Normative Forecasting - The Millennium Project · normative forecasting applies, to some extent, to...

The Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology—V3.0

NORMATIVE FORECASTING

by

Joseph F. Coates with additions from

Jerome C. Glenn

Introduction

I. History of Normative Forecasting

II. Methods and Techniques

Genius forecasting

Science fiction

Survey techniques

Methods of exhaustion

Scenarios

III. How to Do It

IV. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Method

Appendices

Bibliography

Example of a Global Normative Scenario

Example of a Regional Normative Scenario


Normative Forecasting ii

Acknowledgments

The authors wish to acknowledge helpful comments and insightful remarks provided by the peer

reviewers of the first draft report, particular: Peter Bishop, Professor, Program for the Study of

the Future, University of Houston; Pavel Novacek, Professor, Charles University and Palacky

University, Czech Republic; and Larry Hills, United States Agency for International

Development. Also Joseph Coates wishes to thank his staff at Coates & Jarratt, Inc.,

Washington, D.C. And finally, special thanks to Elizabeth Florescu, Neda Zawahri, Kawthar

Nakayima for project support, Barry Bluestein for research and computer operations, and Sheila

Harty and John Young for editing. Thanks to all for your contributions.


Normative Forecasting 1

INTRODUCTION

Forecasters and futurists generally divide the techniques they use into two broad categories: the

exploratory and the normative. Exploratory approaches generally deal with questions of what

may, might, or could possibly happen on the basis of the forces at play. Normative forecasting

almost always reflects the needs of an organization and, therefore, is goal-oriented. The question

dealt with basically is "how would we like the future to evolve?" Goal-oriented forecasting

tends to take into account an organization's purpose, its mission, and, most importantly, its

expected achievements in the future. Normative forecasting addresses the question of "what

ought we to do." Normative forecasting is usually associated with large organizations, both

public and private, as an important component of decision making and a factor in resource

allocation.

In private or government high-technology organizations, such as those involved with space

programs, submarines, aircraft design, or advanced computer technology, the link between

normative and exploratory forecasting is crucial to provide direction for the organization.

Therefore, some feedback is usually from one to the other, which effectively amounts to iterative

cycles of exploratory and goal-oriented forecasting.

I. HISTORY OF NORMATIVE FORECASTING

Institutions, organizations, and governments have always had interest in the longer-term future.

Normative forecasting is a much narrower aspect of that unstructured look to the future. The key

elements that separate normative forecasting from any other kind of speculation or enunciation

of goals are its systematic, comprehensive, and public aspects––public, in this case, meaning

open to examination and review by people other than the planners and forecasters themselves.

Furthermore, the normative forecast consists of two essential parts. First is the statement of a

goal or set of goals for a specific time; second is the analysis in detail of how to reach the goal or

goals.

The statement of the goal itself must be realistic and take into account a general awareness of

present and future circumstances, resources, social, scientific, and technological contexts, etc.

Crucial to the process is the detailed analysis, which reveals the specific steps or stages that must

be met and how they will be met at specific times in moving toward the goal. From a different

point of view, the function of a normative forecast is to allow an organization to orchestrate its

resources in a highly targeted way in order to achieve a goal. Ideally, normative forecasting, as

with any other kind of forecast, should leave the user and other professionals with the sense that

they understand the process and that, if they had gone through the process, they would come to

similar results.

From a different perspective, one can see normative forecasting as a celebration of human

competence and efficacy. If our ability to shape or influence the future somehow were not

implicit in the concept of normative forecasting, the concept would be self-contradictory.



Not every statement of a goal is a normative forecast. The majority of them are not. Chairman

Mao's goal in the great leap forward was no more a normative forecast than Franklin D. Roosevelt's

New Deal. Why? Because no detailed analysis backed up what was necessary to achieve those

objectives. The characteristic weakness of political goals-setting is the absence of supporting

analysis on feasibility or necessity for achieving the goal. Normative forecasting is not emotive

political arm-waving, but a detailed process of elaborate technique usable primarily in

organizational or governmental planning. Normative forecasting is surely not the tool for the

timid, the unimaginative, the fearful, or the fatalistic.

The mere forecasting of a future state, such as in science fiction, or the description of a range of

alternative futures, such as in the familiar alternative scenarios of Herman Kahn, are not

examples of normative forecasting. The alternative scenarios of Kahn are usually examples of

exploratory forecasting. The alternatives represent the various ways in which the forces at play

could work out. The central features of normative forecasting are two. First, within the

framework of understanding the present world, what is the goal or goals that one sets. Second,

where does the bulk of the work occur, what are the steps and stages necessary to get us from

here to there, or from now to then, on an explicit schedule.

With that view in mind, contemporary normative forecasting had its origins in World War II,

with the needs of the military for goal-oriented and mission-oriented planning. During the war

and subsequently, normative forecasting was picked up by the space program. Again, the central

feature was large, expensive, and long-term technological systems, which had to be examined

exhaustively from every point of view.

The formation of the RAND Corporation at the end of World War II is a forecasting landmark.

RAND was set up to preserve the capabilities that were successfully used in World War II for

orchestrating scientific, technological, and engineering talent. The parallel development of the

Stanford Research Institute, now known as SRI International, to address the commercial sector

and the civil sector of government's interests occurred at the same time. Of the scores, if not

hundreds, of studies done under the auspices of government contractors or government, one must

add the larger universe of studies, such as the White House Goals Research Staff. Again,

normative forecasting applies, to some extent, to looks at the future of the United States.

Erich Jantsch, a consultant to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

(OECD), in 1967 produced a landmark study, Technological Forecasting and Perspective, which

includes historic and methodological treatment of normative forecasting.

More recently, the Millennium Project used an international Delphi panel to identify global

norms around which to write a global normative scenario. It integrated policies and positive

events identified and rated by previous global panels and then wove these together into a global

scenario for 2050 with three themes of technology, human development, and political and

economic policy. See: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/normscen.html. A second

approach to create a normative scenario for the Middle East began by identifying seven necessary

pre-conditions for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and then listing and rating options or

actions to help achieve each pre-condition. The results will be used to create initial draft scenarios,



which will then be used as a basis for interviews with opinion leaders to make the normative

scenarios more plausible. See: http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/ME-Peace-Scenarios.html.

II. METHODS AND TECHNIQUES

The methods and techniques of normative and exploratory forecasting overlap. Exploratory

forecasts, however, tend to rely much more strongly on mathematical analysis and formal,

quantitative trend forecasting, as well as extensive use of probabilistic methods. Normative

forecasting tends to rely more heavily on qualitative tools, since it involves more open-ended,

uncertain, and creative elements of the futures enterprise.

Many techniques—such as scenarios, Delphi, various forms of expert group meetings or

interviews—tend to be used in both normative and exploratory formats. More genius forecasting

and greater use of science fiction also appears in normative forecasting than in exploratory

forecasting.

An exploratory forecast generally moves forward into the future in terms of forces at play.

Exploratory forecasting reflects a continuity model of the future, i.e., a clear linkage between the

forces at play and their effects on the components of the system under study. Hence, the

objective in the exploratory forecast is to examine the various ways in which those forces and

components may play out. Exploratory forecasting rarely suggests a single outcome but, much in

tune with contemporary futures research, yields alternative futures.

Normative forecasting, in contrast, jumps ahead and states some goal or objective that may be

substantially or only apparently discontinuous with the trends currently at play. Then, having

defined that future goal, the forecaster backs away from that future to the present to identify the

necessary steps for reaching the goal. The most widely recognized example is the American

space program. Its most crucial objective was set by President Kennedy: we will put a man on

the moon and return him home safely within a decade. Surely, the forces at play did not make the

man on the moon a likely outcome from incrementally developing military rockets. Rather, what

happened was that a powerful public figure set the goal. That automatically launches a flood of

studies on the steps to reach that goal. Its planners had to go from the macro social goal to

forecasts of what kinds of social systems would be implied in order to make that objective real.

Then the planners had to consider capabilities required to meet the goal. What kind of physical

facilities are required? What was the present state of the science or technology to put the

appropriate rocket ships, launching pads, exploratory vehicles, and recovery components in

place? Rockets were already available from World War II, offering a substantial capability to

put something into space. But at each of those stages, the national goal of a round trip to the

moon far outstripped capabilities. Planners had to roll backward into the present to define all the

things necessary to accomplish that objective. For example, one would have to look at the kinds

of fuel that would be required for a particular kind of vehicle or a particular kind of vehicle

arrangement. Then, could that fuel be produced? That, in turn, leads to multiple avenues of

research and development to determine whether a particular fuel could be made. The craft had to



return to the earth, like a meteor on entering the atmosphere. What had to be done to its surface?

What kind of materials are needed in order to survive re-entry? Again, one has to set some

technical objectives and various approaches for meeting these technical objectives. Literally

thousands of normative forecasts in these nested plans covered the smallest technological

objectives.

Normative forecasting has had its most refined development in the service of physical

technological systems. It recently enjoyed a vogue in the business world using a different

nomenclature. Virtually every large organization caught up in global competitiveness is reaching

out to develop a vision of its own future. The traditional strategic planning components consist

of: a mission, what the organization is all about; a set of goals, what it has to accomplish,

generally in the relatively short and continuing run, to achieve that mission; and the objectives

under each of those goals in order to move it towards practical applications. Finally, traditional

strategic planning moves to detailed action plans.

The concept of vision goes past the mission statement, goals, and objectives and jumps forward

10, 20, 30, 50, or, in the Japanese case, 100 years to define a vision of the organization at that

future time. That vision then becomes the normative base of the whole organization and the

standard against which all the other more limited goals, objectives, projects, plans, and programs

are evaluated. Are they compatible with that vision? Do they drive toward that vision? Do they

drive away from it? Are they indifferent to it?

To a greater extent than exploratory forecasting, normative forecasting is at the heart of

organizational planning. Let us now look at some of the techniques used in normative

forecasting.

Genius Forecasting

Obviously, the most desirable normative forecast would be that made by a genius who sees

through the haze more clearly than others and can anticipate the future with sharper vision. This

approach is described in more detail in a separate chapter in this collection. The three principal

difficulties with genius forecasting are: first, we do not know how to order one up; second, if we

did have one, it may be difficult to recognize and accept the forecast made by such a person;

third, even if one were an acknowledged genius, that genius would likely be limited to some but

not all fields of human enterprise.

Reliance on finding the genius to set the goals for any large national or organizational plan is

impractical; however, reaching out to wise and informed members of the population to draw out

their concepts and thoughts about goals and objectives is highly practical. These responses can

be folded into a normative forecast. Techniques for doing that are discussed below.



Science Fiction

Science fiction is "noted more" for its popularity than its utility. Many people entertain the belief

that science fiction is a rich source of solid speculation about the next decades. Much of science

fiction has a negative cast, seeing dark outcomes in authoritarian states and technological

oppressiveness. These warnings are useful, but the actual normative forecasting associated with

science fiction is vanishingly small.

The value of science fiction in normative forecasts is primarily cautionary. As one considers any

plan or program or particularly any technological project or major social development, science

fiction offers many examples of things that could go awry and have negative side effects. While

the role of science fiction is limited, those who have enjoyed science fiction may find their

cautionary capabilities sharpened.

Survey Techniques

Two extremely effective forms of survey techniques exist with regard to normative forecasting:

Delphi Questionnaires and In-depth Interviews.

In-depth interviews with experts, specialists, and affected parties, when conducted sufficiently

openly and on a broad enough scale, are likely to reveal images of the future which either are or

can be cast into normative forecasts. The in-depth interviews can be open-ended. One can

interview 5, 10, 50, 100, or more people. The point at which one should stop the interviews is

when one ceases to get fresh information. One limitation on the interview approach is the

difficulty in finding credible people who have any normative vision.

