NFPA Urban Fire ForumOctober 20 – 23, 2011

Quincy, MA

Glenn A. Gaines, Deputy Fire Administrator

Risk Reduction for Citizens and Fire Department Members in Urban

Communities

URBAN FIRE FORUMNATIONAL FIRE PROTECTION ASSOCIATION

®

The Urban Fire Problem In The United States

2

What is an Urban Area?

CHALLENGE:

Based on the Rural-Urban Commuting Areas (RUCA) Classification System

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How do we define urban and non-urban areas?

http://depts.washington.edu/uwruca/ruca-data.php

U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service's

Urban Areas and Non-Urban Areas

Urban – contiguous built-up areas of 50,000 persons or more

Suburban – areas, often in metropolitan counties, with high commuting flows to urban areas (not necessarily dependent on population)

Rural – towns with populations between 10,000 and 49,999

4

Data Sources

The data primarily used in the presentation are based on:

2007-2009 National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) data

2007 U.S. Census population data

RUCA data by zip codes

5

Urban 71%

Suburban10%

Rural19%

U.S. Population by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007 U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes. 6

Urban63%

Suburban11%

Rural26%

Fires Reported to NFIRSby Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

7

Urban54%

Suburban11%

Rural35%

Fire Deaths Reported to NFIRS by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

8

Urban76%

Suburban7%

Rural17%

Fire Injuries Reported to NFIRS by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

9

Urban61%

Suburban13%

Rural26%

Fire Dollar Losses Reported to NFIRS by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.Note: The 2007 and 2008 dollar loss values were adjusted to their equivalent 2009 dollar loss value. 10

Rural

Suburban

Urban

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

30.5

14.4

55.1

23.7

9.7

66.6

31.2

11.9

56.8

8.5

5.1

86.4

Fires Reported to NFIRS by Urban/Nonurban Areaswithin U.S. Census Regions

Northeast

Midwest

West

South

Percent of Fires

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes. 11

January

Febru

ary

March April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

8.1

7.5

9.19.2 9.4

8.9

9.8

8.3

7.6 7.47.6

7.1

9.09.2

11.7

9.8

8.28.1

9.1

7.5

6.66.8

7.36.7

8.58.9

11.9

9.8

8.18.2

9.3

7.9

6.76.7

7.4

6.7

Urban Suburban Rural

Fires Reported to NFIRS by Monthwithin Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

Month

Per

cent

of

Fir

es

12

Mid-1AM

1AM-2AM

2AM-3AM

3AM-4AM

4AM-5AM

5AM-6AM

6AM-7AM

7AM-8AM

8AM-9AM

9AM-10AM

10AM-11AM

11AM-12PM

12PM-1PM

1PM-2PM

2PM-3PM

3PM-4PM

4PM-5PM

5PM-6PM

6PM-7PM

7PM-8PM

8PM-9PM

9PM-10PM

10PM-11PM

11PM-Mid

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Urban Suburban Rural

Fires Reported to NFIRS by Time of Alarmwithin Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

Time of Alarm

Per

cent

of

Fir

es

13

Other

Outside

Vehicle

Nonresidential

Residential

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

7.2

49.3

12.7

7.6

23.3

6.8

52.2

13.3

6.3

21.4

5.6

39.1

14.8

8.6

31.9

Urban Suburban

Rural

Fires Reported to NFIRS by General Property Type within Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

Percent of Fires

14

Urban71%

Suburban8%

Rural21%

Residential Building Fires Reported to NFIRS

by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

15

Urban56%

Suburban10%

Rural35%

Residential Building Fire Deaths Reported to NFIRS

by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

16

Urban78%

Suburban6%

Rural16%

Residential Building Fire Injuries Reported to NFIRS

by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

17

Urban64%Suburban

12%

Rural23%

Residential Building Fire Dollar Losses Reported to NFIRS

by Urban/Nonurban Areas

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes. Note: The 2007 and 2008 dollar loss values were adjusted to their equivalent 2009 dollar loss value.

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Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.Notes: Average loss for fatalities and injuries is computed per 1,000 fires; average dollar loss is computed per fire and is rounded to the nearest $10. The 2007 and 2008 dollar loss values were adjusted to their equivalent 2009 dollar loss value.

Loss Measures for Reported Residential Building Fires by Urban/Nonurban Areas

(3-year average)

Residential Building Fires

Urban Suburban Rural

Deaths/1,000 Fires 4.4 6.6 9.4

Injuries/1,000 Fires 31.4 21.4 22.4

Dollar Loss/Fire $15,310 $24,830 $19,230

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Other Residential

Multifamily

One- and Two-Family

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

7.2

9.1

83.8

6.4

6.4

87.3

6.0

35.2

58.9

Reported Residential Building Fires by Property Use within Urban/Nonurban Areas

Urban Suburban Rural

Percent of Residential Building Fires

Sources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes. 20

Unknown

Investigation with Arson Module

Other Unintentional, Careless

Equipment Misoperation, Failure

Exposure

Natural

Other Equipment

Other Heat

Open Flame

Appliances

Electrical Malfunction

Cooking

Heating

Smoking

Playing with Heat Source

Intentional

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

24.0

0.7

8.3

3.5

1.8

1.9

0.9

3.6

4.9

1.8

8.6

18.1

16.2

1.4

0.6

3.8

22.2

0.7

7.2

3.4

2.4

2.4

1.1

3.6

5.0

2.0

7.8

18.2

19.5

1.3

0.5

2.8

15.2

0.9

4.3

2.8

1.8

1.1

1.0

2.7

3.8

2.0

5.2

43.3

9.5

1.9

0.6

3.9

Reported Residential Building Fire Causes within Urban/Nonurban Areas

Urban Suburban Rural

Percent of Residential Building FiresSources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

