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EVENTS: Economic Outlook 2011
AirAsia Academy Visit
12th Annual General Meeting
NEW MEMBER
ARTICLE FROM THE EMBASSY
News Bulletinan electronic News Bulletin published by the Swiss Malaysian Business Association, SMBA, for its members
Volume I.4 (2011)
New Chairman,Arno Thny (left)
New Vice Chairman,
Thomas Guldimann (right)
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Once again and like for the past four years,
the SMBA was honored to welcome Credit
Suisse to sponsor the Economic Outlook
2011, also it was an honor that the presentation for the third time was
presented by their Chief Economist for
Asia, Mr. Joseph Tan.
The event took place at the Melia Hotel on January
26th and was attended by 40 peoples!
The Chairman, Mr. Heinz Bauert gave a small
introduction. He also introduced the new Ambassador
to Malaysia H.E. Dr. Rolf Lenz, who just arrived about
two weeks ago in Kuala Lumpur.
The Chairman also thanked Credit Suisse and inparticular Mr. Denis Poo for their continuous support
towards the SMBA.
Mr. Joseph Tan thanked the Chairman and opened his
presentation with some pointers; three distinct
economic realities;
1. USA putting the economy on steroids
2. Europe: Austerity medicine
3. Emerging Markets: The global growth engine
He went on to explain the current economic situation
in the US and their subsequent consequences for us
here in Asia. (Slide 7)
Also the macro policy of the US government will have
significant consequences for the economies in Asia. He
went on to explain that actually with the current
economic crisis with some of the European countries,
Asia is actually minimally exposed, if one looks atExports from Asia to Euro zone and the other
European countries. (Slide 10)
Mr. Heinz Bauert
Mr. Joseph Tan
Economic Outlook 2011
SMBA News Bulletin
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EconomicO
utlook2011
On another slide he pointed out that Asian
governments have very strong fiscalpositions in comparison to US and Europe.
(Slide 11) This makes the economies here far
more resilient. Also more and more the inter
Asian trade is getting far more significant
then lets say a couple of years back. (Slide
15)
Within Asia the domestic demand is a key
pillar to drive Asian growth. (Slide 14) Thedomestic demands in certain countries have
grown dramatically, especially for example
in China.
SMBA News Bulletin
One mayor risk in Asia is with the current Currency wars an inflation risk. (Slide 23 & 24)
Malaysia for instance he explained is far less exposed then for instance Indonesia but one
should not forget that certain key commodities here (Malaysia) are government controlled.
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Mr. Tan went on to explain the sharp increase in sales of residential buildings as well as their
prices in China bears a risk and could create a bubble. The Chinese Government is very much
aware of that and will try to calm down the markets, since a bubble would have significant
consequences for the rest of Asia.
EconomicO
utlook2011
On Slide 28, he went on to explain the significant increase in Currency reserves hold by all
major Asian Governments.
Obviously the currency war between the US & Chinese Governments could also affect our
economies here. Hence more creative measures have to be implemented to mange capital
flows. (Slide 30)
On the other side Asian currencies will actually gain due to rates, flows and CNY. But also due
to inter Asian trade. Slide 32. Credit Suisse predicts that key markets will price the US/CNY at
6.45 in the next 12 months. Hence all Asian currency will get stronger in the short term. Slide
34
SMBA News Bulletin
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EconomicO
utlook2011
At the end Mr. Tan explained the outlook for
Malaysia in the view of CS, where they see a
strong economy, a good and strong
economical leadership, their main problem
will be how to tackle the huge Government
subsidies on price controlled commodities.
In the long run CS is of the opinion that the
Government has to take a firm policy to
totally abolish all the subsidies.
Another risk for Malaysia is the currency;
which is linked indirectly to the US dollar.
But overall the Malaysian economy doingwell compared to other economies, the only
risk for an investor would be the political
uncertainty, as when the Prime Minister will
announce General elections.
At the end Mr. Tan replied some questions
from the crowd mainly related to the
European crisis and the outlook on China.
