None 10:15 Fed's Rosengren Discusses Economic Outlook 12:00 … · 2020. 6. 19. · Jun-19 Aug-19...

Time Event Estimate Date Act.vs. Est. S&P

8:30 Chicago Fed NAI n/a 5/26 -13.2 1.23

10:00 Existing Home Sales 4.13 mln 5/21 0.11 -0.78

Last Report

Time Event Estimate Date Est Act. Diff. S&P Best Worst

None

10:15 Fed's Rosengren Discusses Economic Outlook

12:00 Fed's Quarles Discusses Fed Stress Testing

13:00 Baker Hughes Rig Count

13:00 Powell and Mester Hold Community Event

Last Report

Upgrades

Ticker Firm From To

CSL BMO Capital Mkt Perf Outperf

DT Goldman Neutral Buy

EOG SunTrust Hold Buy

FOXA Macquarie Underperf Neutral

OXY SunTrust Hold Buy

ULTA Barclays Mkt Wgt Overwgt

Downgrades

Ticker Firm From To

FULC Merrill Buy Neutral

HUN Seaport Buy Neutral

LPX TD Buy Neutral

WORK Goldman Neutral Sell

Initiations/Reiterations

Ticker Firm Action Rating

AAPL Jefferies Reiterated Outperf

ACN Cowen Reiterated Outperf

LULU UBS Reiterated Outperf

NKE Telsey Reiterated Outperf

PSTI Jefferies Initiated Buy

W G Haskett Reiterated Outperf

- China Reportedly Agrees to Increase Farm Purchases.h 0.6 %

h 1.3

h 1.1

h 1.3

Oil 39.94 h $1.1

Gold 1742.3 h $11.2

$/Euro 0.892 i 0.00

$/Yen 106.85 i -0.1

10-Yr 0.72 h 0.01

Japan

China

Germany

UK

Trading Up ($):

UONE (27), AMZN (25.92), TSLA (10.55), SPOT (6.72), WING (5.33), MPC (3.16)

Trading Down ($):

BYSI (-3.2), NFLX (-0.87), NEON (-0.62), PM (-0.62), WORK (-0.58), GILD (-0.22)-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

ange

Asia Opens

Europe Opens

Today’s Events

Stock Specific News of Note

Noteworthy Macro EventsOther MarketsOvernight Trading

Tomorrow

Overnight Trading

Analyst Actions

Indicators/EventsMarket Timing Model

© Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained fromsources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee itsaccuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of thepurchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is notresponsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

Earnings Reports

Economic Indicators & Events

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward1

Ticker News

AMC Announces that it will resume theater operation beginning on July 15th.

DKNG Prices increased secondary stock offering at $40.

HOME Missed EPS forecasts by 19 cents (-0.61 vs -0.42) on weaker revenues; gives no guidance.

KMX Missed EPS forecasts by 11 cents (0.03 vs 0.14) on stronger revenues; June activity improving.

MPC WSJ reports that company is in talks to sell its Speedway gas station business.

STLD Sees stronger than expected Q2 EPS; says construction related demand has been steadier.

SWBI Beat EPS forecasts by 23 cents (0.57 vs 0.34) on stronger revenues.

TXT Announces restructuring plan which includes a 6% reduction in headcount.

VTR Announces 40% cut in quarterly dividend down to 45 cents per share.

TRUE Says that vehicle demand returned in May and that trend has continued in June.

Bearish Bullish

Category One Week Two Weeks One Month

Sentiment 0.19 0.24 0.46

Technicals 0.08 0.26 0.43

Fundamental 0.17 0.18 0.43

Overall 0.14 0.22 0.44

Average (all days) 0.14 0.27 0.54

Expected S&P 500 Return (%)

Neutral

Ticker Date TOD EPS Revs.