Conducting in-depth interviews is not a simple process. One must identify the interviewees and

one must plan what to ask them. Finally, one must have an approach for integrating and

interpreting what they say.

To identify candidates for in-depth interviews, the organization doing the forecasting should

identify a wide as possible range of stakeholders in the subject under consideration. A

stakeholder is a person who has an economic, social, political, cultural, or other interest in the

subject under study. Identify a wide range of them—10 to 100 or even several hundred—they

will become the interview pool. Normally, one would write each of them a letter to indicate what

the project is about, why they are to be interviewed, suggest a date, and then follow through with

a telephone call or further correspondence to agree on a time and place for the interview. An

interview ideally runs 20 to 60 minutes. Extremely busy people cannot allocate more time than

that to an interview.

A critical step is defining what it is that one wants to learn from the interviews. Normally, one

will have done some preliminary work on the topic at hand and have a sense of what the key or

critical issues are, particularly what issues are associated with potential goals and their

realization. Consequentially, one frames the interview questions (sometimes called protocol) to

get at those questions. One will normally do a dry run, i.e., interview two or three people to test



the interview protocol. Are the questions readily understood? Are the kinds of responses getting

at what one needs? One makes modifications as appropriate and then proceeds with the

interviews. One must always leave time for the interviewees to expand on points that they

consider important or to introduce new topics. One may find that those new ideas will modify

future interviews.

Public opinion surveys and direct participatory methods, such as large-scale group discussions

and workshops, are often useful components of a normative forecast. They tend to enrich

understanding of the public's feelings. In many societies, but not all, public feelings are a

primary factor in the potential success or failure of a complex plan. Looked at from a slightly

different point of view, the broad participatory activities, particularly in normative forecasts that

are social or institutional as opposed to scientific or technological, can help to highlight barriers

and obstacles that must be overcome as well as openings and channels to facilitate the moves

toward the goal.

The Delphi Technique. The Delphi technique is explained in greater detail in a separate chapter

in this series. It is generally conducted in the form of a survey questionnaire to experts or

specialists to ask a systematic series of questions. The answers involve subjective judgments on

a scale of, for example, 1 to 10. The Delphi technique allows one to canvass a large number of

people and draw together a collective judgment of what they feel. The collective judgments in

Delphi are almost always over a broad range with some central tendency. Delphi is always an

input technique, the source of information, not as a final output to a study. The Delphi technique

pushes one to look further and in more depth and to use other futures research techniques to

better understand choices. The consensus component of Delphi tends to reflect traditional

thinking, whether among ordinary people or specialists. The outliers, the people who have

deviated from the central tendency, often have the most interesting things to reveal.

The Delphi technique was developed in the United States at the RAND Corporation in response

to two critical points. First, the experts whom one would like to interview are often either

unavailable or unwilling or unable to attend a conference or a workshop. Second, the question of

prestige arises in some meetings, where a particularly prestigious individual will consciously or

unconsciously suppress disagreement, leading to a far too narrow range of concepts for

consideration.

The Delphi, as a systematic mail, e-mail, or online survey, overcomes both of these difficulties.

A further feature of the Delphi is that most of the answers are quantitative. While many of the

responses involve subjective judgment, the techniques for making those responses quantitative

are important. For example, suppose we were considering the desirability of a new metropolitan

transportation system. One might have identified a number of possible goals or objectives in

such a system. One may then ask: "With regard to the items below, please evaluate each for its

importance as a goal of the anticipated metropolitan transportation system and rate it on a scale

of 1 to 10 in the marked space, with 1 being of little or no consequence, 5 of average

consequence or importance, and 10 of extremely high importance. One then lists a variety of

possible goals and leaves opportunities for the respondents to add goals that the interview

protocol misses.



Other kinds of quantitative questions of value may involve dates or questions, for example:

"What date is realistic to have operating a 100-mile metropolitan transportation system of each

of the following sorts?" Then one would list the various types: light rail, bus, trolley, etc. Next to

that, one would have a line going from "now" to "never," and perhaps marking off the first

portion in five-year intervals. Delphi provides responses to individual questions and the texture

of the relative importance and plausibility of alternatives.

One can ask impact questions. "Assuming that we had a light rail system of 100 miles (and

specify what it might cover), the principal consequences of that would be..." Then again one lists

a range of consequences and the importance scale of 1 to 10.

However, a Delphi can also ask for additional subjective input: additional suggestions to achieve

the goal, variations on the suggestions, and what might enhance or inhibit a particular item.

A test run is absolutely essential in a Delphi study, since the critical technical problem is the

proper formulation of the questions. The most common error is to make the questions too

complex with too many assumptions built into them; better to break the complexities down into

individual questions rather than load up questions with complex clauses.

Methods of Exhaustion

A large family of futures tools help to identify goals by trying to map all the possibilities

connected with the subject of concern. Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis are covered

in more detail in a separate chapter in this series.

The Relevance Tree literally creates a tree-like structure starting from some central root. Let us

say we are looking at the components of a vehicle to carry goods, say, a truck. That would be the

starting place and from that would develop three branches: the mechanism for power, the

structure, and the control mechanisms. One could then expand the tree into a half-dozen

possibilities, i.e., subsidiary branches, such as an internal combustion engine, an external

combustion engine, a turbine electric-powered vehicle, a combination combustion and electric-

powered vehicle, and so on. Under each of those possibilities, one would lay out more detailed

choices or subsidiary branches. For example, under external combustion, one might look at

steam or other kinds of propulsive liquids and gases. Under electric, one might look at such

things as batteries, fuel cells, induction, third-rail concepts, and so on.

The relevance tree has its primary value when carried to exhaustion. On many topics, the tree

can literally fill a wall in a standard size room. Using all the possibilities in multiple levels of

detail helps one to create an image of the kinds of systems that may be new and useful. In this

particular example, when one combines the details of the propulsion system with the details of

the structure with the details of the control, one may see opportunities to create some truly new

vehicles conceptually and then to consider whether their development should be a significant

goal for the organization.



The relevance tree (see next page) drawn from Joseph Martino's standard textbook,

Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, illustrates the relevance tree directed at the

automobile. If one were to work from the bottom of the tree up, one would see a possible new

goal: automobiles operated from a third rail. That is, an electric rail that already implies a track.

After consideration of that as the propulsion system, one sees that as perhaps impractical, so it is

set aside as a goal. Not enough electricity is likely to be available or enough trackage to make it

practical. When one looks at a fuel cell, one sees that its great advantage may be in generating

electrical energy using fuel derived from the burning of natural gas, which will burn cleaner than

petroleum products, thereby reducing air pollution in a heavily congested city. That alternative

becomes very attractive to consider in relationship to an Otto cycle, the standard automobile, or a

diesel engine, considering the pollution that they produce.

As one considers the fuel cell electrically driven automobile as a propulsion system, one sees

immediately the questions that one has to look at in an exploratory way. What is the status of

fuel cells today? What is the potential for future development? What is their efficiency? How

much fuel do they use? Can we get it? What pollutants would they produce, and so on? These

questions jump from the goal that the system suggests to the exploratory forecasts necessary to

conclude whether the proposed system is a good choice. In exploring the automobile one would

have similar trees developed down the design and control branch structures. What would the

automobile look like? Would the use of the fuel cells cause a different modification in design?

How would the vehicle be controlled? Source: Technological Forecasting for Decision Making,

Joseph P. Martino, Elsevier Publishing co., N.Y., 1983, p. 160-161

The Morphological Box is a technique that has been employed to a limited extent, primarily by

its inventor, Fritz Zwicky, who used it in his aeronautics research. The technique depends upon

taking the subject at hand and asking a series of critical questions, which represent all the critical

questions of the most general sort that one could ask about the system. The answers to these

questions together form a description of the system and its main components. For each question,

one provides all possible answers, which generates a large matrix. Let us assume 15 questions



and an average of a dozen responses to each question. From this matrix of 15 x 12, one can then

quickly eliminate impossible combinations and still be left with a large number of potential

systems designs. The systems are defined by selecting one answer for each question.

The morphological box is potentially one of the most powerful goal-seeking or normative

techniques one can use, but it calls for great practice and skill. Let us suppose, for example, that

we were looking at the question of a new crop to promote. Question 1 would be: "What are the

crop choices?" Question 2: "Where would they be grown." Question 3: "How would they get to

market?" Question 4: "What is the market for that crop?" Question 5: "What would be the

technical and scientific requirements?" Question 6: "What are the human resources skills

required?" and so on.

Generating three to six or perhaps 20 responses to any of those questions allows one to go from

the top of the matrix, selecting an answer to each of those questions to create a new system. Let

us trace one thread through and see what comes out.

Crop possibility: potatoes. Where: sandy soil. Market: Europe. Route: trucks and ships.

Technical requirements: harvesting, washing, drying equipment. Technical capabilities: trained

agronomists. Training requirements: specific to potato husbandry, maintenance, servicing the

crops.

One then has scores of possible goals coming out of the morphological box, which merit detailed

analysis to establish whether they are appropriate for the nation.

The strength of the morphological box is that it can bring in an extremely wide range of

possibilities. The difficulty is that it can be quite exhausting to do. One can too hastily dismiss

attractive alternatives because they seem strange, but that is the essence of creativity, to look at

the strange and unfamiliar and convert it into something practical.

Mission Flow Diagrams are a third method of exhaustion, which concentrates on the sequences

of actions required to accomplish some objective. The terminology suggests its origins in

analyzing military missions. The technique involves systematically laying out all the alternative

routes by which something may be accomplished, including hypothetical and conjectural routes.

Obviously, mission flow diagrams, like the relevance tree and the morphological box, open up

possibilities for further exploration.

Unlike the morphological box or the relevance tree, what one wants to do here is lay out all of

the steps necessary to accomplish an objective. Suppose the objective is to build a light rail

metropolitan system. Then one has to lay out everything from today to the time operation begins,

including maintenance and repair. This process allows us to say what has to occur to accomplish

all of those steps and stages.



Scenarios

Scenarios are a popular futures research tool used in normative and exploratory forecasting. It is

covered in more detail in a separate chapter in this series. The scenario has the advantage over

all other techniques in providing an integrated, coherent, consistent, and attractive picture of

some future situation. Almost all other techniques break the future down into components and

leave the integration for the reader to accomplish in his or her mind.

The scenario has many different applications. One is to put forward a future situation and use

that as the jumping-off place for further planning, thinking, or research. Another use of scenarios

is to present a completed image of some future situation, representing a full story about the

future. A third application is to present a situation radically at odds with traditional thinking. By

being organized and coherent, the scenario drives home the central point that the organization

had better begin to think in new terms and consider new goals.

While the scenarios come in many forms, the best of them are systematically created, that is,

they have a logical backbone that identifies the variables in the situation under study, sets some

overall theme for the scenario, and then assigns qualitative and quantitative values to the

scenario variables. From there, one creates the integrated image. Normative possibilities arise

since one can conjecture about an organization radically altering its basic business plan, or

responding to some big new threat, or seeing the organization in some future state after a new

technological development is developed and exploited.