SMBA News Bulletin
The Chairman closed the event by announcing the next event and thanking the speaker and
Credit Suisse once again for sponsoring the event. A memento was presented to the speaker,
who had to rush to the airport immediately after his presentation.
The participants were served canaps and finger food with free flow of beer and soft drinks
sponsored by Credit Suisse.
Article written by Thomas Guldimann
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A visit to the
AirAsia Academy
On the 19 February 2011, approximately 25
members visited the AirAsia Academy situated in
Sepang, Selangor.
AirAsia is the low cost carrier giant that has grown
in the past 9 years to become the 4th largest
airline in Asia in 2010 by carrying 29 million
passengers per year. With a short history of 9 years
since Dec 2001, AirAsia has grown from 2 planes to
103 aircraft across 4 countries.
The AirAsia Academy produces all of pilots,
engineers, ground staff and flight attendants for
the operations. All of the graduates are certified by
the respective ASEAN Civil Aviation Authorities
including Malaysia's DCA.
SMBA News Bulletin
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The SMBA members were briefed on AirAsia by our
own committee member, Mr. Zaman Ahmad who is
also the Regional Head for Customer Experience for
AirAsia. A tour was conducted by the Academy staff
and the highlight was the aircraft simulator tour
where SMBA members experienced first hand the
simulator procedure that completed a take off,
cruising and landing in 10 minutes for the AirbusA320.
AirAsiaAc
ademyVisit
Mr. Liew Kang Hwa,
whos our tour guide for the day
Mr. Zaman Ahmad,
Regional Head for
Customer Experience for AirAsia
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After the exciting simulator experience, the SMBA
members were treated to lunch with AirAsia's variety
of meals that are also available onboard.
The visit ended at approximately 3pm.
AirAsiaAc
ademyVisit
SMBA News Bulletin
Article written by Zaman Ahmad
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12th Annual General Meeting
Another AGM, the 12th, has been concluded,
on March the 30th,
with typical Swiss efficiency.
Speedily the approving of the minutes of meeting of the 2010 AGM, the annual report of the
committee and the audited accounts were done. All results were unanimously as our two vote
counters Andr Isaak and Manfred Faehndrich established with practiced ease.
The turn out of 42 members of the SMBA was very satisfactory, highlighted by the presence of our
three honorary members Tan Sri Dato Zulliger, Dr. Peter A Wyss and H.E. the ambassador of
Switzerland.
SMBA News Bulletin
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12
AnnualGene
ralMeeting
Johann Bohi after serving on the
committee of the SMBA for more than 6
years did not seek reelection and
Muthanna Abdullah who also did not
seek reelection due to business
commitments. Both have resigned from
the committee.
We would like to sincerely thank Johann
and Muthanna for all the hours,
experience and passion he has brought
to the organization in the past years.
We also would like to express our thanks
and gratitude to Heinz Bauert, Chairman
of the SMBA, for his tireless work,
organizational skills and leadership he
has displayed over the years.One of the founding members of the
SMBA eleven years ago, he has
navigated this organization through all
waters especially in last three years as
Chairman.
He lead the SMBA to new successes and
today Heinz can proudly hand over a
healthy and financially sound
organization to his successor.
Arno Thny the newly elected Chairman
introduced himself and then continued
to thank Heinz for his work andhighlighted the achievements. Arno
concluded with a token of appreciation
that was handed over to the resigning
committee members.
Unanimously elected to the SMBA
committee were:
Thomas Guldimann, Vice Chairman
Sandro Tomasino, Secretary
Marc Seiler, TreasurerAileen Chan, Committee Member
Dato (Dr.) Michael Wong, Committee
Member
Zaman Ahmad, Committee Member
Juergen Mayer, Committee Member
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12
AnnualGene
ralMeeting
Another highlight of the evening was
the talk by HE ambassador Dr. Rolf Lenz.
Starting by introducing himself he gave
the members of the SMBA a short and
insightfull overview about the points of
focus of the embassy in the coming
years and the importance of the SMBA
to the SECO.
Having studied political science in
Switzerland Ambassador Dr. Rolf Lenz
finished his degree in Bejing and also
learned the language during his initial
stay in China. Being exposed to a
different culture and also having to
come to terms with it, awakened the
interests of the young graduate and
consequently he joined the diplomaticcorps.