INFO 6/23/20 AM 0.66 1049

AVAV 6/23/20 PM 0.69 123

LZB 6/23/20 PM 0.21 393.1

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0.0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0.0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

1/0/1900 1/0/00 0 0.00 0

Estimate

Conferences & Meetings

Dividends & SplitsKAMN 0.20

WRB 0.12

None

DOCU Will replace UAL in the Nasdaq 100 Index on 6/22.

BIO Will replace HOG in the S&P 500 effective 6/22.

TDY Will replace JWN in the S&P 500 effexctive 6/22.

TYL Will replace ADS in the S&P 500 effective 6/22.

IBTX Will replace PGNX in the S&P 600 effective 6/22.

Index Changes

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Ticker Price

COST 299.57 -1.25 1.04 65.4

Standard Deviations

Below 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Ticker Price

AAL 16.49 1.48 -1.16 35.1

Standard Deviations

Above 50-Day Avg

Avg % Return

(One Week)

Percent of

Time Positive

Commodity Current 1 Wk Ago

$/Euro OS OS

$/Yen N OS

2-Year N N

10-Year N N

Gold N N

Silver N OB

Copper OB OB

Crude Oil OB N

Heating Oil OB N

Gasoline OB OB

Natural Gas OS OS

OS N OB

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20

Bonds Outperforming Stocks

Stocks Outperforming Bonds

Ticker % Chg. Occ. Chg. Percent Up Chg. Percent Up

ABM 20.0 4 -1.7 50.0 -1.7 50.0

ENPH 17.1 26 2.4 65.4 5.8 69.2

GPRE 7.9 38 -0.7 47.4 0.4 60.5

PBF 7.9 34 -1.1 47.1 -2.5 41.2

CRY -25.5 6 2.5 66.7 -3.3 50.0

TISI -16.9 14 2.6 57.1 3.5 57.1

X -13.1 9 3.9 66.7 1.0 55.6

BGG -12.4 11 -0.6 45.5 -4.3 18.2

Average Return (%)

Next Day Next Week

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago

S&P 500 OB N

Cons Discret. OB N

Cons Staples N N

Energy N N

Financials N N

Health Care N N

Industrials OB N

Materials OB N

Technology OB N

Comm. Svcs OB N

Utilities N N

OS N OB

S&P 500 50-Day Moving Average Spread S&P 500 Internals Yesterday’s Movers

Relative Strength of Stocks versus Bonds

S&P 500 Overbought and Oversold Stocks (Percentage) Trading Ranges: Sectors

Trading Ranges: Bonds/Commodities

S&P 500 Overbought Stocks Most Likely to Fall

S&P 500 Oversold Stocks Most Likely to Rise


Extreme Overbought

Overbought

Oversold

Extreme Oversold

3.4

40.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Green indicates percentage of oversold stocks, and red indicates percentage of overbought stocks. OB

OS

Indicator Change50-Day Moving Avg Spread h 5.8 % 3.8 %10-Day A/D Line h 343 317# of Overbought Stocks h 203 58# of Oversold Stocks i 17 27

P/E Ratio Trailing h 21.76 20.96 Forward h 24.86 23.99

Dividend Yield i 1.95 % 2.02 %

Net Earnings Revisions i -30.3 % -23.0 %

Credit Spreads (bps)High Yield i 585 640Corporate Bonds i 157 170

Current One Week Ago


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BBG US Dollar Index: Last Six Months