They can also be written to show what might be possible in difficult situations like the Middle

East. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has to be one of the most studied and contested issues in

world affairs today. Surprisingly, in 2003 when the Millennium Project began working on

creating normative scenarios for the Middle East, there were no well-researched, objective,

plausible peace scenarios - not just frameworks, objectives, analyses, proposals, proclamations,

accords, treaties, or road maps, but scenarios: stories with causal links connecting the future and

the present like a movie script. It is easy to imagine many scenarios that describe alternative

ways the current conflict continues, but what is needed is a set of alternative peace scenarios

created by participants with a range of views. In this way, many ideas can be woven together

into a story to see how a culture of peace might emerge in the region. The Cairo Node of the

Millennium Project at Cairo University in Egypt suggested this void had to be filled by taking a

futurist "backcasting" approach to the problem: imagine peace is achieved, and then look at how

we got there.

The normative scenarios for the Middle East Peace were created through a unique process. A

series of literature reviews and interviews identified seven conditions that seemed required by all

sides prior to the emergence of peace. The review also found a set of actions to help establish

each precondition. An international panel of several hundred participants was asked to rate the

importance of each action for achieving the precondition, the likelihood that the action could

occur, and the possibility that it might backfire or make things worse. Additional actions were

also collected and rated subsequently in a second-round questionnaire. The results were used to

write draft alternative peace scenarios and submitted in a third round to the panel for critical

review. The drafts were then edited based on the results. An example of one of the scenarios is



included in the appendix of this chapter. Details of the process and results are available in

Chapter 3.7 on the CD included with the 2008 State of the Future. The questionnaires that

generated the scenarios are available at:

http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/rd1-mepeace.html


http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/MEPS-rd3.html

Scenarios also have great value in coherently presenting a future state of society as a result of a

technological development, a policy decision, or some other powerful shaping force. An example

of a goal normative scenario is included in the Appendix of this chapter.

Scenarios can come in many forms from a brief paragraph to a multi-page essay. The decision

depends on whether one is using the scenario as a way to tell its completed story or as a way to

open up people's thinking to further planning. The weakness is that some people simply find

scenarios uncongenial. They do not like the scenario approach and often consider it beneath their

attention. In that case, one must always have a complementary, more formal analytical presentation

of the same goals.

III. HOW TO DO IT

The approach to doing a normative forecast in part depends upon the institution doing the forecasts.

A private corporation, government agency, a non-governmental organization (NGO), a public

interest group — each would have different resources available and, in all likelihood, for

different purposes. Therefore, an important consideration is the time available, the purpose of the

normative forecast, and the budget or other resources at the organization's disposal. Furthermore,

if one is dealing with a scientific or technological area, the opportunities for the use of many

futures techniques is crisper, cleaner, and more certain, and is well-described in the above

material and in several references. In many situations, one will use normative forecasts in a

social institutional context rather than in a technological context. While the techniques are

applicable, the domain in which the forecasting is done influences the who and how of

participation. In either case, the generic approach is:

1. Define who is responsible for doing the forecasts. Make clear what their charter is

and what the purpose of the forecast is. Is it to look at a particular industry, a social

program, to set an objective for a province, or to determine some major

developmental objective for the nation?

2. Assign clear and unequivocal authority and responsibility and budget to that group.

3. The group should then begin to assemble all relevant information, giving strong

emphasis to trends and factors likely to influence the area under consideration. It

should gather as much solid data as available from national, corporate, international,

or other sources.

At this stage, the group can also begin some early outreach to a broad constituency, perhaps by

setting up a broadly based advisory group, by running surveys, reaching out to newspapers and



other publications, asking for inputs, holding conferences, and engaging appropriate

organizations, businesses, churches, associations, and so on to feed ideas into the group.

With all that in hand, the group should then be able to define a range of desired futures for the

subject at hand. One of the clearest ways to clarify those alternative futures is to move to an

exploratory mode and, using the various tools described above and elsewhere, lay out the

alternative futures that might develop. Having understood those, one is in a better position to say

what would we really like the future to be like. The answer to that question is the normative

goal(s).

Setting the normative goal depends upon broad understanding, wide-scale data-gathering,

understanding of trends and forces at play, and the exploration and development of exploratory

forecasts to see what would happen without a normative intervention. With all of that in hand,

one can then move toward establishing the normative goal.

4. At this point, one has to look at how one can get to that normative goal, which has to do

with the time set for the goal. The time can be a fixed year or an interval, i.e., a range of

years. What are the resources to help one get there? What is the state of science and

society that would allow one to move in that direction? One then lays out a plan for

moving to the goal. Then one continues that analysis to identify barriers—the things one

does not know, does not have, or is incapable of doing. With those absent components,

one has to lay down the specifics required to meet them. For example, it may turn out

that one does not have the right education base or doesn't have the right work-force

training to achieve a goal. Therefore, a subsidiary set of goals and plans for the necessary

level of education has to be developed, and that becomes an important part of the plan.

In contrast, one might find an absence of energy or raw materials required to meet the objectives.

How does one get that? What is necessary to overcome that barrier? This illustrates the second

component of normative forecasting—what must be done to reach the goal?

5. One then moves on to the details, setting specific objectives, subsidiary goals, and

action plans to meet those needs. Accompanying this, one lays out a schedule—what

must be done, where, and when—and how these things converge on each other to

achieve the goal.

6. The plan must also include a well-thought-through monitoring activity to ensure that

things are moving along to converge at the right times and places. If they are not

converging, the plan should allow for a substantial intervention so that they move in the

right direction.

7. As with any elaborate, complex plan, one must frequently revisit the whole forecast to

be sure that nothing significant has changed to influence the forecast or that no new

development will either accelerate it or put it off track.

8. The reader by now recognizes that no single tool or technique is subsumed by the

concept of a normative forecast. It can draw upon any resource or technique to meet the

two objectives of the normative forecasts and the associated planning.



9. As the forecast matures, going back to the various groups dealt with earlier is important

to get further input into the feasibility, enthusiasm, and objections concerning what is

proposed. Then one must move into the ever important broad constituency-building for

the plan. One must always have in mind that the costs, whether direct economic or

indirect social, have to be integrated into the plan. They become an important

component in building constituencies for the work.

IV. STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE METHOD

We have noted each technique's primary strengths and weaknesses. Overall, the strength of

normative forecasting is in being indispensable to any complex systems planning by government,

large corporations, or complex systems, such as transportation, water, and manufacturing. Its

strength is that planners and decision makers are systematically pushed into an awareness of a

wider range of possible choices. When done well, normative forecasting can give them a sense of

the relative feasibility and practicality of alternatives. A further strength is that it provides

guidance and direction for the more detailed exploratory forecasts, which are directed at the

questions of how do we get to the goals.

Intrinsic to the normative forecast is its celebration of human efficacy. Therefore, it has the very

valuable purpose of getting people out of a rut, getting them to think in new ways, and to

recognize that separately and, more important, collectively, we have the power to shape and

influence the future. Normative forecasting carries a positive sense of potential accomplishment.

Its weakness is in being too easy, doing a partial job or bringing in too narrow a range of goals to

consider because one draws on too narrow a range of people in the process. Another potential

weakness is that the complexity of normative forecasting may lead to an unfortunately complex

presentation. The fact that the process of forecasting is complex should not result in reports so

opaque that the reader is confused.

The most common weakness is not bothering to gather the necessary data to work through the

scheduling, time, and specific objectives that must be met in order to achieve the normative goal.

This intensely concentrated task involves many scientific, technological, and social components

as well as a wide range of more specific futures techniques. Thus, the most common weakness is

simply not to do that job. To get some sense of the importance of this, when President Clinton

began to formulate his health plan for the nation, which has a primary normative goal of

universal health insurance coverage, some 500 people around the federal government as well as

public volunteers were involved in understanding the situation, laying out alternatives to

reaching the goal, and understanding what the barriers and obstacles were to success. Only after

all that was done, did it enter the broader combat arena of the Congress. Upon entering the

Congress, various objections appeared, and further public policy innovations were generated and

explored. This example illustrates the open-endedness of many forecasting activities, particularly

normative forecasts.



APPENDICES

Bibliography

Ascher, William, Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners, The Johns

Hopkins University Press, 1978. This presents a very informative and critical account of

forecasting techniques applicable to policy planning, including critiques of normative

forecasting.

Cetron, Marvin J., Technological Forecasting: A Practical Approach, Gordon and Breach

Science Publishers, 1969. This useful hands-on book reflects experience with the use of these

tools in the U.S. Navy.

Glenn, Jerome C., Gordon, Theodore J., and Florescu, Elizabeth, ―Chapter 3.7 Middle East

Peace Scenarios‖ (in the CD section). 2008 State of the Future CD section . The Millennium

Project of the World Federation of UN Associations, Washington, DC, 2008. The CD-ROM

section contains details of how the Global Normative 2050 Scenario and the Middle East Peace

scenarios were constructed

Jantsch, Erich, Technological Forecasting in Perspective, Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development, Paris, 1967. Along with the Martino reference below, this is the

classic work on forecasting.

Martino, Joseph P., Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, North-Holland, 1983.

Along with the Jantsch reference above, this is the classic work on forecasting.

Mendell, A.S., Nonextrapolative Methods in Business Forecasting: Scenarios, Visions, and

Issues Management, Greenwood Press, 1985.

Schwartz, Peter, The Art of the Long View, Doubleday, 1991.



Periodicals

American Planning Association Journal, American Planning Association, 1776 Massachusetts

Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036.

Business and Society Review, Warren, Gorham & Lamon, 870 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY

10019.

The Journal of Business Strategy, published quarterly by Warren, Gorham & Lamon, Inc. 210

South Street, Boston, MA 02111.

Futures, is an international journal published six times a year by Butterworth Scientific, Ltd.,

Guilford, United Kingdom.

World Future Review, published bimonthly by the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont

Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.

Long-Range Planning, the Administrative Staff College, Greenlands Henley-on-Thames, Oxon,

United Kingdom (editorial), Pergamon Press, Fairview Park, Elmsford, NY 10523.

Planning Review, The Planning Forum, 5500 College Corner Pike, PO Box 70, Oxford, OH

45056. This publication of the Planning Forum of the International Society for Strategic

Management and Planning is an excellent continuing source of information on planning

techniques.

Strategic Management Journal, published quarterly by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 605 Third

Avenue, New York, NY 10158.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier North-Holland, 52 Vanderbilt Avenue,

New York, NY 10017.

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Carfax Publishing Company, PO Box 2025,

Dunnellon, FL 32630.



EXAMPLE OF A GLOBAL NORMATIVE SCENARIO

The 2050 Global Normative Scenario Background

Although the following may look like three alternative normative scenarios, they are intended to

be one scenario with three interdependent themes. Each theme represents a different perspective

on how change occurs. Some believe technology is the key force that has made change occur.

Others argue that changing consciousness and the human capacity is more fundamental to

long-term systemic change. Still others say that political and economic policies create the

conditions for changes in both technology and human capacity. The following global normative

scenario assumes that all three themes are important to the realization of the normative future of

2050.

The two-year process that created this scenario was initiated in 1998. A more detailed explanation

can be found in State of the Future or at www.millennium-project.org/millennium/normscen.html.

Very simply, Millennium Project participants identified and rated norms that formed the core of

the normative scenario. In order of preference, the participants selected the following top four

norms around which to form the scenario: environmental sustainability, plenty, global ethics

(the identified and accepted), and peace. The others in order of preference were health, freedom,

universal education access, equity, preservation of the human species, enlightenment, exciting

and meaningful life, self-actualization, longevity, everyone has everything they want, and

security.

The body of the normative scenario is composed of the actions to address the 15 Global

Challenges in State of the Future. These actions connected the present world to the normative

future of 2050 and provided another medium for sharing the thinking of the Global Lookout

Panel. A scenario review panel was formed of long-term normative-oriented participants of the

Project to review and improve the draft of the scenario. As this is an ongoing process, your

suggestions for improvements are welcome and may help shape next year’s edition. Even though

the following normative scenario takes into account many of the world’s pressing problems, it is

intended to illustrate very optimistic possibilities for our common future over the next two

generations.

