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Reference series Composite leading indicators OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014 AREA TOTALS 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OECD Total 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Major Seven 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Major Five Asia 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Euro area 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 NAFTA 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Major Four Europe 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OECD Europe
Transcript
Page 1: Note sep14

Reference series Composite leading indicators

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

AREA TOTALS

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

OECD Total

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Major Seven

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Major Five Asia

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Euro area

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

NAFTA

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Major Four Europe

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

OECD Europe

Page 2: Note sep14

OECD Total

OECD + Major

6 Non Member

Countries

Major

Seven

Major Five

AsiaEuro Area NAFTA

Major Four

Europe

OECD

Europe

Amplitude adjusted (long term average =100)

August 2013 100.27 99.91 100.43 99.73 100.04 100.26 100.18 100.09

September 2013 100.36 99.97 100.51 99.73 100.24 100.27 100.38 100.26

October 2013 100.43 100.01 100.58 99.74 100.44 100.27 100.54 100.41

November 2013 100.49 100.03 100.62 99.73 100.61 100.25 100.66 100.53

December 2013 100.51 100.03 100.63 99.69 100.76 100.20 100.75 100.63

January 2014 100.51 100.01 100.61 99.62 100.88 100.15 100.81 100.70

February 2014 100.50 99.98 100.59 99.53 100.96 100.12 100.84 100.74

March 2014 100.51 99.97 100.59 99.45 101.01 100.16 100.85 100.77

April 2014 100.51 99.97 100.58 99.39 101.01 100.22 100.84 100.78

May 2014 100.50 99.99 100.56 99.36 100.97 100.31 100.79 100.76

June 2014 100.50 100.01 100.53 99.35 100.91 100.40 100.70 100.73

July 2014 100.49 100.04 100.49 99.37 100.83 100.51 100.58 100.67

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.09 0.05 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.02 0.20 0.17

September 2013 0.09 0.05 0.09 0.01 0.20 0.01 0.19 0.17

October 2013 0.07 0.04 0.07 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.16 0.15

November 2013 0.05 0.03 0.04 -0.01 0.17 -0.02 0.12 0.12

December 2013 0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.04 0.15 -0.05 0.09 0.10

January 2014 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.07 0.12 -0.06 0.06 0.07

February 2014 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02 -0.09 0.08 -0.02 0.03 0.05

March 2014 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.08 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.03

April 2014 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 0.00 0.07 -0.01 0.01

May 2014 0.00 0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 0.09 -0.05 -0.02

June 2014 0.00 0.02 -0.03 -0.01 -0.06 0.10 -0.09 -0.04

July 2014 -0.01 0.03 -0.04 0.02 -0.08 0.10 -0.12 -0.05

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.80 0.26 1.03 -0.16 1.22 0.53 1.22 0.97

September 2013 0.89 0.31 1.10 -0.15 1.51 0.50 1.44 1.18

October 2013 0.94 0.33 1.11 -0.16 1.72 0.43 1.57 1.33

November 2013 0.93 0.32 1.09 -0.20 1.85 0.34 1.62 1.41

December 2013 0.88 0.27 1.00 -0.27 1.91 0.20 1.62 1.44

January 2014 0.79 0.20 0.89 -0.36 1.91 0.07 1.58 1.43

February 2014 0.70 0.15 0.76 -0.43 1.87 -0.01 1.52 1.39

March 2014 0.63 0.15 0.66 -0.45 1.79 -0.01 1.44 1.34

April 2014 0.56 0.16 0.56 -0.44 1.67 0.05 1.33 1.26

May 2014 0.49 0.18 0.44 -0.41 1.49 0.11 1.16 1.14

June 2014 0.40 0.18 0.30 -0.39 1.26 0.19 0.91 0.97

July 2014 0.31 0.18 0.16 -0.36 0.99 0.26 0.60 0.76

8 September July 2014 OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

Page 3: Note sep14

Reference series Composite leading indicators

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

MAJOR SEVEN OECD COUNTRIES

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

United States

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Japan

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Germany

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

France

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Italy

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

United Kingdom

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Canada

Page 4: Note sep14

Canada United States Japan France Germany ItalyUnited

Kingdom

Amplitude adjusted (long term average =100)