Mainly stationed in Bejing and Shanghai,
interrupted by stays in Canada,
Switzerland and Bosnia Herzegowina HE
Dr. Rolf Lenz was again appointed to an
Asian country and on January the first
became the new Ambassador of
Switzerland to Malaysia.
After going to the usual steps and being
introduces and approved by the King as
well as paying courtesy visits to other
ambassadors HE lost no time to line out
the focus and targets of the embassy
under his leadership.
Mainly the development and further
enhancement of the relations between
the swiss and Malaysian government,
especially where related to economy,
business, tourism and R&D
There is also a concentration on the
development of a FTA (Free trade
agreement) between Malaysia and
Switzerland.
With this outline HE once again stressed
the importance of the SMBA for the
embassy and assuring it his full support.
He concluded by thanking Heinz Bauert
once again for his efforts as the
chairman and handed to Heinz a token
of appreciation as well as a letter from
the embassy.
This concluded the official part of theevening and the members moved on to
the culinary delights of the Melia Hotel.
SMBA News Bulletin |
Article written by Sandro Tomasino
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Messagefromth
eChairman
Dear Members,
We are pleased to inform that at the 12th Annual General
Meeting (AGM) held on 30 March 2011 all motions
addressed have been approved by the assembly.
The new Board of Committee Members that has been
elected and accepted their position are:
Mr. Arno Thny, Melia Kuala Lumpur as Chairman
Mr. Thomas Guldimann, Casa Vino Sdn Bhd as Vice Chairman
Mr. Marc Seiler, Nestl (Malaysia) Berhad as Treasurer
Mr. Sandro Tomasino, GUTOR Electronic Asia Pacific Sdn Bhd as Secretary
Ms. Aileen Chan, LiveLife Sdn Bhd as Committee Member
Dato (Dr.) Michael Wong, Job Hunt Sdn Bhd as Committee Member
En. Kamarulzaman Ahmad (Individual Member) as Committee Member
Mr. Juergen Mayer, Wuerth Industrial Services Malaysia Sdn Bhd as Committee Member
The Auditors of the Association, Messrs T.H. Kuan & Co have been reappointed while
the annual reports and audited accounts were approved without objections.
The Annual Booklet 2010/2011 with information on the new board members, a
kaleidoscope of the past years events and a preview of forthcoming activities was
launched at the AGM. A complimentary copy will be posted to all members shortly. We
sincerely thank all sponsors that contributed and made the printing of the Annual
Booklet possible.
It was an honor to have our Swiss Ambassador H.E. Dr Rolf Lenz, share his experience,
background and vision with the Swiss Malaysian Business Association and thank H.E. for
the insight.
As it is customary and our Associations tradition, we are extending to former Chairmen
of the Board a Honorary Lifetime Membership. It is our great pleasure to extend that
privilege to Mr. Heinz Bauert and welcome him from now on as Honorary Member of the
Swiss Malaysian Business Association. Please join us to extend once again, a sincere
thank you to Mr. Heinz Bauert for his great leadership as Chairman and CommitteeMember since the inauguration of the SMBA. It gives us great confidence that we can call
upon Heinz as our mentor while we may continue the success of the SMBA.
We take this opportunity appreciate your continuous support of the SMBA and look
forward to your participation and enthusiasm for our forthcoming events which have
been listed in the attachment and will be circulated with more details closer to the
respective events, please mark your diaries.
Arno Thny
Chairman, SMBA
April 1st, 2011 SMBA News Bulletin |
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Top row (from left):
Arno Thny, Chairman
Thomas Guldimann, Vice Chairman
Marc Seiler, Treasurer
Sandro Tomasino, Secretary
Second row (from left):
Aileen Chan, Committee Member
Dato (Dr.) Michael Wong, Committee MemberZaman Ahmad, Committee Member
Juergen Mayer, Committee Member
Third row (from left):
Dr. Rolf Lenz, H.E. The Ambassador of Switzerland to Malaysia
Dato Gurbakhash Singh, Legal Advisor to SMBA
SMBA News Bulletin |
Committee Members
April 2011 March 2012
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Arno Thny, Chairman
General Manager,
Melia Kuala Lumpur
Arno Thny was appointed the new General
Manager of Melia Kuala Lumpur in April 2006.