21

Unknown

Investigation with Arson Module

Other Unintentional, Careless

Equipment Misoperation, Failure

Exposure

Natural

Other Equipment

Other Heat

Open Flame

Appliances

Electrical Malfunction

Cooking

Heating

Smoking

Playing with Heat Source

Intentional

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

47.6

3.4

8.8

3.4

0.6

0.9

1.5

3.7

3.7

1.0

7.2

1.8

3.5

7.5

1.0

4.4

50.2

5.4

9.6

1.5

0.3

0.6

1.2

3.3

4.5

0.3

6.6

1.5

5.1

6.3

1.5

2.1

42.7

6.1

8.1

1.5

0.3

0.2

1.1

4.5

4.7

1.0

5.8

2.3

3.1

11.1

0.7

6.8

Reported Fatal Residential Building Fire Causes within Urban/Nonurban Areas

Urban Suburban Rural

Percent of Fatal Residential Building FiresSources: 2007-2009 NFIRS and Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) codes.

22

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Accessing NFIRS Web Based Report Summaries:

  Your fire department must participate in NFIRS

Contact your State NFIRS Reporting Representative in order to set up an account. State contacts may be found at:

http://www.usfa.dhs.gov/pocs/

Other NFIRS related questions may be directed to the NFIRS Support Center

Telephone: (888) 382-3827

Email :  fema-nfirshelp@dhs.gov

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Emerging Fire and EMS Challenges, Risks and

Opportunities for Research

Forward to the Future

“Man will not fly for 50 years.” Wilbur Wright, co-inventor of the airplane,

1901

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The First Manned Flight in History:

December 17, 1903

10:35 a.m.

Orville Wright: Distance covered 120 feet

Time aloft was 12 seconds

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United States Population

1990 - 249 million

2009 - 307 million

Approximately 23% Increase

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Worldwide Fire Situation

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Un

ite

d K

ing

do

m

Sw

ed

en

Sp

ain

Fra

nc

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No

rwa

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Au

str

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Fin

lan

d

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Hu

ng

ary

Ja

pa

n

De

nm

ark

64

.5

64

.0

52

.2

48

.0

46

.3

44

.1

43

.0

27

.0

26

.6

26

.6

25

.0

7.2

-11

.3

Per

cen

t o

f D

ecre

ase

Nation

FIRE DEATH RATE BY COUNTRYPercent of Decrease From 1979 to 2009

29

Worldwide Fire Situation

4.7 4.7

5.76.5

8.6 8.6

10.2

12.7 13.0

14.8

16.7

18.7

19.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Au

str

ia

Sp

ain

Un

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d K

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do

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Sw

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Fra

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No

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Un

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d S

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De

nm

ark

Ja

pa

n

Fin

lan

d

Hu

ng

ary

Dea

ths/

Mil

lio

n P

op

ula

tio

n

FIRE DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY(As Reported by WFS in 2009)

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Demographics

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Demographic Challenges

Ominous Impending Conditions

32

Demographic Challenges

High Risk Population 80 million Baby Boomers

Three leading causes of home deaths among the senior population are:

Trips and falls in the home Fires caused by portable space heaters Smoking and cooking fires

33

Demographic Challenges

Older Adult Fatalities in Home Fires Caused by Cooking

75> age group 3 times as likely to suffer a fire related death

85> age group 4 times more likely suffer a fire related death

34

Demographic Challenges

Approximately 85% of Fire Fatalities Every Year Occur in Residential Occupancies

77 % of Fire Related Injuries Occur in Residential Occupancies

35

Senior Population

36

Demographic Predictions Population 309 million now Growth projection 392 million by 2050 More than a 50 percent increase from the 1990 population

-13%

+40%

(U. S. Census)

37

38

Fire Growth Patterns

39

NIST Studies

Available Safe Escape Time (ASET)

Typical Household

NIST Indiana Dunes II Study (R35) in 2007

3 minutes ASET

Compared to a similar study in 1975

17 minute ASET

40

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From the Laboratory to the Field

42

Other Emerging Issues

Alternative Fuels

Antibiotic Resistant Infectious Diseases

Technology:Smart vehiclesRobotics Nanotechnology

43

Electric Cars Available

http://www.evsafetytraining.org/

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Photovoltaic’s

C3# – 138 Hz

C5 – 523.25 Hz

G7 – 3,136 Hz

Research on Sounder Technology

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Thank You!

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