Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation

2006 Load Forecast

Prepared by:

East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc.Forecasting and Market Analysis Department

June 2006

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Table of Contents• Introduction and Executive Summary 5

• Narrative 16

• Key Assumptions 42

• Methodology and Results 48

– Residential Forecast 53

– Small Commercial 58

– Large Commercial 60

– Other Forecast 62

– Peak Day Weather Scenarios 65

• RUS Form 341 68

Page Number

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IntroductionExecutive Summary

Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation (Nolin RECC) located in Elizabethtown, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in nine counties. This load forecast report contains Nolin RECC’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand.

 

Nolin RECC and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes.

 

EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Nolin RECC for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Nolin RECC. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 42.

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Executive Summary (continued)

The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Nolin RECC. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Nolin RECC uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of generation planning, transmission planning, demand-side planning, marketing analysis, and financial forecasting.

 

The complete load forecast for Nolin RECC is reported in Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.

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Year

ResidentialSales

(MWh)

SeasonalSales

(MWh)

SmallComm.Sales

(MWh)Public Buildings

(MWh)

LargeComm.Sales

(MWh)

OtherSales

(MWh)

TotalSales

(MWh)

OfficeUse

(MWh)%

Loss

PurchasedPower(MWh)

1990 253,444 0 49,629 0 78,543 1,070 382,686 263 3.6 397,1191991 277,141 0 52,259 0 88,269 1,105 418,774 302 4.6 439,3851992 274,942 0 51,570 0 89,864 1,133 417,509 319 4.6 437,8851993 311,279 0 59,927 0 96,315 1,569 469,090 357 2.6 482,1891994 304,558 0 59,873 0 96,626 508 461,565 158 4.5 483,5741995 326,152 0 66,331 0 107,287 972 500,741 1 4.2 522,8141996 339,641 0 78,198 0 112,032 1,008 530,879 22 3.7 551,4321997 333,487 0 78,864 0 123,788 1,037 537,176 344 4.9 565,0561998 350,905 0 87,882 0 126,818 1,071 566,677 846 3.3 586,8221999 356,214 0 91,691 0 124,635 1,089 573,629 739 4.4 600,8302000 379,217 0 100,244 0 120,415 1,224 601,100 854 3.9 626,3592001 375,057 0 105,110 0 126,875 1,315 608,357 859 3.8 632,9752002 405,632 0 113,273 0 153,208 1,368 673,480 968 3.6 699,6842003 407,558 0 112,796 0 162,079 1,377 683,810 1,024 3.8 711,5402004 418,111 0 102,154 0 165,659 1,394 687,318 906 4.8 723,0182005 453,278 0 104,746 0 175,489 1,418 734,931 1,055 3.8 764,7702006 450,874 0 108,924 0 184,933 1,448 746,180 1,050 3.8 776,7462007 459,284 0 113,319 0 191,092 1,476 765,171 1,050 3.8 796,4882008 473,463 0 117,360 0 197,201 1,503 789,527 1,050 3.8 821,8062009 488,154 0 121,358 0 203,481 1,529 814,523 1,050 3.8 847,7892010 502,245 0 125,036 0 218,171 1,555 847,007 1,050 3.8 881,5572011 514,521 0 128,384 0 224,706 1,581 869,192 1,050 3.8 904,6172012 528,919 0 131,739 0 231,321 1,607 893,585 1,050 3.8 929,9742013 543,009 0 135,087 0 237,995 1,632 917,724 1,050 3.8 955,0662014 556,024 0 138,314 0 244,714 1,657 940,709 1,050 3.8 978,9602015 569,010 0 141,577 0 259,730 1,683 971,999 1,050 3.8 1,011,4852016 582,552 0 145,036 0 266,506 1,708 995,801 1,050 3.8 1,036,2282017 595,656 0 148,834 0 273,299 1,733 1,019,521 1,050 3.8 1,060,8852018 609,761 0 152,763 0 280,106 1,758 1,044,388 1,050 3.8 1,086,7342019 624,249 0 156,753 0 286,922 1,784 1,069,708 1,050 3.8 1,113,0542020 640,157 0 160,656 0 293,746 1,809 1,096,368 1,050 3.8 1,140,7672021 655,893 0 164,768 0 300,575 1,835 1,123,070 1,050 3.8 1,168,5242022 671,441 0 168,851 0 307,408 1,860 1,149,560 1,050 3.8 1,196,0602023 686,776 0 172,858 0 322,508 1,885 1,184,027 1,050 3.8 1,231,8882024 702,814 0 176,909 0 329,346 1,911 1,210,980 1,050 3.8 1,259,9062025 716,730 0 180,877 0 336,185 1,936 1,235,729 1,050 3.8 1,285,633

2006 Load ForecastNolin RECC

MWh Summary

Table 1-1

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Winter Summer

Season

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

NoncoincidentPeak Demand

(MW) Year

PurchasedPower(MWh)

Load Factor(%)

1989 - 90 113.5 1990 90.6 1990 397,119 39.9%1990 - 91 99.4 1991 91.2 1991 439,385 50.5%1991 - 92 107.8 1992 92.6 1992 437,885 46.2%1992 - 93 116.0 1993 102.1 1993 482,189 47.5%1993 - 94 136.8 1994 100.5 1994 483,574 40.4%1994 - 95 121.4 1995 107.8 1995 522,814 49.2%1995 - 96 142.0 1996 115.0 1996 551,432 44.2%1996 - 97 137.6 1997 116.8 1997 565,056 46.9%1997 - 98 133.0 1998 118.6 1998 586,822 50.4%1998 - 99 138.3 1999 130.6 1999 600,830 49.6%1999 - 00 141.2 2000 128.1 2000 626,359 50.5%2000 - 01 158.1 2001 131.7 2001 632,975 45.7%2001 - 02 148.7 2002 142.7 2002 699,684 53.7%2002 - 03 174.7 2003 137.9 2003 711,540 46.5%2003 - 04 175.1 2004 137.0 2004 723,018 47.0%2004 - 05 172.5 2005 150.1 2005 764,770 50.6%2005 - 06 167.9 2006 150.0 2006 776,746 52.8%2006 - 07 182.9 2007 153.8 2007 796,488 49.7%2007 - 08 188.0 2008 158.0 2008 821,806 49.8%2008 - 09 194.4 2009 163.1 2009 847,789 49.8%2009 - 10 201.4 2010 169.0 2010 881,557 50.0%2010 - 11 206.5 2011 173.1 2011 904,617 50.0%2011 - 12 211.6 2012 177.1 2012 929,974 50.0%2012 - 13 217.8 2013 181.9 2013 955,066 50.1%2013 - 14 223.1 2014 186.1 2014 978,960 50.1%2014 - 15 229.7 2015 191.9 2015 1,011,485 50.3%2015- 16 234.6 2016 195.7 2016 1,036,228 50.3%2016 - 17 240.7 2017 200.7 2017 1,060,885 50.3%2017 - 18 246.4 2018 205.4 2018 1,086,734 50.3%2018 - 19 252.3 2019 210.1 2019 1,113,054 50.4%2019-2020 257.7 2020 214.5 2020 1,140,767 50.4%2020-2021 264.6 2021 220.1 2021 1,168,524 50.4%2021-2022 270.7 2022 225.0 2022 1,196,060 50.4%2022-2023 278.0 2023 231.5 2023 1,231,888 50.6%2023-2024 283.3 2024 235.9 2024 1,259,906 50.6%2024-2025 289.7 2025 241.2 2025 1,285,633 50.7%

Nolin RECC2006 Load Forecast

Peaks Summary

Table 1-1 (continued)

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Executive Summary (continued)

Overall Results

• Total sales are projected to grow by 2.6 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, compared to 3.0 percent which was projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1.

• Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 2.8 and 2.4 percent, respectively. Annual peaks shown in Figure 1-2.

• Load factor is approximately 50% for the forecast period.

See Figure 1-3.

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Executive SummaryOverall Results (continued)

TimePeriod Residential

Small Commercial

Large Commercial Other

Total Sales

1995-2000 3.1% 8.6% 2.3% 4.7% 3.7%2000-2005 3.6% 0.9% 7.8% 3.0% 4.1%2005-2010 2.1% 3.6% 4.5% 1.9% 2.9%2010-2015 2.5% 2.5% 3.5% 1.6% 2.8%2015-2020 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 1.5% 2.4%2020-2025 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 1.4% 2.4%

1995-2005 3.3% 4.7% 5.0% 3.9% 3.9%2005-2015 2.3% 3.1% 4.0% 1.7% 2.8%2015-2025 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Table 1-2Nolin RECC

2006 Load ForecastSummary of Sales Growth

5 Year Growth Rates

10 Year Growth Rates

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Figure 1-1 Average Annual Growth in Sales 2005-2025

2.3%

2.8%

3.3%

1.6%

2.6%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Residential Small Commercial

Large Commercial

Other Total Sales

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Figure 1-2Peak Demand Forecast Winter and Summer

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36

Su

m O

f S

ub

stat

ion

s P

eak

Dem

and

(M

W)

Winter History Winter Forecast Summer History Summer Forecast

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Figure 1-3Annual System Load Factor

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

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NarrativeTerritory

Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation, Kentucky 51 Hardin, with headquarters in Elizabethtown, Kentucky is located in north central Kentucky. It presently provides service for consumers in nine counties: Breckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Green, Hardin, Hart, Larue, Meade, and Taylor (see Figure 1-4).

 The north and central portion of the service area has experienced a reduced growth rate in the past three-year period. This reduced rate has ended. Growth rate should show a steady increase for the next two or three years, then level off with a moderate increase continuing. Growth is anticipated for residential, small and large commercial businesses. The remainder of the system, the south, west and east regions have experienced a steady growth pattern. This trend in residential growth in these areas is expected to continue.

 The south, west and east regions of the system are historically established agricultural areas and are expected to remain primarily agricultural. However, there has been an increase in residential construction in the past two to three years.

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Narrative (continued)Counties Served

Nolin RECC provides service to members in 9 counties.

Figure 1-4

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Other Counties (7)

LaRue County

Hardin County

Number of Members

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Narrative (continued)

Elizabethtown is located forty miles south of Louisville, Kentucky at the intersections of Interstate 65, which is a north-south six-lane highway. The Bluegrass Parkway extends east to Lexington and the Western Kentucky Parkway extends westward to Henderson, Owensboro, Paducah and other population centers. A new four-lane highway from Elizabethtown to Hodgenville to the southeast has been completed and is now creating residential and industrial growth in the Larue County service area.

These major highways intersecting in Elizabethtown have contributed to the growth in industrial and commercial loads in the form of motels, fast food restaurants, service stations and associated loads. These highways have made the Elizabethtown area highly desirable for residences and industry due to the ease of commuting to jobs in the Louisville area and to Fort Knox, which is just north of Radcliff on the north side of the system.

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Narrative (continued)

The Elizabethtown Airport has a 5000-foot runway, which is accommodating corporate jets, charter and private aircraft. The Airport is adjacent to the Elizabethtown Industrial Park of which Nolin will serve some 400 acres as it develops. Presently, Nolin is serving three industries within the park. Nolin will also serve most of the "bedroom" areas adjacent to the industrial park.

 

In June 1972 the Kentucky General Assembly voted into law, rules setting boundary lines between all electric utilities in the state. The boundary maps were updated in 1984. These boundaries were agreed on by all the electric utilities and were filed with the Public Service Commission of Kentucky.

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Narrative (continued)Commercial Loads

Hardin County Schools - The Hardin County Board of Education opened a new elementary school (Meadowview) in Radcliff on Nolin's service in August 1987. The Board has constructed a new middle school (Bluegrass) in Nolin's territory and it opened in August 1990. A new high school (John Hardin) was completed in 2001. Another new middle school is planned to the south of Elizabethtown in the next 2-3 years but a permanent site has not been selected, however, preliminary site investigations have indicated that it will be located in Nolin's service area. This could possibly be a 1000 KVA load since the area is not served by natural gas. Lincoln Trail Elementary School has been upgraded from a small single-phase load to a 500-600 KW three phase load and is in operation. A new elementary school will be located on Ring Road across from First Federal Savings Bank in Nolin’s service territory, natural gas is available on the property. Unknown KVA load at this time.

 

Commerce Park (Elizabethtown Area) - Commerce Park is a privately owned development attempting to attract interstate highway travelers. The Coca Cola Museum has been converted to the Elizabethtown Tourism and Convention Bureau, seven motels, and seven restaurants have been opened and are in full operation. Future load growth in this area is expected to continue with the addition of two more restaurants.

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Narrative (continued)Industrial Parks

Elizabethtown Industrial Park - AGC formally A. P. Technoglass, an Automotive glass manufacturing plant, has been constructed in the Industrial Park and is served by Nolin (20+ MW Load), and is in full production. This is a $100,000,000 plant owned by Asahi Glass Ltd. of Japan. It employs approximately 600 employees.

Two new industrial park sites are now ready for development. The T.J. Patterson Industrial Park has added an additional 529 acres adjacent to the existing Hughes Center of Commerce in Elizabethtown. Nolin will serve approximately 25% of this location. In Radcliff, the MillPond Industrial Park has 100+ acres available – this park is 100% served by Nolin. The first tenant, U.S. Calvary has announced plans to build a 300,000 sq. ft. warehouse on site with plans to open 2007. There is a very large (20 – 40 MW) Japanese prospect looking at property in the park; they plan to announce later this summer where they plan to locate.

A 1551-acre site in Glendale has been purchased by the State Economic Development Cabinet. This site hopes to attract a major automotive manufacturer. Nolin should serve approximately 90 percent of the residential demand created by the new jobs generated in this area. Each 100 industrial jobs create 64 service jobs according to the University of Louisville Department of Urban Studies.

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Narrative (continued)

Larue County Industrial Park - Hodgenville - This 100 acre fully developed park is located near Hodgenville on the new Lincoln Parkway. Fifty percent of this park is served by Nolin. A Japanese Auto Parts Manufacturer has purchased the last remaining site and is in full operation. The Industrial Foundation is actively pursuing new land to expand the park.

Small Commercial - This classification consists of convenience type food markets: Minute Mart, Nite Owl, etc., service stations, health clubs, banks, savings and loan offices and medical centers. This group also includes various shops located in malls. The number of small commercial users in the last few years has increased above the historical trend due to the development of malls brought on by population increases in the urban areas and also by cities extending their boundaries through annexation, providing city services which help to increase population in these areas. Elizabethtown and Radcliff city limits now meet on the north side of Elizabethtown.