Ever since, the 50yearold hotelier has
steered Melia Kuala Lumpur through his
management styles that incorporates the
corporate social responsibility movement of
balancing the needs of all stakeholders to
achieve sustainable growth and business
development. With 34 years of hospitality
background at hand, he has plenty to prove
and carries with him a wealth of experience in
the hotel industry.
Apart from Malaysia and Singapore, Arno
Thny has acquired significant international
experience and has lived, worked and
undertaken consultancy projects and
assignments in a multitude of Asian countries
such as China, Hong Kong, Philippines,
Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, in
Australia and his very own home countrySwitzerland.
He earned his undergraduate degree from the
Hotel Management School at Belvoirpark,
Zurich and has a Masters Degree in Business
Administration (MBA) from the University of
South Australia, Adelaide. Mr. Arno Thny has
been dubbed an intrapreneur, infusing an
innovative and unconventional management
style in the daily hotel operation.
SMBA News Bulletin |
His interests engulf active participation in
the business community including the
Swiss Malaysian Business Association for
the last five years, is a founding member
and General Secretary of La Camera, the
SpanishMalaysian Chamber of Commerce,
Deputy Chairman of the EUMCCI CSRCommittee and a Committee Member of
the Malaysian Hotel Association KL
Chapter. As an affluent speaker he is using
his skills in educating the next generation
of entrepreneurs and hoteliers at the KDU
College and through talks on the subject of
CSR. His strong conviction and contribution
towards CSR, brought Melia Kuala Lumpur
to the forefront of the CSR movement in
the hospitality industry of Kuala Lumpur.
Thomas Guldimann, Vice Chairman
Managing Director,
Casa Vino Sdn Bhd
Educated in Switzerland, Thomas Guldimann
has held various management positions in
the hotel industry spanning acrossSwitzerland, USA and Asia. He has worked
16 years in Asia and he is now owner of Caso
Vino Sdn Bhd in Malaysia, specializing in
boutique wineries mainly from Australia &
Argentina.
His clientele comprise mainly five & fourstar
hotels, restaurants & bars and dutyfree
shops in KLIA, Klang Valley and Langkawi.
He has been supplying wines to MAS for
their First & Business Class flights to Asia
since 2002.
Thomas was the Founding Member of the
Young Liberal Party FDP (Limmattal1980).
He has held the position of President of the
Swiss Club Malaysia from Feb 2002 to Feb
2004.
CommitteeMembers
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Marc Seiler, Treasurer
Executive Director, Finance & Control,
Nestl (Malaysia) Berhad
Marc Philippe Seiler, currently the Executive
Director, Finance & Control of Nestl
(Malaysia) Berhad was appointed as the
NonIndependent, Executive Director of the
Company on 1 December 2008. He holds a
Masters of Science in Management from
Ecole Superieure de Commerce de Paris,
France and an Accounting & Finance
Diploma [Diplome dEtudes Superieures
Comptables et Financieres].
Marc Philippe Seiler started his career as anexternal auditor with Coopers and Lybrand,
before joining the Nestl Group as Finance
Planning Manager of Nestl Waters in Paris.
Subsequently he was transferred to Nestl
Waters, North America where he has held
several positions such as Director Corporate
Planning, Director Finance Supply Chain,
Director Promotional Trade Spending, Chief
Financial Officer Canada, Chief FinancialOfficer US Retail Division, with his last
position as the Business Development and
Merger & Acquisition Director.
SMBA News Bulletin |
Sandro Tomasino, Secretary
Managing Director,
GUTOR Asia Pacific Sdn Bhd
Sandro Tomasino was appointed Managing
Director of GUTOR Asia Pacific Sdn/Bhd in
2007. In this function he has developed
GUTOR AP from a trading company into a full
fledged manufacturing facility located in Shah
Alam. GUTOR Electronic is the leading UPS
(uninterruptible Power Supply) Engineering
Company specialized in customized systems
for the O&G and power generation market.