August 2013 99.70 100.46 100.93 99.65 100.31 99.97 100.59

September 2013 99.80 100.46 101.10 99.84 100.49 100.17 100.80

October 2013 99.87 100.44 101.26 99.99 100.66 100.35 100.93

November 2013 99.90 100.42 101.38 100.11 100.80 100.51 101.02

December 2013 99.90 100.37 101.43 100.20 100.89 100.67 101.05

January 2014 99.88 100.31 101.38 100.26 100.93 100.85 101.05

February 2014 99.87 100.30 101.22 100.30 100.90 101.03 101.04

March 2014 99.88 100.34 100.99 100.32 100.82 101.21 101.03

April 2014 99.90 100.41 100.70 100.33 100.67 101.37 101.04

May 2014 99.93 100.49 100.40 100.32 100.47 101.48 101.02

June 2014 99.97 100.56 100.12 100.31 100.24 101.53 100.96

July 2014 100.02 100.62 99.86 100.29 99.98 101.54 100.84

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.11 0.02 0.15 0.19 0.18 0.23 0.23

September 2013 0.10 0.00 0.17 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.20

October 2013 0.07 -0.01 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.13

November 2013 0.03 -0.02 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.08

December 2013 0.00 -0.05 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.16 0.03

January 2014 -0.02 -0.06 -0.05 0.06 0.04 0.17 0.00

February 2014 -0.01 -0.01 -0.15 0.04 -0.02 0.18 -0.01

March 2014 0.01 0.04 -0.23 0.02 -0.09 0.18 0.00

April 2014 0.02 0.07 -0.29 0.01 -0.14 0.16 0.01

May 2014 0.03 0.07 -0.30 -0.01 -0.20 0.11 -0.02

June 2014 0.04 0.07 -0.28 -0.01 -0.24 0.06 -0.07

July 2014 0.04 0.07 -0.26 -0.02 -0.26 0.01 -0.11

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.06 0.88 1.45 0.10 1.64 1.75 1.33

September 2013 0.20 0.82 1.69 0.41 1.93 1.99 1.35

October 2013 0.30 0.71 1.87 0.67 2.07 2.15 1.31

November 2013 0.36 0.59 1.96 0.85 2.07 2.25 1.28

December 2013 0.38 0.45 1.91 0.97 1.96 2.30 1.25

January 2014 0.39 0.30 1.71 1.07 1.76 2.35 1.22

February 2014 0.41 0.19 1.35 1.14 1.52 2.38 1.20

March 2014 0.46 0.16 0.90 1.19 1.27 2.40 1.17

April 2014 0.51 0.16 0.40 1.19 1.00 2.36 1.13

May 2014 0.52 0.15 -0.08 1.14 0.66 2.23 1.02

June 2014 0.49 0.16 -0.51 1.01 0.27 2.04 0.80

July 2014 0.44 0.18 -0.92 0.83 -0.15 1.80 0.48

8 September July 2014 OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

Page 5: Note sep14

Reference series Composite leading indicators

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

OTHER OECD COUNTRIES

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Chile

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Mexico

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Korea

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Australia

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

New Zealand

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Israel

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Austria

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Belgium

Page 6: Note sep14

Chile Mexico Korea AustraliaNew

ZealandIsrael Austria Belgium

Amplitude adjusted (long term average =100)