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Narrative (continued)Roads and Highways

A new four-lane highway in the northern part of the system from Radcliff to Lebanon Junction, connecting with Interstate 65 is now complete. This road will open up a more desirable thoroughfare for traveling from Radcliff and Fort Knox to Louisville. This should increase new residential consumers and some commercial services, as it will make it easier to commute to jobs in the Louisville area.

 

U.S. Highway 62 has been widened to four lanes from Elizabethtown to the west of Cecilia Junction. The highway is the major artery for traveling to the Elizabethtown Industrial Park. It has been suggested that the reason Toyota and Isuzu did not select Elizabethtown for their plant location was the lack of a four-lane highway to and from the park. The road now serves AGC formally

A. P. Technoglass and the rest of the park.

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Narrative (continued)

The City of Elizabethtown has completed Ring Road, a four-lane road around the north side of the City from U.S. 62 East of Elizabethtown to U.S. 62 West of Elizabethtown. Future plans also extend the four lanes from U.S. 62 (Leitchfield Road) South to Western Kentucky Parkway. Approximately three miles of Ring Road is zoned commercial, two miles residential and two miles are through the Industrial Park. This road is already attracting residential subdivisions, apartment complexes, small commercial businesses and one industrial load for Nolin. Nolin serves approximately 85 percent of the entire length of the road. We anticipate fast growth in the commercial and residential areas of the road. A Wal-Mart superstore and a Lowe’s superstore were opened in late 1995. These stores have a total load of approximately 2700 KVA.

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Narrative (continued)Residential Class

The Residential Class is made up of three types of users: 

Minimum/Low Users such as: well pumps, barns, electric fences, security lights, vacant but connected houses, and occupied but low consumption homes that use other than electric heat sources and basically use only electric lighting. There are no recreational areas or resorts in the coverage area so seasonal loads are almost non-existent.

 In January 2005 the average number of members with minimum bills was 766. In January 2006 the average number of members with minimum bills was 751. Nolin does not have a minimum tariff filed for kWh, but does have a $5.00 customer charge.  

Average Users in the Residential Class are made up of: non-electrically heated homes; low kWh consumption homes with air-to-air heat pumps, and ground source heat pumps, super insulation, and "Energy-Wise" owners. Others include those who use some supplemental heat sources such as wood burning stoves, farms and farm buildings. For 2005, the average monthly residential usage was 1349 kWh.

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Narrative (continued)Residential Class

High Users - Most, but not all high kWh users are all-electric houses. Usage depends on many factors including: size of house, amount of insulation, type of heating system and energy awareness of the owner. Other high users include:

   A. Farms : Dairy, hog, chicken, cattle feeding, grain drying and workshops. 

B. Mobile Homes and Double Wide Mobile Homes : Often these high users are poorly insulated, not underpinned and use high kWh consuming electric furnaces. Most of the consumers in mobile homes are not energy aware and due to the nature of the construction of the mobile home use more electricity than similar sized stick built homes. Hardin County has a very high number of mobile home parks especially in the Fort Knox-Radcliff-Elizabethtown area near the military base.

 C. Grain Bins : Starting in 1974 Electric Grain Drying became very poplar. Many new installations were added as all-electric or large service entrances for gas-fired dryers were put into service. This type of service has a tendency to distort usage patterns due to the fact the grain bin is only used October through December and only intermittently in the spring months. Some months of the year will produce only a minimum bill, but when in use consumption of 10,000 kWh in one month would not be unusual. Although new grain bin operations have not come on line as rapidly recently, there are still a few each year.

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Narrative (continued)Energy consuming equipment used by the different types of residential users are as follows:

 1. Minimum/Low Users - It is safe to say that the minimum user will not use energy

using equipment such as: an electric heater, range, water heater or air conditioner. A low use consumer could have a small electric water heater and may have an electric range. More than likely neither of these is present and only lighting, refrigeration, etc., would be used.

 2. Average Users - An average consumer uses 1349 kWh per month (2005

average residential consumer) and will have an electric range, electric water heater, and probably one or two window air conditioners. No electric heat would be used unless a heat pump with super insulated house design and supplemental wood or other heat were also used.

 3. High Users - A high use consumer would usually have a large all-electric home

or a mobile home with electric heating, central air conditioning, water heating and range. This consumer would be very energy aware in his habits, house construction and insulation. Factors contributing to high use include more heated area, less conservation awareness, less insulation and larger families.

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Narrative (continued)

Different types of heating equipment also affect the amount of kWh used. Some of the types used and the approximate efficiency of each are:

ceiling cable, wall heaters, baseboard - (100 percent efficiency);

heat pump - (125-150 percent efficiency);

ground source heat pump - (200-300 percent efficiency).

The average heat pump has 15 kW of supplemental electric strip heaters. The average ground source system has 7.5 to 10 kW of strip heaters. Air conditioners: both central "whole house" units, and window units, and free-standing ranges, cooktops, conventional and microwave ovens are also common.

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Narrative (continued)End-Use Survey Results

An End-Use Survey was completed in 2005 by East Kentucky Power Cooperative. The survey was sent to a random selected sample of our members as well as members of the other 16 coops of the power supplier. Some the observations from the survey include:

 1. Electric  2. Of  3. Of those surveyed, 8 percent have a wood/coal stove for heating. 4. Gas is used by 30 percent as their main heating method. 5. Electric clothes dryers are present in 97 percent of the homes; 96 percent

have automatic clothes washers;  6. Electric ranges and microwave ovens are present in 92 and 95 percent of

the households, respectively. 7. Frost-free refrigerators are present in 95 percent of households, while 68

percent have automatic dishwashers. 8. Of the users, 67 percent of all residences have a home computer.

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Narrative (continued)Natural gas is supplied to the two largest urban areas served by Nolin RECC by Texas Gas Transmission (TGT) in Elizabethtown and Louisville Gas & Electric (LG&E) in Radcliff. Currently TGT is allowing all new consumers within and outside the city limits of Elizabethtown to be connected, and new gas mains are being run to both new and existing subdivisions.

Several miles of new gas line were built from 2001 to 2003. In 2001, with a customer base of 8,169, the city of Elizabethtown installed 117 new gas taps, 3,970 feet of new service line, and 8,148 feet of new main line. In 2002, 112 new gas taps, 3,318 feet of new service line, and 1,987 feet of new main line were installed and the customer base increased to 8,281 customers. Customer base increased again in 2003 with 8,378 customers. Also in 2003, 97 new gas taps, 3,982 feet of new service line, and 19,320 feet of new main line were installed.

According to city officials, additional gas lines will be installed in the future as growth and demand dictate. LG&E is allowing unlimited connections anywhere in their service area. It looks as though even with the increase in gas prices, the demand for natural gas is still high. Marketing for both natural gas and propane is very aggressive in the service area.

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Narrative (continued)Use of wood as a supplementary heat source by means of both wood burning stoves and fireplaces has decreased in the last few years. The end-use survey shows that 14 percent of residences have some provision for use of wood as a contributing heat source. Under optimum conditions, as much as 20 percent of winter energy consumption for an individual residence might be attributed to wood heat.

