7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

1/25

Budget and Fiscal Trends

Prepared by the North DakotaLegislative Council Staff

January 8, 2013

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

2/25

$14.8 $68.0 $295.5$361.8

$996.8

$69.0

$1,739.1

$2,162.7

$2,520.7

$2,753.0

$4,271.9

$4,783.2

$157.8

$154.7

$194.6

$1,179.7

$621.8

$14.5

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Executive Budget

Beginning Balance Ongoing Revenues Transfers

Actual Actual Actual Actual

Genera l Fund Revenue s

Beginning Bala nc e, Ongoing Revenues, and Transfer s

Average biennial ongoing revenues increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 15.4%

Governors recommended ongoing

revenues increase is 12.0%

Total$1,911.7

Total$2,385.4

Total$3,010.8

Total$5,890.5

Total$4,866.7Total

$4,294.5

2

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

3/25

$717.8

$841.9$1,046.5

$1,267.2

$2,131.7

$2,523.1

$452.5

$587.7

$681.7 $729.3

$883.1$926.1

$102.9 $232.3$239.7 $234.4

$372.2 $380.5

$465.9$500.8

$552.8 $522.2

$884.9$953.5

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Executive Budget

Sales Tax Individual Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Others

ActualActualActualActual

General Fund Revenues Major Revenue Types

Actual average biennial sales tax increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 32.7%

Governors forecasted sales taxtax increase is 18.4%

3

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

4/25

$33.4 $56.6$153.0 $305.8

$884.2

$1,331.9

$38.8 $53.9 $87.8$205.9

$246.2

$520.3

$161.8

$191.4$1,073.3

$1,481.1

$120.5$242.1 $558.3

$1,056.5

$1,464.1

$1,603.6

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Executive Budget

State Share Legacy Fund Tribes Political Subdivisions Special Funds

ActualActualActualActual

Tot a l Oi l & Gas Gross Product ion Tax

and Oi l Ex t rac t ion Tax Revenues

Total$352.6

Total$799.1

Total$3,829.6

Total$5,128.3

Total$192.7

Total

$1,568.2

4

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

5/25

$71.0 $71.0 $71.0 $71.0

$300.0 $300.0$49.5 $171.1

$487.3

$985.6

$341.8 $341.8

$800.3$939.8

$22.0

$22.0

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Executive BudgetState disaster relief fund Strategic investment and improvements fund