BBG US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

1230

1240

1250

1260

1270

1280

1290

1300

1310

12/20 1/21 2/18 3/17 4/15 5/13 6/10

1180

1190

1200

1210

1220

1230

1240

1250

1260

1270

1280

1290

1300

1310

12/20 1/21 2/18 3/17 4/15 5/13 6/10

50-DMA: 1238

200-DMA: 1217

1190

1195

1200

1205

1210

1215

1220

1225

1230

1235

1240

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

1220

Gold Future: Last Six Months

Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

1680

1690

1700

1710

1720

1730

1740

1750

1760

1770

1780

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

200-DMA: 1603

50-DMA: 1741

1740

S&P 500: Last Six Months

S&P 500: Last 15 Trading Days

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

200-DMA: 3018

50-DMA: 29453115

Russell 2000: Last Six Months

Russell 2000: Last 15 Trading Days

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

200-DMA: 1479

1325

1375

1425

1475

1525

1575

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

50-DMA: 1326

1427

Nasdaq Composite: Last Six Months

Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

50-DMA: 9099

200-DMA: 8656

9100

9200

9300

9400

9500

9600

9700

9800

9900

10000

10100

10200

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

9943

Oil Future: Last Six Months

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

200-DMA: 72

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

50-DMA: 28

38.84


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DJ Transports: Last Six Months

DJ Transports: Last 15 Trading Days

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

12/17 1/16 2/14 3/16 4/14 5/12 6/10

200-DMA: 9777

8600

8800

9000

9200

9400

9600

9800

10000

10200

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

50-DMA: 8553

9208

Long Bond Future: Last Six Months

Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

150

154

158

162

166

170

174

178

182

186

190

12/20 1/22 2/20 3/19 4/17 5/15 6/15

150

154

158

162

166

170

174

178

182

186

190

12/20 1/22 2/20 3/19 4/17 5/15 6/15

200-DMA: 165

170

172

174

176

178

180

182

5/29 6/2 6/4 6/8 6/10 6/12 6/16 6/18

50-DMA: 178

177


For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2020, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. The information herein was obtained from

sources which Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its

accuracy. Neither the information, nor any opinions expressed, constitute a solicitation of the

purchase or sale of any securities or related instruments. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC is not

responsible for any losses incurred from any use of this information.

4

Morning Commentary

Overview: Expect a busy day in terms of volumes with quadruple witching day (marking the expiry of

options on single stocks, options on indices, futures, and options on futures) coming on the same day

as a rebalance in the S&P 500. With $1.8trn in S&P 500 options notional expiring and as much as $48bn

in rebalancing volumes likely to hit the market, expect lots of activity throughout the day even if price

swings are smaller than you’d typically see on big volume days like that. Markets are currently priced

to gap up by half of a percent at the open, with futures trading rate at session highs for the overnight

period. Gold is at session highs as well despite rising interest rates. Global Economic Scorecard

APAC Markets: APAC markets continued to move higher yesterday, though the TOPIX dropped 2 bps to

close down for the eighth day out of the past nine. The rest of the region was higher, though, with the

onshore large cap index of Chinese stocks, the CSI 300, surging 1.3%, India up 1.5%, and Hang Seng up

0.7%. The big exception was Singapore where the FTSE Straits Times plunged 1.2%. Iron ore has re-

mained in a holding pattern at the top of its 52-week range over the past week, but copper had a good

session overnight and is set to close at the highest levels since its brutal Thursday drop last week. FX

performance was decidedly mixed, with AUD leading the way higher but declines for INR, KRW, and

IDR last night.

Wirecard: For years, journalists and short-sellers have claimed Wirecard AG, one of Germany’s biggest

tech names, was behaving fraudulently. Wirecard offers internet payment and processing services,

helping power e-commerce and other online platforms. The institutional backlash was so strong that FT

journalist Dan McCrum was investigated for criminal wrongdoing by German authorities amidst his re-

porting of fraudulent activity. Yesterday, the company reported it could not publish annual accounts

because auditors could not locate €1.9bn supposedly deposited at Asian banks; this is consistent with

the implications of McCrum’s reporting, and as a result Wirecard fell 61.8% yesterday. It’s down anoth-

er 47% today, with its 0.5% 2024 notes trading at 25 cents on the dollar. A $1bn investment from Soft-

Bank last year is also down substantially, as the stock has dropped 90% from Q3 2018 highs. This is one

of the largest frauds in German market history, and the missing €1.9bn is similar in scale to the €8bn

hole that was discovered in the accounts of European diary producer Parmalat.