Even then, however, only one day of non-use of wood heat during severe weather places the full demand of the electric heat on the system. Steadily increasing retail prices of wood would tend to discourage its long term use. Even smaller homes which come on service with wood as primary heat sources will have electrical entrances of sufficient size to accommodate electric heat if it should be desired. Homes destroyed by fire, attributed to wood burning, has tripled in the past few years. Insurance rates are increasing or coverage refused if wood heating equipment is improperly installed in homes.

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Narrative (continued)

Exotic sources of energy such as solar, including passive solar, wind, etc., have been utilized in a very limited manner in this coverage area. Due to high initial fixed costs and questionable performance, these supplemental sources are not assumed to have any noticeable effect within the next 10 years. Nolin has had no request for cogeneration from anyone.

 

Nolin has been instrumental in encouraging members to install approximately 530 ground coupled heating systems in homes throughout the service area, with 27 of those system being installed from 2004 to 2005. These systems have become the comfort system of choice for most custom built homes today. Air-to-Air Heat Pumps have been promoted to members who desire Central Air Conditioning and use a fossil fuel such as gas or oil as a back up system.

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Narrative (continued)Terrain

Nolin Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation is located in Elizabethtown, Hardin County, Kentucky. It serves rural counties of Hardin and Larue all within the North Central Region of Kentucky. Flood plains of the Ohio, Salt, and Rolling Fork Rivers extend along the northern and eastern boundaries of Hardin County. The Rolling Fork River flood plain also lies along the northeastern boundary of Larue County. In the remainder of the two-county area the streams are entrenched to a moderate depth and have narrow flood plains.

The topography is predominantly undulating to rolling uplands. A large area of intermittent karst topography extends south from Radcliff in northern Hardin County through Franklin Cross Roads, White Mills and Sonora to the Hart County line. This area of karst topography also includes the west central and southwestern parts of Larue County. The landscape in these karst areas is dotted with sink like depressions. Depressions also occur in some other places where the underlying rock is limestone.

Much of the development in Hardin County has taken place near the Radcliff and Elizabethtown urban areas, while Larue County has developed generally. The Radcliff service area is impacted by the immediate vicinity of Fort Knox and serves as its bedroom to a large degree.

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Narrative (continued)Soils

Approximately 65 percent of the soils in Hardin County and 83 percent in Larue County are currently in farms. Hardin County has approximately 2150 farms of 118 acres each, Larue County 1220 farms of 113 acres each, according to the Bureau of Census. The remaining lands are wooded areas, or make up the urban centers. Soil associations in Nolin's service area are as detailed in this section.

 Soil Associations of Hardin County 1. Frondorf-Sadler-Ramsey Association - Nearly level to moderately steep, moderately well

drained and well drained, deep and moderately deep soils on broad ridge tops and upper side slopes; and shallow somewhat excessively drained, steep soils on hillsides.

 2. Crider-Pembroke-Cumberland Association - Gentle sloping to moderately steep, deep,

well drained soils on karst uplands. 3. Caneyville-Hagerstown Association - Moderately deep and deep, well drained

moderately steep to gentle sloping soils and Rock outcrop on karst uplands. 4. Sonora-Gatton-Riney Association - Deep gently sloping and sloping, well drained and

moderately well drained soils on narrow to moderately broad ridges and side slopes; and deep, well drained soils on narrow ridges and hillsides.

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Narrative (continued)Soils

5. Crider-Vertrees-Nicholson Association - Nearly level to sloping, deep, well drained and moderately well drained soils on broad ridges and side slopes; and deep well drained, sloping to steep soils and narrow ridges and hillsides.

 6. Garmon-Caneyville-Lenberg Association - Very steep to moderately steep, moderately deep, well drained soils on hillsides, narrow ridges, and foot slopes.

 7. Lawrence-Nolin-Otwell Association - Nearly level and gently sloping, deep, somewhat poorly drained to well drained, alluvial soils on stream terraces and flood plains.

 8. McGary-Markland-Nolin Association - Nearly level and sloping, deep, somewhat poorly drained and well drained soils on broad stream terraces and narrow flood plains.

 Soil Associations in Larue County

 1. Riney-Waynesboro Association - Sloping to steep, deep, well drained soils on narrow ridges and hillsides.

 2. Crider-Pembroke-Cumberland Association - Gently sloping to moderately steep, deep, well drained soils on karst uplands.

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Narrative (continued)Soils

3. Caneyville-Hagerstown Association - Moderately deep and deep, well drained, moderately steep to gently sloping soils and Rock outcrop on karst uplands.

 4. Sonora-Gatton-Riney Association - Deep gently sloping and sloping, well drained and moderately well drained soils on narrow to moderately broad ridges and side slopes; and deep, well drained soils on narrow ridges and hillsides.

 5. Crider-Vertrees-Nicholson Association - Nearly level to sloping, deep, well drained and moderately well drained soils on broad ridges and side slopes; and deep well drained, sloping to steep soils on narrow ridges and hillsides.

 6. Garmon-Caneyville-Lenberg Association - Very steep, steep and moderately steep, moderately deep, well drained soils on hillsides, narrow ridges, and foot slopes.

 7. Lawrence-Nolin-Otwell Association - Nearly level and gently sloping, deep, somewhat poorly drained to well drained, alluvial soils on stream terraces and flood plains.

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Narrative (continued)Waterways

The service area drains its surface water into the Rough, Salt and Nolin Rivers or their tributaries. The following table lists major streams in each watershed.

ROUGH RIVER SALT RIVER NOLIN RIVER

 

Meeting Creek Otter Creek Valley Creek

Linders Creek Rolling Fork E. Rhudes Creek

Cedar Creek South Fork

Clear Creek North Fork

Youngers Creek McDougall

 

The service area includes some of Rough River Reservoir.

 

38

Narrative (continued)Climate

In Hardin and Larue Counties summers are hot in the valleys and slightly cooler in the hills; winters are moderately cold. Rain is fairly heavy throughout the year and heaviest in winter. Snow falls nearly every winter, but the snow cover usually lasts only a few days. In winter the average temperature is 30 degrees F and the average daily minimum is 27 degrees. The lowest recorded temperature of -32 degrees occurred in western Hardin County in January 1994. In summer the average temperature is 76 degrees and the average daily maximum is 81.9 degrees. The highest temperature recorded was 106 degrees in July 1999.

 

Of the total annual precipitation 24 inches, or 51 percent, generally falls during the period April through September. Thunderstorms number about 45 each year, 22 of which occur in summer.

 

The average seasonal snowfall is 14.6 inches. On the average, 5 days have at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, but the number of days varies greatly from year to year.

39

Narrative (continued)Climate

The average relative humidity in mid-afternoon is about 60 percent. Humidity is higher at

night in all seasons, and the average at dawn is about 80 percent. Possible sunshine is 67 percent in summer and 43 percent in winter. The prevailing wind is from the south, southwest. Average wind speed is highest, 10 miles per hour, in March.

 

An analysis was made of the Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) for the Louisville, KY reporting station. This analysis indicates that in the heating seasons between 1991 and 2003, four years had HDD above the normal of 4352 and nine years were below the normal. The CDD analysis between 1991 and 2003 indicates eight years above the normal of 1443 and five years below the normal. This analysis indicates the weather sensitivity of this system. This sensitivity has been taken into consideration in our projections with all projections made to reflect normal weather conditions. However, variations due to unusual weather conditions can be experienced and the system must be designed for these conditions.