Property tax relief sustainability fund Permanent oil tax trust fundGeneral fund

ActualActualActualActual

St at e Share of Oi l & Gas Gross Produc t ion Tax

and Oi l Ex t rac t ion Tax Revenues

Total$242.1

Total$558.3

Total

$1,464.1

Total$1,603.6

Total$120.5

Total$1,056.6

5

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6/25

$1,816.9$2,000.5

$2,574.3$3,296.6

$4,236.7

$4,786.2

$2,132.2$2,347.2

$2,494.7

$3,682.2

$3,319.5

$3,182.6

$1,157.5$1,438.0 $1,555.0

$1,960.2

$3,042.8

$4,815.9

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

General Fund Federal Funds Special Funds

Executive

Budget

Appropr iat ions General Fund, Federal Funds,

and Spec ia l Funds Appropr iat ions

Average biennial general fund

increase from 2003-05 to 2011-13is 23.8%

Governors recommendedgeneral fund increase is 13.0%

6

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

7/25

$2,317.6

$2,981.2

$3,534.6

$3,795.7

$256.7

$315.4

$702.1

$990.5

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Ongoing One-Time Total

Total$2,005.5

Total$2,574.3

Total$3,296.6

Total$4,236.7

28.6%Increase

18.6%Increase

Appropr iat ions Ongoing and One-Tim e

General Fund Appropr iat ions

7

7.4%Increase

Total$4,786.2

Executive

Budget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

8/25

$604.8 $636.7

$715.5

$1,114.7

$1,244.0

$1,043.3

$411.1$484.4

$593.9

$652.1

$941.0

$1,176.9

$364.0$389.6

$472.0

$593.4

$657.8

$912.6

$83.5

$105.2

$173.1 $167.1 $159.6 $180.0

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

K-12 Human Services Higher Education Corrections

Appropr iat ions Major Genera l Fund Appropr ia t ions

Average increase-21.3%2013-15 biennial decrease-16.1%

Average increase-23.6%2013-15 biennial increase-25.1%

Average increase-16.2%2013-15 biennial increase-38.7%

Average increase-20.6%2013-15 biennial increase-12.8%

8

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

9/25

$39,038.0

$43,236.0

$51,996.0

$57,675.0

$69,503.0

$80,037.0

$1,816.9 $2,000.5$2,574.3

$3,296.6

$4,236.7

$4,786.2

$0.0

$1,000.0

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$4,000.0

$5,000.0

$6,000.0

$7,000.0

$8,000.0

$9,000.0

$0.0

$10,000.0

$20,000.0

$30,000.0

$40,000.0

$50,000.0

$60,000.0

$70,000.0

$80,000.0

$90,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

MillionsMillions

Personal Income General Fund Appropriations

Appropr ia t ions Com par ison o f Genera l Fund Appropr ia t ions

and Tota l Personal Inc om e

Personal income -Cumulative percentageincrease 128.1%

Appropriations -Cumulative percentageincrease 176.9%

9

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

10/25

$364.0$389.6

$472.0

$593.4

$657.8

$912.6

$408.4

$491.1

$553.2

$634.6

$639.0

$686.5

$0.0

$100.0$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

$700.0

$800.0

$900.0

$1,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

General Fund Appropriations Tuition and Fee Revenue

Total$772.4

Total$880.7

Total$1,025.2

Total$1,227.9

Total$1,296.8

Total$1,599.1

Higher Educ at ion Genera l Fund Appropr ia t ions and

Tui t ion and St udent Fee Revenue

Average biennial tuition and feerevenue increase from 2003-05 to2013-15 is 11.2%

Average biennial general fund increase

from 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 16.2%

Governors recommendedgeneral fund increase is 38.7%

10

Executive

Budget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

11/25

35,910 35,511 35,585 38,232 38,896 39,057

$364.0 $389.6

$472.0

$593.3

$657.8

$912.6

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

$700.0

$800.0

$900.0

$1,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-1520,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Millions

Average Annual FTE Enrollment General Fund Appropriations

Higher Educ at ion Genera l Fund Appropria t ions

and Ful l -Tim e Equival ent (FTE) Enrol l m ent s

Average FTE enrollmentincrease from 2003-05 to2011-13 is 2.1%

Average biennial general fund increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 16.2%

Governors recommended

general fund increase is 38.7%

Projected enrollmentincrease is 0.4%

11

Executive

Budget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

12/25

$2,014

$2,413$2,588

$2,818 $2,959$3,107 $3,107 $3,107 $3,147 $3,187

$3,408

$3,996

$4,375$4,780

$5,019$5,270

$5,455$5,646

$5,964 $6,037

$2,628

$3,086$3,379

$3,701

$3,886 $4,080$4,223

$4,371$4,480

$4,592

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Two-Year Institutions Research Institutions Other Four-Year Institutions

Higher Educat ion Res ident Tu i t ion Rat es

Average annual increase-5.4%

Cumulative increase-58.3%

Average annual increase-6.7%

Cumulative increase-77.2%

Average annual increase-6.5%

Cumulative increase-74.7%12

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

13/25

$599.5 $631.0

$713.0

$1,106.7

$1,233.7

$1,031.5

$69.5 $71.6

$76.2

$86.3

$101.6

$140.3

$85.6

$26.2$4.2

$714.2

$0.0$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

$2,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Property tax relief

Federal and other special funds (fiscal stimulus in 2009-11; education jobs and oil impact in 2011-13)

