrorismTerrorism Transnational organised crimeTransnational organised crime

Deadly cycle Deadly cycle

Poverty, infectious disease (malaria, Aids, Poverty, infectious disease (malaria, Aids, SARS) environmental degradation and war feed SARS) environmental degradation and war feed one another in a deadly cycleone another in a deadly cycle

Poverty is strongly associated with civil warPoverty is strongly associated with civil war Disease and poverty are connected to Disease and poverty are connected to

environmental degradation (climate change)environmental degradation (climate change) Environmental stress caused by large Environmental stress caused by large

populations and shortages of land and other populations and shortages of land and other natural resources can contribute to civil warnatural resources can contribute to civil war

The link to globalisationThe link to globalisation

Many new threats involve transnational Many new threats involve transnational flowsflows

Many involve transnational actorsMany involve transnational actors The global nature of many threats draws The global nature of many threats draws

into question the capacity of the state to into question the capacity of the state to do its jobdo its job

Many newer states have little capacity to Many newer states have little capacity to cope cope

European Security Strategy:European Security Strategy:“A Secure Europe in a Better “A Secure Europe in a Better

World” World” (12 December 2003)(12 December 2003)

““Root causes” of conflictsRoot causes” of conflicts Poverty, bad governance, weak institutionsPoverty, bad governance, weak institutions

TerrorismTerrorism Proliferation of WMDProliferation of WMD Failed statesFailed states International Organised CrimeInternational Organised Crime

NATO: Strategic concept 1999NATO: Strategic concept 1999

““The last ten years have (…) seen the The last ten years have (…) seen the appearance of complex new risks to Euro-appearance of complex new risks to Euro-Atlantic peace and stability, including Atlantic peace and stability, including oppression, ethnic conflict, economic oppression, ethnic conflict, economic distress, the collapse of political order, and distress, the collapse of political order, and the proliferation of weapons of mass the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction”destruction”

NATO: NATO: Prague SummitPrague Summit 20022002

Terrorism as strategic threatTerrorism as strategic threat WMD proliferation (including missile WMD proliferation (including missile

threats)threats) Instability in “Wider Europe”Instability in “Wider Europe” ““Cyber attacks”Cyber attacks”

US National Security StrategyUS National Security Strategy

““Enemies in the past needed great armies Enemies in the past needed great armies and great industrial capabilities to and great industrial capabilities to endanger America. Now, shadowy endanger America. Now, shadowy networks of individuals can bring great networks of individuals can bring great chaos and suffering to our shores for less chaos and suffering to our shores for less than it costs to purchase a single tank”than it costs to purchase a single tank”

(National Security Strategy of the US, (National Security Strategy of the US, 2002)2002)

Fears of EU citizensFears of EU citizens

Policy ResponsesPolicy Responses

Implications for Policy responsesImplications for Policy responses States must cooperate to fight global threats States must cooperate to fight global threats Issues are interrelatedIssues are interrelated

e.g. money-laundering, trafficking in drugs and persons, e.g. money-laundering, trafficking in drugs and persons, and corruption. and corruption.

Security policy engages a larger number of actors within Security policy engages a larger number of actors within states (military, home affairs, police)states (military, home affairs, police)

International efforts to stem the problem are only as strong as International efforts to stem the problem are only as strong as the weakest link.the weakest link.

New threats create an increasing and changing demand for New threats create an increasing and changing demand for institutions and for multilateral cooperationinstitutions and for multilateral cooperation Institutional frameworks may need substantial reformInstitutional frameworks may need substantial reform Current frameworks may not be appropriate ones for Current frameworks may not be appropriate ones for

addressing the imperatives of security policyaddressing the imperatives of security policy Limited role of the use of forceLimited role of the use of force

Events such as Tsunami require Events such as Tsunami require Multi-dimensionalMulti-dimensional Response Response

Local authorities (disaster relief, food, Local authorities (disaster relief, food, housing etc.)housing etc.)

NGOs and international organisations NGOs and international organisations (ditto, protection of vulnerable persons (ditto, protection of vulnerable persons [children], other forms of assistance)[children], other forms of assistance)

Militaries (rescue operations, transport, Militaries (rescue operations, transport, etc.)etc.)

Private airline companies (transport)Private airline companies (transport) Forensic teams (victim identification)Forensic teams (victim identification)

Blurring of Internal and External Blurring of Internal and External SecuritySecurity

TransnationalTransnational challenges, such as cross-border challenges, such as cross-border organised crime or transnational terrorismorganised crime or transnational terrorism→→ blurring of separation between internal and blurring of separation between internal and external security external security →→ convergence of police and military functionsconvergence of police and military functions

Increasing involvement of military forces in Increasing involvement of military forces in domestic security missions (critical infrastructure domestic security missions (critical infrastructure protection, border control etc.)protection, border control etc.)