A Normative World in 2050

By 2050 the world had finally achieved a global economy that appears to be environmentally

sustainable while providing nearly all people with the basic necessities of life and the majority

with a comfortable living. The resulting social stability has created a world in relative peace,

exploring possible futures for the second half of the 21st century.

Different explanations have been given for the series of astounding successes achieved by 2050.

Some believe that breakthroughs in science and technology were the keys, others that

development of the human potential was more fundamental, and still others that political and

economic polices made the difference. All three themes were important and mutually

reinforcing.



Technological Theme

Internet has become a right of citizenship. Businesses give free accounts to all customers;

employers give them as an employee benefit. The connection of virtually all people to the global

information and communications systems accelerated the pace of scientific research and the

introduction and diffusion of new technology. Biotechnology, nanotechnology, and

closed-environment agriculture fed the world. New and improved sources of energy made for

cleaner economic growth. Brain-like intelligent systems used neural networks to augment human

intelligence and improve decision making. Molecular manufacturing (nanotechnology) lowered

manufacturing unit cost, requiring less volume of materials and energy usage, and hence,

lowered the environmental impact of a population that had reached almost 10 billion.

Vaccinology and genetic engineering eliminated most acquired and inherited diseases, further

reducing the need for more frequent pregnancies to have a similar sized family. This was a factor

in further lowering fertility rates, even though generational mini-booms have continued from the

great population explosion in the mid-20th

century. Cyberspace had become a major medium of

civilization creating a constantly growing, non zero-sum economy and had changed day-to-day

life as significantly as the industrial revolution had changed life 200 years earlier. The success of

the International Space Station had led to other orbital habitats, the lunar base, and the pioneer

communities on Mars. Nearly 250,000 people now work in space communities in orbit, on the

moon, and on Mars, giving a new frontier for human imagination and advances in civilization.

Breakthroughs in the unified theory of matter and energy have led to a deeper understanding of

mass, inertia, gravity, and quantum behavior. Experiments have begun in the field of anti-gravity

and faster-than-light communications through the use of quantum phenomena. There are perhaps

a hundred scientists who are studying possibilities of extracting intrinsic, resting energy from

space and using it in various forms of propulsion. Cosmologists are adding more rigor to their

theories of the origin of the universe and have duplicated the earliest time in computer

simulations that seem almost exact, but the search still continues. Some signals of apparently

extraterrestrial origin have been detected but debates continue over whether they are truly

extraterrestrial or human artifacts, and if extraterrestrial, over their precise meaning.

The debates about the potential of extraterrestrial contact have forced us to think beyond our

geographic and ethnic boundaries. Additionally, scientific breakthroughs, the ease of

international and near-space travel, and the constant global communications among people of

different views on earth and near-space have also helped broaden our perspectives. As a result,

people began replacing their more parochial views and consider global ethics more seriously.

Not all people value love, truth, fairness, family, freedom, and belonging, but far more than in

the 20th

century and enough to keep a relatively peaceful world. The field of conflict resolution,

which has made great progress since its earliest applications a hundred years ago, recognizes

these simple points and its councilors build on them in resolving disputes. Interestingly, the

Great Cyber Games played by one out of every three people alive today were instrumental in the

identification and acceptance of these global ethical norms that provide much of the common

ground for today’s global cooperation. Although ethnic prejudice still exists, it has been held in

check more effectively than in the previous century.



Progress in information technology has been astounding. Microprocessors have continued to

increase in capacity; they are speeder, smaller, and less expensive. Today computers are built

into and integral with almost everything we make from machines and appliance to buildings and

artificial eyes with zoom lenses. Computer elements are molecular in size, and their operations

utilize quantum behavior.

Much of the computing capacity today makes machines simpler to use. Rather than requiring

everyone to learn to use them, the machines have been taught to listen and act to needs and

wishes of their users. The digital world’s vast amount of data has been translated into computers

and related technologies with access so easy and natural that people use them without even

knowing it, making them seem truly transparent.

Health is a widely accepted human right; equity in coverage and accessibility to quality health

services and health information exist regardless of capacity to pay, culture, race, geographic

location or social ascription. Tele-health and tele-medicine is widely available and easily

accessible. Health care providers adopt new paradigms to forecast and prevent potential health

problems through personal and public health approaches; early detection through biomonitoring

enhances management of problems that do occur.

Some people used to believe that computers would regiment us by forcing us to conform to their

specifications in order to use them. Today computers and the machines that use them have

supported diversity through mass customization. Manufacturers make very short production runs

of products that are tailored to the specific needs of very small segments of consumers, differing

in detail, but matching their criteria. The software technology that uses one’s body as passwords

has eliminated toll-booths, credit cards, and passports since people can be recognized by

machines. Shopping is now augmented by personal data bases of everything from your buying

history to clothing measurements, allowing the online or in-person to say, "This jacket will

match the slacks you bought last month," or "Don’t you want to get some matching clothes for

your niece’s doll for her birthday next week?

All of these improvements in information technology have resulted in an intricate system of

communications that some have called a "global brain" and planetary "nervous system" which

has improved the prospects for humanity. As access expanded, diminishing costs of educational

software (edutainment), any motivated person could obtain a college education and continue to

learn about everything they wanted. Individuals cross political and corporate boundaries in

pico-seconds forming new alliances unknown to traditional power structures. Rich and poor have

nearly equal access to cyberspace almost anywhere and anytime. The old distinctions between

First and Third Worlds are meaningless in cyberspace.

The old one-way media tended to be conflict-oriented––audiences were held by the drama of

disagreement. Interactive media tended to be cooperation-oriented, users were held together by

the satisfaction of collaboration. Cyberspace distributed the new wealth of information more

democratically than previous systems. As a result, anyone can get the training, market research,

planning, credit, and other resources to start their own unique businesses and sell to the global

cyberspace market. Over the past fifty years, this development has been a major factor in

reducing unemployment worldwide.



The invention of secure electronic money revolutionized retail transactions, international trade,

and provided extraordinary growth of employment. Individuals felt confident in creating

businesses and selling worldwide. While retail use of the Internet got most of the early publicity

and attention, business-to-business transactions have grown phenomenally. Today, businesses of

any size identify suppliers and partners worldwide, and barter, order, and track order status

simply and instantaneously around the world. Rules preventing wild currency fluctuations

limited financial crises and allowed small business growth with security around the world. A

fee-based system for central banks made currency transactions transparent and online prices,

information on counterparties, and purposes of trades reduced speculation.

The synergy of telematics and micro-genetics provided a jump in human evolution eliminating

many diseases and increasing human capabilities. Robots, both giant and nano, do the dangerous,

repetitive, and precision work in surgery, security, health care, space industrialization, house

cleaning, sewer pipe clearing, bridge inspections, mining, laboratories, and even the preparation

of fast food. These robots are for the most part adaptive to their environments, single purpose,

and employ biosensors that are derived from both living cells and manufactured

microprocessors.

Telecitizens, born in poorer areas but working in richer ones, helped their original countries as

tele-volunteers, accelerating the development process. The development of artificial intelligence

and its use in communications provided individuals with needed and timely medical, financial,

and other information. Software for multi-language translators increased communications among

different language groups.

The image of people walking by vending machines, reaching in their pockets, but finding no

coins and walking on, drove distributors in the early 21st Century to create voice-activated

machines that billed at the end of the month on people’s cybergame accounts. The televendors

had a simple voice recognition and synthesis program that let people speak to the machine, use

their body patterns as their password, order their sandwich and soft drink, communicate

worldwide, and play in the Great Cyber Games while they drank or ate alone or with friends.

The Great Cyber Games contained links to databases that described global problems,

opportunities, challenges, strategies, and tactics. Players received points as they identified

answers that matched or improved on those in the database or identified new problems judged to

be critical enough to add to the database. When a person scored enough points, they won

"reality." They got a prerecorded message from a policy maker working on the issue in which the

player had received the highest score. The message challenged the player to play in the "real

world game." The current real world situation was given to the player by the policy-maker,

researcher, or potential employer. When the player came up with something that was considered

valuable, the player got connected live to discuss their insight. Winners got to play in the real

global game with real actors and many got new jobs and careers.

The Great Cyber Games were attractive to policy- and other kinds of decision-makers because

they filtered out all the noise of computer conferences, journal articles, and got right to the

person with the ideas. The players liked them because they had the potential to see their ideas



realized and earn a living at meaningful work. Basic research labs used them to identify the

young scientists with the greatest potential to participate in their research. An unintended

by-product of the games was a global personnel selection system that today is credited for

contributing to the phenomenal growth in new theoretical principles that have led to many

improvements. Another surprise was that they performed the role of a global employment

agency.

The Great Cyber Games also became an informal way to prevent some of information warfare’s

destruction by promoting more precise, honest, and compassionate thought around the globe

where it was needed, when it was needed, and in the form that was needed, so that constructive

action has had a chance to keep ahead of destructive action. Granted, it continues to be a

software race to keep ahead of the bad guys.

When it was scientifically demonstrated that certainty of discovery was the most effective

deterrent to dishonesty and crime, means for improving certainty of discovery and positive

identification, based on voice analysis and cross-referencing, were instituted, global data bases

were created, and the crime rates fell. International protocols were established for sharing police

data banks and the use of non-lethal weapons such as sticky foams and aerosols that induce

sleep.

Nanotechnology transceivers with voice stress software were incorporated into clothing and

jewelry; these systems alerted the user when people were lying or becoming aggressive.

Although counter-software will always be a problem, requiring constant upgrades, people have

become more honest, or at least behave more honestly than in the last century. It is difficult to

imagine a return of dictatorships and to the organized crime networks of the past with today’s

global connectivity and honestware universally available.

The field of miniaturization has been extremely important to the success of our world.

Nanotechnology helps produce low cost and custom-designed food. As Nature breaks down dirt,

air, and water and reassembles the molecules into potatoes, nanotechnology "universal

assemblers" break materials into molecules or atoms, then follow the instructions from custom-

designed food molecules to manufacture food. With nanotechnology, whatever we can design,

we can build. The same technology that had been used to produce integrated circuit chips was

used to produce tiny machines. For example, a mass spectrograph, complete with all valves and

analysis apparatus was made on a silicon chip. Motors are now constructed with diameters of

less than a millimeter; accelerometers used in automobile air bags are too small to be seen with

the naked eye. It is commonplace to use biological materials in such chips now to sense the

reaction to various contaminants or initiate actions based on their presence. Technologists have

learned about forces that occur uniquely at this scale (e.g. lubricants can have molecules that are

too large to work properly in such machines) and have developed special molecular forms

(fullerenes) that have desired properties. Some applications today are sensors for transition from

laminar to turbulent flow on the surface of wings, and the distortion of the airfoils to delay

transition, measurement of the purity of water supplies with micro "fish", telemetry transmitters

that can be swallowed to measure reactions in the body, and measurement of the stress induced

in buildings by earthquakes using sensors that were cast into the structural concrete.



All of this activity has had a great effect on materials science. After a plateau that lasted for

several decades, superconductivity is being experienced at higher and higher temperature; now

thin film superconductors exist at -100 degrees Celsius. The developments in this field included

bio-molecules, low pressure diamond coatings, ultra-light solids that float in air, and composite

materials strong and light enough to form the skin of a large-scale rocket designed to enter orbit

with a single stage.