Europe Markets: European equities gapped modestly higher and have run since, trading at session

highs just after 6:00 AM ET. Despite the absolute disaster that is Wirecard, there are 7 stocks higher for

every 3 lower, and Real Estate is the only group lower on the session. The FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX 30,

and IBEX 35 are all up at least 1%, while the OMX 30 is the only major national index down on the ses-

sion. Credit is substantially stronger, with CDX outperforming but reasonably strong trade for cash

bonds as well. The European curve is bull steepening, which is helping push a bid across asset classes.

In central banking news, the Bank of Russia cut rates by a full 1% to their lowest level since at least

1992 today, reflecting the large risks to activity from both COVID (almost 600,000 confirmed cases and

8000 being added per day) and lower oil prices around the world. In regional FX, EUR is having a quiet

day versus the dollar, GBP continues to decline as cable (GBPUSD) moves below its 50-DMA, EURCHF is

down once again (though only fractionally), and EURSEK continues to edge higher in another sign of

unimpressive risk appetite.

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5

FX Leads The Way: Since March 23rd,

there have been titanic shifts in glob-

al FX markets, which are highlighted

best by the fact that only two major

currencies (TRY, BRL) are down ver-

sus the dollar over that period. The

biggest rallies have not just come

from emerging markets but also com-

modity-linked developed market cur-

rencies like NOK, AUD, NZD, and even

SEK.

As a result of the large increase in

implied risk appetite, the USD’s real

effective exchange rate has dropped

from its 92nd percentile since 1994

on March 23rd (the highest level

since February 12th of 2003, to the

84th percentile. It’s important to

note that the entire round-trip in the

dollar came thanks to stress and risk

aversion across global markets. The

same story is visible in the uptake of

dollar funding by foreign central

banks. Through yesterday, the total

outstanding volume had dropped by

over a third from its peak with the

ECB’s uptake of dollars less than one-

third of its peak levels from early

June and large declines across the

BoE and BoJ. Other central banks saw

smaller but still-visible declines too.

In short, the dollar has reversed its

losses because risk appetite has final-

ly stabilized and worked its way

across balance sheets and funding

markets around the world. It may

well decline further from here, but

rapid declines like the past few

months are unsustainable, in our

view.

Morning Commentary Total Returns vs USD Since March 23rd (%)

USD Real Effective Exchange Rate

Emergency Dollar Funding Demand Dries Up

21.0319.00

18.0116.27

13.6912.70

10.01 9.66

-1.11

-3.69-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

USD Real EffectiveExchange Rate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Federal ReserveDollar LiquiditySwaps w/ ForeignCentral Banks:Amounts…








6

Coronavirus: Excluding New York and New Jersey, to-

tal national net change in hospitalizations is now up

using the average of the past 7 days. That’s the first

such increase since the start of May. We would note

that new reporting from Tennessee as-of June 16th

adds 59 hospitalizations per day to the total, so back-

ing out that impact, the average of 8 net hospitaliza-

tions per day over the past week is still a decline of 51.

Either way, case counts nationally continue to acceler-

ate as outbreaks in the Carolinas, Florida, Texas, Arizo-

na, and California all accelerate. The national positive

test rate is rising, and at the highest since late May,

while 30 different states report cases higher over the

last 7 days than they were a week ago. 118,000 Ameri-

cans have now died from COVID, more than twice as

many as the next-highest country (Brazil).

Morning Commentary

Deaths Day Over Day (w/ 7 Day Moving Avg)

Global Cases & Deaths

New Confirmed Cases Per Day (w/ 7 Day Moving Avg)

US Test Count Versus Positive Test Rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Day/Day Cases (%)

Day/Day Deaths (%)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

US Case Count Day/Day

Ex NY/NJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

US Deaths Day/Day

Ex NY/NJ

465,779

5.79

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000 Day/Day Tests

% Positive In Each Day's Reported Tests

Daily New Reported COVID Hospitalizations

-1500

-500

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

Day/Day Change InHospital Admissions(Ex NY/NJ)

7 Day Avg

Breadth of COVID-19 Improvement Stats Across States

Note: both metrics are based on the change in the 7 day moving average, for the date in

question and versus the day one week before.