Internationalisation of policingInternationalisation of policing

Internationalisation of PolicingInternationalisation of Policing Law enforcement cooperation / information Law enforcement cooperation / information

exchangeexchange

Global: InterpolGlobal: Interpol Regional, e.g.: Regional, e.g.:

- Europol- Europol- SECI Centre (Southeast European Co-operative- SECI Centre (Southeast European Co-operativeInitiative Regional Centre for Combating Trans-border Crime)Initiative Regional Centre for Combating Trans-border Crime)

Police missions in peace operations,Police missions in peace operations, e.g.:e.g.:

- - IPTF (Bosnia)IPTF (Bosnia)- EUPM (Bosnia)- EUPM (Bosnia)- UNMIK (Kosovo)- UNMIK (Kosovo)- Proxima (Macedonia)- Proxima (Macedonia)

Interpol (International Police Interpol (International Police Organisation)Organisation)

Established in 1923 (under the name Established in 1923 (under the name International Criminal Police Commission International Criminal Police Commission [I.C.P.C.])[I.C.P.C.])

Headquarters in Lyon (since 1989)Headquarters in Lyon (since 1989) 181 member countries181 member countries Main purpose: enhance co-operation and Main purpose: enhance co-operation and

information exchange between law enforcement information exchange between law enforcement agencies of member countries in the fight agencies of member countries in the fight against international crime against international crime

No executive powers (does not conduct criminal No executive powers (does not conduct criminal investigations)investigations)

Europol (European Police Office)Europol (European Police Office)

Established in 1994Established in 1994 Focuses on all forms of serious crime. Main priorities are Focuses on all forms of serious crime. Main priorities are

drug trafficking, illegal immigration/trafficking in human drug trafficking, illegal immigration/trafficking in human beings, counterfeiting of the euro and counter terrorism.beings, counterfeiting of the euro and counter terrorism.

Main activities:Main activities:- Information exchange- Information exchange- Provision of operational analysis in support of members - Provision of operational analysis in support of members states’ operationsstates’ operations- Elaboration of strategic reports (threat assessments) - Elaboration of strategic reports (threat assessments)

No executive powers (not ‘European FBI’)No executive powers (not ‘European FBI’)

SECI Centre, BucharestSECI Centre, Bucharest Established in 2000 in framework of Stability Established in 2000 in framework of Stability

PactPact Regional focal point for information exchange on Regional focal point for information exchange on

cross-border crime (human trafficking, drug cross-border crime (human trafficking, drug trafficking, arms trafficking etc.)trafficking, arms trafficking etc.)

15 liaison officers (police and customs officers) 15 liaison officers (police and customs officers) from 9 SECI countriesfrom 9 SECI countries

Participating States include: Albania, Bosnia-Participating States include: Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovenia, former Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovenia, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey and Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey and Serbia and MontenegroSerbia and Montenegro

““Arc of reform”Arc of reform”Risks vs benefits of democratisationRisks vs benefits of democratisation

HLP: global values of HR, responsibility to protectHLP: global values of HR, responsibility to protect EU: externalisation of civilian and liberal model; belief EU: externalisation of civilian and liberal model; belief

in multilateralismin multilateralism European neighbourhood policy (ENP)European neighbourhood policy (ENP) Council: Policy of containment Council: Policy of containment (terrorism, IOC, migration)(terrorism, IOC, migration)

Commission: liberal and free market ideologyCommission: liberal and free market ideology US “forward strategy of freedom”US “forward strategy of freedom”

Democratic peaceDemocratic peace

Risk of “Algerian syndrome”Risk of “Algerian syndrome”

ConclusionConclusion The broader the concept, the less useful to policy-The broader the concept, the less useful to policy-

makers and analystsmakers and analysts Security in a global world is as strong as its weakest Security in a global world is as strong as its weakest

linklink Blurring between external and internal security has Blurring between external and internal security has

profound institutional and policy consequencesprofound institutional and policy consequences Regional responses (e.g. EU, NATO) are necessary Regional responses (e.g. EU, NATO) are necessary

but not sufficient but not sufficient Emerging importance of law enforcement, declining Emerging importance of law enforcement, declining

importance of the use of forceimportance of the use of force Is total or absolute security possible?Is total or absolute security possible?

ConclusionConclusion

In focusing on new threats and agendas, we should not ignore old ones in new forms The impartial socialization of the Russian

Federation US unipolarity and alleged unilateralism The rise of new poles of power (China,

Europe) The decay of old relationships