August 2013 99.92 98.77 100.61 99.87 101.40 99.77 100.02 99.92

September 2013 99.75 98.78 100.58 99.94 101.59 99.76 100.17 100.16

October 2013 99.56 98.84 100.59 99.99 101.77 99.77 100.30 100.38

November 2013 99.37 98.85 100.63 100.03 101.89 99.82 100.41 100.55

December 2013 99.21 98.78 100.69 100.03 101.94 99.89 100.47 100.67

January 2014 99.17 98.68 100.77 100.00 101.90 100.01 100.50 100.73

February 2014 99.24 98.58 100.85 99.92 101.77 100.11 100.50 100.73

March 2014 99.30 98.54 100.90 99.82 101.59 100.16 100.47 100.71

April 2014 99.33 98.60 100.92 99.74 101.35 100.14 100.40 100.67

May 2014 99.33 98.83 100.92 99.68 101.10 100.00 100.31 100.62

June 2014 99.32 99.22 100.89 99.64 100.86 99.80 100.19 100.54

July 2014 99.35 99.69 100.86 99.60 100.63 99.56 100.06 100.47

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013 -0.14 -0.05 -0.02 0.05 0.19 -0.05 0.14 0.24

September 2013 -0.17 0.01 -0.02 0.06 0.19 -0.02 0.15 0.24

October 2013 -0.18 0.05 0.01 0.06 0.17 0.02 0.13 0.22

November 2013 -0.19 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.13 0.04 0.11 0.17

December 2013 -0.16 -0.07 0.06 0.00 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.12

January 2014 -0.04 -0.11 0.08 -0.03 -0.04 0.11 0.03 0.05

February 2014 0.07 -0.10 0.08 -0.08 -0.12 0.10 0.00 0.00

March 2014 0.06 -0.04 0.06 -0.09 -0.19 0.05 -0.03 -0.02

April 2014 0.02 0.06 0.02 -0.08 -0.23 -0.02 -0.07 -0.04

May 2014 0.01 0.24 -0.01 -0.06 -0.25 -0.13 -0.09 -0.05

June 2014 -0.01 0.40 -0.03 -0.05 -0.24 -0.21 -0.12 -0.07

July 2014 0.03 0.47 -0.03 -0.04 -0.23 -0.24 -0.13 -0.07

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.57 -2.30 1.34 -0.38 2.25 -0.03 0.47 0.54

September 2013 0.39 -2.08 1.25 -0.33 2.40 0.04 0.76 0.93

October 2013 0.11 -1.95 1.17 -0.24 2.43 0.08 0.97 1.30

November 2013 -0.21 -2.02 1.10 -0.14 2.34 0.08 1.09 1.61

December 2013 -0.52 -2.17 1.03 -0.05 2.16 0.04 1.09 1.81

January 2014 -0.71 -2.24 0.95 0.01 1.88 0.01 1.02 1.89

February 2014 -0.74 -2.18 0.83 0.01 1.56 0.03 0.92 1.86

March 2014 -0.78 -1.94 0.68 -0.04 1.17 0.06 0.83 1.75

April 2014 -0.81 -1.38 0.52 -0.09 0.72 0.08 0.73 1.58

May 2014 -0.84 -0.58 0.37 -0.13 0.27 0.02 0.60 1.36

June 2014 -0.82 0.23 0.27 -0.17 -0.16 -0.10 0.42 1.09

July 2014 -0.70 0.88 0.24 -0.23 -0.57 -0.26 0.18 0.79

8 September July 2014 OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

Page 7: Note sep14

Reference series Composite leading indicators

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

OTHER OECD COUNTRIES

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Czech Republic

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Denmark

86889092949698

100102104106108110

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Estonia

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Finland

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Greece

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Hungary

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Ireland

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Luxembourg

Page 8: Note sep14

Czech

RepublicDenmark Estonia Finland Greece Hungary Ireland Luxembourg

Amplitude adjusted (long term average =100)