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50 Number of States w/ Rising Cases (Left)

Number of States w/ Rising Positive Rate (Left)

Change In Cases (National, Right)

Change In Cases (Ex NY/NJ, Right)








7

COVID By State: The table below includes a wide range of COVID-19 data points by state, as a refer-

ence. We will update it daily on this page.

Morning Commentary

State

AK 0 0 14 0 1,450 176 0.98 0.23 0.03 19.37 0.23 1,981.65 240.91

AL 8 -7 766 227 6,244 26 12.27 1.60 -1.37 156.20 46.27 1,273.46 5.27

AR 5 1 445 52 7,396 2,512 6.01 1.75 0.38 147.32 17.18 2,450.63 832.39

AZ 21 2 1,740 524 10,021 1,475 17.36 2.83 0.26 239.03 71.99 1,376.81 202.61

CA 58 -7 3,117 335 68,126 8,844 4.58 1.48 -0.18 78.88 8.47 1,724.18 223.83

CO 8 -3 168 -38 4,553 -182 3.68 1.44 -0.52 29.12 -6.57 790.62 -31.60

CT 11 -8 140 -35 7,234 1,459 1.93 3.21 -2.36 39.23 -9.74 2,028.97 409.26

DE 2 -2 56 5 2,093 932 2.68 2.49 -1.61 57.66 4.84 2,149.39 957.55

FL 31 -4 2,408 1,139 29,254 722 8.23 1.44 -0.21 112.12 53.02 1,362.07 33.61

GA 33 0 848 116 11,280 -1,278 7.52 3.09 0.03 79.91 10.94 1,062.45 -120.38

HI 0 0 8 4 1,011 60 0.83 0.00 0.00 5.95 2.72 714.25 42.58

IA 6 -3 274 -31 4,627 -173 5.92 1.81 -0.86 86.75 -9.83 1,466.66 -54.88

ID 0 0 53 15 1,128 -345 4.71 0.24 0.08 29.65 8.13 629.52 -192.36

IL 51 -39 616 -322 23,092 2,944 2.67 4.00 -3.07 48.61 -25.43 1,822.29 232.32

IN 16 -5 384 5 8,197 2,182 4.69 2.36 -0.81 57.08 0.81 1,217.60 324.07

KS 1 -2 124 32 2,626 385 4.73 0.34 -0.54 42.61 11.13 901.38 132.05

KY 4 -1 179 2 3,612 -2,840 4.95 0.86 -0.26 40.03 0.38 808.54 -635.77

LA 11 -4 595 179 10,793 2,437 5.51 2.30 -0.89 127.90 38.47 2,321.59 524.28

MA 40 -2 251 -121 8,310 3 3.02 5.71 -0.27 36.08 -17.45 1,195.81 0.39

MD 20 -9 433 -187 7,891 -16 5.49 3.33 -1.56 71.65 -30.88 1,305.25 -2.69

ME 0 0 30 -1 1,229 -93 2.45 0.21 -0.32 22.42 -1.06 914.29 -69.40

MI 11 -1 193 74 11,381 238 1.69 1.09 -0.11 19.30 7.38 1,139.58 23.87

MN 14 -8 180 -124 9,378 -1,063 1.91 2.43 -1.47 31.84 -22.06 1,662.85 -188.49

MO 12 2 217 26 5,472 -297 3.96 2.00 0.28 35.33 4.31 891.53 -48.35