40

Narrative (continued)Nolin RECC MembersDemographic Information

• There is an average of 2.43 people per household.

• 52% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater.

• 22% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle being most popular.

• 27% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.

41

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42

Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates

• EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.

43

Key Assumptions (continued)Economic

EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

(%) Change

1990 964,002 0.4% 494,930 -2.0% 468,383 3.1% 5.0% -11.5% $29,174 -0.6% $26,677 0.5% $27,673 0.0%

1991 967,773 0.4% 487,991 -1.4% 467,253 -0.2% 6.1% 20.4% $29,239 0.2% $26,826 0.6% $27,719 0.2%

1992 975,464 0.8% 492,143 0.9% 474,695 1.6% 5.5% -9.1% $30,554 4.5% $27,908 4.0% $28,610 3.2%

1993 990,659 1.6% 500,123 1.6% 494,158 4.1% 4.9% -11.4% $30,764 0.7% $28,023 0.4% $28,287 -1.1%

1994 1,000,603 1.0% 507,991 1.6% 506,843 2.6% 4.3% -12.8% $30,164 -2.0% $28,625 2.1% $28,608 1.1%

1995 1,009,902 0.9% 518,420 2.1% 517,747 2.2% 4.5% 4.7% $30,981 2.7% $29,253 2.2% $28,966 1.3%

1996 1,015,901 0.6% 518,000 -0.1% 526,646 1.7% 4.6% 2.8% $31,439 1.5% $29,995 2.5% $29,526 1.9%

1997 1,024,142 0.8% 533,730 3.0% 534,561 1.5% 4.5% -2.7% $32,041 1.9% $30,730 2.4% $30,006 1.6%

1998 1,032,925 0.9% 539,000 1.0% 547,361 2.4% 3.6% -19.1% $33,452 4.4% $32,828 6.8% $31,781 5.9%

1999 1,043,819 1.1% 552,734 2.5% 559,653 2.2% 3.8% 5.6% $34,438 2.9% $33,450 1.9% $32,045 0.8%

2000 1,054,288 1.0% 562,907 1.8% 565,970 1.1% 3.6% -5.9% $34,533 0.3% $34,917 4.4% $33,119 3.4%

2001 1,060,834 0.6% 554,875 -1.4% 556,479 -1.7% 4.7% 31.5% $34,714 0.5% $34,604 -0.9% $32,620 -1.5%

2002 1,067,926 0.7% 545,484 -1.7% 543,802 -2.3% 5.5% 16.5% $35,106 1.1% $35,945 3.9% $33,659 3.2%

2003 1,076,288 0.8% 537,325 -1.5% 540,482 -0.6% 5.9% 8.2% $35,596 1.4% $36,356 1.1% $33,779 0.4%

2004 1,084,605 0.8% 542,116 0.9% 547,046 1.2% 5.1% -14.6% $35,996 1.1% $36,867 1.4% $33,991 0.6%

2005 1,091,625 0.6% 548,273 1.1% 556,333 1.7% 5.1% 0.3% $36,426 1.2% $37,469 1.6% $34,324 1.0%

2006 1,098,806 0.7% 554,161 1.1% 565,105 1.6% 5.1% 0.2% $35,996 -1.2% $38,047 1.5% $34,626 0.9%

2007 1,106,385 0.7% 559,643 1.0% 573,065 1.4% 5.1% 0.5% $36,426 1.2% $38,629 1.5% $34,914 0.8%

2008 1,113,740 0.7% 565,297 1.0% 581,383 1.5% 5.1% -0.6% $36,769 0.9% $39,159 1.4% $35,160 0.7%

2009 1,121,504 0.7% 570,169 0.9% 588,219 1.2% 5.0% -1.0% $37,042 0.7% $39,666 1.3% $35,368 0.6%

2010 1,129,719 0.7% 574,165 0.7% 593,399 0.9% 5.0% 0.1% $37,281 0.6% $40,102 1.1% $35,498 0.4%

2015 1,171,623 0.7% 592,266 0.6% 615,771 0.7% 5.0% -0.1% $38,370 0.6% $42,070 1.0% $35,907 0.2%

2020 1,216,391 0.8% 617,126 0.8% 649,461 1.1% 5.0% -0.2% $38,995 0.3% $44,473 1.1% $36,562 0.4%

2025 1,267,709 0.8% 644,495 0.9% 686,080 1.1% 5.0% 0.2% $39,474 0.2% $46,981 1.1% $37,060 0.3%

2030 1,320,322 0.8% 670,189 0.8% 719,430 1.0% 5.0% -0.1% $39,946 0.2% $49,359 1.0% $37,384 0.2%

Notes: Wages & Per Capita Income are in constant 2006 dollars; Income is in millions of constant 2005 dollars.

Growth rates are average annual changes. Data for 2004 and 2005 are simulated.

Forecast

Long-Term Forecast

Actual

Real Per Capita Income

Regional SummaryCentral North Economic Region History and Forecast

Unemployment Rate

Regional Income

Population Labor ForceTotal

EmploymentAverage Real

Wages

44

Key Assumptions (continued)Share of Regional Homes Served

Nolin RECC Share of Regional Homes Served

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Sh

are

(%)

Nolin RECC’s market share will steadily increase for the forecast period. See Figure 1-5 below.

45

Key Assumptions (continued)Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources

Figure 1-6Agriculture

4%

Education4%

Construction6%

Manufacturing10%

Public Admin (Gov't)10%

Retail & Service15%

Retirement39%

Other12%

46

Key Assumptions (continued)Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region

Figure 1-7

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005

Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Eff

icie

ncy

Rat

ing

Heat Pump Heating (HSPF)

Heat Pump Cooling (SEER)

Central Air (SEER)

Room Air (EER)

Water Heating (EF)

47

Key Assumptions (continued)Weather

• Weather data is from the Louisville weather station.

• Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.

48

Methodology and ResultsIntroduction

This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Nolin RECC as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5.

 

A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Nolin RECC experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.

49

Table 1-3

YearkWh Purchased

And GeneratedChange kWh Sold Change kWh Loss % Loss

Annual

Load

Factor

Average

Number Of

Consumers

Miles

Of

Line

Consumers

Per Mile

Cost Of

Purchased Power

Cents

/ kWh

1993 482,189,458 469,090,191 12,742,033 2.6% 47.6% 21,929 2,371 9.2 $19,170,758 4.0

1994 483,574,119 0.3% 461,564,663 -1.6% 21,851,123 4.5% 40.4% 22,488 2,405 9.4 $19,430,400 4.0

1995 522,813,726 8.1% 500,740,604 8.5% 22,072,258 4.2% 50.3% 23,012 2,436 9.4 $18,152,462 3.5

1996 551,431,570 5.5% 530,876,142 6.0% 20,533,299 3.7% 45.9% 23,492 2,471 9.5 $18,287,638 3.3

1997 565,055,898 2.5% 537,175,652 1.2% 27,536,327 4.9% 48.1% 23,978 2,508 9.6 $18,226,101 3.2

1998 586,822,136 3.9% 566,676,655 5.5% 19,299,893 3.3% 54.4% 24,640 2,548 9.7 $18,607,949 3.2

1999 600,829,838 2.4% 573,729,028 1.2% 26,361,805 4.4% 50.6% 25,441 2,594 9.8 $20,135,590 3.4