August 2013 99.32 100.09 99.64 100.23 99.78 98.96 101.06 100.11

September 2013 99.75 100.29 100.22 100.40 99.87 98.91 101.13 100.33

October 2013 100.21 100.48 100.65 100.57 100.07 98.88 101.17 100.52

November 2013 100.66 100.61 100.83 100.78 100.38 98.88 101.22 100.67

December 2013 101.04 100.69 100.80 100.97 100.78 98.94 101.29 100.78

January 2014 101.34 100.72 100.67 101.12 101.27 99.06 101.35 100.83

February 2014 101.52 100.72 100.57 101.23 101.79 99.24 101.33 100.82

March 2014 101.59 100.67 100.58 101.30 102.28 99.41 101.19 100.76

April 2014 101.57 100.59 100.75 101.35 102.50 99.55 100.93 100.67

May 2014 101.50 100.48 101.00 101.38 102.70 99.62 100.56 100.55

June 2014 101.41 100.35 101.38 101.40 102.93 99.63 100.16 100.39

July 2014 101.32 100.23 101.88 101.38 103.18 99.66 99.83 100.22

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.37 0.22 0.57 0.18 -0.02 -0.05 0.10 0.21

September 2013 0.43 0.21 0.58 0.17 0.09 -0.04 0.07 0.21

October 2013 0.46 0.18 0.43 0.18 0.20 -0.03 0.04 0.19

November 2013 0.45 0.13 0.18 0.20 0.31 0.00 0.05 0.16

December 2013 0.39 0.08 -0.03 0.19 0.40 0.06 0.07 0.10

January 2014 0.29 0.03 -0.13 0.16 0.49 0.13 0.06 0.05

February 2014 0.18 -0.01 -0.10 0.11 0.52 0.18 -0.03 -0.01

March 2014 0.07 -0.05 0.01 0.07 0.48 0.18 -0.14 -0.05

April 2014 -0.02 -0.08 0.17 0.04 0.21 0.13 -0.25 -0.09

May 2014 -0.07 -0.11 0.25 0.04 0.19 0.07 -0.36 -0.13

June 2014 -0.09 -0.13 0.38 0.01 0.23 0.02 -0.41 -0.16

July 2014 -0.09 -0.12 0.49 -0.02 0.24 0.02 -0.32 -0.17

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.85 0.94 0.28 2.01 2.41 -0.73 0.93 1.09

September 2013 1.38 1.19 1.30 2.19 2.46 -0.82 0.92 1.43

October 2013 1.91 1.35 2.09 2.33 2.55 -0.95 0.90 1.69

November 2013 2.39 1.44 2.39 2.43 2.61 -1.04 0.89 1.84

December 2013 2.80 1.49 2.41 2.46 2.64 -1.00 0.93 1.89

January 2014 3.10 1.50 2.09 2.41 2.68 -0.81 0.99 1.83

February 2014 3.30 1.48 1.82 2.29 2.76 -0.48 0.93 1.69

March 2014 3.34 1.38 1.73 2.14 2.86 -0.11 0.71 1.51

April 2014 3.25 1.21 1.93 1.96 2.80 0.22 0.36 1.29

May 2014 3.04 0.97 2.26 1.77 2.86 0.44 -0.11 1.01

June 2014 2.76 0.68 2.66 1.55 3.07 0.56 -0.66 0.68

July 2014 2.39 0.37 2.84 1.32 3.39 0.65 -1.12 0.32

8 September July 2014 OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

Page 9: Note sep14

Reference series Composite leading indicators

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

OTHER OECD COUNTRIES

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Netherlands

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Norway

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Poland

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Portugal

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Slovak Republic

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Slovenia

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Spain

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Sweden

Page 10: Note sep14

Netherlands Norway Poland PortugalSlovak

RepublicSlovenia Spain Sweden

Amplitude adjusted (long term average =100)