New forms and mechanisms of the distributed global economy began to emerge in the early 21st

century. A whole new lexicon was developed to describe the digital life forms that built cyber

culture and the collaborative economies of today. Software agents assisted our transition. They

sought new opportunities for collaboration, alerted us to synchronicity to discover the value of

new and counter-intuitive ideas, and coached us in new forms of self-organization. They even

produced images of fields of people, places, and opportunities of cooperative intent. Such "fields

of cooperative intent" are one of the new units of social organization and entrepreneurial effort.

Knowledge and wisdom have become added measures of wealth and value.

Global idea management systems were integrated into the Great Cyber Games, further

accelerating the progress of more environmentally friendly economic and technological

development. Common data protocols for unconventional science and an international registry of

new and unconventional ideas with national copyright protections were connected to

clearinghouses that reported success, failure, and inconclusive research. Use of software that

prompted the user to see potential synergies of their work with research in other fields that they

might not have otherwise considered has now become a useful protocol in all fields.

Biotechnology has created high-yield plant species that are disease- and pest-resistant, use less

fertilizer and are more tolerant of drought and brackish water. More recent applications of

biotechnology are completely changing the 10,000 year traditional use of seeds, water and land

to grow crops. Today large-scale production of food in factories using genetic techniques

produces much of the world’s food. Food factories use genetically altered micro-organisms to

organize raw materials into nutritious food. The inputs are primarily sunlight or other energy

forms, carbon dioxide, water, and nitrogenous materials. The output is amino acids and directly

consumable food. In another approach, cells from natural foods such as carrots or meat are

cloned and the outputs of the food factories are edible replications of the parent cells. Such

techniques make agricultural production possible without land. They are also beginning to

reduce the need for farmland for meat by producing novel protein, replacing meat from cows and

chickens. Such meat substitutes for fish have promoted the recovery of ocean fisheries and the

establishment of ocean plantations. Perhaps equally important, inventions in this field have also

produced the current counters to biological weapons and removal of pathogenic microbiological

agents from food.

The mapping of bacterial, human, and plant genomes, provided knowledge of genetic processes

and, to some extent, information about how to control them. The tiny interior robots of

nanomedicine repair cells, tissues, and organs. Some of the diseases that have be eliminated or

controlled are cancer, cystic fibrosis, hemophilia, rheumatoid arthritis, AIDS,

hypercholesterolemia, and some forms of mental illness. Monoclonal antibodies, sometimes

mounted in bio-chips, are being used in sensitive diagnostic tests and in drug delivery systems



that pinpoint specific sites in the body. Techniques in this field have led to genetic medicine in

which the genetic properties of humans are modified in vivo to cure or ameliorate diseases

caused by genetic anomalies. Disease diagnosis based on the analysis of one’s genetic material is

routine; these diagnoses not only relate to existing diseases, but also the propensity for future

disease and in some cases, the propensity for aberrant behavior.

The traditional view of human reproduction is still undergoing changes simultaneously with the

increasing progress toward self-determination, equal rights, economic autonomy of women, and

the evolution of male and female roles. Some of the more controversial advances have centered

on long-term male and female contraceptives, the ability to select the sex of a child before

conception, and the ability to influence genetics and biochemical processes. The world became

quite alarmed in the early 21st Century when low-cost and portable methods for determining the

sex of a baby before conception became commonly available. Many feared that parents in some

cultures would select only males, distorting the future demographics of the human race. After

several years of intense debate, threats of international sanctions, interventions of leading

personalities, and a short but rapid increase in male births in some countries, the number of

female and male births returned to balance. This left many uneasy about unforeseen

consequences of new technology. As a result, technological forecasting and assessment has

become a normal part of the work in advanced institutes today.

The World Energy Organization, created in the early 21st century, coordinated research and

helped improve policy leading to today’s safer mix of sources that have reversed the greenhouse

effect. These include hydrogen, third generation fission plants, solar power satellites, and

renewable energy source. Hydrogen has become a major source of energy for automobiles as a

medium for transporting energy from origin to use. In its gaseous form it was stored at high

density in metal hydrides and later released by a modest amount of heat. In addition to extracting

it from natural gas, it is also produced from water by electrolysis (the focus here was on a new

form of catalysis) and by high temperature disassociation of water, processes that use a great

deal of electricity or very high temperature. The former method of extraction from water has

provided the basis for an argument to build second and third generation nuclear plants and solar

power satellites, while the latter suggests large-scale solar thermal plants. An additional benefit

of the production of hydrogen from seawater has been desalination to produce fresh water and

hence prevent water conflicts in the Middle East and other potential crisis regions.

Thousands of 100-mile long robotically managed closed-environment agricultural tubes,

interspersed with photovoltaic strips across the Sahel, produced sufficient food for Africa and

exports to Asia. Surplus energy from the strips is currently exported by microwave to earth orbit

and relayed worldwide via the satellite energy grid.

The synergies of advanced research in biology and physics necessary for human space flight

have generated an extraordinary number and range of inventions, stimulated thought about the

meaning of life, history, and our common future, and created many opportunities for peaceful

international cooperation. International R & D cooperation led by INSPACECO (the international

public-private consortium) lowered launch costs to under US$500 a pound making it possible for

an individual to move to a space community with a basic support package for a quarter of a

million dollars. This, plus the growing space tourism and space lottery business (winners get a



free visit to an orbital space vacation center), has opened a political debate on space migration.

Some argue that migration from earth is inevitable; it is in the myths of many cultures. People

advocate accelerating the construction of alternative habitats in space as insurance for the human

species should an earthly catastrophe threaten life on earth. Others argue that life always moves

to new niches and our curiosity will drive us one day beyond the solar system.

Space-related inventions have created new industries and tax sources for social programs,

improved living standards, expanded access to tools by miniaturization and production processes

that have lowered the costs of many technologies from satellite communications to medical

diagnostic techniques. Income from satellite communications, solar power satellites, orbital

energy relay satellites (orbital electricity grid), lunar and asteroid mining, weightless

manufacturing, and space tourism has led to an enormous growth of private sector ventures in

space. This acceleration of the privatization of space applications has avoided the public cycles

of interest and uninterest in space support, so common in the last century.

Hierarchical institutions of the 20th

century have given way to network organizations and a

plethora of short-term, task-oriented, individually-initiated teams made possible by intelligent

software agents in cyberspace. Cyber-UN and other international organizations can only be

understood in cyberspace, because "employees" are not concentrated into one building or

geographic center from which they operate. Instead people are connected around the world under

the cyber umbrella of the international organization, but they may also be working for other

institutions such as NGOs, corporations, universities, other UN systems, and traditional systems

like nation-states and regional organizations. These cyber organizations are better thought of as

executive information systems, with knowledge visualization, that are available in cyberspace

for improved decision making by a user or group of users. This is the medium through which

harmonization of global standards was achieved and through which accountability, transparency,

and participation in the range of human enterprise today is reinforced.

Despite the technological progress and scientific insight on which today’s society is based, most

scientists and engineers believe that there is still more to come, that the future holds further

excitement, progress and discovery.

Human Development Theme

The acknowledgment that education was the solution to many problems and that the knowledge

economy was spreading rapidly, stimulated governments and corporations worldwide to increase

their investments in education, training, and applications of cognitive science. The race to

educate the world began after the World Summit on Cognitive Development in 2010. Most

institutions that had even a peripheral association with education began debating the most

equitable and cost/effective ways to make everyone knowledgeable, virtuous, and intelligent.

Internet access became a right of citizenship. Educational software was imbedded into nearly

everything that could hold a computer chip. The World Cyber Games permeated daily life,

blending entertainment and education.

The transition from a mostly illiterate global population to a mostly educated world was

achieved by the mid-2040s. The interconnection of many separate programs into a global system



of education created a cyberspace in which all could get the best education at their own pace,

learning style, and in their own language. Ethical and effective decision making was a new focus

of education. The availability of data of all sorts, married with an integrated global scholarly and

scientific knowledge base, increased the speed of problem solving in all fields, by providing a

logically structured framework into which existing and newly acquired knowledge could be

placed and assimilated in a non-redundant way for examination, discussion, and extension by

scientists and scholars worldwide and for a full range of educational applications. Academic and

business interests collaborated to create a sophisticated body of principles and techniques for

knowledge visualization and the use of artificial intelligence to make it possible to rapidly

navigate the knowledge of the world. This allowed for content and context to be connected,

reducing confusion and culture shock in cyber space.

The Global Cyber Games were integrated with the knowledge systems so that one could move

easily between play and education. An unanticipated consequence of the games was the large

number of people they helped to identify and acknowledge global ethics, and the growth of

responsible behavior and compassion.

In addition to the vast improvements in educational technology, the content of conventional

public education also changed during the early 21st century. Education successfully linked

human ecology to decision-making in an increasingly global society, including the moral basis

for decisions, the nature and management of risk, and dealing with uncertainty. It emphasized

compassionate behavior and socially acceptable values such as tolerance and diversity.

Instruction in "how to learn" and the scientific method was given greater prominence in both

educational systems and professional training programs. Multi- and trans-disciplinary techniques

and non-linear thinking approaches became common in most curricula. It is generally accepted

that the creative process included failure, chaos, uncertainty, and holding of contradictory

positions. The speed of feedback from inquiry to intelligent response is so fast today that

curiosity has become a normal mental state for adults.

Advances in cybernetics and human cognitive development increased the use of machine

intelligence to augment human intelligence, while emphasizing social and emotional

development for improved decision making. In short, it became fashionable to be intelligent and

virtuous.

It was not enough to learn and understand the history and current status of an item; in the world

of 2050 an educated person also knew a range of possible futures for that item. Many reasons

have been given for the addition of future-oriented curricula in education. Some argued that we

were simply forced into it by the increasing complexity of issues, growing numbers of people

involved in decisions, accelerating rate of change, and lead-times involved with environmental

solutions. Others pointed to new opportunities in globalization and other unprecedented

conditions, such as the international millennium celebrations and events that stimulated

increased corporate, political, academic and personal thinking about future possibilities. Futurists

had used the year 2000 as an opportunity to introduce futures methods and perspectives through

global television and Internet events. Future-oriented university courses in and around cyber

space became popular. As a result, nearly all institutions began providing routine updates on

near- and long-term future dynamics. Long-term perspectives and improved futures methodology



were increasingly applied to address the full range of global issues and opportunities. This

contributed to the improved conditions enjoyed in the mid-21st Century and expected for future

generations as well.

In addition to the popularization of executive training seminars in long-term perspectives, the

many National Futures Academies popularized and improved the quality of instruction of futures

studies through networks of universities. They helped integrate futures-oriented, creative,

non-linear thinking into educational curricula that addressed decision-making. The moral basis

for decisions, the nature of risk, and dealing with uncertainty were also integrated into these

courses. Futures research methods were converted into teaching methods to help future-orientd

instruction.

The millennium provided the focus to foster collaboration among the various inter-religious

dialogues on human values and morals that continued over several decades and through all forms

of media. This accelerated the inter-religious studies that found common moral values and

attitudes acceptable to all cultures. Religious leaders publicly acknowledged the existence and

value of a variety of approaches to spiritual enlightenment and becoming a virtuous person.

These public acknowledgments and dialogues helped to reduce the hatred created by the many

ethnic conflicts of the late 20th

century. The personal intervention of some religious leaders who

condemned those who called for violence in the name of religion reduced the use of religion as a

justification for ethnic conflict.

Although cultural and religious conflicts will still need more time to fully disappear, these new

initiatives have help to keep them in sufficient check to prevent the kinds of wars so prevalent in

the last century.

