NOAA/NWS Digital Services 1 Glenn Austin, Transition Manager AMS Corporate Forum Washington, DC...

NOAA/NWS Digital Services 1

Glenn Austin, Transition Manager

AMS Corporate ForumWashington, DC

March 9-10, 2006


Outline

• Background

• Current Capability

• Examples and Feedback

• Planned Enhancements

• Long-term Goals

• Opportunities


Background

VISION:

To meet customer and partner needs for high quality, accessible, and reliable digital

weather, water, and climate services.


User-Generated ProductsUser-Generated Products

Current CapabilityCollaborative-Forecasting Process

– Interactive– Collaborative– Information

Oriented

NWS Automated ProductsNWS Automated Products

TextText

GraphicGraphic

DigitalDigital

VoiceVoice

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%. National Digital National Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Local Digital Local Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Field Field OfficesOffices

National National CentersCenters

CollaborateCollaborate

Data and Science FocusData and Science Focus

National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance

High Resolution GridsHigh Resolution Grids


Current Capability

Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal:• Faster access to information in more

convenient formats through new pathways.

Fulfills NRC recommendation: • “Provide data and products in digital

form.” (Fair Weather Report; June 2003)

Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal:• Faster access to information in more

convenient formats through new pathways.

Fulfills NRC recommendation: • “Provide data and products in digital

form.” (Fair Weather Report; June 2003)


Current Capability

More weather data

Higher resolution forecasts

Visual displays of probability

User-defined products create business opportunities

Different Products for

Different Customers

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

The public, emergency managers and city planners use graphic products for detailed forecasts

Commercial weather companies, emergency managers, and others use grids to generate tailored products

Radio stations & public read text forecasts


Current CapabilityProduction

Experimental elements:• QPF• Snow Amount• Sky Cover• Significant Wave Height

Operational elements:• Maximum Temperature• Minimum Temperature• Temperature• Dew Point• Probability of Precipitation• Weather• Wind Direction• Wind Speed• Apparent Temperature *

• Relative Humidity *

* as of 3/15/06

Operational & experimental elements available for

CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam


Current CapabilityDistribution/Access

• FOS Server Access Service

• Anonymous ftp• Free software developed by the

Meteorological Development Laboratory decodes GRIB2 files and supports conversion to netCDF or GIS shapefiles

• Experimental XML Web Service

• Web Graphics


Current CapabilityAssessment

• Monthly, point-based verification available, comparing surface observations and operational NDFD forecast elements

• NDFD forecast element verification scores comparable to accuracy of legacy NWS forecasts and model guidance


Current CapabilityArchive

Operational NDFD elements available from NCDC through:

• Hierarchical Data Storage System (HDSS)http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsselect

• NOAA-National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS)

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#ndfd


Katrina’s Eye Forecast to Pass over New Orleans

Forecast issuedSaturday morning Aug 27


Apparent TemperatureJanuary 2006


Public Feedback

• “As a member of a fire department and EMS service we must constantly be aware of weather conditions and how they are going to change. We use the graphical forecasts to prepare for changing weather.”

• “I work as a Facilities Director for a juvenile correctional facility. We maintain 18 buildings and grounds. For scheduling of staff for snow removal or boiler plant shutdowns, your service is quite valuable.”

• “I love the ability to look at a forecast for a particular time period. This should be extremely valuable for us as farmers to know predicted cloud cover and precip. chance during the course of the day.”


Your Feedback

1. Are you accessing or using the NDFD information?

2. Is the information helping you achieve the results you need to satisfy your, or your customers’, needs?

3. If so, what positive impacts are you willing to share?

4. If not, what else can we do to help?


Unmet User Needs

• Relay critical weather information faster and more efficiently

• Provide higher spatial and temporal resolution• Support decision-making by making data more

interoperable• More hazardous weather information in digital formats


Planned Enhancements

Add as experimental elements during the next 12 months:

• Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities from the Tropical Prediction Center

• National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center

• Fire Weather Forecast Parameters

• Elements for Alaska


Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probability

Hurricane Wilma – Oct 2005



Improve over the next 12 months:

• Accuracy• Expand Guidance

e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS

• Produce Gridded Verification• Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields

• Resolution• Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour resolution

for Days 1-3• Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7



Improve over the next 12 months:

• Availability (reliability)• Transition to operational status XML web service• Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9%

uptime)

• Consistency• Improve and standardize forecasters’ grid-editing

tools• Modify collaboration thresholds and better procedures


Long-term Goals

• Increase spatial and temporal resolution

• Expand horizontal domain offshore and internationally

• Add a vertical dimension (aviation)

• Include more probabilistic information

• Add downscaled high-impact weather information

• Analysis of Record (objective analysis)


Long-term Goals

• Establish NDGDe.g., UV Index, probabilistic storm surge

• Create GIS Map Service

• Add NDFD to CONDUIT and NOAAPORT

• Interface with decision-assistance tools

• Establish one-stop shoppinge.g., NDFD, Warning polygons, Radar

• Evolve into NOAA-wide “Environmental Information Repository”


Supply Chain

1. NWS – e.g., NDFD

2. Retailers – e.g., CWSA, others

3. Customers

Success factor: Frequent exchange of data to know customers’ demands

• e.g., types of data, formats, consumption rates, etc.


Business Opportunities

• Like software, music, and literature, free open source data comes at a price (i.e., data isn’t everything and support may be what a customer needs.)

• Your value-added adaptation is often required to fit specific customers needs (especially large complex organizations with weather- sensitive operations.)


Questions, Comments?

[email protected]

301-713-1858 x150

http://weather.gov/ndfd/

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