August 2013 99.67 100.08 100.47 99.55 99.28 98.90 100.40 98.44

September 2013 99.83 100.21 100.58 99.98 99.56 98.94 100.70 98.37

October 2013 99.98 100.35 100.65 100.48 99.89 99.04 101.01 98.40

November 2013 100.10 100.47 100.69 101.01 100.23 99.26 101.30 98.51

December 2013 100.18 100.56 100.71 101.53 100.56 99.58 101.58 98.65

January 2014 100.24 100.59 100.71 101.98 100.83 99.99 101.84 98.81

February 2014 100.29 100.55 100.70 102.25 101.03 100.41 102.06 98.99

March 2014 100.32 100.43 100.67 102.33 101.15 100.87 102.24 99.22

April 2014 100.32 100.27 100.62 102.22 101.22 101.40 102.38 99.53

May 2014 100.31 100.10 100.59 102.00 101.23 101.98 102.48 99.88

June 2014 100.27 99.94 100.58 101.73 101.23 102.56 102.55 100.28

July 2014 100.21 99.78 100.60 101.46 101.21 103.08 102.61 100.70

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.16 0.12 0.16 0.35 0.24 0.02 0.29 -0.14

September 2013 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.44 0.28 0.04 0.30 -0.08

October 2013 0.15 0.14 0.07 0.50 0.33 0.11 0.30 0.03

November 2013 0.12 0.13 0.04 0.53 0.35 0.22 0.29 0.11

December 2013 0.08 0.09 0.02 0.52 0.32 0.33 0.28 0.14

January 2014 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.44 0.27 0.41 0.25 0.16

February 2014 0.04 -0.05 0.00 0.27 0.20 0.42 0.22 0.18

March 2014 0.03 -0.11 -0.03 0.08 0.12 0.46 0.17 0.24

April 2014 0.01 -0.16 -0.05 -0.10 0.06 0.52 0.13 0.30

May 2014 -0.02 -0.17 -0.03 -0.22 0.02 0.58 0.10 0.35

June 2014 -0.04 -0.17 -0.01 -0.26 0.00 0.56 0.07 0.40

July 2014 -0.06 -0.16 0.02 -0.27 -0.02 0.51 0.06 0.42

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.75 -0.02 1.08 2.42 0.61 0.83 1.58 -2.18

September 2013 0.97 0.14 1.24 2.80 1.01 1.09 1.95 -2.15

October 2013 1.15 0.29 1.34 3.23 1.42 1.25 2.29 -1.95

November 2013 1.27 0.44 1.36 3.64 1.83 1.33 2.59 -1.63

December 2013 1.31 0.56 1.35 4.00 2.19 1.39 2.83 -1.27

January 2014 1.30 0.63 1.32 4.23 2.47 1.46 3.01 -0.90

February 2014 1.27 0.63 1.26 4.27 2.64 1.58 3.12 -0.53

March 2014 1.23 0.57 1.13 4.11 2.72 1.87 3.13 -0.12

April 2014 1.17 0.45 0.94 3.76 2.71 2.37 3.07 0.39

May 2014 1.06 0.28 0.70 3.30 2.59 3.03 2.92 0.95

June 2014 0.91 0.06 0.47 2.81 2.42 3.69 2.73 1.55

July 2014 0.70 -0.18 0.29 2.28 2.20 4.25 2.50 2.15

8 September July 2014 OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

Page 11: Note sep14

Reference series Composite leading indicators

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

May 2014

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

OTHER OECD COUNTRIES

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Switzerland

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Turkey

Page 12: Note sep14

Switzerland Turkey

Amplitude adjusted (long term average =100)