Philosophers and artists created terminology and imagery that communicated the strength of

diversity is its underlying unity and our ethical responsibilities to future generations. Global

ethics have become generally understood and scientifically documented for social stability. This

did not mean that all people adhered to global ethics, but that it became a force for social

stability. Advertising and social marketing taught tolerance and respect for diversity and equal

rights. All managers today have received training courses in ethical behavior in a multiethnic

context. As a result, thinking globally includes responsibility about global impacts.

Psychonauts exploring the mind and cybernauts exploring cyberspace helped create new forms of

notation and symbols that enabled the general public to understand the sophisticated world of 2050.

These new forms made the global education systems more intelligible to a broad range of people.

These notations and symbols helped transcultural collaboration in creating the cultures of peace

we enjoy today. Many of the new kinds of perceptions of reality and ways of knowing that

helped this transition could only have emerged through human interaction using these new forms

of notation.

Diversity and shared ethical values were encouraged by the countless celebrations of

humanity-as-a-whole at the millennium. People and institutions learned the painful lessons

generated by the many ethnic conflicts that followed the fall of the USSR. Polycultural views

were created from shared beliefs and interests that enhanced peaceful coexistence.



Polyculturalism also helped smooth the transition of nation-centric states to regional and global

institutions. Global economic success diminished the importance of excessive materialistic

desires and people looked for more meaning in their lives. Experience -- more than information

-- became the key economic value. By 2050 enough people understood that ethnic diversity is a

comparative advantage in a global economy and society, and has made our world far more

peaceful today than in the past. Diverse views from many cultures provided the insights to

manage an increasingly complex world and shared ethical values promoted cooperation and

stability.

Changes in global frames of reference and philosophies due in part to understanding of the

interaction of population and economic growth with environmental degradation gave rise to the

more enlightened age of today. The merger of the environmental movements and human rights

groups in collaboration with many leading multinational corporations made possible the global

educational campaign that made clean air, water, and land accepted as a human right. As a result,

many changes in environmental policies and behaviors have been made. It became unthinkable

to establish an environmentally dangerous project.

In the late 20th

century, it was scientifically documented that the behavior and values of most

astronauts changed as a result of the "breakaway phenomenon", the psychological reaction to

leaving earth. Seeing the earth from space caused psychological and even neurological changes

that created new neural connections associated with the concept of humanity; and, hence the

value-forming process. Human consciousness became more compassionate with the daily flood

of images of Earth from orbital communities, the lunar base, and the Mars pioneers. Many

children born in space have developed careers related to conflict prevention and reinforcing the

value of ethnic diversity. Their increasing interaction with the Earth-based groups has provided a

calming influence on potential social conflicts.

Others believed that the increasingly aging population in the global labor force helped to provide

wisdom for increasing ethical considerations in business and daily life. Still others point to the

NGO global dialogs and studies on ethics that scrutinized and encouraged improvement of

ethical standards in business as the reason for the more humane use of free markets.

Whatever the reasons, the 20th

century self-centered greed and welfare attitudes were replaced by

a more moral entrepreneurial spirit, environmental consciousness, and compassion. Growing

numbers of experienced, energetic and active older men and women are respected and occupy

important positions shared with younger groups. The traditional "linear life paradigm" where

people pass sequentially through education, work, leisure and retirement is replaced by "cyclical

life paradigms". A safety network exists to protect the elderly in need. Thanks to a variety of

public and private options, social security is robust.

Nearly all formerly less advantaged groups (the poor, the elderly, women, ethnic and racial

minorities) participate in the cybercash economy; universal literacy and Internet access allows

people to learn and work at home. Poor women were especially helped by these changes which

contributed to decreases in infant mortality rates and generated government support for

childcare, contraceptives, and family planning, as well as by the powerful role models for

women provided by various media. Inter-religious dialogs about the changing role of women,



birth control, and religion were also credited with these changes. Equal pay for equal work is

now a universal norm. Disabled persons are able to live functional lives and participate

indiscriminately in society.

The interest in assessment of the past and visioning of the future became so popular at the time

of the millennium that inquiry into new and sometimes counter-intuitive ideas became much

more acceptable. As a result, much more was learned about how to increase natural abilities by

self-control of inherent human healing power, cognition-enhancing strategies, and conscious

involvement with computer-generated artificial "life".

By the end of the 20th

century, many norms underpinning peace were widely accepted, such as

territorial integrity, non-use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, the immunity of

civilian aircraft and ships, international obligation to help refugees, the inadmissibility of

colonial rule, the unacceptableness of officially sanctioned and racial discrimination, the

undeniable equality of woman, and human rights. However, not until the world education system

became more efficient, did these norms become almost universally perceived as normal today.

The transitions from authoritarian regimes to democracies was smoothed by advanced training

programs and seminars for senior political officials to discuss with their international peers

successful transition strategies in the areas of the rule of law, respect for human rights, free

media, tolerance of political opposition, free elections, and an independent civil society.

Because of the speed and ubiquity of communications systems, decision-makers and the general

public became increasingly aware of the consequences of their decisions -- almost as they

occurred. Feedback on the results of actions is so rapid, which in turn allows for new,

self-correcting decisions. This has reduced the time from early warnings to timely and effective

responses, and contributed to the solution of many of the seemly intractable problems of the 20th

century.

Just as bodybuilding became fashionable among many in the late 20th

century, so too mind

building has become fashionable in the early 21st century. Parents learned that giving their babies

diversity of environment with consistency of love enhanced cognitive development. Nutritional

supplements known as "brain food" became common. Rumors persist that we have crossed the

threshold of using gene therapy to increase intelligence.

Cognitive science and behavioral sciences increasingly intermingled, helping policy makers to

understand how to improve mental as well as social well being. One of the most successful

software applications of cognitive science was "Think Smart", a self-customizable virtual reality

program with telepresence options that directly stimulated neural development. Eye tracking,

voice commands, and neural output in a virtual reality eyepiece allowed users to visualize their

capacities as virtual icons and use their mental strengths to improve their weaker areas. The more

adventurous used this software interactivity when connected to telepresence global education

systems and the Great Cyber Games. Tele-robots give the telepresence sense by letting users

hear and often feel what a remote robot is seeing, hearing and feeling at the time. Such

telepresence makes people actually feel that they are swimming in the deep ocean, walking on

the surface of Jupiter, or living in an ant colony, when they are sitting a home. Unfortunately



some people prefer these simulations to real life. However, despite the problems it has generated,

simulation is a new educational tool of great power.

Synergies from research in cognitive science and sociology gave NGOs better methods to

promote peace, engage in conflict resolution, and build consensus. New knowledge of brain

reasoning and decision processes was applied to enhance the brain’s ability for complex

reasoning. The philosophy of science and cognitive science helped society reach a better

understanding of objective vs. subjective truth.

With global consciousness (awareness that everyone is aware of the world as-a-whole)

institutional forms continuously reinvented themselves. Few hierarchical or network institutions

existed in a continuous sense as in the 20th

century. Instead they became fields for collaborative

actions of varying time duration. Every four years the Olympic movement reinforced this

consciousness through its games in both cyber and three-dimensional space. In 2040, when the

Mars Pioneers won the first Olympic competition in solar sailing between Earth and lunar orbit,

humanity seemed to pass some threshold of consciousness. We became aware that we were no

longer an Earth-only species but will become a spacefaring one.

Our human capacity is just now beginning to be understood. The current debate about a possible

signal from extraterrestrial intelligence is revolutionizing our values, philosophy, and views of

the human potential as we enter the second half of the 21st century.

Political Economic Policy Theme

The number of wars decreased as democracies and respect for cultural diversity increased in the

early 21st century. Although old cultural conflict wounds of the past still flare occasionally, we

can successfully avert them or prevent them for growing into larger conflicts. The resulting

social stability nurtured economic growth and created 2 billion people in the global middle class

by 2010. This increased conditions for further stability and sustainable growth that moved over

5 billion people into the middle class by 2050.

The UN Secretariat’s early warning and monitoring system coupled with a new rapid response

capability were instrumental in preventing international and internal wars. Its indicators of peace

and security are transparent for cross-referencing by media, governments, NGOs, and the public.

This transparency - especially with the media - connected early warning with appropriate and

timely action. Instead of a standing UN Army, nations agreed to identify troops which would be

immediately available for rapid response peacekeeping and peace building missions which have

been trained together with other such national troops and which use compatible equipment and

communications. NGOs cooperated with this system by establishing networks to monitor

indicators of conflict and discuss and link strategies for rapid deployment of non-military

resources. States were able to reduce their military budgets by paying a "security insurance fee"

to the UN Security Insurance Agency to work in tandem with UN Peacekeeping as a rapid

development and peace making contingents. The UNSIA was able to avoid the veto by being

governed by a public-private-civic governing council that worked in partnership the UN Security

Council.



As the complexity of global issues and the number of people involved in the decision-making

process increased, institutions found new approaches to management and decision making. Most

hierarchical institutions have evolved into network organizations and have increased their public

accountability, transparency, and participation in management. Many network organizations

have evolved into fields of common interests as individuals cross political boundaries

electronically, making new alliances unbeknownst to traditional power.

The UN Secretariat and Security Council have been streamlined and are now supported by

advanced executive information management systems, software agents, and knowledge

visualization systems. Nearly all the work of the UN now occurs in "Cyber UN," leaving the

Secretariat building in New York more for ceremonial duties. Some of the UN’s specialized

agencies have been merged while others have increased in importance like the WTO, WHO,

WSO (World Sustainable-development Organization), and INSPACO. These global institutions

have harmonized international standards, protocols, and coordination among international

organizations, governments, corporations, and NGOs. Both multi-national corporations and

NGOs have become transnational in their policy influence. Regional institutions have also grown

in importance.

The transition from dictatorships to democracies is now complete. Authoritarian regimes

cooperated in the transition realizing that democratic processes were increasingly necessary for

social stability and the generation of wealth on a par with global norms. Improved information

technology helped make UN Electoral Units instrumental in this transition by providing effective

election design, management, and monitoring. Threats to make development assistance and loans

from international organizations dependent on progress toward democracy sometimes proved

counterproductive. The incentive of participation in the Global Partnership for Development

(GPD) proved effective as a partnership between high income countries and those with less

industrial and entrepreneurial cultures to improve economic development. GDP membership

required respect for human rights and policies to address environmental security. If they were

abridged or thwarted sufficiently, intervention by UN peacekeeping forces could be authorized

by the Security Council. A little-noticed article in the GPD called for acceptance of periodic

NGO assessments of progress on democratization and the reduction of corruption. The

corruption reports have become an annually anticipated event and have proven to be an effective

instrument through which countries have reduced corruption.

As the world progressed toward peace, the reduction in arms R&D, production, stockpiling,

trade, and military personnel was accelerated along with the efforts to convert military

technology to civilian uses. This contributed to government debt reduction. The synergies of

advanced research in biology, physics, and engineering necessary for human space habitation

have created new industries and tax resources for universal education programs. This helped to

justify government investment into research that lowered launch costs. While government funds

for the initial solar power satellites, orbital habitats for space manufacturing, lunar base, and the

Martian station were necessary, the majority of space applications are financed and owned by

global corporations, INSPACECO, or a combination of both.

The International Criminal Court was established with enforcement powers to punish those

convicted of atrocious collective and communal violence. In close cooperation with the court,



the UN Secretariat created a parallel early warning system focusing on potential and emerging

crime threats.

Internet access became a right of citizenship as governments realized that it was a logical

extension of the public library. Telecommunication monopolies were replaced by local, regional,

and global enterprises as new technological capacities were introduced. Content and use of

international networks are regulated as little as possible, although there are many specialty

groups that make blocking software that prevents the reception of offensive materials to those

groups. Imbedded software code strengthened the enforcement of intellectual property rights.