2000 626,359,131 4.2% 601,100,207 4.8% 24,404,443 3.9% 49.7% 26,180 2,638 9.9 $21,653,403 3.5

2001 632,974,743 1.1% 608,356,639 1.2% 23,758,871 3.8% 58.6% 26,918 2,682 10.2 $23,527,633 3.8

2002 699,683,686 10.5% 673,479,953 10.7% 25,235,633 3.6% 55.3% 27,628 2,722 10.1 $25,195,807 3.6

2003 711,539,918 1.7% 683,809,685 1.5% 26,706,041 3.8% 49.0% 28,301 2,763 10.2 $27,042,338 3.8

2004 723,017,661 1.6% 687,318,201 0.5% 34,793,349 4.8% 48.5% 29,051 2,802 10.4 $30,069,179 4.2

2005 764,769,743 5.8% 734,931,289 6.9% 29,732,966 3.9% 52.2% 29,780 2,841 10.5 $38,083,004 5.0

4.0% 3.7

170.2

167.1

144.0

123.3

144.3

165.8

Average

Nolin RECC Comparative Annual Operating DataPeak

Demand

(MW)

115.7

136.8

118.7

134.0

137.0

123.2

135.7

50

Table 1-4

Year Consumerskwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo. Consumers

kwh /

Mo.Consumers

kwh /

Mo.

1993 21,114 1,229 0 799 6,250 3 2,675,425 13 10,056 0

1994 21,568 1,177 0 901 5,538 2 4,026,084 17 2,488 0

1995 22,044 1,233 0 949 5,825 2 4,470,283 17 4,763 0

1996 22,487 1,259 0 985 6,616 2 4,667,981 18 4,655 0

1997 22,945 1,211 0 1,012 6,494 2 5,157,831 19 4,549 0

1998 23,551 1,242 0 1,066 6,870 2 5,284,102 21 4,249 0

1999 24,247 1,224 0 1,171 6,532 2 5,193,129 21 4,321 0

2000 24,733 1,278 0 1,422 5,875 2 5,017,311 23 4,435 0

2001 25,397 1,231 0 1,494 5,863 2 5,286,467 25 4,383 0

2002 26,019 1,299 0 1,578 5,982 2 6,383,646 29 3,931 0

2003 26,622 1,276 0 1,647 5,707 2 6,753,285 30 3,826 0

2004 27,344 1,274 0 1,675 5,082 2 6,902,475 30 3,874 0

2005 27,999 1,349 0 1,750 4,988 2 7,312,054 29 4,074 0

10 Year Avg. 596 12 80 -84 0 284,177 1 -69

5 Year Avg. 653 14 66 -177 0 458,949 1 -72

2 Year Avg. 689 37 52 -360 0 279,384 -1 124

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Consumers 454 476 443 458 606 696 486 664 622 603 722 655

kWh/ month -52 56 26 -47 30 -17 53 -47 69 -23 -2 75

Annual Changes I n Nolin's Residential Class

Nolin RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway LightingPublic Authorities

51

Table 1-5

YearkWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

kWh

Sales

%

Change

1993 311,279,088 0 59,927,003 96,315,310 1,568,790 0

1994 304,558,063 -2.2% 0 59,873,004 -0.1% 96,626,020 0.3% 507,576 -67.6% 0

1995 326,151,586 7.1% 0 66,330,600 10.8% 107,286,800 11.0% 971,618 91.4% 0

1996 339,641,401 4.1% 0 78,197,798 17.9% 112,031,550 4.4% 1,005,393 3.5% 0

1997 333,486,692 -1.8% 0 78,863,942 0.9% 123,787,950 10.5% 1,037,068 3.2% 0

1998 350,905,080 5.2% 0 87,882,287 11.4% 126,818,450 2.4% 1,070,838 3.3% 0

1999 356,214,189 1.5% 0 91,790,924 4.4% 124,635,100 -1.7% 1,088,815 1.7% 0

2000 379,216,957 6.5% 0 100,243,633 9.2% 120,415,470 -3.4% 1,224,147 12.4% 0

2001 375,056,829 -1.1% 0 105,109,685 4.9% 126,875,216 5.4% 1,314,909 7.4% 0

2002 405,631,622 8.2% 0 113,272,760 7.8% 153,207,500 20.8% 1,368,071 4.0% 0

2003 407,558,042 0.5% 0 112,795,558 -0.4% 162,078,850 5.8% 1,377,235 0.7% 0

2004 418,110,786 2.6% 0 102,153,543 -9.4% 165,659,400 2.2% 1,394,472 1.3% 0

2005 453,278,403 8.4% 0 104,745,835 2.5% 175,489,300 5.9% 1,417,751 1.7% 0

2 Year 22,860,181 5.5% -4,024,862 -3.6% 6,705,225 4.1% 20,258 1.5%

5 Year 14,812,289 3.6% 900,440 0.9% 11,014,766 7.8% 38,721 3.0%

10 Year 12,712,682 3.3% 3,841,524 4.7% 6,820,250 5.0% 44,613 3.9%

Average Annual Change

Nolin RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data

ResidentialResidential

Seasonal

Commercial /

I ndustrial

(1 MW Or Less)

Commercial /

I ndustrial

( Over 1 MW)

Public Street /

Highway Lighting

Public

Authorities

52

Methodology and Results (continued)

The preliminary forecast was presented to Nolin RECC staff. Changes were made to the forecast as needed based on new information, such as new large loads or subdivisions. In some instances, other assumptions were changed based on insights from Nolin RECC staff. The forecast was reviewed by the Rural Utilities Services (RUS) Field Representative. Input from EKPC and Nolin RECC results in the best possible forecast.

53

Methodology and Results (continued)Residential Forecast

Residential customers are analyzed by means of regression analysis with resulting coefficients used to prepare customer projections. Regressions for residential customers are typically a function of regional economic and demographic variables. Two variables that are very significant are the numbers of households by county in each member system's economic region and the percent of total households served by the member system. Table 1-6 and Figure 1-8 report Nolin RECC’s customer forecast.

The residential energy sales were projected using a statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) approach. This method of modeling incorporates end-use forecasts and can be used to allocate the monthly and annual forecasts into end-use components. This method, like end-use modeling, requires detailed information about appliance saturation, appliance use, appliance efficiencies, household characteristics, weather characteristics, and demographic and economic information. The SAE approach segments the average household use into heating, cooling, and water heating end-use components. See Figure 1-9, page 59. This model accounts for appliance efficiency improvements. Table 1-6 reports Nolin RECC’s energy forecast.