This facility caters to the complete value
chain of activities for GUTOR and its clients inAsia Pacific and abroad, including sales,
design, research and development (R&D),
manufacturing, testing and after sales.
GUTOR Asia Pacific also serves as an
engineering and service hub for GUTOR
Switzerland.
After receiving a Bachelor degree in Electrical
Engineering, Sandro went abroad for the firsttime, spending four years in the USA as an
R&D Engineer developing handheld
measurements devices. Back in Switzerland
he joined Sensirion AG a spinoff of the
famous ETH Zurich (Swiss federal Institute of
Technology) where he continued R&D
activities.
In 2004 Sandro was appointed Engineering
Manager of GUTOR Switzerland and
immediately internationalized the
department with Malaysia, China and the USA
as the main hubs of GUTORs Engineering
division.
Sandro Tomasino graduated in 1997 as a
bachelor in electrical engineering from Luzern
and finalized his studies to Executive Master
Business Engineer FH in 2004
CommitteeMembers
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Aileen Chan, Committee Member
Chief Executive Officer,
Live Life Sdn Bhd, Malaysia;
Live Life Pte Ltd, Singapore
As the CEO of LiveLife, a marketing anddistribution company of health and beauty
products, Aileen heads the Sales & Marketing
team and the companys operational aspects
in both Malaysia and Singapore. A Business
graduate from the University of Technology,
Sydney she has proven her skills and business
acumen (she majored in Marketing) in the
competitive world of health and beauty.
Prior to establishing LiveLife together with her
husband, she carved her success as Managing
Director for Bionax Sdn Bhd and Bionax Pte
Ltd with a very successful track record of
launching and growing new and innovative
products to reshape consumers concept of
health & beauty.
Now, with more than 18 years experience in
the health and beauty industry, Aileencontinues to deliver many more marketing
success stories under her companys
philosophy of delivering only the best of
evidencebased, safe and natural health
products. She is responsible for the rise and
success of Estime, a bestselling and award
winning Swiss skin supplement in Malaysia.
Last year, she introduced two innovative
supplements Rilax, a natural stress relief
supplement and TruDtox, a herbal detox tea;
both of which have gained immense
popularity and credibility with consumers.
Most recently, she launched MIREICA, the
worlds first skin supplement containing a
Swiss developed plant stem cell extract, for
younger looking skin. LiveLife has also been
bestowed the honour of Best Local Health
Distributor; a recognition received from
Watsons chainstores.
SMBA News Bulletin |
She is married to Mr. Lim Siang Wee for 23
years and enjoys spending her free time with
her 2 children Nicholas, aged 17 and
Melissa, aged 15. Aileen also enjoys honing
her culinary skills, travelling to new places,
shopping, reading and meeting up with
friends, and is also actively involved insinging for charity (Glitterama Ladies Charity
Group), as well as being actively involved in
the Jinjang Utara Rumah Panjang Charity to
provide education for poor children.
Zaman Ahmad, Committee Member
Regional Head of Customer
Experience,
AirAsia Berhad
Zaman graduated from the Imperial College
as a Petronas scholar with a degree in
Electrical and Electronics Engineering. He
has worked with various divisions of
Petronas since then, first as part of the
Petronas Twin Towers setup team, then for
two years in South Africa as part of Petronas
Team Syntium Opel touring car racing team.
After that, he spent 5 years based in
Switzerland as part of the Sauber Petronas FI
racing team. Since 2005, Zaman has been
part of Petronass Corporate Planning
Division, then with Petronas Research &
Technology Division and his last posting was
as part of the top management team of
Petronas Ammonia Sdn Bhd, based in Kertih,
Terengganu.
Zaman has since joined AirAsia in September
2010 and now holds the portfolio of
Regional Head of Customer Experience. With
this portfolio, he leads more than half of
AirAsia's workforce with a focus on
customer service delivery and the
technology to deliver the products and
services of AirAsia.