Participatory processes informed by futures research continue to develop and improve national

and corporate visions of the future. Socio-cultural indicators were developed to improve

analysis. The interaction of these indicators with global scientific, economic, political and

environmental factors is now standard. This led to the creation of the common protocols used at

regional intergovernmental meetings and countries to share their futures perspectives and

communicate the implications of decisions to the public.

NGOs contributed to confidence building, conflict resolution, and preventive diplomacy. NGOs

are now regularly included in decision making of international organizations.

The growth and integration of regional trade groups has nearly completed the transition to the

WTO objective of free trade with common standards of behavior. The globalization of markets,

media, information technology, education, urbanization, and the harmonization of international

standards seem to be sufficient to prevent regression to dictatorships and national wars. The IMF

issued new SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) that made it easier for developing countries to pay

off their debt. Standard central bank rules on the issuance of currency were finally observed by

all countries,, which now helps control inflation. The Global Securities and Exchange

Commission was established to tame currency markets, and central banks made currency

transactions sufficiently transparent to reduce speculation. Small business was promoted through

access to land, credit, technology, and training. Special attention was given to women.

Increasing numbers of people now accept that access not possession is the measure of wealth.

This new cultural norm helped to change consumption patterns. Global dialogs about ethics and

common values have helped the New Wealth Indicators (NWI) which replaced GDP as the

primary focus for national accounting. This has stimulated more ethical and free markets. The

increasing participation of those 65-85 in the labor force provided additional wisdom for

increasing ethical considerations in business.

Entrepreneurial spirit and stewardship replaced the welfare attitude. Employee ownership is now

common in the many forms of Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) which made corporate

shares available to employees. Employees access their own company’s Intranet to see elements

of their planning system, work flow, production indicators, etc.; this allowed them to more

intelligently participate in the business.

NGOs identified, monitored, and publicized sources of the constraints to free markets and

unethical business practices around the world. Participatory processes between labor,



management, and consumers helped better match training and future work to keep employment

high. Public voting on political elections and potential corporate decisions of global importance

via global networks has become a common practice. A side benefit was the continual

identification and acknowledgment of the many hidden and delayed costs assumed by

government, which in turn led to the acceptance of full cost accounting today.

The Internet gave equal access to rich and poor as prices for computers, software, and

telecommunications fell, capacity grew, and ease of use improved. It accelerates economic

development by providing greater and faster access to the world’s knowledge, and became the

medium for participating in the world’s economy. It distributed the wealth of information more

democratically than previous systems. Electronic money made international commerce more

secure, which allowed instant global delivery of many services. Tele-citizens from poorer

countries working in richer ones can help their original countries as tele-volunteers to the

development process.

The Great Cyber Games helped to distribute the workload from those who were overloaded to

the underemployed. The cyber game’s Work Unit allowed people to bid on work from the

overloaded.

Although the 1999 World Conference on Science was not initially hailed as a great success, it

did initiate the discussions that laid the foundations for the political agreements to create and

accept the UNESCO-ICSU definitions of terms, standards, and measurements that proved

necessary for effective political and economic polices that eventually achieved sustainable

development by the mid-21st century. The use of environmental tax incentives, product labels,

and international sanctions on violators of a series of UN treaties related to sustainable

development required these scientifically determined definitions and measures. With these

changes in policy and an increasingly informed global market, businesses competed to show

their environment correctness. The more successful companies got a jump on the competition by

creating their own labeling programs prior to government policies.

Although "sustainable development" had become the most internationally accepted goal for

humanity, it was not realized until several powerful personalities provided the spark to move the

world from "lip service" to more serious action. Companies created their own green labels as a

competitive advantage with those who didn’t use environmentally sound production practices.

Consumer groups helped the knowledge and service companies find the industrial supplies and

products for their businesses that were created in more ecologically sound ways. "Green"

producers and consumers united in political movements that changed waste-subsidizing

economic policies. (For example, providers began charging for the real costs of water, nuclear

energy, etc.). The global inter-religious discourses helped to make reasonably clean air, water,

and healthy soil a human right rather than a factor in economic cost/benefit analysis.

The World Sustainable-development Organization (WSO) was created to provide a global focus

for business, government, and individual efforts to invest into sustainable development. The

International Court of Environmental Arbitration and Conciliation has become the key

instrument for advising the UN Security Council on environmental security actions. UN

Peacekeeping forces were deployed when the ICEAC ruled against a state that was unwilling to



stop the leakage of nuclear waste that endangered several countries. Since then the threat of UN

military intervention has been sufficient to cause remedial actions. Intergenerational equity has

become a major global value and legal principle.

The WSO provided a global collection point for contributions and investments into alternative

sources of energy, energy storage, and efficiencies to extend non-renewable energy sources. In

response to global warming, it worked with oil companies to help them expand into renewable

energy sources. It also provided political leadership for INSPACO to place earth rectennas for

solar power satellites in China and India. WSO helped local authorities in cooperation with

farmers, agribusinesses, and environmental NGOs provide natural habitat corridors and

integration of habitat in agriculture to protect biodiversity. WSO’s collaboration with local

authorities helped them set goals or limits for percent of land-use for natural pristine reserves,

low-intensity agriculture, and high-intensity agriculture.

Ecological and energy taxes were initiated to create disincentives for inappropriate energy use

and tax incentives for less polluting alternative energy sources. All stages of the production

process were included (extraction, production, distribution and consumption). Corporate-NGO

partnerships developed model sustainable communities in different settings around the world

that were designed around reduced consumerism, sustainability, community values, traffic-free,

sylvan spaces, with fewer than 2,000 people. Buying clubs and consumer unions encouraged

consumers to purchase from service industries that drew from more environmentally friendly

industrial processes.

Better government policies were stimulated by the establishment of national accounts that

included the economic, social, and health impacts of the depletion of natural resources. National

laws were developed to compensate victims of pollution and other environmental damage.

Tradeable pollution permits were used to insure international compliance to fix global emission

limits for countries and industrial sectors. With broad public support, governments entered into

voluntary agreements with industry to commit themselves to go "beyond regulation" in exchange

for a relaxation of administrative and compliance costs of regulations (data collecting, reporting,

verification).

Similarly, there are now government incentives for smaller and healthier families, effective

long-term contraceptives, and low infant mortality rates. Since family planning or spacing has

become acceptable in nearly all cultures, it is unlikely that birth rates will increase in the near

future. Birth rates have fallen sufficiently that now more people worry about sufficient

population growth to support the world’s increasingly aging population.



EXAMPLE OF A REGIONAL NORMATIVE SCENARIO

A Normative Scenario for the Middle East

Two other Middle East Peace Scenarios are available online at:

http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/ME-Peace-Scenarios.html

Foreword

A new story is needed for the Middle East.

The old story seems like "bite hands," a game played in the Middle East by two boys. Each puts

a hand in the other's mouth. Both bite hard until someone gives up. "Give me justice or I bite

harder!" "Give me peace or I bite harder." The following three normative scenarios provide new

stories for the Middle East intended to stimulate and be a resource for new discussions and

actions for peace.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has to be one of the most studied and contested issues in world

affairs today. Surprisingly, there are no well-researched, objective, plausible peace scenarios -

not frameworks, ―in other words‖, or objectives, analyses, proposals, proclamations, accords,

treaties, or road maps, but scenarios: stories with causal links connecting the future and the

present like a movie script. It is easy to imagine many scenarios that describe alternative ways

the current conflict continues. But what is needed is a set of alternative peace scenarios created

by participants with a range of views. In this way, many ideas can be woven together into a story to

see how a culture of peace might emerge in the region. The Cairo Node of the Millennium Project

at Cairo University in Egypt suggested this void had to be filled by taking a futurist

"backcasting" approach to the problem: imagine peace is achieved, and then look at how we got

there.

The following normative peace scenarios were created through a unique process. A series of

literature reviews and interviews identified seven conditions that seemed required by all sides

prior to the emergence of peace. The review also found a set of actions to help establish each

precondition. An international panel of several hundred participants was asked to rate the

importance of each action for achieving the precondition, the likelihood that the action could

occur, and the possibility that it might backfire or make things worse. Additional actions were

also collected and rated subsequently in a second-round questionnaire. The results were used to

write draft alternative peace scenarios and submitted in a third round to the panel for critical

review. The drafts were then edited based on the results. Details of the process and results are

available in Chapter 3 on the CD included with the 2008 State of the Future.

The questionnaires that generated the scenarios are available at:



http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/MEPS-rd3.html



While writing these scenarios, it became increasingly clear that the speed of building better

conditions must be so fast that the voices of those who would have us understand the past before

we move forward are less audible than before. It is a race. It is easy to say there are many

alternative scenarios for the Middle East that show variations on the current violence, but

without plausible stories of how peace could evolve with cause-and-effect relations woven into

peace scenarios, it is difficult to motivate people to move toward more cooperative pursuits to

build a new story for the region.

Scenario 1. Water Works

Now that peace seems to have been finally achieved in the Middle East, everyone is claiming

credit for the success. Historians will document the many causes, but most agree today that when

the First Lady of Egypt responded to the worsening water crises by inviting UNEP, UNDP, and

the Quartet (EU, United States, Russia, and the UN) to be the co-conveners of an exploratory

conference on Middle East water, a new sense of hope began to grow in the region.

Since the previous leadership in Israel had said it would take no significant steps in the Quartet's

Roadmap until attacks on Israelis stopped, and since the more militant Palestinians had said they

would not stop until Israel withdrew from the occupied areas, a new approach had to be found.

Going beyond the mid-1990s water agreements between Israel and the PLO, the Middle East

Water Conference concluded that a series of regional water negotiations would be chaired by a

UN Envoy appointed by the Secretary-General and funded by the Quartet. The conference would

include delegations from Israel, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria,

Turkey, and Lebanon, plus the Quartet and observers, and would proceed from the premise that

regional water scarcity was inevitable without major desalination; the focus had to be not just

redistribution of unsustainable current sources but increased water supply. The US representative

stressed this throughout the conference, saying that water-sharing agreements alone would not

lead to peace, even if the United States agreed to referee infractions. Producing more water was

the key to building trust.

Others believed that the real watershed event leading to peace was the resignations of both

Sharon and Arafat, which cleared the way for the establishment of SERESER to coordinate the

extraordinarily complex set of agreements, projects, study commissions, joint corporations, and

oversight of the fund for joint projects in cooperative research that evolved over the years. Quiet

talks among moderates on both sides produced the Geneva Accords, which led to further quiet

talks sponsored by the Quartet that spelled out the conditions for SERESER-a body that took its

name from the first letter of seven preconditions for peace: Secure borders for Israel,

Establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state, Resolution of the Jerusalem

question, an End to violence by both sides and an effort to build confidence, Social and

economic development, Education, and Resolution of Palestinian refugee status.

Still others said that without secret negotiations by the hardliners, none of this would have been

possible. Just as Switzerland provided good offices for moderates to meet in secret and produce



the Geneva Accords, Switzerland welcomed the meetings of hardliners, which took a circuitous

route getting to the negotiations table.

It all started in Iraq. Sunni Muslims did not want Iraq to become the second Shia Islamic

Republic, so representatives of the International Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni) approached the

US Administrator in Iraq to offer cooperation, which included efforts to resolve the Israeli-

Palestinian conflict. The United States had to give greater emphasis to democratization than

military management in Iraq and had to prevent breaking Iraq into Switzerland-like cantons,

which would give the Shia the upper hand.