MS 10 -1 308 34 4,445 316 6.94 3.36 -0.19 103.59 11.28 1,493.40 106.18

MT 0 0 13 10 1,585 -6 0.83 0.27 0.13 12.30 8.96 1,482.73 -5.61

NE 6 4 172 6 2,450 249 7.00 2.88 2.29 88.69 3.10 1,266.61 128.80

NC 16 1 1,244 170 17,286 2,375 7.20 1.51 0.10 118.60 16.24 1,648.14 226.46

ND 1 -1 30 -9 1,124 117 2.71 0.75 -0.75 39.93 -11.44 1,474.57 154.09

NH 4 -1 37 -18 1,725 -32 2.14 3.05 -0.74 27.11 -13.13 1,268.86 -23.32

NJ 51 -17 327 -142 20,134 -4,589 1.63 5.74 -1.87 36.85 -16.00 2,266.83 -516.65

NM 6 1 116 -42 4,334 -317 2.69 2.86 0.48 55.53 -20.10 2,067.07 -151.32

NV 2 -2 240 53 5,363 816 4.47 0.79 -0.56 77.78 17.07 1,741.19 264.88

NY 31 -13 695 -127 64,379 2,097 1.08 1.61 -0.66 35.75 -6.54 3,309.38 107.82

OH 20 -1 445 57 12,492 1,730 3.57 1.75 -0.10 38.11 4.84 1,068.65 147.99

OK 1 -1 183 80 3,951 -295 4.62 0.25 -0.22 46.14 20.18 998.53 -74.55

OR 2 1 161 52 3,905 691 4.13 0.54 0.14 38.24 12.40 925.75 163.93

PA 35 -7 329 -153 9,957 975 3.30 2.77 -0.54 25.70 -11.94 777.74 76.17

RI 9 -1 58 -19 3,399 273 1.71 8.36 -0.67 54.88 -17.53 3,208.13 257.57

SC 5 -4 730 239 7,209 4,112 10.12 0.92 -0.83 141.70 46.36 1,400.24 798.67

SD 1 -1 63 4 1,230 -73 5.16 0.81 -0.65 71.70 4.20 1,390.20 -82.84

TN 10 4 613 125 16,729 8,278 3.66 1.42 0.59 89.71 18.25 2,448.14 1,211.40

TX 26 5 2,610 944 28,774 4,808 9.07 0.91 0.16 90.00 32.54 992.36 165.82

UT 3 1 370 21 4,002 122 9.23 0.94 0.31 115.28 6.59 1,248.43 38.14

VA 9 -1 513 -171 13,510 5,831 3.80 1.10 -0.15 60.10 -20.08 1,582.83 683.18

VT 0 0 4 -8 1,077 -263 0.35 0.23 0.23 5.95 -13.28 1,725.31 -421.02

WA 5 -3 306 92 9,241 6,975 3.31 0.68 -0.36 40.18 12.14 1,213.49 915.95

WI 5 -3 279 -12 9,971 -988 2.79 0.91 -0.47 47.84 -2.06 1,712.46 -169.74

WV 0 -1 29 12 3,330 1,177 0.88 0.24 -0.32 16.47 6.87 1,863.23 658.51

WY 0 0 19 6 714 52 2.70 0.00 -0.25 33.32 10.12 1,232.93 90.34

USA 624 -139 23,132 26,956 498,713 465,779 5.79 1.90 -0.43 70.61 82.28 1,522.35 1,421.81

Week

Change

Raw Count (7 Day Average) Per 1mm Population

COVID-19 Outbreak Statistics By State: Level, Growth, and Per Capita (As-Of 6/18/2020)7 Day +ve

Test Rate

(%)