State tuition fund

General fund - School aid and other general fund grants

Total$669.0

Total$702.6

Total$789.2

Total$1,282.8

Total$1,361.5

Total$1,886

K indergar t en Through Grade 12

St at e Sc hool Aid and Ot her Grant Funding

13

Average biennial total funds increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 21.5%

2013-15 biennial total

funds increase is 38.5%

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

14/25

9,159 9,1209,079

9,015

9,046 9,0839,228

9,264 9,3079,461

101,137

99,32497,120

95,600

94,05793,405

93,71594,729 95,778

99,192

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Teachers Student Enrollment

K indergar t en Through Grade 12

Teachers and St udent Enro l lment

Average annual personnelincrease from 2003-04 to

2012-13 is 0.36%

Average annual enrollmentdecrease from 2003-04 to

2012-13 is 0.2%

14

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

15/25

$1,508.9

$1,680.1$1,884.8

$2,290.4

$2,648.5

$2,790.5

$1,010.8$1,097.9

$1,184.6

$1,522.6$1,593.5

$1,488.8

$411.1 $484.4$593.9 $652.1

$941.0

$1,176.9

$87.0 $97.8 $106.3 $115.7 $114.0 $124.8

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Total Funds Federal Funds General Fund Special Funds

Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices

General Fund and Tot a l Funds Appropr iat ions

Average increase-15.2%2013-15 biennial increase-5.4%

Average increase-12.4%2013-15 biennial decrease-6.6%

Average increase-23.6%2013-15 biennial increase-25.1%

Average increase-7.1%2013-15 biennial increase-9.5%

15

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

16/25

$891.1

$989.1

$1,114.8

$1,362.2

$1,604.6

$1,751.8

$619.9 $675.4$740.7

$953.9 $969.1 $933.7

$271.3$313.8

$374.1$408.3

$635.5$818.1

$0.0$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0$1,800.0

$2,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Total Funds Federal and Other Funds General Fund

Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices Medica id Funding

Average biennial total funds increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 15.9%

Governors recommendedtotal funds increase is 9.2%

16

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

17/25

$318.4$343.0

$371.5

$425.7

$459.6$501.3

$190.6$211.7

$274.4

$341.5

$397.0

$502.4

$98.1$121.3

$153.2

$198.4

$239.9

$258.6

$48.3 $55.9

$59.9

$99.6 $104.7$121.6

$95.2 $66.3

$57.7 $50.9 $50.5 $44.9$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Nursing Homes Developmental Disabilities Hospitals Physicians Drugs

Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices Major Medica id Cost s

17

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

18/25

68.36% 68.31%67.49%

65.85%

64.72%63.75%

63.15% 63.01%

60.35%

55.40%

52.27%

50.00%

72.82%

67.49%

63.75%

69.95%

60.35%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

55.00%

60.00%

65.00%

70.00%

75.00%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FMAP Fiscal Relief FMAP Enhanced FMAP (ARRA)

The enhanced FMAP included in theAmerican Recovery and ReinvestmentAct of 2009 of 69.95% was effective for

the 2009 and 2010 federal fiscal yearsand the first quarter of the 2011 federalfiscal year. The enhanced FMAP wasreduced to 66.95% for the secondquarter of 2011 and to 64.95% for thethird quarter (which ended June 30,2011).

Depar tm ent o f Human Serv ices

Federal Medic al Ass is t anc e Perc ent age (FMAP)

In 2013 the FMAP will be the lowestsince 1979 when it was 50.71%.