CommitteeMembers
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Dato (DR.) Michael Wong
Committee Member
Executive Director,
Job Hunt Sdn Bhd
Dato (Dr.) Michael Wong Chin Hee is a veryambitious, dedicated and widevision
Executive Director with over 20 years of
professional experience in the corporate
world. He has an extensive background in
consumer and pharmaceutical products, as
well as food manufacturing and trading.
Michael took a leading role in establishing a
HR consulting firm, Job Hunt Sdn Bhd,
providing Executive Search & Selection,
Permanent Placements, Recruitment Process
Outsourcing (RPO), Payroll Administration,
Career Day, Behavioural Assessment
Techniques and Corporate Training.
He also sits on the board as Executive
Director for Oriental Eminence Resources
Sdn Bhd a company focusing on mergers &
acquisitions and Global Business AdvisorySdn Bhd a onestop service provider
supporting on the formation and
administration of companies, corporate
advisory, business entities and their legal
compliance.
In addition, Michael continues to shoulder
several other corporate responsibilities. He
has received many awards for his outstanding
work in human capital solutions is well
recognized in this industry.
His memberships with a number of
International Trade Associations such as
EUMCCI (EUMalaysia Chamber of Commerce
& Industry), MABC (Malaysia Australia
Business Council), SMBA (Swiss Malaysian
Business Association), and many more reflect
the diverse demographics of his businessportfolio.
SMBA News Bulletin |
Juergen Mayer, Committee Member
Managing Director,
Wuerth Industrial Services
Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.
Juergen Mayer was appointed Managing
Director of Wuerth Industrial Services
Malaysia in January 2010. The company had
at that time been a new setup and the latest
foundation of the Wuerth Industrial Networkof companies.
Ever since the emerging markets in the Asian
region has been his main focus of interest.
Having spent the majority of his studies in
Southeast Asia, he graduated from the
University Gadjah Mada, Indonesia, with a
diploma in International Business and
Communication in Asia. Having successfully
implemented a project for supplier audits at
BASF Indonesia, he did then start his career
with Wuerth at the Wuerth Industrial
Services headquarters in Germany where he
was responsible for the business
development in the Southeast Asian region.
He enjoys being among the Asian people and
is spending his free time with travelling and
enjoying the beautiful places of Malaysia.
Michael is a graduate of University of
Henley, UK and holds a Masters in Business
Administration (Honours) from Oklahoma
City University, USA.
CommitteeMembers
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N
ewMember
Wuerth Industrial Services Malaysia is part of the Wuerth Group.
The Wuerth Group is world market leader in its core business, the trade in
assembly and fastening material. It currently consists of over 400 companies
in 84 countries and has more than 62,000 employees on its payroll. Over
30,000 of these are permanently employed sales representatives.
In addition to our extensive standard product range, we are also strong in
logistics and operational supply and service concepts as well as specially
designed parts. With our CPS C Product Service we offer modular
solutions that can easily be adapted to suit your individual needs. These CPS
solutions can either contribute to reduce stock and replenishment times
or can help to outsource the entire procurement process.
Through customerspecific service concepts such as scanneroriented rack
systems and justintime supply via Kanbansystem customers experience a
crucial contribution to productivity growth. These systems are applicable for
both highvolume assembly materials on the production line and sporadic
resources requirements.
Wuerth Industrial Services
Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.Principal Representative: Juergen Mayer
SMBA News Bulletin |
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Articlefrom
theEmbassy
Encouraging short term economic trends
further global economic risks
SMBA News Bulletin |
Economic Forecasts for Switzerland Spring 2011
By the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO
Despite the strong Swiss franc, the Swiss economy has so far been able to continue
its buoyant growth, supported by the global economys positive impulses. The expert
group continues to believe that there will be an increasing lag on exports, primarily
due to the strength of the franc, and that this will have a cooling effect on the
economy as a whole. The federal governments expert group forecasts growth in GDP
of 2.1% in 2011 with slightly lower growth in 2012 (1.9%). However, the global
economic outlook is dampened by numerous risks (such as debt problems in many
countries), which are likely to hinder a stable recovery, with the latest developmentbeing uncertainties in connection with the looming nuclear disaster in Japan
World economy: During the winter of 2010/2011, the world economy was relatively
buoyant. The US economy in particular, which had temporarily struggled to get into
gear, noticeably picked up speed thus brightening short term growth prospects
considerably. The Euro zones moderate economic recovery has stayed on track
despite the continuing national debt crisis, although there are still significant
differences between the individual countries. In many emerging markets, economicgrowth has remained dynamic.