August 2013 100.11 99.89

September 2013 100.26 99.75

October 2013 100.37 99.57

November 2013 100.42 99.32

December 2013 100.41 99.03

January 2014 100.35 98.75

February 2014 100.25 98.56

March 2014 100.10 98.52

April 2014 99.94 98.61

May 2014 99.81 98.77

June 2014 99.72 98.96

July 2014 99.65 99.13

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.15 -0.17

September 2013 0.15 -0.14

October 2013 0.11 -0.18

November 2013 0.05 -0.25

December 2013 -0.02 -0.29

January 2014 -0.06 -0.29

February 2014 -0.10 -0.19

March 2014 -0.15 -0.04

April 2014 -0.15 0.09

May 2014 -0.13 0.17

June 2014 -0.10 0.18

July 2014 -0.07 0.18

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013 0.23 -0.52

September 2013 0.30 -0.60

October 2013 0.38 -0.72

November 2013 0.41 -0.95

December 2013 0.40 -1.26

January 2014 0.35 -1.62

February 2014 0.29 -1.89

March 2014 0.20 -1.98

April 2014 0.10 -1.86

May 2014 -0.01 -1.59

June 2014 -0.14 -1.27

July 2014 -0.31 -0.92

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

Page 13: Note sep14

Reference series Composite leading indicators

April 2014

May 2014

June 2014

July 2014

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013

September 2013

October 2013

November 2013

December 2013

January 2014

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

* The reference series for China is the Index of Industrial Production.

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014

MAJOR NON MEMBER COUNTRIES

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Brazil

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

China *

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

India

889092949698

100102104106108110

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

Indonesia

889092949698

100102104106108110

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Russia

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

South Africa

Page 14: Note sep14

Brasil China India Indonnesia Russia South Africa

Amplitude adjusted (long term average =100)

August 2013 98.92 99.69 98.24 99.18 99.09 100.59

September 2013 98.89 99.69 98.19 98.81 99.20 100.57

October 2013 98.89 99.67 98.17 98.54 99.30 100.53

November 2013 98.89 99.62 98.17 98.39 99.38 100.47

December 2013 98.88 99.51 98.20 98.33 99.46 100.41

January 2014 98.84 99.35 98.26 98.35 99.54 100.31

February 2014 98.80 99.18 98.35 98.40 99.63 100.16

March 2014 98.79 99.05 98.46 98.47 99.75 99.96

April 2014 98.83 98.98 98.59 98.54 99.90 99.73

May 2014 98.93 98.97 98.73 98.59 100.06 99.47

June 2014 99.12 98.99 98.87 98.62 100.21 99.17

July 2014 99.41 99.08 99.01 98.62 100.33 98.88

Month on Month growth rate (%)

August 2013 -0.09 0.01 -0.07 -0.46 0.10 -0.01

September 2013 -0.03 0.01 -0.05 -0.38 0.11 -0.02

October 2013 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.27 0.10 -0.04

November 2013 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.15 0.08 -0.05

December 2013 -0.02 -0.11 0.03 -0.06 0.08 -0.07

January 2014 -0.04 -0.16 0.06 0.02 0.08 -0.09

February 2014 -0.04 -0.17 0.09 0.06 0.10 -0.15

March 2014 -0.02 -0.13 0.11 0.07 0.12 -0.20

April 2014 0.04 -0.07 0.13 0.07 0.15 -0.24

May 2014 0.11 -0.01 0.14 0.05 0.16 -0.25

June 2014 0.19 0.02 0.14 0.03 0.15 -0.31

July 2014 0.29 0.09 0.14 0.00 0.12 -0.30

Year on Year growth rate (%)

August 2013 -1.46 -0.40 -1.33 -1.17 -0.98 0.30

September 2013 -1.57 -0.43 -1.28 -1.74 -0.67 0.16

October 2013 -1.62 -0.50 -1.20 -2.21 -0.41 -0.01

November 2013 -1.62 -0.60 -1.08 -2.52 -0.19 -0.17

December 2013 -1.59 -0.76 -0.93 -2.68 0.00 -0.31

January 2014 -1.51 -0.92 -0.74 -2.72 0.19 -0.44

February 2014 -1.37 -1.00 -0.53 -2.68 0.41 -0.57

March 2014 -1.16 -0.97 -0.29 -2.53 0.66 -0.73

April 2014 -0.86 -0.86 -0.03 -2.28 0.91 -0.92

May 2014 -0.50 -0.75 0.23 -1.94 1.14 -1.13

June 2014 -0.06 -0.68 0.48 -1.51 1.29 -1.42

July 2014 0.41 -0.60 0.71 -1.02 1.35 -1.71

8 September July 2014 OECD Composite Leading Indicators 8 September July 2014


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