54

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

MonthlyAverage(kWh)

AnnualChange(kWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 19,566 1,079 253,4441991 20,059 493 2.5 1,151 72 6.7 277,141 23,697 9.31992 20,700 641 3.2 1,107 -45 -3.9 274,942 -2,199 -0.81993 21,114 414 2.0 1,229 122 11.0 311,279 36,337 13.21994 21,568 454 2.2 1,177 -52 -4.2 304,558 -6,721 -2.21995 22,044 476 2.2 1,233 56 4.8 326,152 21,594 7.11996 22,487 443 2.0 1,259 26 2.1 339,641 13,490 4.11997 22,945 458 2.0 1,211 -47 -3.8 333,487 -6,155 -1.81998 23,551 606 2.6 1,242 30 2.5 350,905 17,418 5.21999 24,247 696 3.0 1,224 -17 -1.4 356,214 5,309 1.52000 24,733 486 2.0 1,278 53 4.4 379,217 23,003 6.52001 25,397 664 2.7 1,231 -47 -3.7 375,057 -4,160 -1.12002 26,020 623 2.5 1,299 68 5.6 405,632 30,575 8.22003 26,622 602 2.3 1,276 -23 -1.8 407,558 1,926 0.52004 27,344 722 2.7 1,274 -2 -0.1 418,111 10,553 2.62005 27,999 655 2.4 1,349 75 5.9 453,278 35,168 8.42006 28,805 806 2.9 1,304 -45 -3.3 450,874 -2,404 -0.52007 29,614 809 2.8 1,292 -12 -0.9 459,284 8,410 1.92008 30,391 777 2.6 1,298 6 0.5 473,463 14,179 3.12009 31,145 754 2.5 1,306 8 0.6 488,154 14,691 3.12010 31,900 755 2.4 1,312 6 0.5 502,245 14,091 2.92011 32,633 733 2.3 1,314 2 0.1 514,521 12,276 2.42012 33,372 739 2.3 1,321 7 0.5 528,919 14,397 2.82013 34,092 720 2.2 1,327 7 0.5 543,009 14,090 2.72014 34,802 710 2.1 1,331 4 0.3 556,024 13,015 2.42015 35,522 720 2.1 1,335 3 0.3 569,010 12,986 2.32016 36,238 716 2.0 1,340 5 0.4 582,552 13,542 2.42017 36,952 714 2.0 1,343 4 0.3 595,656 13,104 2.22018 37,676 724 2.0 1,349 5 0.4 609,761 14,105 2.42019 38,398 722 1.9 1,355 6 0.5 624,249 14,489 2.42020 39,116 718 1.9 1,364 9 0.7 640,157 15,907 2.52021 39,846 730 1.9 1,372 8 0.6 655,893 15,736 2.52022 40,571 725 1.8 1,379 7 0.5 671,441 15,548 2.42023 41,286 715 1.8 1,386 7 0.5 686,776 15,335 2.32024 42,010 724 1.8 1,394 8 0.6 702,814 16,039 2.32025 42,738 728 1.7 1,398 3 0.2 716,730 13,916 2.0

Nolin RECC2006 Load Forecast

Residential Summary

Table 1-6

55

Figure 1-8Annual Change in Residential Customers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Nu

mb

er

of

Cu

sto

me

rs

56

Blank PageBlank Page

57

Figure 1-9

Nolin RECC Residential MWh Usage, History and Forecast

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00

30,000.00

40,000.00

50,000.00

60,000.00

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

MW

h

Other Usage Heating, Cooling and Water Heating Usage

58

Methodology and Results (continued)Small Commercial Forecast

Small commercial sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and a small commercial sales equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Small commercial projections are reported in Table 1-7.

59

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

AnnualAverage(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 689 72 49,6291991 717 28 4.1 73 1 1.2 52,259 2,630 5.31992 759 42 5.9 68 -5 -6.8 51,570 -689 -1.31993 799 40 5.3 75 7 10.4 59,927 8,357 16.21994 901 102 12.8 66 -9 -11.4 59,873 -54 -0.11995 949 48 5.3 70 3 5.2 66,331 6,458 10.81996 985 36 3.8 79 9 13.6 78,198 11,867 17.91997 1,012 27 2.7 78 -1 -1.8 78,864 666 0.91998 1,065 53 5.2 83 5 5.9 87,882 9,018 11.41999 1,171 106 10.0 78 -4 -5.1 91,691 3,809 4.32000 1,422 251 21.4 70 -8 -10.0 100,244 8,553 9.32001 1,494 72 5.1 70 0 -0.2 105,110 4,866 4.92002 1,578 84 5.6 72 1 2.0 113,273 8,163 7.82003 1,645 67 4.2 69 -3 -4.5 112,796 -477 -0.42004 1,676 31 1.9 61 -8 -11.1 102,154 -10,642 -9.42005 1,750 74 4.4 60 -1 -1.8 104,746 2,592 2.52006 1,831 81 4.6 59 0 -0.6 108,924 4,178 4.02007 1,909 78 4.3 59 0 -0.2 113,319 4,395 4.02008 1,988 79 4.1 59 0 -0.5 117,360 4,041 3.62009 2,065 77 3.9 59 0 -0.4 121,358 3,998 3.42010 2,141 76 3.7 58 0 -0.6 125,036 3,678 3.02011 2,216 75 3.5 58 0 -0.8 128,384 3,348 2.72012 2,291 75 3.4 58 0 -0.7 131,739 3,355 2.62013 2,364 73 3.2 57 0 -0.6 135,087 3,348 2.52014 2,436 72 3.0 57 0 -0.6 138,314 3,226 2.42015 2,509 73 3.0 56 0 -0.6 141,577 3,263 2.42016 2,582 73 2.9 56 0 -0.5 145,036 3,459 2.42017 2,654 72 2.8 56 0 -0.2 148,834 3,798 2.62018 2,728 74 2.8 56 0 -0.1 152,763 3,930 2.62019 2,801 73 2.7 56 0 -0.1 156,753 3,989 2.62020 2,874 73 2.6 56 0 -0.1 160,656 3,904 2.52021 2,948 74 2.6 56 0 0.0 164,768 4,111 2.62022 3,022 74 2.5 56 0 0.0 168,851 4,084 2.52023 3,094 72 2.4 56 0 0.0 172,858 4,007 2.42024 3,168 74 2.4 56 0 0.0 176,909 4,051 2.32025 3,242 74 2.3 56 0 -0.1 180,877 3,968 2.2

Nolin RECC2006 Load Forecast

Small Commercial Summary

Table 1-7

60

Methodology and Results (continued)Large Commercial Forecast

Large commercial customers are those with loads 1 MW or greater. Nolin RECC currently has 2 customers in this class and is projected to increase to 5 customers by 2025. Large commercial results are reported in Table 1-8.