Week

Change

Week

Change

Week

Change

Week

Change

Week

Change

Cases

Day/Day

Tests

Day/Day

Deaths

Day/Day

Deaths

Day/Day

Cases

Day/Day

Tests

Day/Day








8

Morning Commentary

State Trend Cases State Trend Cases

TN Rising 0 100 601 IN Rising 50 56 382

CA Rising 0 100 3127 IA Falling 49 54 262

UT Rising 0 100 373 VA Falling 25 52 528

AZ Rising 0 100 1685 ID Rising 73 49 53

TX Rising 0 100 2556 OH Rising 59 48 442

FL Rising 0 100 2329 ND Falling 33 48 31

OR Rising 2 100 157 SD Falling 62 47 61

SC Rising 1 100 700 MD Falling 37 45 459

GA Rising 67 98 839 NH Falling 43 42 40

NV Rising 2 98 228 NE Falling 48 40 156

OK Rising 1 97 168 KS Rising 45 40 106

AL Rising 2 96 725 LA Rising 73 38 581

NC Rising 2 94 1157 MN Falling 37 32 212

AK Falling 12 92 14 CO Falling 51 29 175

AR Falling 2 91 402 HI Rising 75 28 8

WA Rising 81 85 316 IL Falling 44 26 642

MO Rising 68 84 216 DE Falling 52 23 54

MS Falling 6 83 267 PA Falling 69 23 381

KY Rising 91 64 201 RI Falling 54 15 57

WV Rising 70 64 29 MI Rising 77 14 180

NM Falling 44 64 102 CT Falling 55 12 133

WI Falling 28 63 275 MA Falling 56 11 248

ME Falling 28 60 27 VT Falling 71 10 4

WY Rising 50 60 19 NJ Falling 71 9 342

MT Rising 78 57 12 NY Falling 70 7 696

State Trend State Trend

TN Falling No -3.1 3.6 IN Falling Yes -1.6 4.7

CA Falling No -0.4 4.6 IA Falling No -0.3 5.7

UT Rising No 0.2 9.3 VA Falling No -3.8 3.9

AZ Falling No -0.4 16.8 ID Rising No 1.7 4.7

TX Falling No -0.2 8.9 OH Falling Yes -0.3 3.5

FL Rising No 1.4 8.0 ND Falling No -0.7 2.7

OR Falling No -0.3 4.0 SD Rising No 0.1 5.0

SC Falling No -10.4 9.7 MD Falling No -0.5 5.8

GA Rising No 1.1 7.4 NH Falling No -0.1 2.3

NV Falling No -0.5 4.3 NE Falling No -1.0 6.4

OK Rising No 0.6 4.2 KS Falling No -0.4 4.0

AL Rising No 0.7 11.6 LA Falling No -0.7 5.4

NC Falling No -1.0 6.7 MN Rising No 0.1 2.3

AK Falling No -0.1 1.0 CO Rising No 0.1 3.8

AR Falling No -2.9 5.4 HI Rising No 0.1 0.8

WA Falling No -8.9 3.4 IL Falling Yes -0.9 2.8

MO Rising No 0.4 4.0 DE Falling No -2.2 2.6

MS Falling No -1.2 6.0 PA Falling No -0.7 3.8

KY Rising No 2.9 5.6 RI Falling Yes -0.4 1.7

WV Falling No -0.2 0.9 MI Rising No 0.2 1.6

NM Falling No -0.5 2.3 CT Falling Yes -0.8 1.8

WI Rising No 0.2 2.8 MA Falling Yes -0.6 3.0

ME Falling No -0.1 2.2 VT Falling No -0.2 0.4

WY Rising No 0.2 2.6 NJ Rising No 0.2 1.7

MT Rising No 0.2 0.8 NY Falling Yes -0.1 1.1

State Trend Net State Trend Net

TN Rising 0 59 59 IN Rising 50 1 -19

CA Falling 68 7 7 IA Rising 53 -9 -8

UT Rising 41 13 13 VA Falling 61 -38 -30

AZ Rising 60 54 54 ID Falling 0 0 0

TX Rising 69 134 134 OH Falling 44 -16 -2

FL Falling 35 0 0 ND Falling 71 -1 -1

OR Rising 66 2 2 SD Rising 55 0 1

SC Rising 25 19 19 MD Falling 51 -33 -35

GA Rising 31 11 11 NH Rising 58 -1 -4

NV Rising 37 3 3 NE Falling 12 -2 -3

OK Rising 68 6 6 KS Falling 0 0 0

AL Falling 7 2 2 LA Rising 77 3 5

NC Falling 69 6 6 MN Falling 41 -14 -9

AK Rising 59 1 1 CO Rising 72 -4 -1

AR Falling 4 6 6 HI Falling 0 0 0

WA Rising 71 5 5 IL Rising 69 -91 -70