18

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

19/25

$318.4

$343.0$371.5

$425.7$459.6

$501.3

$31.2

$37.7

$39.8

$63.9 $66.1$69.4

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

$700.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

MillionsMillions

Nursing Home Care Home and Community-Based Care

Depart m ent o f Human Services Nurs ing Home and

Home and Com m uni ty -Based Care Funding Tota l Funds

Average biennial increase from2003-05 to 2011-13 for home andcommunity-based care is 22.6%

Average biennial increase from2003-05 to 2011-13 for nursinghome care is 9.6%

Governors recommendedincrease for nursing homecare is 9.1%

Governors recommended increasefor home and community-based careis 4.9%

19

Executive

Budget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

20/25

$83.5

$105.2

$173.1 $167.1

$159.6

$180.0

1,295

1,405 1,445

1,478 1,490 1,484

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

$0.0

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

$140.0

$160.0

$180.0

$200.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

General Fund Appropriations

Average Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

Average biennial inmate count increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 3.6%

Depar tm ent o f Correc t ions and Rehabi l it a t ion

General Fund Appropr iat ions and Inmat e Count s

Average biennial generalfund increase from 2003-05to 2011-13 is 20.6%

Governors recommendedgeneral fund increase is 12.8%

Includes $41 million of one-timefunding for 2007-09 and $22.5 millionof one-time funding for 2009-11

20

Estimated inmate countdecrease is 0.4%

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

21/25

644.18677.28

711.29 735.29794.29 814.29

1,295

1,4051,445

1,478 1,490 1,484

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

FTE Positions

Average Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

Depar tm ent o f Correc t ions and Rehabi l it a t ion

FTE Posi t ions and Inm at e Count s

Average biennial inmate count increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 3.6%

Average biennial FTE position increasefrom 2003-05 to 2011-13 is 5.4%

Governors recommendedFTE position increase is 2.5%

21

Estimated inmate countdecrease is 0.4%

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

22/25

1,170

1,248 1,291

1,3091,326

1,322

125

157154 169 164 162

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Average Daily Female (Incarcerated) Count

Average Daily Male Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

Total1,295

Total1,405

Total1,445

Total1,478

Total1,490

Total1,484

Depar tm ent o f Correc t ions and Rehabi l it a t ion

Inmat e Count s

22

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

23/25

8,386.05 8,437.68

8,828.17

8,930.13

9,036.42

9,160.24

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

9,200

9,400

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Governors recommendedincrease is 123.82

St at e Em ployees Tot a l FTE Pos i t ions(Ex c lud ing H igher Educ at ion)

FTE positions increase from2003-05 to 2013-15 is 774.19

Increase of 390.49 includes 132.20added to the Department of HumanServices for state administration ofchild support

23

ExecutiveBudget

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

24/25

$638.3 $673.5$814.5

$1,205.4$1,461.9

$1,135.4$375.6$420.3

$507.8

$684.4

$1,054.5

$2,268.5

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

General Fund Appropriations

Special Funds Appropriations and Revenue Allocations

Major Di rect Ass is tanc e to Po l i t ic a l Subdiv is ions(Inc luding Sc hool-Relat ed Funding)

Total$1,013.9

Total$1,093.8

Total$1,889.8

Total$2,516.4

Total$1,322.3

24

ExecutiveBudget

Total$3,403.9

7/30/2019 North Dakota Budget And Fiscal Trends

25/25

$685.2 $722.2$800.6

$1,220.4$1,362.8

$1,902.5

$73.3 $83.9$103.5

$124.9 $207.6

$246.5

$109.0 $121.6$141.2

$153.7

$153.4

$190.9

$65.9 $76.9$107.6

$183.5

$274.0

$546.8

$35.0

$190.0

$142.0

$80.5 $89.2$169.4

$172.4

$328.7

$375.3

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13 2013-15

Millions

Other Appropriations and Revenue Allocations

Select Transportation Funding Distributions

Coal-Related and Oil-Related Taxes

Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax and Registration Fee Allocations

State Aid Distribution Funds

School-Related Funding (2009-11 and after include property tax relief)

Major Di rect Ass is tanc e to Po l i t ic a l Subdiv is ions(Inc luding Sc hool-Relat ed Funding)

Total$1,013.9

Total$1,093.8

Total$1,889.8

Total$3,403.9

Total$1,322.3

25

ExecutiveBudget

Total$2,516.4