Since it was better to have peace with Israel and a democratizing Iraq than an Iran-Iraq Shia

juggernaut, Sunni hardliners agreed to meet secretly with Israeli hardliners. The US-Swiss

insistence that the meetings begin where the moderates left off in the Geneva Accords delayed

the negotiations, but in retrospect turned out to be the only workable framework for them.

Regardless of what historians finally credit as the key trigger for peace, the water negotiations

provided a consistent side channel for keeping hope alive. Since water is the most universally

recognized human need and the negotiations were more focused than general peace negotiations,

they helped to build confidence among the Israelis and Palestinians that peace might be possible.

For example, the section of the Wall that enclosed the western mountain aquifer that provides

Palestinians in the West Bank with over half their water was rebuilt as a result of the water

negotiations. This confidence spilled over into other negotiations in the region, but when these

became deadlocked, the Middle East focus returned to the water meetings to restore trust. As

water agreements were reached, the Arab Integrated Water Resources Management Network,

USAID, the Arab-Israeli joint Regional Center for Research on Desalination in Oman, and

UNDP quickly implemented authorized programs, such as emergency water relief systems in

Gaza.

The first major success in increasing water supply was the agreement that dramatically

accelerated construction of reverse osmosis desalination plants to counter future water scarcity.

A commitment to finance the Dead Sea canal and a desalination plant at the Dead Sea to produce

water for equal distribution to Jordan, Israel, and Palestine was the first partnership of Israeli

technology and Arab oil money. Another agreement followed to build an aqueduct, an irrigation

system, and a network of channels from Turkey to Syria, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel. These and

subsequent projects have made water available to all today through a common infrastructure for

the region. Joint Arab-Israeli educational institutions were established to focus on hydrology,

hydraulic engineering, and systems for the transport and distribution of the desalinized water.

This also provided the confidence to begin building new oil pipelines from the Gulf to the

Mediterranean Sea, with an outlet in Palestine and another in Israel, which will reduce

dependence on geographic pinch points in the Gulf and the Red Sea and will help Palestinian

economic development.

Meanwhile, many of the 4.1 million registered Palestinian refugees were in desperate need of

education. The collapse of the USSR, the expulsion of Palestinians from Arab Gulf countries,

and the closing of most PLO institutions after their forced departure from Lebanon in 1983

meant that access to secondary, informal, and higher education became more and more difficult



for refugees. At the same time, the UN Relief and Works Agency had less money to provide

refugees with basic services, let alone quality education. The construction of the Wall further

complicated access to education, so tele-education seemed the only reasonable course. With UN

and EU endorsements, the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian diaspora gained the political

will to raise the initial money from wealthy Arab donor states and personalities to create tele-

education programs and initiate an education Peace Corps to support tele-education in refugee

camps. As these programs began to show signs of success, such as students getting scholarships

to universities and others creating online businesses, Israel - as a sign of good will - contributed

to expanded operations. This triggered matching funds from Arab countries.

Al-Quds Open University of Palestine and the Open University of Israel jointly implemented the

unofficial tele-education program with help from several NGOs and UNESCO, enlisting

renowned educators and providing new tele-curricula that emphasized respect and hope for the

future. Tele-education reached more women and taught the next generation the value of

individual efforts to succeed, since their education was self-motivated and self-paced. Tele-

education joint learning activities among Palestinians and Israelis broke down stereotypes, led to

enough trust to organize some face-to-face meetings, and increased the commitment and ability

to achieve peace in the region.

These developments led to the Great Peace March organized by youth groups. Some of the youth

leaders came from the tele-education classes; others were alumni of the Peace Child projects that

quietly brought teenagers from both sides together over the years. The youth groups called on the

political leaders of both sides to end the hostilities and sign the peace accords, the same accords

that later some of these "next generation" leaders would implement as civil servants in the

Governments of Palestine and Israel.

While the Great Peace March was being covered by Al Jazeera, CNN, and the BBC, the

President of Katun stunned the UN Security Council in a closed session by advocating a medical

solution: "Diplomatic, military, political, and economic strategies to make peace in the Middle

East have failed. It is time to take a public health approach," he said. "All countries have

processes to take mentally ill people into custody when they are a danger to themselves and or

others, and give them tranquilizers against their will. If so for one person, then why not for two?

If so for two, then why not for many?" The Security Council Members could not understand

where the President was going with this. He continued, "Clearly much of the Middle East is

mentally ill; therefore, I propose that the Security Council authorize a UN force to put

tranquilizers in the air and water systems of the conflicting parties until peace is achieved."

No one knew what to say. Was he serious? The silence in the Security Council became

unbearable. Finally the President of Katun said: "You know I am right and you know it will not

happen. So I propose instead that a UN Peacekeeping Force be equipped with tranquilizer

bullets, sticky foam, and other non-lethal weapons and be deployed in areas of conflict or

potential conflict." The President pulled out a piece of paper and read: "This UN Force would:

Enforce the UN General Assembly resolution that clearly defined the borders.

Oversee the Israeli withdrawal from all areas occupied by it since the 1967 war.



Protect the Quartet's pollsters who are assessing Israeli and Palestinian views on the

proposed borders to make sure that the agreements would survive regime changes within

Israel and Palestine.

Enforce the agreement on religious rights that guaranteed access to holy places in

Jerusalem to all creeds."

The UN Security Council approved the recommendations. Within weeks of the arrival of the UN

Peacekeepers, SERESER's operations were expanded, all Arab states formally recognized Israel

as an independent state, and the UN General Assembly welcomed Palestine as the newest UN

member state. Hardliners on both sides of the secret talks in Switzerland insisted that some

public process be created to "set the record straight," and through SERESER Archbishop Tutu

was called in to help establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. The commission, instead

of the streets, became the focus of much of the heated debate. Then, like the water negotiations,

the commission became a moderating influence to reduce the violence and to focus on issues of

justice. "Town meetings" were held throughout the region to discuss the UN's role. The Israeli

delegation in the hardliners' negotiations addressed the Israeli resistance to UN Peacekeepers by

getting an agreement that UN forces would have a US commander.

Even before these political agreements were completed, the UN Special Coordinator's Office, or

UNSCO, brought together the leaders of the Palestinian Elected Local Councils to design a

comprehensive social and economic development process that included self-help participatory

planning for local development in the Palestinian territories. People began to assume

responsibility for developing their own communities, while seeking external technical and

financial assistance.

UNSCO, in coordination with the Palestinian Authority and SERESER, helped bring in external

assistance for this development process by calling representatives together from different

international agencies (World Bank, IMF, EU, USAID, UNDP, and international NGOs) and the

local coordinating committees representing the Ad-Hoc Liaison Committee, the Local Aid

Coordination Committee, and several Palestinian NGOs. Business and religious leaders were

also included. New Palestinian leaders who emerged from inter-religious dialogues and the water

negotiations earned the respect of their Israeli counterparts, making cooperation possible.

Palestinian Elected Local Councils received training from Shorouk (the local participatory

planning and development process in Egypt) on how to mobilize local groups of people, help

them assess their resources, and plan their future. With UNSCO guidance, this self-help

approach attracted resources and expertise. Some Palestinian youth from the United States,

United Kingdom, France, and Canada returned to mobilize local Palestinian youth grassroots

programs that were financed and launched by wealthy US and Arab millionaires who saw the

benefits of bringing young people who had been fully exposed to democratic principles and the

Information Age into direct contact with their Palestinian peers. The self-help participatory

program ran in juxtaposition with tele-education to supplement each other, and the education

Peace Corps and self-help volunteers worked together.



As the local participatory planning processes became more popular, their results became

connected to development budget decisionmaking of the Palestinian Authority and SERESER.

As Palestinian young people began to see results, their faith in their future increased; this in turn

focused their energy on development of their communities. As a result, Islamic militia groups

found fewer volunteers. Natural local leaders emerged throughout the process in each

community. Those leaders fed the evolution of representative government based on liberal

economic principles. Regular transactions between Palestinians and government officials made

the government more accountable to its citizens and provided a trust-building mechanism that

was critical to the evolution of democratic culture.

Probably the most difficult issue other than the return of refugees was jurisdiction of Jerusalem.

Proposals to declare Jerusalem an international city, establish a UN Trusteeship, and even set up

time-sharing arrangements were debated. Finally it became clear that Israel would agree to return

to its 1967 borders, including those within Jerusalem, and the Palestinians would agree to give

up the right to return to Israel except in special humanitarian situations. All refugees did have the

right to return to the new nation of Palestine. All agreed that a plan for peacefully sharing holy

sites had to guarantee free access to these areas that would recognize the religious rights of all

creeds.

However, it was not until a unique process created a time-sharing agreement that UN

Peacekeepers could oversee the arrangement. A preliminary "calendar-location matrix" was

proposed, which eventually identified all the possible "time slots" and holy sites. It included the

times of day when the highest demand locations coincided with the highest demand times of

year. Parties who wanted access to the various date/location combinations in the matrix were

given the opportunity to rank their preferences from highest to lowest. Each party rank ordered

all the cells in the matrix. Initially UNSCO and then SERESER (selected by agreement by all the

parties) used the rankings to assign a party to each of the date-location slots. Statements by the

respected leadership of the three religions supported the idea and accepted that only a lay

administration of the matrix process could lead to an eventual agreement.

There were conflicts, but SERESER used its judgment to complete the matrix. Some seemingly

impossible impasses were solved by giving jurisdiction for alternating years. Others were

resolved by the special lay committee for ongoing disputes. Once the master calendar-location

matrix was filled in, it was made public for final commentary. With minor modifications, the

final Jerusalem Matrix is still used today.

One factor that helped heal the region was the Arabic television series "Salaam-Shalom" about

two girls-one Palestinian and one Israeli. They met in a peace camp and made a pact to counter

the hatred in their communities. Although the Peace Child exchanges between Palestinians and

Israelis included only a small number of teenagers, it did stimulate conversations on both sides

that added to the belief that peace might be possible one day. The idea was approved by the

hardliners' talks in Switzerland, which, it was rumored, even suggested several story ideas.

Each week the girls on the television show confronted seemingly impossible obstacles, and each

week they overcame them with extraordinary compassion and intelligence. Television sets across

the world showed how the girls used cell phones connected to the Internet to create mini swarms



of sympathizers who ran to the area and overwhelmed an impasse. "Copycat" peace swarms

began to appear in the real world. Young people armed with their "peace phones" started to call

everyone in their areas to calm emotions at checkpoints and other areas of confrontation.

Almost immediately after the first few peace swarms, a Peace Phone Internet weblog and photo

gallery was set up, opening a worldwide window on the process and creating a near-

instantaneous "global fair witness" to the outcomes of each swarm. The "before" and "after"

photos on the weblog, together with the weekly "Salaam-Shalom" television shows, added global

pressure for more rational negotiations that finally drew the lines for peace.

Radio talk shows were alive with discussions about each TV program. The one most vigorously

discussed had the girls creating a peace swarm to support Archbishop Tutu's suggestions on how

to establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission. As "Salaam-Shalom" was recognized as a

successful television series, an adults' version followed that had politicians and other leaders

challenged to solve more sophisticated problems of balancing peace and justice. Dismantling

settlements in the West Bank nearly caused a civil war. The Wall took a longer time. Both

transitions were helped by the active involvement of the media and the Truth and Reconciliation

Commission.

With the evolution of democratic processes in the region and continued security guarantees from

the United States, Israel surprised many in the Middle East when it ratified the Nuclear Non-

Proliferation Treaty as a gesture of long-term good will and allowed IAEA inspectors to verify

their dismantling of nuclear weapons. These actions led even the skeptics to nod their heads and

say that this time maybe it really would be a lasting peace.

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