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NOAA National Weather ServiceNOAA National Weather Service
Missouri River Forecaster’s Meeting
Kansas City, Missouri
November 2010
Ross WolfordSenior Operations Hydrologist
Missouri Basin River Forecast Centerhttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc
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Today’s PresentationToday’s Presentation
• General description of our forecast process
• Our responsibilities (deterministically)• How our model works• How we can change what the model does• How forecasts can differ from our model and other peoples estimates• Some forecasting challenges in 2010
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MBRFC Area of ResponsibilityMBRFC Area of Responsibility25 Major River Basins1.Upper Missouri River2.Big Horn River3.Yellowstone River4.Milk River5.Upper Dakota Tributaries6. Middle Dakota Tributaries7. Lower Dakota Tributaries8. North Platte River9. South Platte River10. James/Vermillion Rivers11.Big/Little Sioux Rivers 12.Loup River13.Elkhorn/Platte River14.Upper Missouri Tributaries15.Upper Republican River 16.Upper Smoky Hill River 17.Lower Republican River 18.Lower Smoky Hill River 19.Big Blue River20.Kansas River21.Marais Des Cygnes River22.Osage River 23.Lower Missouri Tributaries24.Grand/Chariton Rivers25.Missouri Mainstem
1
3
4
6
7
9
8
2
14
24
1211
10
23
13
17 1916
22
20
5
15
21
18
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Major Basins are divided into Major Basins are divided into about 1000 sub-basinsabout 1000 sub-basins
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Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterMissouri Basin River Forecast CenterObserved Period Estimated Precipitation
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Missouri Basin River Forecast CenterMissouri Basin River Forecast CenterForecast Precipitation
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Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model
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Hydrologic Model
Runoff from each basin routed downstream:
Runoff applied to unitgraphs Flow routed from basin to basin Flow adjusted at each gage site based on
current stage and rating Forecasted flow converted to stage based on
current rating
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Deterministic ForecastsDeterministic Forecasts
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What can forecasters change to What can forecasters change to affect model output?affect model output?
• Snowmelt rate, was precip rain or snow?, runoff, snowpack water equivalent, SCA, rainfall, soil water content of any “bucket”, use radar-mix or “gage only”, past or forecast precip, unit hydrograph shape and duration, most time series (e.g. routed water, forecast streamflow).
• Future changes to time series, runoff, and rain+melt mods do not function on “raw model” runs. *
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WHEN THINGS GO WRONGWHEN THINGS GO WRONG
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Rulo, Nebraska, June 13, 2010Rulo, Nebraska, June 13, 2010
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Rulo, Nebraska, June 14, 2010Rulo, Nebraska, June 14, 2010
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Rulo, Nebraska, June 16, 2010Rulo, Nebraska, June 16, 2010
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24-hour QPF June 13, 201024-hour QPF June 13, 2010
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24-hr Rainfall June 14, 201024-hr Rainfall June 14, 2010
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Platte R., Louisville, NE +30 to 50KPlatte R., Louisville, NE +30 to 50K
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Little Nemaha, Auburn, NE +20KLittle Nemaha, Auburn, NE +20K
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Tarkio River, Fairfax, Mo +20KTarkio River, Fairfax, Mo +20K
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Big Nemaha R., Falls City, NE Big Nemaha R., Falls City, NE +23K+23K
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Kansas River, Desoto, KS +40KKansas River, Desoto, KS +40K
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Missouri R, Herman, Mo +60K Missouri R, Herman, Mo +60K
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Ross Wolford
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc/
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Rulo RatingsRulo Ratings
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NWSRFS - St. Joseph, Mo 6-16-2010 NWSRFS - St. Joseph, Mo 6-16-2010
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QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSQPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSRaw Model Output
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QPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSQPF ENSEMBLE FORECASTSThe QPF Input
HPC 95% Confidence Interval QPF
8July 12, 2007 River Forecast Ensembles
Minimum QPF with 95% Confidence
Maximum QPF with 95% Confidence
HPC QPFMaximum Absolute
Error with 95% Confidence
-=
=
HPC QPFMaximum Absolute
Error with 95% Confidence
+
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Chronology of Forecasting EventsChronology of Forecasting Events
• 6:30-8:30 Review and manually adjust hourly Multisensor Precip Estimates ending at 12z. Automatic estimates every hour at about :20. Transfer to ldm for Corps every hour at :32.
• 6:30-7:00 Review and adjust QPF. Copy to ldm for Corps whenever QPF is run.
• 6:45 Automatic run of all rivers. Missouri River flows provided to NCRFC
• 7:00-9:30 Missouri River and tributaries models updated adjusting model states and inputs as needed. Missouri River flows updated and provided to NCRFC whenever model rerun. Call Corps as necessary to get gate changes.
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Chronology of Forecasting EventsChronology of Forecasting EventsContinuedContinued
• 8:20 Retrieve Corps RCC reservoir report
• 8:30-9:30 Releases for Bagnell Reservoir on Osage River provided by Ameren Power, typically well after 9:00
• 9:00-10:00 Issue Kansas and Missouri River daily forecasts. Products provided Corps every 10 minutes
• 9:10 Provide daily precipitation report to Corps via email
• 9:30, 10:00 Provide Missouri River tributary flows to Corps
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Chronology of Forecasting Events Chronology of Forecasting Events ContinuedContinued
• 10:16 Begin retrieving Kansas City Corps bulletin and reservoir release forecasts
• 10:35 Retrieve Omaha District bulletin
• 10:20 Provide QPF ensemble scenario forecasts to NCRFC, WFOs and Corps
• 11:00 Retrieve Missouri River forecasts from Corps RCC