61

Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

Annual Average(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 3 26,181 78,5431991 3 0 0.0 29,423 3,242 12.4 88,269 9,726 12.41992 3 0 0.0 29,955 532 1.8 89,864 1,595 1.81993 3 0 0.0 32,105 2,150 7.2 96,315 6,451 7.21994 2 -1 -33.3 48,313 16,208 50.5 96,626 311 0.31995 2 0 0.0 53,643 5,330 11.0 107,287 10,661 11.01996 2 0 0.0 56,016 2,372 4.4 112,032 4,745 4.41997 2 0 0.0 61,894 5,878 10.5 123,788 11,756 10.51998 2 0 0.0 63,409 1,515 2.4 126,818 3,031 2.41999 2 0 0.0 62,318 -1,092 -1.7 124,635 -2,183 -1.72000 2 0 0.0 60,208 -2,110 -3.4 120,415 -4,220 -3.42001 2 0 0.0 63,438 3,230 5.4 126,875 6,460 5.42002 2 0 0.0 76,604 13,166 20.8 153,208 26,332 20.82003 2 0 0.0 81,039 4,436 5.8 162,079 8,871 5.82004 2 0 0.0 82,830 1,790 2.2 165,659 3,581 2.22005 2 0 0.0 87,745 4,915 5.9 175,489 9,830 5.92006 2 0 0.0 92,467 4,722 5.4 184,933 9,444 5.42007 2 0 0.0 95,546 3,079 3.3 191,092 6,159 3.32008 2 0 0.0 98,600 3,054 3.2 197,201 6,109 3.22009 2 0 0.0 101,741 3,140 3.2 203,481 6,280 3.22010 3 1 50.0 72,724 -29,017 -28.5 218,171 14,690 7.22011 3 0 0.0 74,902 2,178 3.0 224,706 6,534 3.02012 3 0 0.0 77,107 2,205 2.9 231,321 6,615 2.92013 3 0 0.0 79,332 2,225 2.9 237,995 6,675 2.92014 3 0 0.0 81,571 2,240 2.8 244,714 6,719 2.82015 4 1 33.3 64,932 -16,639 -20.4 259,730 15,016 6.12016 4 0 0.0 66,626 1,694 2.6 266,506 6,776 2.62017 4 0 0.0 68,325 1,698 2.5 273,299 6,793 2.52018 4 0 0.0 70,026 1,702 2.5 280,106 6,807 2.52019 4 0 0.0 71,731 1,704 2.4 286,922 6,816 2.42020 4 0 0.0 73,436 1,706 2.4 293,746 6,824 2.42021 4 0 0.0 75,144 1,707 2.3 300,575 6,829 2.32022 4 0 0.0 76,852 1,708 2.3 307,408 6,833 2.32023 5 1 25.0 64,502 -12,350 -16.1 322,508 15,100 4.92024 5 0 0.0 65,869 1,368 2.1 329,346 6,838 2.12025 5 0 0.0 67,237 1,368 2.1 336,185 6,840 2.1

Nolin RECC2006 Load Forecast

Large Commercial Summary

Table 1-8

62

Methodology and Results (continued)Other Forecast

Nolin RECC serves street light accounts which are classified in the ‘Other’ category. This class is modeled separately. Results are reported in Table 1-9.

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Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales

AnnualAverage

AnnualChange

%Change

MonthlyAverage(kWh)

AnnualChange(kWh)

%Change

Total(MWh)

AnnualChange(MWh)

%Change

1990 9 9,907 1,0701991 9 0 0.0 10,231 324 3.3 1,105 35 3.31992 9 0 0.0 10,491 259 2.5 1,133 28 2.51993 13 4 44.4 10,058 -433 -4.1 1,569 436 38.51994 17 4 30.8 2,488 -7,570 -75.3 508 -1,061 -67.61995 17 0 0.0 4,763 2,275 91.4 972 464 91.41996 18 1 5.9 4,668 -94 -2.0 1,008 37 3.81997 19 1 5.6 4,548 -120 -2.6 1,037 29 2.81998 21 2 10.5 4,249 -299 -6.6 1,071 34 3.31999 21 0 0.0 4,321 71 1.7 1,089 18 1.72000 23 2 9.5 4,435 115 2.7 1,224 135 12.42001 25 2 8.7 4,383 -52 -1.2 1,315 91 7.42002 29 4 16.0 3,931 -452 -10.3 1,368 53 4.02003 30 1 3.4 3,826 -106 -2.7 1,377 9 0.72004 30 0 0.0 3,874 48 1.3 1,394 17 1.32005 29 -1 -3.3 4,074 200 5.2 1,418 23 1.72006 30 1 3.4 4,023 -51 -1.2 1,448 31 2.22007 31 1 3.3 3,968 -55 -1.4 1,476 28 1.92008 32 1 3.2 3,914 -54 -1.4 1,503 27 1.82009 33 1 3.1 3,861 -52 -1.3 1,529 26 1.72010 34 1 3.0 3,812 -49 -1.3 1,555 26 1.72011 35 1 2.9 3,764 -48 -1.3 1,581 26 1.72012 36 1 2.9 3,720 -45 -1.2 1,607 26 1.62013 37 1 2.8 3,676 -44 -1.2 1,632 25 1.62014 38 1 2.7 3,634 -42 -1.1 1,657 25 1.52015 38 0 0.0 3,690 56 1.5 1,683 25 1.52016 39 1 2.6 3,649 -41 -1.1 1,708 25 1.52017 40 1 2.6 3,610 -39 -1.1 1,733 25 1.52018 41 1 2.5 3,574 -36 -1.0 1,758 25 1.52019 42 1 2.4 3,539 -35 -1.0 1,784 25 1.42020 43 1 2.4 3,506 -33 -0.9 1,809 25 1.42021 44 1 2.3 3,475 -31 -0.9 1,835 26 1.42022 45 1 2.3 3,445 -30 -0.9 1,860 25 1.42023 45 0 0.0 3,491 47 1.4 1,885 25 1.42024 46 1 2.2 3,461 -30 -0.9 1,911 25 1.32025 47 1 2.2 3,433 -28 -0.8 1,936 26 1.3

Nolin RECC2006 Load Forecast

Other Summary

Table 1-9

64

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65

Methodology and Results (continued)Peak Day Weather Scenarios

Extreme temperatures can dramatically influence Nolin RECC’s peak demands. Table 1-10 and Figure 1-10 reports the impact of extreme weather on system demands.

66

Table 1-10

Winter Peak Day Minimum Temperatures Summer Peak Day Maximum Temperatures

Mild Normal Extreme Normal Extreme

Degrees 10 0 -8 -14 -23 Degrees 96 99 101 104

Probability 99% 50% 20% 10% 3% Probability 50% 20% 10% 3%

Occurs Once Every 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years

Noncoincident Winter Peak Demand - MW Noncoincident Summer Peak Demand - MW

Season Mild Normal Extreme Year Normal Extreme

2006 150 163 173 186

2006 - 07 163 183 198 210 227 2007 154 168 177 191

2007 - 08 168 188 204 216 234 2008 158 172 182 196

2008 - 09 174 194 211 223 242 2009 163 178 188 202

2009 - 10 180 201 218 231 250 2010 169 184 194 209

2010 - 11 185 207 224 237 257 2011 173 188 199 214

2011 - 12 189 212 230 243 263 2012 177 193 204 219

2012 - 13 195 218 236 250 271 2013 182 198 209 225

2013 - 14 199 223 242 256 278 2014 186 203 214 230

2014 - 15 205 230 249 264 286 2015 192 209 220 237

2015- 16 210 235 255 270 292 2016 196 213 225 242

2016 - 17 215 241 261 277 300 2017 201 218 230 248

2017 - 18 220 246 267 283 307 2018 205 223 235 253

2018 - 19 225 252 274 290 314 2019 210 228 241 259

2019-2020 230 258 280 296 321 2020 214 233 246 265

2020-2021 236 265 287 304 330 2021 220 239 252 271

2021-2022 242 271 294 311 337 2022 225 244 258 277

2022-2023 248 278 302 319 346 2023 231 251 265 285

2023-2024 253 283 307 326 353 2024 236 256 270 290

2024-2025 259 290 314 333 361 2025 241 262 276 296

Nolin RECCPeak Day Weather Scenarios

67

Figure 1-10Normal Peaks and T&D Planning Peaks

Nolin RECC -Normal Peaks And T&D Planning Peaks

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Pea

k M

W

Actual Winter Normal Winter 10% Case - Winter Actual Summer Normal Summer 10% Case - Summer

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RUS Form 341

Form 341Form 341