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Articlefrom
theEmbassy
Encouraging short term economic trends
further global economic risks
SMBA News Bulletin |
Despite the improved short term outlook for the world economy there are still a
variety of factors that could put a strain on the ongoing recovery. Due to the
precarious state of public finances in many countries not only in Europe, but also in
the USA there is growing pressure for consolidation measures, which might
temporarily curb the economy. A further problem lies in the fact that the real estate
crisis, particularly in the USA, is not yet over. As such, private consumption in the USA
is unlikely to serve as a motor for growth for some time, as households are still
reducing their debts or are forced to save. In addition, the sharp rise in the price of
oil (and other raw materials) will continue to burden the global economy, as higher
prices reduce consumer purchasing power and increase production costs for
businesses.
GDP of Switzerland: In view of the solid state of the domestic economy, the slow
down over the next few quarters should be relatively mild. The new forecast of the
expert group is for GDP growth of 2.1% for 2011 (previously 1.5%), and 1.9% for
2012 (as before).
External Trade: Despite the very strong value of the Swiss franc, solid growth in
exports has been recorded so far. This has been bolstered by the recent tailwind
from the international economy (especially from emerging markets, the USA and
Germany). Exports have also been helped by the chemical and pharmaceuticalindustries (roughly 40% of total good exports), which are relatively immune to
exchange rate fluctuations. According to recent surveys, many companies (mainly in
the machine industry) are reporting a weakened position compared to foreign
competitors due to the exchange rate, as well as reduced margins. At present, the
strain of the exchange rate is still being masked by the recovering world economy,
which is having a positive effect on order books. Growth in exports will probably slow
down over the course of the year due to the strong Swiss franc.
Unemployment: The situation on the labour has continued to improve,
unemployment rate fell further to 3.4% at the end of February 2011. The early
indicators for the labour market suggest a continued positive trend. Weakening
economic growth may gradually lessen the fall in unemployment in the later part of
2011 and next year. For 2011 the expert group expects an annual average
unemployment rate of 3.2% (previously 3.4%) and 3.3% for 2012 (previously 3.4%).
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Articlefrom
theEmbassy
Encouraging short term economic trends
further global economic risks
Outlook for Switzerland: The current situation of the Swiss economy in spring 2011 is
still positive. In Q4 the economy continued to grow strongly across a wide range of
sectors and at above average levels in comparison with other European countries.
The most recent economic indicators since the beginning of the year (January
February) have also been positive. Business and consumer confidence surveys show
few signs of weakness.
Global economic outlook: It remains extremely uncertain. Economic recovery
continues to be driven by extremely expansive and in the long term unsustainable
monetary and financial policies. A monetary policy correction cannot be put off
indefinitely without jeopardising price stability. The future development in the Euro
zone still presents a huge factor of uncertainty. On the one hand, it may risesignificantly again if unrest in the Arab region were to spread (e.g. to Saudi Arabia).
On the other hand, a sudden easing on the oil markets cannot be ruled out if Japans
demand for oil were to fall significantly as a result of the earthquake.
The recent events in Japan present an additional risk for the world economy but it is
likely that the consequences of the earthquake alone will not have a major impact on
the world economy or that of Switzerland. However, this assessment could alter
significantly in the event of a nuclear catastrophe.
If the latent international economic risks were to materialise, the Swiss franc could
experience renewed appreciation pressure and the competitiveness of Swiss
companies in the global market would be additionally strained.
Source: http://www.seco.admin.ch
Next press release: Tuesday, June 14th 2011
Kuala Lumpur, May 2nd 2011
Frank Eggmann
Counsellor / Deputy Head of Mission