MO Rising 70 -1 -1 DE Rising 67 -3 -4

MS Falling 54 2 2 PA Rising 63 -33 -29

KY Falling 63 -16 -16 RI Rising 58 -2 -3

WV Falling 66 -2 -2 MI Falling 63 -14 -15

NM Falling 53 -5 -5 CT Rising 72 -13 -10

WI Rising 68 -9 -9 MA Falling 66 -50 -42

ME Rising 65 0 0 VT Falling 65 -1 0

WY Falling 63 0 0 NJ Rising 67 -64 -36

MT Falling 69 0 0 NY Falling 72 -115 -98

COVID-19 Positive Test Rate By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 6/18/20

At Low?

WoW

Change At Low?

WoW

ChangePositive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory Positive Test Rate: Distribution & Trajectory

Positive

Rate

Positive

Rate

COVID-19 Case Count By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 6/18/20

New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory New Cases Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory

% of

Peak

Days Since

Peak

Days Since

Peak

% of

Peak

COVID-19 Net Hospitalizations By State: 7 Day Moving Average As-Of 6/18/20Days Since

Peak

% of

Peak

Days Since

Peak

% of

PeakNew Hospitalizations Per Day: Distribution & TrajectoryNew Hospitalizations Per Day: Distribution & Trajectory








9

US Markets: The current account balance data for Q1 is the only data today, which will allow investors

to focus on quadruple witching and rebalancing flows all day. To stay on top of all the latest reports,

make sure to check out our Interactive Earnings Calendar. You can also follow US and Global data with

our Economic Scorecard.

Morning Commentary

Change Change

Asset Level Since Fri. 5d Chg 3m Chart Asset Level Since Fri. 5d Chg 3m Chart

S&P 500 3132.00 109.7 355.4 Gold 1742.40 65.3 29.4

Russell 1444.90 191.9 495.4 Silver 17.94 152.8 112.7

VIX Fut 32.50 -320.2 -701.0 WTI 40.03 306.4 949.1

TSX 934.20 78.8 258.0 Copper 265.20 159.0 66.4

2 Year 19.36 0.0 19.2 Nikkei 22478.79 55.2 77.7

5 Year 34.42 1.1 34.1 CSI 300 4098.71 134.3 238.9

10 Year 72.66 1.8 72.0 ASX 200 5942.58 10.3 162.1

30 Year 150.92 2.8 149.5 STOXX 600 366.83 94.1 360.7

2s10s 53.10 2.0 2.3 BBG USD 1217.80 -16.9 26.4

5s30s 116.34 1.7 3.7 EURUSD 1.1214 8.0 -37.3

5 Yr BE 107.55 2.8 106.6 USDJPY 106.81 -15.0 -53.1

10 Yr BE 128.31 1.9 127.1 EM FX 54.76 33.0 -126.4

Jul '20 99.69 -0.2 0.0 CDX IG 71.98 -3.5 -7.0

Sep '20 99.71 0.0 0.0 iTraxx IG 65.20 -1.8 -4.6

Dec '20 99.68 0.0 0.0 CDX HY 469.27 -2.4 -16.7

Mar '21 99.77 0.0 0.0 iTraxx HY 375.37 -1.6 -22.5

Euro

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Cre

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Bespoke Major Asset Class Dashboard

Equ

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Futs

Co

mm

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ity

Trsy

Yie

lds

Int'

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Cu

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s/B

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https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive-earnings-calendar/

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/economic-monitors/eco-global

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